Archie Lee

I missed this entirely...what are all these examples of us changing lines with the intention of "getting Cozens going"? I don't recall a single instance of this.

We are fortunate to have these kids. Whether they take the big step this year or next, I am bullish on their future. I am critical of Adams for not doing more this off-season, but there is no denying that he has overseen very good drafting that has led to this level of young talent (with more still coming).

I like: Dahlin/Power Byram/Clifton Samuelsson/Jokiharju The 2nd and 3rd pairing could be flipped and Byram and Clifton could be considered pair 3. I just think it is the best balance of skill, d-zone play, experience and physicality.

Good post and interesting data. It supports why I am at least somewhat equivocal in my view on this. Indeed, it could work out. That said, a couple questions to consider: - Three of those teams had a 1st overall generational or bordering on generational talent in their forward group, and the one that didn’t had Aho. Who in our group would you compare to Matthews, Aho, Mackinnon or Hughes (or Marner or Rantanan for that matter)? - How many teams in the same period dressed a similar group of young forwards (by age if not talent) and did not get in the playoffs? I can think of two off the top of my head, the 22-23 and 23-24 Sabres. I’m not letting the players off the hook entirely. If we don’t make it this year though, the bulk of my frustration will be with the people in charge. We have cap space and assets to ice a better and more talented team and have chosen not to. Like a classroom that is out of control, at some point it isn’t the kids.

Setting aside that it was nearly a generation ago, I don't think Roy, Vanek, Pommer were ever a 2nd line combination at the ages in question. To the bolded, you are quite correct. I actually don't anticipate that Benson/Cozens/Quinn will be a line all season, and they almost certainly won't be if they don't perform well together. My comments are directed more to those who think that is a good 2nd line for this team in this critical year, than it is to the notion that Ruff is determined for that to be a line throughout the season.

I respect this view and have no argument against it. I don't really have an opinion on whether, all things considered, Cozens will have a better year than Quinn. What I do know is that if you look at the depth charts of teams that are expected and expecting to be in the playoffs this year, you won't find a projected 2nd line composed of the equivalent of a 23 year old centre coming off a disappointing season, a 22 year old RW who hasn't topped 15 goals or 40 points in his NHL career and who is coming off an injury plagued season, and a 19 year old LW who had 30 points as a rookie. It's asking a lot to expect these players to play the role we are going to ask them to play while placing "playoff expectations" on the team. No other team in the NHL that is expecting to be in the playoffs is doing this (or would, for that matter).

That's not really countering my point. I'm not arguing that Cozens isn't or shouldn't be ready to be good, I'm arguing the opposite and adding that it is time to give him two wingers who are already there. There comes a time when we have to fully support a player (in this case Cozens), by surrounding him with players who will help him be successful. This is not a shot against Quinn and Benson, nor am I fully discounting the possibility that together they might be great. Dylan Cozens would have a better chance to be a fully impactful player if his line-mates were the equivalent of what we project Quinn and Benson to be 3-4 years from now. I submit that this is self-evident. Totally misses the point though. Cozens may well be and should be ready. The same can't be so definitively said about his projected line-mates though.

A good comparable would be Levi's performance over the last final 7-8 games of the 22-23 season and how that carried over to 23-24. Oh...wait...just kidding...sort of. I have no issues with Cozens, Benson and Quinn as individual players. I'm thrilled that we have all three. I don't like them as a line (2nd line!!) right now because they have an average age of 21 and none of them are fully formed as NHL hockey players. I really am a little salty about us again asking Cozens (in his 5th NHL year, at age 23, with there being significant pressure on him to be the true 2nd line, two way, tough to play against centre that we need to get over the hump), to give us what we need while playing with two players even younger and less-experienced than he is. Some will view this as me being negative about Quinn and Benson, but I'm not; it is likewise unfair to ask both of them to play like veterans who are ready to help lead this team into the playoffs. Burdened by self-doubt as I am, I can without hesitation acknowledge that they are very talented players and that it could certainly workout fine. Much like handing the keys to Levi at the start of last year though, I don't see the point in taking the risk.

