Archie Lee

Watching the games last night and two things occurred to me. 1. As you note, I think the Leafs are certainly the most complete team in the East. Maybe in the league. They could win it all. 2. Of the goalies left, Oettinger is the best and I don’t think it is close. So I like Dallas’s chances. This should doom the Leafs and Stars. Also, a side note on Dallas. I’m watching them close out games with Cody Ceci on the ice (he played the last 3 minutes v. Colorado in game 7) and I’m thinking he would be a great partner for Power or Byram on our 2nd pair. He was available for a song last off-season. He is a UFA July 1. Of course, other teams will notice this.

The off-season is going the opposite of what I hoped (though not the opposite of what I expected). I was hoping for Adams and Ruff to be removed and if not removed at least somewhat neutered by having their roles changed and new people hired (perhaps promoted in Karmamos's case) to the GM and HC roles. Instead, it would seem that Adams and Ruff are having their roles and influences entrenched. There is nothing Adams and Ruff can do that would excite me about the coming season. Adams and Ruff have combined for 3 winning seasons and 3 playoff seasons in their last 16 (in their respective respective roles). These are not the men that a serious and competent NHL team/owner hires to oversee their Hockey Ops. There is zero reason to think that any roster moves these men make, will have the desired outcome.

This is the front office equivalent to last year's 4th line "upgrades". Yes, I am now fully a cynic.

It's a great question. We all have our theories. I think it is simply that Adams is the first guy Pegula has hired to manage the Sabres, who he truly likes and trusts. Had Murray or Botterill had the sort of success that McBeane is having with the Bills, then maybe they are still with the Sabres, whether Pegula liked and trusted them or not. But neither had any real success, so they were fired. Adams also hasn't had success, but the combination of Pegula liking and trusting Adams along with Pegula also being, I think, sensitive to the perception that he is too quick to fire people, has lead him to be far more patient with Adams than is warranted. I don't think it has anything to do with micromanaging or not being committed to winning*. I think Pegula just failed to get it right the first 3 times, and now that he finally has a person in the role who he likes and trusts, he is going to give Adams a very long leash. *I understand that many, me included, will rightfully say that this is the same thing as not being committed to winning. I just mean that I don't think he has consciously determined that winning doesn't matter or that pinching pennies is more important. I think that Pegula thinks/hopes that they will eventually win with Adams. As a fan, there may be no point in distinguishing between the motivations.

I think there are solid arguments for Adams with every trade (given the circumstances surrounding each). A few, could even be called good trades. The larger point though, is that in his 5 years Adams had traded away multiple young players that cost us a 1st rd pick to acquire, with nothing to show for it. Adams has traded Montour, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittlelstadt, Savoie and Cozens (we acquired Montour with the 1st rd pick we received from San Jose for Evander Kane). So, Adams has traded away seven players that we acquired using 1st rd picks, five of which were top 10 picks, two were 2nd overall. Every one of the players traded is either still in the NHL or, in Savoie's case is still a prospect. Only Montour is over 30. These players are largely still in, or heading into, the prime of their careers. And 5 years into Adams's tenure, we had a 79 point season. The year before Adams took over, in the covid shortened season under Botterill and Krueger, the Sabres had 68 points in 69 games; that is an 80-81 point pace. Five years of Adams trading all these highly drafted and young players, has produced nothing. So, it's not that Adams won't get value in any particular trade, but rather he will do nothing with the value he obtains. Ray Ferrero said it best when he was doing a Sabre game a couple of years ago: Buffalo's roster is just a collection of nice pieces. I'm not afraid that Adams will make a terrible trade. I just have no faith that any trade he makes will result in the Sabres becoming a playoff-level team. And so, every day that Adams remains GM is just putting off the day when the job is given to someone who might be able to get us there.

Such a sad state of affairs. From here forward, starting with Adams representing the Sabres at yesterday’s lottery, the 25-26 season will exist under the cloud of “here we go again”. Draft picks and trades and free agent signings, will all be tainted by the reality that they are being overseen by a GM who has clearly demonstrated he is not capable of fulfilling the role. Every blown 3rd period lead, two-game losing streak, failure of a Sabre to sufficiently stand-up for a teammate, will be viewed in the context of 14 years out of the playoffs, and 5 years of failures under Adams. An expectation of failure has soaked the culture of the organization. This is how you have a 13 game losing streak in December of a must-win season.

