Archie Lee

Isn’t it obvious that we are at the “it’s about now” stage? I get the frustration with the years of losing. It seems to me though that lots of folks want a meaningless sound-bite from the GM or coach. The Sabres are one of 2-3 youngest teams in the league They just had back to back seasons where they increased their points % from .330 to .457 to .555. They missed the playoffs by a regulation win. In what world is it not their goal to make the playoffs? Lots of GMs and coaches make promises and pronouncements. That’s not the style of Adams and Granato. Until the progress stalls or regresses, they have earned the benefit of my doubt.

This is what I think, but I would put Power at just over $8 million AAV and Dahlin under $10. I don’t think Power will go 7 or 8 unless we get him closer on AAV to what a post-bridge deal would be. That said, I won’t be angry with a bridge. The reality with Dahlin’s bridge is that it may well have given us Dahlin for 10-11 years at what might yet prove to be a very reasonable number. A longer term extension likely would have needed to be north of $8 million anyway, and Dahlin would be closer to UFA now than he will be if we sign him long-term this summer. It’s looking to me like what we did with Dahlin was use a bridge contract properly

Adams has stated many times that when he moved into the GM role he committed to staying true to who he is and that he would not try to be someone that he isn’t. He’s been GM long enough now for me to realize that anyone who is eager for a Pierre Dorian-like “the rebuild is over” statement is going to be very disappointed. That is ok by me. Other teams in our division, Ottawa and Detroit, have tried to speed things along with high profile UFA signings and trades. Yet we have moved ahead and stayed ahead. Adams and Co. have made some mistakes, but they clearly have things going in the right direction. I expect the focus and message on Wednesday will be on staying the course, on trusting the process, and on not sacrificing the future for the present. I get that some think this is going too slowly and I understand why. All indications, though, are that we are getting there.

As a neutral observer who has nothing against either team and who likes Dumba as a player, I hated the hit. It was a bit late, but more so than that it was blindside and predatory. Most egregious to me is that, in my view, Pavelski was engaged with and distracted by Hartman who was shadowing/pursuing him. He was likely preparing for Hartman to “finish his check” and did not account for Dumba coming from behind Hartman. It’s exactly the kind of hit that results in the kind of injury that occurred. If the NHL is serious about reducing injuries, and head injuries in particular, then this sort of hit needs to be penalized until it is all but removed from the game.

Compher only became a Compher-like centre this year. This is his first full season with positive possession metrics. His emergence this year likely relates to a combination of becoming more experienced and to moving up in the line-up and having regular higher ability wingers. He is below 50% on the year and career at the dot. I think Thompson’s emergence at centre has moved the Sabres to have Krebs develop into our Compher-like centre. I think he centres line 3 going forward and once he gets some more offensively gifted wingers he will produce 45-50 point seasons, kill penalties, play on PP2, be on the ice late to protect leads and take big face offs and be an all around pain to play against.

I like Jarry. His career #'s are actually a bit better than you indicate. I think .909 was this year's save % and his career mark is actually .914. I think that Jarry as our starter for a couple of years with Levi as the back-up who takes over in 25-26 would be a good situation. I don't think it is realistic though. I don't think the Sabres will be in the market for a goalie. If they are it will likely be for only a 1-2 year term. Jarry is young and will likely want and getter a longer term deal from someone. There also might be a team (Carolina?) that offers a better situation in general for goalies. Also, while I do think Jarry would be a likely upgrade over UPL/Comrie, I'm not sure if it would be as big of an upgrade as their individual #'s suggest. In my view, there is clearly a direct connection between how well teams play defence and goalie statistics. Elite goalies like Saros can overcome bad defence and still produce elite stats. According to Moneypuck, in Jarry's 4 years as an NHL regular the Pens have been 2nd, 9th, 9th and 18th in expected goals against. The Sabres were 26th in expected goals against this year. I don't think Jarry is good enough to overcome how poorly we defend.

