Marvin

Welp, even guys with math degrees can screw up their arithmetic in a bar. I am sooooooooooooooooo embarrassed. I had better rethink this.

I went to CapFriendly to work this out You hope that Cozens, Mittlestadt, and/or someone else give you a pair of #2 centres in a few years. Before then, you find a pair of #3Cs. Say Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart total $27M. (Realistic.) Let us take Pilut, Jokiharu, and Dahlin off their ELCs and make them and Miller all top-90 defencemen by salary and Dahlin get $10M, which puts them at $25M. A decent 1B goaltender to go with Ullmark is not going to cost too much. These guys (#15-25) average about $4.5M, so say they are $9M combined. Your 2nd line with everyone between #35-40 in salary makes $14M That's 6F in the top 1/3 of the league, 4D in the top 1/2 of the league, and 2 average G for $67M. Let us look at the bottom half of the roster. No one gets an ELC. Grind-it-out, responsible defencemen are hardly that expensive. I could live with guys like Carl Gunnarsson, Matt Grzelczyk, Braydon Coburn, and Brooks Orpik as #5-8 behind behind Dahlin-Jokiharu and Pilut-Miller. These guys are clear 5-7 defencemen now and would be cheap as FAs. A pair of low-end 4D total $5M. IMHO, you can go the route of the 1995 New Jersey Devils and run a pair of lines like Girgensons-Larsson-Lazar out there for 12 minutes each. Even with Okposo's $6M, you can put 5 other guys there who are #91 and #120 in salary at their positions for $10M total with no one on an ELC. That's $16M total. Incidentally, that is also the cost of a third line of all second-liners ($14M) and a 4th line of guys at the veteran minimum ($2M). The bottom half of the roster is $21M. That's $88M where everybody is in the top 1/2 of salary for their line-up function and Okposo. I think that would be a Cup Contender -- and next season, Dahlin, Pilut, and Jokiharu as still on their ELCs. This gives Cozens and Mittlestadt at the very least 2 seasons to make the team as well.

Ideally, I would like this, because I think this composition is what a real Cup Contender can look like. I am aiming far, far lower with the first batch of ideas because I was thinking about what a Botterill-level GM could do with this team to get it into the playoffs next year -- @Scottysabres point notwithstanding, much as I agree with it. 1. I think of Ullmark currently as a low tier #1 goaltender (think Martin Biron or Clint Malarchuk) and think that we could make the playoffs with a similar goaltender. That seems realistic for Botterill. If we want to be a Cup contender, either he improves to clear #1 level or someone better comes along so that we have a very good #2 that we have confidence in. 2, 3. Mair-Gaustad-Kaleta is a lot like how I see Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo. However, I can live with them as a 3rd line for this season. Can JNot improve rest of the bottom 6 and the centre spine by next season? The above dovetails into another issue. One poster on HFBoards found a collection of stats that showed that Skinner and Johansson were far better off on different lines. With our current line-up, the best I think we could do for a top 6 is Olofsson-Eichel-Johansson and Skinner-Lazar-Reinhart. That's how badly we need middle 6 centres. 4. That was my point about balance on defence. I need a couple of guys to allow guys like Dahlin and Jokiharu to freelance, to win puck battles along the boards, and to help with more physical teams. IMHO, our current defence can get us to the playoffs, but we would be lucky to last 6 games with it. @Ducky is also correct - if he doesn't regain form, the Skinner contract will be a killer for a LONG time. I have accepted that Okposo is overpaid, but can have a positive impact on a 4th line as he is now. 5. If Botterill gets the team to a point that we have 2006 playoffs Tim Connolly as our #3 Centre, I might just take back some of the nasty things I have said about him so far. Maybe. ?

It is uncommon. However, Had the Sabres kept the co-captains, that 4th line of Mair, Gaustad, Kaleta, et al. could have lasted a while.

Nope. No kidding. These guys are fragile - scared and fragile.

I thought this came after you went into an empty arena for the next game and asked, "Hello, is there anybody in there? ..."

These are not the scorers you are looking for.

