Archie Lee

Where this argument falls apart I think, is that there are lots of good NHL players who don’t have trade protection. Also, there are lots who will sign with the Sabres as UFAs (in my opinion). Adams traded for Tuch, Greenway, McLeod and has signed Clifton and Zucker as UFAs. Maybe these aren’t star players, but they are solid to good players all of whom played playoff games before coming to the Sabres. Had Adams made 3-4 additional moves for players in this category between June 2023 and August 2024, we would be in a different place in my view. If Adams can’t give money away, it is a problem of his own making. He waited too long to make meaningful moves and the team has regressed back to where it was when he fired Krueger.

Here is something that people might find interesting re: who Power and Byram get paired with. This is according to Dobber Line Combinations. Byram’s primary even strength partner this year is Dahlin at 442 minutes. Second for Byram is Power at 221 minutes. Power’s most common partner? Byram. That’s how we treat our 21 year old 1st OA. That’s how we protect our young kids. Power’s partner is an afterthought. He has never had a partner.

I think there was an obvious pivot point for Adams and the franchise and that was the summer of 2023. Whether "the plan" to that point had been successful due to smart decisions or luck, it is nonetheless the case that they did manage to get to 91 points and play better than Deluca .500 hockey. Any culture of winning that had developed, though, was first stunted by Adams doing next to nothing in the summer of 2023, and then obliterated by him rolling back the same core of young players in the summer of 2024, to inhabit the most important roles on the team. Adams either outright misjudged the skill and readiness of his young talent, or he failed to create the proper environment for continued growth (or both). Regardless, the level of failure is enormous.

The team needs a culture change. The little play within the play that is emblematic of the Sabres occurred with just under 4 minutes to go. The Sabres are down 1 and on the PP. The puck is in Calgary’s end and squirts up the wall to Wolf’s right. Thompson and Pelletier have a brief puck battle. Thompson chooses the wrong side of the puck and makes no attempt to utilize his 7” and 40lb size advantage and is easily outmuscled for the puck and Pelletier clears it down the ice. Again and again we lose these small battles that make a difference in games. I don’t know the answer. I don’t want a tear down. There is no player that I wouldn’t consider dealing in a hockey trade, but moving any youngish established player (Dahlin, Thompson, Tuch, etc) for futures would be beyond crazy. Ruff is not the answer. The mistakes we saw from Dahlin, Thompson, and Power tonight, were the kind of mistakes that we did see from Eichel and Reinhart when they were here. Every player makes mistakes, but we do not seem to be able to bring in the right coach to establish that such mistakes are not acceptable. Early in Cassidy’s time in Vegas, he called out Eichel for poor efforts. Adams can’t return. A new GM has to get a chance to establish a new culture with new coaches and some strategic roster moves. If Adams is back then there is no reason to expect anything but a minor variation on what we have seen this season.

The Sabres are getting good offensive value out of their top 3 d-men. There are 3 teams in the league, Colorado, Columbus, and Vegas, whose top 3 scoring D have combined to produce more points this year than Dahlin, Byram, Power. I think you can keep all 3. I think we need to pair one of Byram or Power with Dahlin and find a stable veteran D to pair with the other (Cody Ceci was available this off-season and, occasional mind-cramp aside, would have been a good partner for Power or Byram). Maybe Samuelsson can still be that guy. He has perhaps been our most disappointing player. I also think that our coaching, including head coaching, is below average. Dean Evason, with a couple of different assistants, would have been a better choice, after an actual coaching search.

I agree that we don't need a blockbuster trade. The reality though is that our young, under 24, players, would not return a star player. Power would be the exception I think. One for one, our young players would return the medium range veteran talents that you refer to. The Capitals are a veteran team with two players on their roster who were under 24 to start the season. There is no room to bolster your roster with medium range veterans, while also giving meaningful ice time to 6-7 forwards under 24.

I agree with you that Power is very likely to go on to go great things in the league. I also agree with an earlier comment you made, in a different thread I think, that rather than trade players like Cozens and Power we should try supporting them. But, to add impact players of a certain age, experience, and skill-set, means giving up assets that are valuable. We are not likely to acquire an impact veteran player without trading one or two players from our highest end of young assets (Power, Cozens, Byram, Peterka, Benson, Quinn, Kulich, Helenius, 1st rd pick). There is no player in that group who I want to see go, and we all have our untouchables or prefer not to trade players. But in the right trade for the right veteran…

Sorry to have come across as taking issue with your post. I take no issue with it. I just disagree with your view that UPL has "tended to spit the bit" when challenged. I would argue that every effort was made to give the job to Levi last season and that the net was never UPL's until UPL won the job. I would argue that once he won the job, as a young goalie without a long-term contract, his position was always precarious. I would argue that the Sabres starting this past season by rotating UPL and Levi, made pretty clear that the organization still saw them as equals or close to equals. Your view is that UPL only started to play well this year when (because?) Levi played poorly. I don't see it that way. I think UPL is a young goalie who since getting to the NHL has been under constant pressure to win and keep a position (like probably all young NHL goalies). One might argue that there has not been "legitimate" competition for the starting position since UPL arrived in the NHL and that the only player to step up and take the starting role has been UPL.