This is both true and a bit misleading. It’s true in the sense that, by a wide margin, the majority of teams that are in a playoff position on American Thanksgiving will hold on and actually be in the playoffs. Last year it was 13 of 16 teams. What’s misleading about it, in my view, is that the vast majority of the teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving who held on for an actual playoff spot, were predicted from the onset to be in the playoffs. In other words, there was no need to wait until American Thanksgiving to say these teams will be in the playoffs, you could reasonably make the prediction on July 1st. Barring an unexpected meteoric rise of a team like Buffalo or Ottawa or Detroit, or an unexpected collapse of a team like Boston, Toronto or Carolina, the reality is that there will be 3 to 6 teams competing for the last 1 or 2 spots. If you are one of those teams and you haven’t fallen way out of the race by Thanksgiving, then you still have a chance, because the teams you are chasing aren’t that great either. This is why the Islanders caught Detroit last year (with Philly and Pittsburgh holding the last spot at times) and why Edmonton and Nashville caught Seattle and St. Louis.

He needs a significant bounce back to be in the top 40. Maybe a little harsh. Make that top 30.

I’m not downplaying the significance that a coaching change can make. I was counting it up today though, and in my years of being a cognizant fan there have been close to 60 head coaching or manager (baseball) changes on the sports teams I cheer for. I don’t recall a single one where the incoming coach received anything but initial praise for some change they made to how the team practices or prepares (more tempo, more relaxed, more serious, more approachable). Give me an NHL average power-play. The push-ups I can take or leave.

There are many factors that could hold up a contract agreement. Based on the final deal, it’s possible (likely?) that the Sabres wanted Krebs on a 3 year deal (like Thompson’s bridge), and Krebs is betting on himself on a shorter term. Nobody was trying to get Krebs to accept a one year QO. I still think that there is a solid chance that he ends up being at least a Curtis Brown level player for us.

I imagine that with the exception of career minor leaguers who never thought they would play in the NHL, nobody WANTS to be the 13th forward. That said, I highly doubt, aside from having pressure to perform as any pro-athlete does, that Krebs is feeling any real angst. From tomorrow, the season is about 30 weeks long. He will show up and practice and he will be in the line up soon enough.

You put a fair amount of thought and effort into posting your view on something that people shouldn’t care about. I care. Not in the “I’m losing sleep” sense. But I want this to workout for the team and the player. Krebs was a key part of the return for Eichel, he is a former first RD pick who was thought to have top 6 ability and a captain’s pedigree. Just two years ago Granato stated that Krebs’s play making ability was Marner-like. When there was no immediate spot in the top 6 for him, he accepted a 4th line role. He is one of the few guys on the team who showed a willingness to drop the gloves. He has (had?), by all accounts, embraced the culture of “wants to be here”. There should be no roster spot gifted to anyone in the NHL. Nothing wrong, unusual, or angst-driven though, with fans caring about what’s up with the contract situation of a good young kid that some of us had and still have hopes for.

I hope you are right. It will be awesome to watch a Sabre on the Canadian Olympic team in 2026. If Quinn has that kind of year, he might drag Cozens there with him.

By no means am I saying Rosen will be this type of player, but the guy he was typically compared to was Ehlers (fast, skilled, good defensively). Ehlers has a very similar build.