As many of us suggested, this year’s scapegoat is conditioning. Last year the players needed accountability. This year they need to be in better shape.

At this stage it looks like he is still the GM because: - Pegula still trusts Adams. Pegula’s trust in Adams’s ability to ice a winning hockey team has to be fading. But Pegula is not ready to fire the man he considers a trusted consigliere. And/or - Pegula does not want to pay 2-3 men seven figure salaries to not work for him, which would be the case if he fired Adams (and Ruff). So we get one more lame-duck season of GMKA, starring Kevyn Adams and featuring Lindy Ruff. Together or apart, they are terrible reasons for not making needed change. Betting money should be on things getting worse. There just isn’t any precedent for a 1st time GM having no success through 5 seasons, and then figuring it out in year 6.

Blake grew up in Simcoe, Ontario.

This question is already warranted. The Jets have made the playoffs 8 of the last 9 years. They won the President’s trophy this year. 5 years into the Adams era and we are as far from the playoffs, let alone the Stanley Cup, as we were when he took over. It’s a sad state when you go into the off-season knowing there is nothing Adams will do that will have the Sabres even projected to be a playoff team.

I can understand Colorado’s frustration. Not the sort of call that is typically made, tied with 4 minutes left in game 7. Incredible game though.

Further to Montreal and where they are in their rebuild. The Habs have no big ticket RFA’s this summer. They have 3 UFAs (Armia, Dvorak, Savard), who they probably let walk. They have $17ish million in real cap space. They have 7 picks in the 1st three RD’s in the coming draft. Montreal has always been an attractive destination for certain NHL players, and perhaps more so now than recently. My bet is that they will not rely on internal growth as a primary off-season strategy. Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but it feels they may be about to pull away from us.

I don’t want to overstate anything. It could just be that Montreal had a similar nice year to what we had in 22-23 and it just happened that this year it was enough to grab WC2. However, I would bet on Jeff Gorton, Kent Hughes, and Martin St. Louis as a hockey braintrust over Kevyn Adams and Lindy Ruff.

Montreal could easily back-slide in 25-26. But I agree with you, we didn’t have the collection of vets in important roles that Montreal does. Earlier this year, Montreal’s GM, Hughes, gave an interview where he specifically referenced learning from the mistakes made by Buffalo, Ottawa, and Detroit. It remains to be seen if they have achieved something sustainable, but no question they have passed the Sabres.

Any Sabre team that actually makes the playoffs, would (technically) be better than these Sabre teams that have not made the playoffs. I’ll worry about how we will manage in the playoffs, when we make the playoffs.

Im seeing some speculation that with rising NHL revenues, and with high-profile OG6 teams looking for coaches, Sullivan may reset the market for coaching contracts. Probably safe to assume that the Sabres aren’t going to pivot from hiring the old local guy with no options who will take a two year deal for low $$$ and agree to keep all existing assistants, to a hot pursuit of the man about to reset what a top level NHL coach makes.

The refs reviewed it and gave him a 5 minute major for interference. It was so late that the Refs ruled, after review, that Tkachuk had interfered with the next thing that Guentzel was going to do.

I just rewatched it to make sure I didn't see it incorrectly the first time. Tkachuk didn't even commit to the hit until after the puck was gone. To the bolded, the reason player's in this situation don't have their heads on swivels is because they generally wouldn't dream that an opponent would do something that dirt-baggish. Of course, Guentzel should have known better as Tkachuk is a world-class dirt-bag. Hits like this are available all over the ice, and in every game, and they don't happen. The reason they don't happen is that the vast majority of players aren't dirt-bags.

I like those lines. And game to game I'm not sure it's worth distinguishing which is line 1, 2, or 3. Thompson's offensive prowess makes his line the default line 1, but I'm not sure it really matters. The Quinn/Greenway spot is the most primed for a veteran upgrade. Cap-wise, it's not the easiest thing to accomplish without Greenway going the other way. We can move on from Samuelsson and/or Clifton and/or Byram, but we would presumably be looking to bring in veteran upgrades on defense to replace any defenders who are leaving. With Peterka and McLeod in line for big raises, I don't think we can add a $4+ million dollar forward without a forward on a similar salary going out.

