Archie Lee

Kadri's contract will expire at age 38. I'm not advocating for recklessness. For perspective though, the following deals were signed just this offseason: - Edm, Draisatl, 8 x 14, expires at age 37 - Bos, Lindholm, 7 x 7.75, expires at age 36 - Carolina, Slavin, 8 x 6.395, expires at age 39 - Phi, Konecny, 8 x 8.75, expires at age 36 - Stl, Buchnevich, 6 x 8, expires at age 36 - Sea, Montour, 7 x 7.142, expires at age 37 - Sea, Stephenson, 7 x 6.250, expires at age 37 - Nash, Stamkos, 4 x 8, expires at age 38 - Nash, Saros, 8 x 7.740, expires at age 38 - Nash, Skjei, 7 x 7, expires at age 37

They are projecting an increase of 81 points over a year ago, from our top 5 scorers. If they are correct, and the bottom doesn't fall out on UPL, I think that would make us a playoff team.

If Quinn and Benson, this year, are what you project or think they are, we will have two of the top 15 wingers in the NHL (maybe 3 or 4, depending on what Tuch/Peterka do). I hope you are right.

I’m not at all downplaying the coaching issues we saw last year (poor starts, lack of consistent engagement, really bad PP), but there is also a possibility that Granato squeezed as much as could be squeezed out of the 22-23 team and that the 23-24 results are just closer to the reality of what the team he had to work with was capable of.

The hockey world in general, is not as high on Benson and Levi as we are. I see the work of prospect writers like Pronman and Wheeler as jumping off points for discussions on prospects. Neither pretends to be a know-it-all. They rely on a combination of what they watch themselves and what they are advised by the network of scouts they have connections with. No individual person can have a truly exhaustive knowledge of all top prospects. Pronman is probably not as well informed on Sabre prospects as some fans on this message board are, but he is likely more well informed on how the hockey world views our prospects relative to prospects on other teams.

I am excited about the future for the core players that you reference. I am not excited about their prospects for leading the team to the playoffs this year. It could happen and I am not totally without optimism about the season (I like the bottom 6 changes; I think the coaching change will, at the very least have a short term impact on attitude/intensity; I think the young core is talented enough). I just can’t project playoffs when we have so much youth at the top of the lineup. There are just too many things that need to happen that have either never happened before (Benson and Quinn producing like top 6 players over a full season, Samuelsson living up to his contract, Byram putting it together in a Sabre uniform, Levi playing like an NHL goalie for longer than a 3 week stretch) or that have only happened once before (Cozens’s, Peterka’s and UPL’s singular breakout seasons), for me to believe they are ready for the next step.

I won’t speak for you, but my guess is that when you say patience is needed you don’t mean that Krebs should be gifted a middle 6 role and that the team should suffer through his growing pains. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you just mean it is too early to toss him to the curb and that having him start the year as a 13th forward and giving him the opportunity to earn a higher role in the lineup would be a prudent path to take. Not sure why anyone would disagree with being patient another year. I guess we could bring back a Riley Sheehan level forward for the 13th spot or promote a kid instead of giving him playing time in Rochester. Krebs as 13 with a chance to earn a higher role is the smart move.

I think he is certainly in the Sabres’s plans. I think he is perfectly suited to start the year as the 13th forward. If he stays healthy, recognizing that there will be injuries somewhere in the forward group, he will have a chance to cement himself as a valuable regular in a middle-six role. I don’t see why he can’t be at least a Curtis Brown level player with a bit of a higher ceiling. I think the issue in the moment is just him accepting that for now he is the 13th forward and the Sabres want to pay him accordingly, this year.

I don't think Quinn has done anything that would really put him on the radar for Hockey Canada at this point. Could it happen? Sure, but he would be a serious long-shot I think.. The far more likely candidate is Cozens. He has consistently played well when representing Canada. He can play wing and centre. He plays much faster than Quinn. If he rebounds to 22-23 form or better, I think he has a real chance to be in the discussion.

I'm not down on Levi. At this point though, I think Luukkonen's chances of being an elite goaltender are greater. The NHL recently listed their top 25 projected fantasy goalies for 2024-25. Not a meaningful list; Luukkonen is 17th and Levi isn't in the top 25. But it is a who's who of starting NHL goalies. On the list there is one goalie shorter than Levi and 24 taller. 22 are at least 2 inches taller. 17 at least 3 inches taller. It doesn't mean that Levi won't be great or that Luukkonen will be. I do think Luukkonen is a better bet though.

I agree. But, I wasn’t meaning we need to be patient for another 2-3 years. If Benson and Quinn are as deserving of the “near-to-untouchable” label that they have been given, then we should just need to be patient until October.

There are top 6 wingers who I would trade Benson for. Zegras has too many question marks for me. I wouldn’t trade Benson for Zegras. That said, if players like Benson and Quinn are on the verge of greatness or near greatness, and are therefore untouchable in trade, then we really don’t need a top 6 addition. We just need patience.