I don’t think there is evidence they are being cautious with the cap this year so they can stay under the cap next year. I think their caution is related to an internal cap that is not going away anytime soon. Next off-season, if they replace Zucker, Greenway and Joker with entry level contracts, and bridge Peterka and Quinn (assuming progression but not huge breakout years), and give modest raises to Byram, McLeod, Levi (none are currently positioned in roles where huge raises would be a certainty), then the Sabres can easily come in $7-8 million under the anticipated cap ceiling of $92 million. If someone has a huge breakout year, then we can move a player in trade to stay within our internal salary structure. Until we see actual spending that proves otherwise, I think the plan is to continue with an internal cap. The lack of spending this year isn’t about ensuring we can stay under the actual cap ceiling in future years, but to ensure we can stay within our own artificial internal cap

Literally no one is carrying water for Krebs. Some are just saying it isn’t quite time to toss him to the curb. If you disagree and think it is time to move on, that’s fine and fair. No need to paint a fake narrative or argument.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist. If I was, I would say that if Krebs is on the Sabre roster this year then the Sabres will want him at around $1 million. If though, he is traded to a team like Calgary for one of their veteran players, then Calgary might need him at a higher cap hit, say $2 million, in order to stay above the floor.

You could be right. I would not be shocked if a trade for Kadri, as an example, was announced this afternoon. I would add though that Pegula has been known to change directions quickly, so just as the lack of such a trade thus far does not mean that Adams is not permitted to make such a deal, if such a trade does eventually happen it does not mean that Adams always had the authority. We don't know. There is a saying though about how ducks can be identified by how they waddle and by the sounds they make.

Having now listened to the Sabre portion of the podcast, I think Friedman was just giving one of his 32 general thoughts about where the Sabres are at. Friedman’s reasonable assumption, as a content creator who follows the sport closely but not the Sabres, is that there will be consequences if this regime gets through year 5 without making the playoffs. I think he is ignoring (not intentionally) factors that people who follow the Sabres closely are aware of (the adoration that Pegula and Adams have for each other, Adams’ clear willingness to be a company man and take the bullets, that all indications are the Sabres have an internal salary cap, that the Sabres will be the youngest team in the league and thus expectations for this iteration of the team, if not for the franchise, should be tempered). I’m not saying nobody will be fired or moved if we miss the playoffs. No owner has fired more GMs and coaches in the last 15 years than Pegula. I could imagine changes occurring that range from players like Joker being moved at the deadline, to analytics people leaving, to a more prominent player like Thompson being traded, to Adams himself being fired or reassigned. I just don’t see at this point how those would be meaningful consequences. I’m not cynical about this group of players and I am excited about the coming season and about the future. I don’t think we are a playoff team though and I don’t think we can realistically be projected as a playoff team. That isn’t because we failed to bring in better players, because failure only applies to something you tried to do but did not accomplish. The plan is being followed. My cynicism is over the notion that Pegula would tie one hand behind the back of everyone in the hockey ops, and then somehow think he can hold them accountable for failing to make the playoffs.

What consequences could there possibly be? Nobody is making Pegula sell the team. Nothing happened this off-season to suggest that Pegula has given some sort of playoffs or bust ultimatum to Adams. If he did give such an ultimatum, then he should be embarrassed that he has done so without lifting the spending reins. We are going into year 4 or 5 of the Adams rebuild, depending on your view (does it matter at this point) and we are still the youngest team in the league with one of the lowest payrolls. I think Friedman is making the mistake of assuming the Sabres operate like a somewhat normal NHL team, when they just don’t. Could someone get fired or traded if this doesn’t work out? Sure. How is that meaningful though, in the context of how this team operates?

I enjoy Pronman’s work. I agree and disagree with his opinions and don’t take it personally when his rankings don’t align with my personal views. For instance, I think he tends to rank the most recent draft class too high. He ranks Catton and Sennecke higher than established NHL forwards Lucas Raymond and Seth Jarvis. Catton and Sennecke could both “hit” as prospects, and not be as good as Raymond and Jarvis already are.

Pronman does predict, as I understand the rankings, that Benson will be a 2nd line winger in the NHL. That’s not exactly dumping on Benson. He doesn’t see Benson as the next Brad Marchand, a top 25 NHL talent in his prime, as you do. I’m not sure that Pronman’s view on Benson is the outlier here.

I think Greenway now has an 8 team NTC. There is a reasonable chance that Calgary is a no go for Greenway.