I agree so much with the bolded. My view is that if something like this happened in a Panthers game, as an example, and the Panthers did not immediately respond and then after the game the narrative was "It was a one goal game and we didn't want to risk a penalty", they would have credibility because everyone knows there are no shortage of players on the Panthers who are willing to respond, plus they win a lot. When you are a team like the Sabres and you lose a lot and you have a reputation for being soft, then "it was a one goal game...", doesn't really hold water as an excuse. I found, by my observation, that most of the "improved responses" that we saw after the Noesen hit, were half-hearted and performative.

Here are some wingers, who are currently playing "top-six" roles for Eastern Conference playoff teams: Carolina: Jackson Blake, age 20. He had 34 points in 80 games this season. Florida: Mackie Samoskevich, age 21. He had 31 points in 72 games this season. Tampa: Gage Goncalves. 20 points in 60 games. Washington: Anthony Beauvillier. 25 points in 81 games. Toronto: Pointus Holmberg: 19 points in 68 games. NJ: Erik Haula. 21 points in 69 games. I think Benson is more than capable of playing a top 6 role on a playoff team. Thinking you can make the playoffs with Benson and Kulich both in your top 6, and on the same line no less, is likely very flawed and is repeating this year's mistakes.

Peters and Rivet aren't my "cup of tea" when it comes to hockey podcasting. But, they do have good insights into the mindsets of NHL players, particularly players who played similar roles to theirs. I listened to this particular episode of After the Whistle last night. I find Harrington and Hamilton very hard to listen to, and I typically disagree with most of their opinions. I think though, they are probably correct that Ruff will have increasing influence. What is a bit disappointing is how there is no interest in looking at Ruff's record since he left Buffalo, with a critical eye. They both clearly hold Ruff in very high esteem. I've seen a lot of head coaches over the years who did not need half a season to diagnose and repair what was wrong with a team. Ruff's status in the community, is just going to get him the benefit of the doubt in some circles. The cynic in me thinks that was part of the reason for bringing him back; his presence buys time. To bring it back to my 1st paragraph. I thought the one insightful portion of this episode came from Rivet. At one point Hamilton and Harrington, and to a lesser extent Peters, were going on about the Noesen hit on Thompson. They were in an uproar about the incident and about how in the following days Lindy Ruff had to teach these "NHL players" how to be good teammates*. Rivet, was having none of it and, I think correctly, spoke up for the players on the ice and said that they are likely good teammates and that they are players who just don't have it in their make-up or skill-set to respond to such incidents. He then pointed out that years ago if something like that happened when Pominville, Roy, and Vanek, were on the ice, none of them would have done anything. Rivet's view was that this falls on bad roster construction and that you need multiple players dotted through your line-up who are willing and able to respond either in the moment or in the aftermath. * Perhaps interesting that the two big "the players don't stick up for their teammates" incidents (Lucic/Miller, Thompson/Noesen), came with Ruff as head coach.

I agree that this is how it is shaping up. I will certainly be happy if Ruff is successful and won’t begrudge him any success. It would be a pretty cool story if he is the one who gets us back in the playoffs. I just don’t think there is much reason to think he is the future of the franchise.

Yeah, it’s almost like the Oilers did the opposite of what we have done. We have been relying on internal growth, without having the veterans around to provide balance to the roster. The Oilers had 3-4 younger guys poised to take the next step in their careers and likely could have improved by relying on internal growth. Their roster mistakes might cost them a lot more than one playoff series. As an aside, three players who are in the playoffs with their new teams who we easily could have outbid their new teams for in trade or UFA cost, are Logan Thompson, Cody Ceci, and Warren Foegele. They are collectively what we needed instead of Reimer/Levi, Jokiharju, and Aubé-Kubel.

The series is far from over, but going with Skinner, Arvidsson, Henrique over Holloway, Foegele, McLeod, is looking like an epic level failure. Not that we are where the Oilers were or are, but it is perhaps a cautionary tale about moving on from younger players for veterans. It has to be the right veterans.