Archie Lee

So long as you have a chance to get in the playoffs, I think you are doing your fans a disservice to not play to win. I grew up with a 16-21 team NHL. In those days 12-16 teams (75%) made the playoffs but in any given year there were probably 2-4 teams that had a legitimate shot and most years there was a clear favourite (MTL, NYI, EDM). Making the playoffs and winning a round, or even two rounds in the old Norris Division, was not that great an accomplishment. Today, with 32 teams and 50% making the playoffs and 8-10 teams with a legit chance to win, I think making the playoffs is an accomplishment and winning a round is a significant accomplishment. Pittsburgh is not likely to beat Boston or Carolina (though the Canes are a little vulnerable, in my view), but upsets do happen. I look forward to the Sabres having a 6-7 year run as a legit top 5 contender followed by a 3-4 year period where we wonder if it is time to start it over again. I say ride the pony as long as it will run. Rebuilds can always be started tomorrow.

What lifestyle?

I wasn't making any predictions, but fair enough. I was probably overly exuberant in using the words "would likely get us in" and should have used "could possibly get us in".

You are right that it makes no sense because my math was wrong. It will take a 9-2 finish, not 8-3. Not sure what the "apples to apples" reference is getting at.

NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said in the last day or two that the NHL has "no information that would suggest there is any material threat that would exist related to a Russian player participating in a club's Pride activities".

Pittsburgh is in WC2 by points and points %. The Penguins are on pace for 91 points. Incredibly, if the Sabres win tonight in regulation they would be in a position where a 7-3 finish over the final 10 would project them into a tie for WC1. Put another way, an 8-3 finish from here would likely get us in. EDIT: Also, incredibly, my math was wrong. It would take a 9-2 finish from here.

Fair enough. I’m not defending how Adams has handled the goaltending situation. My position 2 years ago was that the Demko deal (5x5) was what it would take to get Ullmark signed and I still think that was true and what should have happened long before Ullmark got to free agency. I just think that, right or wrong, the timeline that the organization is on is not the same as the timeline most of us fans would like to see them commit to. I don’t see though that they consider top-level goaltending as non-essential to our future success.

This does not really align though, with the fact that Levi has been a clear centrepiece of Adams’ rebuild. It remains to be seen what Levi will do for the team in either the near or distant future, but Adams clearly thinks he has a special player. If you could get Adams in a candid moment and ask him to reveal the most important and vital player acquisition he has made, I would guess he would say it is Levi.

We have won lots of games this year where our goalies were the difference on the positive side. We do not have goalies though who will allow you to consistently just trade chances with the opposition. Nashville’s 3rd goal last night was a great example of what we have been seeing since the break. We score to get back in it and immediately lose all patience; Joker makes an ill-advised pinch, Okposo fails to properly cover and Stillman gives up the centre of the ice and its 3-1 and really the game is over. Sure, Anderson could make the save (and we should expect our goalies to) but this team gives up way too many uncontested opportunities. I don’t care what the analytics say, there is a difference between a slot shot where the shooter is hurried by a defender and one where the shooter has time to pick his spot. We give up more of the latter than any of the teams we play and until that’s fixed we will need Hasek level goaltending to be a winning team.

I would say playoffs should be the goal. I don’t think they will make this their explicit goal though, at least not in the way fans would be looking for. While I think they will play every game to win with the lineup that they have, as they did this year, I don’t think they will move out any potential long term pieces for the sort of players who would clearly signal they have now changed their approach. I also don’t see us being significant players in free agency. if anything, I think we will continue to be the NHL’s youngest team and with the departure of Anderson and Okposo we will be younger than this year’s team. I could see us starting the year with 5-6 rookies on the roster (Levi, Johnson, Kulich, Savoie, and a couple of older Rochester guys like Biro and Rousek). There will still be opportunity there for us to get incrementally better due internal development. Based on recent history though, I will be surprised if the team makes moves that clearly change the direction towards improvement via the acquisition of experienced players.

I don’t mean this as a criticism of Adams. I think he is good though at changing the narrative to spin things positively. None of us are eager to give up Savoie or Kulich. The post-deadline narrative became that Arizona wanted more from us than they got from Ottawa. The implication was that Arizona asked for a high end prospect like Savoie or Kulich and these players were non-starters for the Sabres. What was not clear or addressed, from what I saw, is if Arizona was willing to take our 2023 1st instead of Savoie or Kulich. If so, then that is a bit of a different story. If Arizona’s ask was a 2023 1st or Savoie or Kulich and two 2nds, then they wanted basically the same thing from us and we were not willing to pay the price.