And Eichel looked hurt.

I gotta start somewhere. I just was thinking about the base before we do anything. I would imagine no more than 6 of those D survive a purge. Some of those forwards get traded. But that's the base.

Repeat after me: "The guy behind the net can't score from there." --- Jim Schoenfeld.

Let's see. Eichel (1C), Dahlin(1LD), Oloffson (1LW), Skinner (1LW), Jokiharu (1RD), and Ullmark (1G) definitely. Probably also Johansson (2RW), Reinhart (1RW), Pilut (2LD), Ristolainen (2RD). Can't move Okposo (4RW). That's 6F, 4D, 1G. I want 9F, 4D, and 1G more. We have a surfeit of defencemen, so Miller, Hickey, Bryson, Nelson, Borgen, Fitzgerald, Gilmour, and MacWilliam should produce 4. Forwards are thin: after Asplund, Cozens, Mittlestadt, Thompson, and maybe Lazar, we have what look like a bunch of borderline NHLers: Dea, Malone, Oglevie, CJ Smith, Wilson, Cornel. I need at least 2 C's if Cozens and Mittlestadt are not ready. I also need a 2G. The GM has work to do.

The one thing I would like a new stick to have is a different sound when the puck hits it when the stick has a crack. You could always tell to change your wooden stick just by the sound off the puck hitting it.

Thanks! How is it properly spelled? Maybe I should go "Dwayne. Duane, and Dwain" in honour of "Larry, his brother Darrell, and his other brother Darryl."

I think a name tag of "Duane" for Sunday's game will be my start. I want to see what the ushers do when I show it to them.

^AGREED! If Skinner's not going to be with Eichel, I was thinking that maybe Skinner-Lazar-Johansson could do something constructive.

I empathise with the need to vent on JNot. But I want to add something to the conversation: I want to know what steps the Sabres need to make to become a clear playoff team and the steps to become a contender thereafter. For instance, even though I doubt JNot can do it, I think he can make the Sabres a playoff team next season with some minor changes; contending is another matter entirely. (I don't know how to improve grit, but if you have a concrete idea, I would love to know.) Playoffs only - IMHO, 1 of these put them into playoff contention; all of them make the team a solid playoff bet: 1. Get at least an average back-up goaltender. As many have said, if Hutton had just been merely average, the Sabres would be in the thick of the playoff race. If we add the extra rest that Ullmark could have got, I think that puts us well into a Wild Card spot. 2. Distribute the forwards and defencemen in the system better to be able to consistently dress 12F-6D each game with relatively set lines and pairings with players clearly able to play at that level. The juggling Krueger needs to do makes me wonder if just having a set line-up would help with preparation and chemistry. 3. Have at least 4 actual, NHL-level, natural centres on the Sabres's roster. This is the most glaring weakness on a roster pock-marked with them. You don't try to convert someone to centre unless injuries get really bad. I imagine Skinner and Johansson would love a natural centre to be with them. Contenders - I think they need all of these: 1. Get at least 1, preferably 2 #2 centres --- even if they are both 2c level.. I would like my 3c to be at least Peter McNab quality, although Dave Hannan is more realistic (2006 Playoffs Tim Connolly is not). Heck, just a bunch of hard working 3-4 centres would work. (Think the quartet of Roy, Gaustad, Mair, and Novotny that the Sabres used during the injury-filled 2005-6 season when Briere, Hecht, and Connolly were all out of the line-up.) 2. Have a good goaltending tandem. Miller-Biron is my model here, although maybe one of Edwards-Sauve, Barrasso-Puppa, or Puppa--Malarchuk is the more realistic model. 3. Get balance on defence. We need at least a couple of solid, defencive defencemen to go with all the puck-movers. 4. Add real quality depth. One of the reasons I like 2005-7 as a model is because we had guys like Roy (he started in Rochester), Pominville, Novoty, Paille, Stafford, Thorburn, MacArthur, Ryan, and Kaleta to play with the big club. Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo is a great bottom 6 line; it should not be the 2nd best line most nights.