I like Kulich and Kozak (and Krebs) and I am excited about their futures. So, I am not criticizing the original post or dismissing the notion that these players will potentially be important pieces going forward. I just think this is similar to what we did with Cozens when he was 19-21 (and Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Power, Levi). When a young player has a good game or does something well, we tend to project a near future where they continue to do that thing well and them building on it by improving in other areas. That next level of improvement doesn't always happen though, or it doesn't happen as quicky as hoped/needed, or the development isn't linear. I'm not advocating for the trade of any specific young player. However, unless we are prepared to be content with awaiting the year where through patience alone the team's combined level of talent, age, and experience, reaches a critical mass that pushes us into the playoffs, then some of these young guys need to be traded.

I think as general statements, all that you say here is fair and accurate. But, I also think it is a touch (just a touch) dismissive of how bad our environment is for goalies. Just take the end of last night’s game and the save that UPL had to make with 2 seconds left (on a scoring chance that never should have occurred). It’s fair to say that #1 goalies do make saves like that. Game to game though, you really can’t expect a goalie to continually bail you out. UPL, and Levi and Reimer, play in an NHL environment where the onslaught is coming at some point, or at multiple points, almost every game. That’s tough. And if you have a stretch where for any reason you aren’t at your best, the results are going to be bad.

We have some young centres who are better at face-offs than the Thompson/Cozens/Mitts trio. Krebs has been good through the year. McLeod also. Kulich’s % on the night and year is not great, but he won two important face-offs cleanly. Face-offs in general have been a rare area of improvement this year.

Went to bed after 2 and just finished watching P3. Kulich was fantastic. Not just in the goals but on the draw. Faceoffs matter when they matter and he won the faceoffs leading to goal 3 and leading to getting the puck out cleanly with seconds left (though we still gave up a scoring chance). Over the course of the season we are seeing young players take turns showing us what they might be. Nothing shocking about the fact they have not been able to sustain their higher levels of play. Factor in that there are so many young players on the team and it is not a surprise we are out of it again. Prepare for the spin that “We knew it was always a possibility it would be a tough year” and that “We need to remain patient and trust the process”.

I continue to find it incredible that it has just become an accepted part of the game that a stick is likely to break at an inopportune moment.

Agreed on Levi. I’m not out on him by any means. There is still some runway. I hope he goes back to Rochester and takes them on a long playoff run. In the off-season, hopefully a new GM gets a chance to objectively evaluate our goalie depth and make a determination on whether a vet needs to be brought in to challenge for one of the spots on the NHL roster. The environment in Buffalo has not been great for a goalie, let alone a young one. Right now, the goalie from our recent past that Levi most closely resembles (to me), is Carter Hutton. His size forces him to be active. Being active can take him out of position. As you state, traffic pushes him deep, makes him small and susceptible to screens and deflections. I’m not sure he has the raw athleticism of a Saros, that will allow him to overcome this. I think he plays in the NHL. I don’t think he is the answer as a longterm #1.

My opinion is that your view of the pressure that a young goalie might, or might not, experience based on circumstance and personality, is faulty. The idea that the pressure comes off when the net is empty is flawed I think. But who knows what an individual player experiences. I recall, not from you, many “good riddance” posts when Ullmark left. UPL is tied with Ville Husso as the 20th highest paid goalie. 2-3 years from now I think his deal will be a bargain, whether for us or for the team we trade him to. His save % on the year is in the same zip code of Bobrovsky, Swayman, and Binnington. The Sabres are awful. Terribly managed. Too young. Poorly constructed. Below average coaching. UPL is not above criticism. But there is so much wrong with this organization before we get to UPL.