I think our goaltending has been average. According to Money Puck, in all situations the Sabres are 26th in goals against and 28th in expected goals against. Our goalies have allowed about as many goals as expected given the scoring opportunities we give up. In my opinion: - Anderson has exceeded expectations and has been good - UPL has met expectations and shown he has the physical tools to be an NHL goalie; he needs to be more consistent and that will hopefully come with experience - Comrie has been bad and disappointing, even in the context of low expectations and an injury. My guess is that Levi will dress as a back-up once or twice before he starts a game. Up to the Dallas game I was convinced that Levi would start next season in Rochester and that UPL/Comrie would start next season as the NHL tandem. Now I think it is more likely that Comrie is done as a Sabre and we will see UPL/Levi in Buffalo.

Fair enough. You’re not a fan. Cheers.

There is no player on the team who is better with the puck in tight quarters than Mitts. When he is working the boards/cycle on the forecheck he is simply one of the best I have seen on the Sabres at being able to process where the scoring opportunity is and somehow get the puck to his teammate in a high danger position. I actually get excited when he is in that position and generally expect he will generate a scoring opportunity. He has been expected to be a dynamic offensive player, yet for most of his career he has not had a chance to play with the teams other dynamic offensive players. Now he is getting that chance with Cozens. Mitts/Cozens/Quinn will give us a strong offensively skilled and defensively responsible second line next year, I think.

At $1.5 per year or so? Absolutely.

My dream was Mangiapane and one of the D.

I’m not making a prediction, but I saw yesterday from one of the “insiders” that Calgary was considering moving out a player or two from their top 9, top 4, to recoup some draft capital and make cap space for the summer. The Flames lost last night. If we make a deal today, maybe it’s the Flames who have a player or two who fit our timeline.

The logic of the trade is pretty clear, even if there is general disagreement amongst fans. The team needed to improve its depth on defence. The organization is not as down on Bryson and Clague as the fanbase is. The analytics department has their own data not available to the public and that data likes Stillman as a depth player. He has another year on his contract at an AAV that is not at all problematic. We gave up a prospect who was far down the depth chart in an area of surplus talent.

I've often thought, in hindsight, that we would have been better to trade Puppa for Lemieux. 🙂

The missing player for me is Aho.

I’m in for the “plan” and the long-haul. That said, it will be a bit disappointing if we don’t make any move of consequence at the deadline. There are 3 timeframes in a calendar year where NHL teams make acquisitions. Yes, trades are made at other times of the year, but in and around the draft, free agency day, and the deadline are the periods where trades typically occur. Anytime you go through one of those periods and haven’t made a move to improve the team (short or long term, depending on your time line) is a potential lost opportunity. I don’t want anything rash, but I would like to see a move that signals the plan is not to solely rely on the development of our young NHL players and prospects.

When the team went on the road and took 7 of 8 against Central Division teams, ascension to the playoffs seemed nearly inevitable. Then you lose 3 in a row in regulation by a combined 17-5 and the season seems over. How could the team I watched these past 3 games possibly compete for the playoffs? Of course, that’s not how it works. As I heard someone say on NHL Network radio yesterday, when talking about the inconsistent play of all the Wildcard contenders: “That’s why they are potential wildcard teams and aren’t cemented in the top 3 in their division”. Pittsburgh lost 6-0 to the Kings three nights ago. Washington lost 4-1 in San Jose. We might be watching the beginning of the end of the Sabres season. And we might be watching a dip in their performance that they will overcome as they have 2-3 times already this year. So long as we remain in a position where a 5 game win streak puts us back in legitimate contention, we aren’t really out of it.

Just looking at the 3rd lines of playoff contenders using the depth chart tool on capfriendly and I would say there are plenty of teams that our 3rd lines stacks up fine against. I’m not saying it couldn’t be improved, but it isn’t the case that they would be grossly overmatched in any playoff matchup.

It is still too early to scoreboard watch (though, I will nightly). The Sabres have 42 points in 32 games since the 8 game losing streak. Interestingly, in the 32 games that preceded the losing streak (including the final 22 games of last season), they had 41 points. The Sabres have 32 games remaining. If they can repeat what they did in the 32 games pre and post 8 game losing streak, they should get in. It won’t be easy though.

My prediction is 8x9.75. There are lots of comparables that come in between 8.5 and 9.5. I don’t sense Dahlin is going to ask for the moon.