Ottawa was paying teams to take Murray. They gave Toronto a 3rd and a 7th and ate 25% of Murray's deal and got nothing back. Nothing. The rumored Sabres deal is that we were getting Murray, with retention, and Ottawa's 1st rd pick (7th) for our 1st (9th). Acquiring Matt Murray was taking a chance on a veteran goalie who was on the scrap heap. He's been as unreliable due to injury and has performed at a lower level than Anderson. Murray would not have been what I would call a "major acquisition" personally and nobody would have concluded, as nobody concluded when the Leafs acquired him, that goaltending was now solved.

I would go a step further and say we might go with 3 goalies to start next season. We went with 3 and then 4 goalies for over 2 months to end this season. I'm not predicting this, but I think it is more likely we go with 3 goalies than it is that we bring in a new veteran goalie. Also, I don't see any obvious candidates. On the Athletic's Hockey Show podcast from Friday, they briefly discussed the Sabres and the three writers on the panel agreed that an upgrade at goaltending was needed. One panelist suggested UFA Tristan Jarry; he stated that Jarry at #1 for a couple of years with Levi as a developing #2 would be perfect. The other 2 writers audibly laughed at this and one said: "A Jarry & Levi combo is not what I had in mind". So, people who cover hockey can't agree that a 28 year old UFA with 200+ games of experience and a career .914 save % is a sufficient upgrade for the Sabres. I think you can breakdown good NHL goaltending into two categories. Category #1 is true elite goalies who have proven to be good year over year: Saros, Sorokin, Helebucyk, Shesterkin, Vasilevsky. Category #2 are the teams whose goalies typically thrive (at least in the regular season): Carolina, Boston, NYI, Vegas, Dallas, Toronto, Colorado. There is crossover. All goalies seem to thrive on the Island and goalies like Ullmark and Oettinger are making a case to join the elite category. I doubt we are getting any of the elite goalies. There is no indication any are available or that Adams would be willing to meet the acquisition cost if any were. This leaves the next level. I would be wary of goalies like Fred Andersen or Raanta, who have been good on a team that provides them with impeccable support. The bottom of the goaltending rankings from this past season is littered with guys who were in recent years prominently discussed by some Sabre fans as potential upgrades: Jack Campbell, Ville Husso, Alex Nedelkovic, Thatcher Demko, Kappo Kahkonen, John Gibson. Likewise, the top of the charts includes goalies that were coming off weak seasons and who were far from sure things going to new teams: Samsonov, Georgiev, Korpisalo, Lankinen. I think we need to clean up our own house. Maybe Levi is the elite goalie that solves our issues, but it would be good if we also became a team where goalies thrive.

Agreed. We have lots of good players. I like Quinn with Cozens. I like him with Krebs too. We are in good shape with multiple good options.

I don't think he needs Cozens to be good. Do you?

Mittelstadt will get the Chytil deal I think. Same draft year, similar production. 4-5 years x $4-4.5 million per. Right now he is our 5th best forward. I think he will be on the second line with Cozens next year. Maybe with Quinn or Peterka on the other wing. The last two games of the season we saw a bit of Quinn/Krebs/Peterka. I could see Greenway/Cozen/Mitts as line 2 next year with the kid line, with Krebs for Cozens, as line 3. I think there is a good chance that next year starts with the top 4 forward prospects all staying where they currently are.

Fair enough. I think it is possible, but the likelihood of it happening starts to breakdown when you dig deeper. Consider that Adams has yet to make such a move at any position, that he has made clear he is committed to not blocking young players, that there really are very few goalie options that make sense from a term/AAV/acquisition-cost standpoint and that are also a clear upgrade, and it seems like a long-shot to me. Regardless, what started me in this discussion was the notion that the Sabres starting Levi in game 82 was a sign the organization has already decided to move on from Comrie and UPL. I just think that is wishful thinking on the part of people who have made up their mind that a change is required.

Nothing about Adams and Granato suggests they are the type to figuratively slap anyone in the face.

You are likely to be very disappointed.

Here's what I think happened over the last 12 games. - The Sabres played, on balance, their best hockey of the year. They needed to in order to have any chance to get in and they full committed and played good hockey regardless of who was in net - This corresponded with circumstances that required the organization to make certain commitments to Levi and, also, to the organization's legitimate desire to see Levi in NHL action - When Levi got into a game he played well and showed he had the ability and that he could handle the pressure of the moment - Given the situation the Sabres were in, Levi was the best candidate to help them do the improbable. He was the "lightning in a bottle" goalie and his maturity made the Sabres comfortable that they could roll with him without fear that there would be negative consequences - When they were eliminated in game 80, a reasonably healthy Anderson was the logical option for the last home game against Ottawa - That then left game 82. Going with Levi was not a slight against UPL or Comrie; it was the opposite. Levi had been playing and was game ready. Comrie last played March 27. UPL last played April 1. Levi had written a good story for himself. Nothing could realistically happen in game 82 against Columbus that would ruin Levi's end to the season. Comrie and UPL, on the other-hand had up and down years. Their last games were good though (UPL beat NJ and Phi; Comrie shut-out the Islanders and was arguably the Sabres best player in the shoot-out loss to Montreal). Going with Levi allowed all 4 goalies to end their seasons on high notes.

It would be unorthodox to be sure. But outside of the Hall signing (very different circumstances) and trading for Tuch (again, very unique circumstances), Adams has not made a major acquisition of a veteran player via trade or free agency. Until Adams makes such a move at least once, it is difficult for me to conclude that him making such a move is now imminent. Under the circumstances (Levi pencilled in as #1, the Sabres being unlikely to commit to a veteran goalie on a longer term or larger AAV, the Sabres likely being unwilling to move higher end assets for a goalie), I honestly don't see a realistic goalie acquisition this off-season where it could be said definitively that the acquired goalie is a rock-solid better option than Comrie/UPL.

The Sabres were 9-2-1 over their last 12 games. Levi started 7, went 5-2 with a .905 save %. Comrie, UPL and Anderson started the other 5 and went a combined 4-0-1 with a .924 save %. Levi was great. I think the evidence might support though, that the team fully committed to taking a serious run over the home stretch and, on balance, they played their best overall hockey of the season, regardless of who was in net. Like everyone, I'm very excited about Levi. His track record is incredible. Coming in as he did late in the year and showing his ability and confidence was impressive. His focus and presence seem elite. I do think he is the guy going forward. Discarding UPL though, unless he is part of a package for something significant, would be a big mistake I think. UPL was a 2nd round pick. In his last year of junior he was OHL goalie of the year and led Finland to World Junior gold where he was the 1st team all star. In his first 13 NHL games, played prior to this season, he had a .913 save %. He struggled with consistency this year to be sure, but won 17 games and was NHL rookie of the month for January when he went 6-2-1 with a .907 save % (wins in January are as important as wins in March and April). Tossing him aside now might be as foolish as it would have been to toss aside Thompson or Mittelstadt a couple of years ago, as many fans would have gladly done. I could not be more excited about Levi. Ideally we would have a true #1 goalie who is clearly part of the long-term core and who stabilizes the position for 7-8 years. Of the goalies we have, like most people I think Levi is the top candidate for that role. As excited as I am about Levi though, I'm not sure it would be wise to conclude he is unquestionably that guy based on 7 NHL games with a .905 save %. From an age perspective, we have two goalies who fit in with the current long-term core and who have a track-record of strong amateur accomplishments with some short-term NHL success. I think it would be premature to get rid of one of those goalies because he was inconsistent at age 23.

I've seen/heard this sentiment expressed a few times. Why does starting Levi in game 82 mean we are moving on from both Comrie and UPL?