In an April 2023 Athletic Article (I’m not good with links), Adams addressed the topic of whether Levi would benefit from time in the minors (this was at the end of 22-23, after Levi signed and played well down the stretch). Adams said every player is different. He doesn’t want to put a player in a box. That he planned to be fearless with roster decisions. And that in Levi he saw a special person with a special work ethic and special talent. This is not a shot against Levi. I think he is a good young goalie with NHL potential who is always brought up to the Sabres in saviour moments. Like all of our young players, he has repeatedly been placed in a position to fail. Adams could not have been more wrong on his evaluation(s). He can’t continue as GM. If he does, there is simply no reason to think he has the ability to fix this.

This morning, per MoneyPuck, in goals saved above expected, he is 21st out of 27 goalies who have played at least 25 games. Interestingly, the 3 goalies who are directly behind him in this statistic are Skinner, Swayman, and Bobrovsky and right in front of him is Sorokin; historical Cup and/or Vezina contenders. So, he is keeping good company in this area.

The Flames are the anti-Sabres. They have so many quality veteran NHL players (not stars, just guys who are experienced and capable), that they can't lose for trying.

Last season, during his 6-7 game stretch with the Sabres, Rosen's most common linemates were Olofsson, Jost, and Biro. Matt Coranato was selected by Calgary one spot ahead of Rosen. When the Flames promoted him to the NHL last year, they pretty much always had him with Backlund, or Coleman, or Kadri, or Huberdeau, or two of them. This year he is playing with Backlund and Coleman. When we recalled Rosen for one game this year, we played him with Cozens and Benson.

I think this is important. As fans, we generally recognized what a sham the coaching search and hire was (regardless of anyone's affection for Ruff's historical contributions to the team, which I share). The players almost certainly saw this also. The modern NHL player has been well-trained in media-speak and to not say anything controversial. The players all have friends on other teams and they have eyes and brains. They know how a well-run NHL team is managed and they know how the Sabres are managed. Honestly, I'm at the point of thinking the players deserve credit for appearing to still care as much as they do.

I think it is fair to say UPL has become part of the problem as the season has rolled along. How many players that were slotted into top 9 roles and our top 2 defensive pairings to start the year, could we say have not been part of the problem? Zucker and Greenway? Maybe Benson, who has been mostly the same player he was a year ago; and it was never really reasonable to think Benson would be better than he is at this stage. I don't think it is fair to say that any player on this team could not be part of the solution. I'm not directing this at you @K-9. But it is worth the reminder, perhaps, that we started this supposedly make or break playoff year with the youngest line-up in the league. Our second line was average age 22 years and 1 month; and we had a 22 year old (Peterka) on line 1. Our top 4-D were average age 23 years and 9 months; and we had a 24 year old making $4 million on pair 3 (Samuelsson). Our 2 goalies to start the year? Average age: 24 years and 2 months. All together, average age of those key positions: 23 years and 4 months. Just take Dallas's defense for a moment. They have 3 young players: Heiskanen (25), Harley (23) and Lundqvist (24). We could reasonably compare them in pedigree, status and ability to Dahlin (24), Byram (23) and Jokiharju (24). We round out our top 6 with Power (21), Samuelsson (24), Clifton (29). Dallas rounds out their top 6 with Lindell, Dumba, and Lyubushkin, all 30 years of age. You can apply the same to their forwards and who they are supporting their youth with. Don't get me started on coaching. It was just not realistic that our current group of players at their current level of age and experience, were going to be a playoff team. UPL is part of that. It is reasonable for us to have high expectations for individual players, like UPL, who have been given long-term and big money extensions. Collectively though, in Adams's commitment to youth and to keeping nearly everyone, he has failed to properly support his young players and position them for success. This is all on the GM level and above.

I’m not great with links. But lots of reporting that Canucks are working hard to move Miller soon.

Yes, such trades are rare and are not likely to occur.

Agreed. That is certainly why you don’t trade it for less than value. Pettersson was a top 5. Also, the Sabres have 5 top 10 picks on their roster including 3 D-men drafted in the top 4 (two at 1OA).

UPL, like 80% of the roster, has not been good enough this year, relative to expectation. Like most players on the team, he would benefit from being in a better environment, surrounded by better players and coaching. We are not talented enough as a team to overcome our deficiencies (youth, inexperience, lack of “grit”, below average coaching in my view). UPL’s game has suffered because of this. He certainly bares some responsibility, but there is almost nobody on our roster who is truly thriving. Re: xga stats, I think they are meaningful, but they will generally not account for all factors. For example, unless I’m mistaken, they don’t account for volume of shots in a period of time. 25 shots spread over a game might result in an xga of 2.04. Take those exact same 25 shots and put them in a 20 minute period and the xga is the same (I think, somebody correct me if I’m wrong on that). But they are not the same thing. Bad teams put their goalies in bad positions more frequently and for longer and more intense durations.