Had we kept Skinner we would not have signed Zucker.

I'm not quite this cynical. I think it is possible, even likely at this point, that the Skinner buyout was about the combination of saving the owner money and re-setting or changing the make-up of the roster. Maybe we are saying the same thing with different levels of diplomacy. Until proven otherwise, I agree with the basic point: we have an internal cap of around 90-91% of the cap ceiling.

It isn’t about the age, experience, talent or maturity of any specific player. The question is: have they collectively reached a critical mass of these attributes that is needed for an NHL roster to be successful?

What does it mean to be playoffs or bust? Is it not possible to prioritize making the playoffs this year while still planning for the long-term? I don’t see them as exclusive. The best teams in the NHL are often “all-in” year after year. Again: year after year. How many years in a row have Vegas, Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas, Boston, Tampa, Florida, Toronto and the Rangers been in the mix? Other than Dahlin, I don’t see that there is a single player that we have whose loss should be insurmountable in achieving the goal of being successful over the longterm (frankly, I’m not sure Dahlin is in that category either). That said, I don’t typically see things as black or white. There are scenarios where we could miss this year and I would argue that bringing back Adams makes sense. If a lot of the things that need to go right do go right, and we get to 91+ and miss by a point or two, I don’t think I will be arguing for Pegula to take another shot at hiring a new GM just yet.

If the Sabres make the playoffs and get on a run, they will become almost everyone’s 2nd favourite team for a year.

I'm not sure why Wheeler has even included Benson on his list as he is clearly "established as a full-time NHLer". That error aside, each year Wheeler seems to place weight on the strengths of the most recent class over that of prior draft classes. Last year Benson was 12th on the list and was one of twelve picks from 2023 in the top 20. This year he has fallen to 20th on the list and there are ten picks from the 2024 draft class in the top 20. Perreault is the only 2023 pick who vaulted ahead of Benson, which is odd to be sure. Wheeler's actual write up on Benson is glowing with praise.

I think it is probably the case, but it is also the case that they thought he was a player they could replace in free agency. They signed Brandon Duhaime (on my list as a possible 4th liner before free agency) and Taylor Raddysh to replace Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel.

I don't know how Ruff managed his lines and match-ups in Jersey the last few years. That, though, is likely a better indicator of what we will see than what he did here nearly two decades ago.

I agree. There are complicated scenarios, but there is the simple answer as well. The goaltending doesn't regress and the PP improves to middle of the pack and we turn 8 one goal regulation losses into overtime games and win half of them and we finish with 96 points.

So far in this thread, 16 fans have posted their actual prediction for Benson's point total in 24-25. - Zero have predicted he will do worse production-wise - One predicts the same point total, but an increase in goals - 14 predict an increase in his production, the average of which comes in at 45 points. That's pretty much where you are. - My prediction would be similar to yours, 15-20 goals, 25-30 assists, 45-50 points. - Nobody is down on Benson or predicting a significant regression from last year.

It’s one person’s opinion. And he starts out by acknowledging that there are other people in the field who rate Buffalo’s prospect pool much higher than he does. And he states Buffalo has a top 10 prospect pool in his view, though barely so (9th or 10th I assume). The “most over-rated” line just seems like the hook to me. The obvious knock against our pool is what he identifies, the lack of a clearly elite, difference-making, type of player. The depth is very good and it shifts to excellent when you consider those that have graduated recently to the NHL. But there is no obvious star coming. I’m not worried (yet) about the lack of a clear star. For one, I think Dahlin fits that bill. Thompson might rebound along with Tuch and be star-adjacent. I think Cozens, Power, Quinn, Peterka, Byram and Benson have legit shots, if maybe long-shots, to be stars. I think we have 4-5 more such players coming. That’s 10-11 long-shots. I don’t think it is unrealistic that we have 2-4 Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Robert Thomas, Josh Morrissey level stars (or higher), who haven’t hit yet. Still lots of time to be patient with individual players (less so with the team as a whole).

True enough. Finding the right player who doesn't have trade protection and who will extend with the Sabres is a legitimate challenge (though not insurmountable). This was meant as a post-free-agency, off-season, hypothetical discussion about what you would be prepared to give up to get a top-6 upgrade. I fully understand why some would say Benson should not be moved in such a trade. If a fan believes that Benson was a top-5 pick who slid to 13 solely due to the myopic views of NHL GMs (a myopic view that, thankfully, our GM does not share), and that there are maybe 10 players in all the NHL whose talents exceed Benson's potential, then of course that fan isn't making the short-sighted decision to trade him for a 28-29 year-old top-6 winger.

I think Benson can be that also. Per your earlier post in this thread though, you predict he will be there in 3 years. But, with the goal of winning, you won’t trade him for a player who is there now?