FYI - Here are the top Centres in the organisation: Buffalo: Eichel, Lazar, Larsson, plus Girgensons with Johansson and Rodrigues, and, theoretically, Reinhart. Rochester: Mittlestadt, Asplund, Oglevie, plus Malone Other: Cozens, Hurley, Davidson, Glotov, Pekar, Ruotsalainen If I am thinking about line-ups, I make my defence pairs and list my centres top-down in order. I then fill in the wingers around them. This is a complete failure on roster-building at centre.

We don't have enough forwards in Buffalo and Rochester to trade all of Frolik, Girgensons, Larsson, Sheary, and Vesey for picks unless we want to see 10F-8D dressing in both Rochester and Buffalo. Have a look at the forwards left once VO comes back and assuming Okposo does too: Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart; Skinner - Lazar - Johansson, Rodrigues - Asplund - Okposo, Wilson - Oglevie - Elie, CJ Smith - Mittlestadt - D. Smith, Murray - Malone - Cornel, Burton - Porter - Leier, Aquin - Rendell - ??? At that point, we are dipping into the 12 forwards in Cincinnati.

Did I read that right - thousands dead?

In this way, I do think it would benefit the Pegulas to watch: The Hockey Guy lays down a clear metric for the team: 4-5 years maximum on a rebuild. Of course, that implies that GMTM and Disco Dan Bylsma should have got another year, which may or may not have been a good thing. Terry and Kim would see that non-Sabres fans think this is crap. They would also see that bullying the local sports media -- as bad as they are -- is a waste of time and only adds to the negative energy. There is no stopping the fans' disgust from getting beyond WNY -- Duane and Melody Martin are LEAGUE-WIDE stories. They can't stick their fingers in their ears and deny that something different has happened and everyone knows about it. I believe JNot when he says that Terry and Kim don't like what's going on. But only they can get 28 functioning AHL and NHL forwards in Buffalo and Rochester, not have 19 different defencemen available for the NHL and AHL to start the season (includes Hunwick and Scandella), have 4 natural NHL-calibre centres on the NHL roster, and an alternative for back-up goaltender ready. Without a doubt, this is absolutely positively the worst roster construction I have ever seen for a non-tanking team in my lifetime. This is on JNot, Terry, and Kim. ASIDE: I love what the Pegulas have done locally. They have helped the mindset of locals by helping improve downtown. -- we used to be defencive about being from Buffalo before them; I can not describe how much their spending has helped the community. I will forever be grateful to them for helping my hometown find itself again. They have done everyone here a great favour by getting involved. HOWEVER: Their management of the Sabres still sucks.

It takes a few days for food that has been refrigerated to spoil. (I found that out in the 2006 October Surprise storm.) If you have gas heat, try cooking most of it with something very spicy that kills a lot of microbes and such. (Alternatively, cook outside on a grill or in a pit.) It is one of the reasons poor people in much of the world make so much spicy food: it gives it a longer shelf life. My Dad's family were farmers and my Mom's were fishermen; they needed these tricks in bad seasons so that the entire village could eat. I hope this helps. Thanks for the update.

Let us know when you have an update. I hope you and your family are well.

I figure this is like this tracking the stock market and such. You can't track everything, so you try to determine what the most relevant facts are that you can easily collect. Then you make a model using whatever methods are relevant and at your disposal. Aside on modelling - When I took engineering modelling in college, my prof explained models this way: You can have several models of a tree. You can have a pre-schooler draw a tree which has a brown or grey trunk and a tuft of green that is supposed to be the leaves. You then have that of an amateur artist which has the raised ground for the roots, some extra lines drawn in the trunk for the bark, slightly irregular shaping to the trunk, some branches below the leaves, and the leaves being a bit more individualised within a large green area. Lastly, you have a professional artist draw a generic tree with all the nuance and detail to make it individual. In real life, we use use the pre-schooler's model and hope to get the kindergarten version before it gets too complex.

Addendum: Maybe everyone who goes to the game should wear a "Hello, My Name Is ________" sticker with the name "Duane" written in.

I did not see this posted elsewhere: