Archie Lee

All of those things are true. But they are 7th overall and we are 29th. There is a lot that Adams could have done differently and better to bridge that gap half-way. I'm not a religious person, but I heard a phrase yesterday that I think applies to Adams: "God blesses you with good-luck and then curses you by making you think you are smart." Adams was blessed by one of the largest single strokes of luck that an NHL GM has had in the past 5 years; that was Tage Thompson going from a guy who looked like he might be a bust to being one of the most dynamic offensive players in hockey. That single stroke of luck, more than anything else, bumped us from last over-all in 20-21, to being a team on the rise in 21-22, to being a young team that missed the playoffs by a point in 22-23. And Adams convinced himself that it was because he was making smart, progressive, moves, and that all he had to do was stay the course. He needed to understand, or needed somebody with more experience to explain to him, that expecting the next youngster to hit like Thompson, is not a plan.

Looking back at the losing streak, the Adams press conference was after game 4 I think. It was a low point among many low points for the franchise. I am certain that having your GM come out and say that the team’s environment is so bad (losing, geography, financial opportunity) that he can’t get good players to agree to join the team, had to be demoralizing. This was a factor in the streak lasting as long as it did, in my view. Years ago, another team that I follow in a different sport, was in a similar position of being a league doormat for years. They do not play in a destination city. They somehow convinced a veteran coach with a winning track record to take the vacant HC position. When he was asked why he took a seemingly thankless job in an undesirable location, he stated: “I’m a coach, not a tourist.” That’s what I would like a Sabre veteran to say. It would have no credibility coming from Adams. I want a player to say “I signed here because it’s a great place to live. I want to play where the game matters. I can get all the palm trees and sunshine I want in the off-season and when my career is over. If you don’t want to come here, FU. I’m sick of this loser mentality”. It’s going to take someone to stand up and change the culture. Adams had his chance.

We don’t need to trade anyone. But, just for the sake of discussion, let’s say we run it back with only minor changes: Ryan Johnson and Levi replace UFA’s Jokiharju and Reimer; Gilbert and Bryson are replaced by replacement level low cost d-men. Then lets give conservative contracts to Zucker, Greenway, and our RFA’s (Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, Byram, Levi). I can’t get that version of the team under $92 million (and that is bridging Peterka). So, if we are going to make meaningful changes, some players have to go. And not just Jokiharju, Reimer, Gilbert, and Bryson. Somebody with a bigger contract or somebody expecting a bigger contract (or multiple players in those categories) has to be on the way out, or there will be no money to bring anyone in. And that’s not even considering the possibility that there will be an internal cap well below the cap ceiling. The more I consider it, getting what we can for Zucker, Greenway, and Jokiharju and then resetting in the off-season might make the most sense. I just have no faith in Adams when it comes to the reset.

I think there is a lot of that. There will be legit contenders who will have similar games in Carolina before the season is out. Actually, Carolina has been scuffling lately before this game. In the small picture, it’s just a loss in an 82 game season. The problem with the Sabres though, is that it can be real difficult to not see any loss or setback in the context of 14 years out of the playoffs. It is why it is so important to end that streak. It is why it has been an enormous error by our owner and GM to not make ending the streak a maximum and ultimate priority. Losing will always negatively impact a culture. Winning is the answer.

On goal one, Gilbert can’t transition up ice before we have secured a clear zone exit. Goal two looked like a bad bounce for Byram. Neither goal is one you can blame on your goalie, but I’m sure UPL would want at least one back. I think his technique has slipped this year and he is opening up too often and easily. This is likely a confidence issue caused by plays like this happening far too frequently. Goal 3 came after the soft penalty on Benson (as someone else asked, doesn’t the opponent actually have to trip for there to be a tripping penalty?). We had a terrible start against pretty much the last team you want to have a terrible start against.

Tage is our Kaprizov. Dahlin is a stud. There are lots of good pieces here. The Minnesota Wild have almost $15 million in dead cap. They are currently tied for 7th overall. Marcus Johansson is a middle-6 winger for them. It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season.

AFP is projecting 3x a little more than $3 million. I think it will be higher than that. I don't think anyone is giving McLeod $6 million a year.

I think it is bigger than one player. Watch the 5 on 3 Anaheim PP at the start of the 1st. 5 on 3 is tough, obviously, but Tuch was playing far too high. Cross ice passes between the forward and D on an 5 on 3 PP should be very hard to make. I just don’t recall seeing a team defend a 5 on 3 like that. Your McLeod hill is a strange one to me. Nobody is saying he is a star. He has undeniably been an effective player though. There was speculation earlier this year that the Sabres and Penguins were looking at swapping a young NHL ready player (players?) for Rust. I think Rust, McLeod, Tuch, would be one of the league’s fastest lines and could easily be a good 2nd line on a playoff team.

I agree with this. Adams needed to have the courage to trade a couple more of his guys for players more ready to win now (acknowledging he did trade Savoie for McLeod). On the topic of rolling it back, I think it is likely that they largely do. There is always some change between the deadline and the start of the next season, but I think Adams and Ruff will be back and I could easily see there being no movement of the young roster players. I think we may see a swap of Zucker for a player like Rust (Zucker leaves as a UFA and we trade Rosen+ for Rust). I think it is possible that the young core eventually reaches a point where their combination of skill, strength, maturity and experience allows them to be a playoff team, maybe as soon as next season. It’s just playing with fire to not proactively make intentional change.

This could be part of it. But by December I’m pretty sure every coach in the league was hammering home that the Sabres get off to good starts. I’m pretty down on Adams and what he has done with the roster over the past two seasons. So much so that he gets no credit from me if he sticks to his guns, stays with his young guys and they do become a playoff team next year. It will be year 6. The playoffs should be the minimum expectation. It would be nothing to brag about. That said, I don’t think it is the case that everything positive about the team is just related to other teams taking us lightly.

Have we tried Dahlin and Byram together on PP1? Watching them last night it seemed like that would work. Dahlin could run the PP from the wall like Kucherov.

There are many, many players who have no choice or few other options. How do you think we got McLeod and Zucker and Greenway?

I think we will trade Joker, Greenway, and Zucker. The one barrier may be that Adams overplays his hand, asks for too much and gets left holding them because teams move on to more affordable options (I’m not advocating that he trade all 3, I just think it is what he will try to do). I think it is highly unlikely that we acquire a player who helps us win games now. We won’t be actively tanking post-deadline, but I don’t think Adams will prioritize adding anyone who makes us better now. We may acquire a lesser player or two, to fill out the roster. I don’t think we trade any of our young roster players or prospects at the deadline. I think the plan will be to wait for the off-season and use our Rochester prospects and draft picks to acquire 2-3 veterans ton augment the roster. I think Adams still believes in all his young guys and will keep them and will double-down (or is this now a triple-down?) on internal development. He will add vets to replace those he moves out at the deadline, though. I think he will try to make another McLeod-like trade, another Zucker-like signing, and maybe try to add a partner for Power, though I think the current plan is for that to be Samuelsson.

I agree. Unless a team is overpaying, I don’t see the point. We have a bunch of drafted forwards who have in some ways overachieved their draft position, who we might not sign. I don't see the point of us having 12 picks in the draft if we aren’t going to utilize the assets. While momentum does not carryover from season to season, experience and understanding what it takes to win can carryover (I think). At some point our kids need to learn how to win, and putting them in a position where they lose is not the answer.

Got it. Even when someone agrees with your position your first inclination is to pick a scrap.

I see the two bolded sentences as basically the same thing. To support the kids with veterans, he needed to make the difficult decision to trade 2-3 of the kids. The issue is not with the acquisitions he made (though Lafferty and Aube-Kubel are looking like very poor decisions), but rather that he stuck with too many kids in critical positions. Adams needed to have the courage to move 2-3 of these players for veterans. Had he done so, he would still have had a very young team with a better than average prospect pool to draw from in the coming years. Sadly, nothing has really changed. Quinn is playing a bit better but on balance has still regressed. Benson's game is basically the same as it was a year ago. Likewise, the other younger players you reference (aside from Peterka) have not advanced their games. If they come back next season with all of these young players on the roster, they will not likely be projected to be a playoff team. If they stay with the kids, the safe bet is that the streak will stretch to year 15.

Since we are saying the same thing, I guess you don't know either.

Levi is having a good season. But he is 6th in save % in the AHL. Former Sabre and journeyman goalie Devin Cooley has a better save % (in 7 more games played). I don’t see Amerks games, but my sense is Levi has been a big part of their success and the team is playing a much more structured and effective game. Not many coaches or teams will continue to thrive if you replace their good goalie with a bad one.

I think we have seen enough evidence over the years that confirms momentum does not carry-over from year to year. Momentum doesn’t always carry-over, in-season, from game to game, so of course it won’t move with a team across an off-season. Where I disagree slightly on these being meaningless garbage time wins, is I do think there is a point in a team’s development where they do learn how to win. And, I think it is the case that such learning can happen in the 2nd half of a “lost” season. I think the 03-04 to 05-06 Sabres are some evidence of that. What I don’t trust is that Adams will get us a Grier at the deadline and a Numminen and Lydman in the off-season. Adams’s history is to rely largely on internal development to bridge the cap. His philosophy has rendered two disappointing seasons in a row, this one being disastrous.

I think you are right that UPL has, objectively, not been as good as last year. I think, though, that you are also underplaying the impact that the team's poor play has had on UPL's poorer performance. Unless I'm mistaken, a goalie who faces 10 shots from particular places on the ice, will have a specific xGA related to those shots, regardless of whether those 10 shots came over a game span of 25 minutes or 5 minutes. Too often we have put UPL in a position where he is under duress. 30 shot attempts, 20 shots, and 5 high-danger chances over 60 minutes is simply different than the same occurring over 20 minutes.

More seriously, good for Savoie. I hope the kid has a great career.

You mean they didn’t bring him up and put him on a line with the Oiler equivalent of Tyson Jost and Brandon Biro?

Complaints about Cozens are fine, of course. At some point they are misdirected though. The complaint should really be about the in-over-their-heads GM and HC who continue to put a young player, and the team, in a position to fail.

I now agree on moving Cozens to wing. I would put him with McLeod and Tuch for an extended period. Tampa traded for Brandon Hagel when he was in year D+6. He had 44 points that year. That’s about what Cozens is on pace for. Cozens is in D+6. I’m not saying he would be our Hagel. But if Cozens just becomes a 20-25 goal 45-50 point winger on a big, fast, hard to play against 2nd line, his contract will not be crazy (particularly 3 years from now when it rises to $113 million). And maybe he has a little more in him.

I agree that their value is not the same. I’m not interested in trading either, unless it is part of a larger strategy of improving the construction of the overall roster.