Archie Lee

On a somewhat related note, the league average save % so far this season is .896. The Sabres goalies are at .908, so they are greatly outperforming league average (thanks mostly to Lyon). Despite this, the Sabres are currently playing to a 76 point pace and are last in the East. The Bruins are 10-7 with a team save % of .893. So, go figure. Also, since Lindy Ruff left Buffalo, in his 9 seasons as a head coach prior to this year, his goalies out-performed league average in save % on only one occasion, that was 22/23 when the Devils had a great year and Ruff was a coach of the year nominee. They under-performed league average in all other years, most of them dramatically; his teams have been bottom 3 league-wide in 5 of those 8 seasons. This perhaps is meaningless. But, I would probably bet on our goaltending performance getting worse as this season continues, which is a bit frightening considering where we already are in the standings.

Lehner out-performed the league average in save %, by around .0075 in his first two seasons. In the 3rd season when he was at .908, league average was .912. That was year one of Housley and the season that caused O'Reilly to lose his love of the game, so I'll cut Lehner some slack. UPL's good season was similar to Lehner's two good years. In 23-24 UPL outplayed the league average save % by .007 (.910 to .0903). I'm beginning to lose patience with UPL. It doesn't surprise me though that Adams, who has struggled to nail down goaltending over now 6 seasons, and who is so indecisive that he has 7 goalies in the system who are playing pro-hockey in North America with 6 of them being under contract beyond this season, is not anxious to move on from the goalie he gave a big contract to. Something needs to give though. Ratzlaff and Leinonen need playing time and would both ideally be in the AHL next season. Frankly, the goaltending situation is a microcosm of the larger roster. I was looking at PuckPedia earlier today and I defy anyone to look at the players we hold the rights to beyond this season (under contract or pending RFA) and try to sort out what might even resemble an actual plan. Ray Ferrero still said it best a year or so ago (not quite a direct quote at this point): The Sabres are just a collection of stuff.

To Seattle for Kappo Kakko and a 1st (Seattle has their own and Tampa’s). Seattle wants to get back in the playoffs so they trade for the better player. It’s cap neutral this year for Seattle, and they have space to extend Tuch. Sabres try to thread the needle by getting a good younger, but lesser, player who is under contract for two additional seasons, along with the futures. Kakko’s contract means the Sabres can extend Benson, Doan, Kesselring and still have space to add a significant player through trade or free agency. Kakko has no trade protection.

Based on current standings, the Sabres will need to play at around a .612 points % the rest of the way to get to the playoffs. Only 7 teams in the NHL have played at that level through the first month of the season, so the likelihood that the Sabres will over five months seems, well, pretty low. I guess we should always make room for competency. If the Sabres make the playoffs it will mean that between now and the end of the season they will have leapt over 8 Eastern Conference teams. That simply won’t happen by accident. It will only happen through an unexpected infusion of competence and decisiveness by Adams, that leads them out of the mess of this season (never mind the 14 prior years, this season alone is turning into the sort of embarrassment that might cause a better franchise to publicly apologize to its fanbase). Put another way, if you are concerned that Adams will have his job as GM saved by a Sabre run to the playoffs this season, you need not worry. Now, there may be reason to worry that his job is simply not in jeopardy.

Rod Brind’Amour wasn’t a top-tiered coach when the Hurricanes hired him. And the Hurricanes, while not quite a Sabres-level disaster, had missed the playoffs 9 straight seasons before Brind’Amour was hired. Brind’Amour was an assistant there for 7 of those seasons, so it wasn’t like people knew he was any kind of solution. Maybe Mike Leone is our Brind’Amour. Probably not, but clearly Ruff is not leading this team anywhere positive.

I really think that when it comes to a potential franchise player as a 1st overall pick, the Sabres are headed towards “don’t draft me” territory. It may take a Shanahan level front office hiring to give them the sort of credibility to overcome their reputation.

I’m not sure if this is a hot take or not, but here goes: flip Brind’Amour and Ruff and nothing else, and in 12 months the Sabres are the Hurricanes and the Hurricanes are the Sabres. This is more in praise of Rod than in criticism of Lindy (though Lindy is not a good NHL head coach at this stage). Finding the next Brind’Amour level coach is obviously no easy task. But wasting time on a guy from the past, is just that, wasting time.

When dealing with difficult personal matters, work can sometimes be a refuge, and sometimes a weight.

There is no reason for Adams to overthink this. Of course, it would be nice if we were working with a larger sample size for Ellis. Has an NHL GM ever done more contorting to keep a goalie who his coach, evidently, doesn't have enough confidence in to play? If Adams ever gets himself to a point where he can make an actual decision, and if that decision is that UPL can't be in the NHL any longer, then just waive UPL (assuming there are no trade options). Just tell UPL he is being waived and if he clears he can find a nice place to live in Rochester until he is needed in the NHL; he wouldn't be the first grossly overpaid AHL goalie. - Lyon and Ellis in the NHL - Levi backed up by UPL in the AHL - Georgiev told to go home and find himself a team in Europe that the Sabres can loan him to - Ratzlaff and Leinonen in the ECHL

Losing Dahlin indefinitely is obviously a huge blow and would be to any team. But, this is, presumably, why Adams chose to spend $14.5 million per year on Power and Byram. It is time for them to step up. Most fans, even those excited about Ruff’s return, had some reservations about the hiring process and lack of an actual coaching search. The reasons for hiring the veteran Ruff were “structure and accountability”. Well, here we go. A smartly built NHL team that plays with structure and accountability, would manage in this situation. While I think there is already more than enough evidence to support Adams and Ruff have failed, perhaps it is a test of this magnitude that has been the missing spark behind the failure to ignite. This road trip might be the last meaningful referendum of the Adams era. I don’t expect him to be fired if the team does poorly. But if we come out of this road trip with a winning % in the .300 range, and playing to a pace of 70-75 points, then it is over. Put another way: in year 6, having not made the playoffs in the first 5, there can be no excuses.

Teams that are serious about winning, act in this situation. I have a lot of respect for what Ruff has done for the franchise. He is clearly not the future though. I would honestly welcome Appert as the interim head coach with an interim promotion for Leone or Prospal. It would be far from my 1st choice (Adams should be gone with much broader changes), but it would at least be taking a shot at something. They appear content with letting the season play out with Ruff. It’s not all his fault, but Ruff is not getting the most out of this team.

The Sabres have a .357 winning %. That’s 5th worst in the NHL.

It sort of depends on where you slice the pie. 5-1-4 over the last 10 games is great. 1-0-4 over the last 5 is not so good. On balance, things have been encouraging after the 0-3 start. I think goaltending has been good to very good in all but 2 games. They seem like a more mature group than the last two years. Hopefully Benson, Zucker, and Danforth are all back soon and we will get a closer look at what the near full line-up looks like.

He goes to Rochester I imagine. Whether he stays in Buffalo or gets waived to Rochester, the Sabres will have more goalies than ice time for them.

I think Ellis will be waived as soon as the Sabres are healthy enough to need the 23rd roster spot. I think they have just been waiting for the 30 days to pass in order to increase the likelihood he clears.