No team makes a goalie look better than the Canes (maybe the Bruins). I would be wary of giving more than a year to Andersen or Raanta. I would bet more on Comrie and UPL looking good on the Canes than I would on Andersen or Raanta fixing our goalie issues.

I like the Joel Savage reference. 1988. 35 years ago. Where does time go? I make old references like that all of the time. I wonder if in 1988 their were hockey fans cautioning against getting excited about a prospect because there was a 19 year old kid in 1953 who didn't pan out. Your opinion on Johnson is as valid as anyones. If you have seen Johnson play more than twice then your opinion holds more value than mine. Another opinion is Corey Pronman's, from the Athletic. In October 2022 he did a 2019 re-draft and had Johnson going at #35 and in the tier of "middle of the line-up NHL players". Another is Scott Wheeler's, also from the Athletic. In Feb 2023 Wheeler ranked the Sabres as having the league's 6th best prospect pool and Johnson as our 6th best prospect. He wrote a couple of paragraphs on Johnson's game. His closing sentence was: "[Johnson is] not likely to be a big special-teams guy in the NHL, which could limit his upside, but I like him as a possession-driving No. 4-6 who is quietly effective at both ends at even strength. He has also played both sides in college, which gives him some flexibility." I will be disappointed if we don't get him signed. He seems like a high floor but low ceiling prospect. The combination of the lower ceiling and the compensatory draft pick do somewhat mitigate the potential loss.

A factor in keeping players in the AHL (or Junior or Europe) is the availability of positions on the NHL roster. Sometimes there just isn't a suitable spot available. As the Sabres get better and deeper there will not be 2-4 spots available for rookies every year. Every player gets one development path. There is simply no way to know if a player would have ended up better or worse had a different path been followed. All you have is where the player is trending and where they end up. People spent years lamenting how Thompson and Mittelstadt were rushed and poorly developed and now one is a star and the other is making a strong case to be a long-term middle-six contributor. Would they have arrived earlier or be better players today if they had spent more time in the AHL? Or would they have been better staying in the NHL and being healthy scratched 1/2 of the time? It is impossible to know.

There are a few factors that make Savoie going back to Winnipeg a far less than terrible option: - The Ice are coached by James Patrick. Adams had gone out of his way to express how comfortable they are with a prospect playing under Patrick. - The Ice are likely to have Benson and Geekie back next year, along with a lot of other good players including their starting goalie. They will be a strong team again and Savoie might be in line to be their captain. It is not unrealistic that they could be looking at a rare opportunity for a repeat championship season. - Savoie will be a top player on Team Canada's World Junior team if he is made available. The other factor is that there are a limited # of spaces available in Buffalo. Let's assume that Okposo and Girgs are not re-signed and that Olofsson is traded (which is far from certain). That still leaves Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Mittelstadt, Krebs, Greenway and Jost taking 10 spots with probably at least 8 of those players being on the top 3 lines. Factor in the possibilities that they want to make a spot or two available to the secondary Rochester prospects who have earned opportunities (Rousek and Biro as examples) and that they may want to add a veteran presence through trade or free agency and there are just not many spots available. I think Savoie and Kulich are either middle six regulars or they are back in Rochester and Winnipeg. I'm ok with that. It is a sign that we are getting better that there is not an obvious spot available to a prospect.

I’m not saying that Levi would not benefit from AHL time. But, the fact that Miller, Oettinger and Hellebuyck all got AHL time does not mean they needed AHL time.

I hope the team is not too disheartened and still takes a “one game, one period, one shift at a time” approach. The 2 games in hand make it at least interesting as if we win those we are only 2 pts back with all the teams having 4 remaining. Just beat Detroit.

There is likely no direct comparable. To me he is a smaller, less physical but better skating Samuelsson. If it works out he will be to Power what Sammy is to Dahlin. The stable defender who lets the more dynamic player do his thing. The Sabres don’t seem overly concerned with left/right when it comes to Power and Dahlin.