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Everything posted by Marvin
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Can the Mittelstadt Line Continue as a 2nd Scoring Line Moving Forward?
Marvin replied to Taro T's topic in The Aud Club
How about as a 3rd scoring line behind Reinhart's and Eichel's? -
GDT: Sabres at Penguins May 8, 2021 • 3:00PM ET MSG-B, WGR
Marvin replied to Doohicksie's topic in The Aud Club
"Penguins is practically chicken." Hockey Gods, "pardon me, but could you help out an NHL franchise and its fans who are down on their luck?" -
Wow. There was only one real playoff race.
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Almost as important as the Head Coach are his assistants and the coaching in Rochester. We need to get all of these right.
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GDT: Sabres at Penguins May 8, 2021 • 3:00PM ET MSG-B, WGR
Marvin replied to Doohicksie's topic in The Aud Club
Miracle Whip Motivated Whistleblower -
That team has far, far, far, far, far better skaters than the tank teams. It is not close. One of the many problems with XHCDDB for this team is that he's terrible for young players. He is justifiably notorious for mishandling youth like Zemgus and Larry. His system may not emasculate talent like XHCRK's did, but it is not too far from it.
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I suspect the players may have a say in what happens. Guys who came in from the outside this season may have important input. And some former Sabres will tell GMKA what they are hearing around the league.
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I agree. For anyone knows, this could be an excellent draft -- we just have scant evidence. The scouts are likely to miss a lot more good players and select more clunkers at the top of the draft. IMHO, the reason thus draft is considered "weak" is because there is not a broad, wide, or deep overall consensus about who slots where. More importantly for the bottom lines of the pundits and their employers, they can't get clicks second-guessing picks for months because nobody really knows what is going on. It won't be as simple criticising the Sabres for, say, taking Berniers over Eklund, Guenther, and Power. Heaven forfend that they will need to work on their articles analysing and reporting on player development.
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We could try resigning Larsson and play Cozens with either Eichel or Reinhart while the other gets Ruotsalainen. Signing real 4C's is a more conventional plan.
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I am expecting COG to be LOG with more scoring because of Cozens's skill. It breaks him in at centre better as well. Also, I did think of a way to satisfy my needs for the line-up and make the bigger changes you want in the top 6. You convinced me that it needed to be considered more thoroughly. So, with a little luck, we may both get what we want and what the other guy wants. 🙂
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This is one reason I think that if he plays centre next year, I want him with, I hope, Okposo and Girgensons to learn the job and learn from two veterans who play like he does. That would also force an acquisition for the top 9 and rebalance the lines -- but I would be lying if I claimed it were serendipitous. He would still get PP2 time. As of now, our lines would be: Skinner-Eichel-Ruotsalainen Bjork-Reinhart-Olofsson Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson Girgensons-Cozens-Okposo
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He deserves it.
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We would like to protect all of Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Asplund, Mittlestadt, and Thompson; we must protect Skinner. That leaves Bjork out. I am trying to figure out who else we would need to protect unless we need to protect Cozens and I don't understand the rules. The system's orientation is different. It is geared for attacking and forward movement. But because we are pretty young, especially on the defence, we make a lot of turnovers from the defence. Moreover, the young guys often lose their checks in their own zone, so there are more chances both on the initial shot and on rebounds. This is less common now, but the improvement is incremental. The opposition is far stronger on average now and is more capable in puck possession and puck pursuit. So the Sabres are having a much harder time breaking up rushes and causing turnovers. Additionally, they are being pressured more effectively and are turning the puck over more often. They are slowly improving here overall. Lastly, when you are rolling out #4, #5, and #6 on your goaltending depth chart, teams are just shooting more, hoping to find an obvious weakness. IMHO, the team has sacrificed some defence for offence, but the problems are less systemic and more inexperience. But the play in the opposition half of the ice is so vastly improved that I feel the trade-off is worth it.
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I broke my promise and voted for the playoffs.
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Will Jack's Role On This Team Be Different Next Year?
Marvin replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
Fascinating. -
That's amazing. A bright spot in this horrendous year.
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They must make some changes. They need at least 1 goaltender for Buffalo, whoever he be, and either another guy for Rochester with UPL in Buffalo or, my preferred route, a competent NHL goaltender. Let us eliminate the cheapo goals against. Unless they are willing to accept continued mistakes on the back-end because of youth and lack of hockey sense, they need at least 1 veteran defenceman; my preference is for 2. Let us cut down on the turnovers which lead to odd-man rushes. We need to drive Eakin into Rochester and fill in the bottom of the roster. Let us stop getting caved in on 1 line each game. We need at least 1 upgrade in the top 6. This team has a hard time finishing sentence, let alone scoring chances. We also need some different styles. I would prefer to upgrade 2 spots. In order, that gives: 1st goaltender, 1st defenceman, 1st top 6 forward, bottom of forwards, 2nd goaltender, 2nd defenceman, 2nd top 6 forward. They have about $19M to work with. Goaltenders are about $4M each at my desired performance level. Defencemen are $3M at my desired performance level. Top 6 forwards probably cost $3-5M more each for the desired upgrades. Bottom of the roster is about $2M total.
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Like I said before, it was going to be a sad day in Buffalo when he retired. It is particularly unhappy that is has been during this drek.
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Until I see the line-up, coach, etc., I will not vote.
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I am open to trading players and picks for upgrades; indeed, IMHO, we must use some assets the strengthen the top 9 a bit. I appear to want to spend more on the bottom of the forward roster than you are. BIAS ALERT: the memories from the early Sabres teams biased me towards depth and more overall balance in ice time because that was how the Flyers, Islanders, and Bruins would beat us: from the 3rd pairs, 4th lines, and in goal. Also, the 1996-2001 Sabres teams were successful in spite of not having a real top line because they had Hasek, depth, and balance. The 2005-11 Sabres had key contributions from the bottom of the roster and organisational depth. Thus, if we could recreate the LOG line or something like it, I would do it -- even though it would leave only about $2-3M to upgrade the top 6 -- because they would suck up tough defencive minutes against the other team's top lines and allow us to put the top 3 lines out against lesser competition in favourable situations.
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I would like to, but the price and priority worry me. I am working from Gabrielor's $8M max before I do anything. I assume Miller ($3.9M) and Ristolainen ($5.4M) are traded and Girgensons ($2M) is in Seattle. That leaves me about $19M to work with. My top priority is a 1A-1B goaltending tandem above UPL. I call that $7M. That leaves $12M. My next priority is two middle-pair defencive defencemen later in their careers as partners for Jokiharu and Dahlin. Based on salaries for the guys I would want, these are $6M. That leaves $6M for the forwards. I need to assume $2M for the bottom of the roster, but I push Eakin to the minors to give me $5M more for the top 9. My top 9 base is Skinner-Eichel-Ruotsalainen, Cozens-Reinhart-Olofsson, and Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson. I assume Skinner is quasi-productive or else the team is dead in the water for the next 5 years. I don't see why I can't make hockey trades which add at most $5M and still make that top 9 overall a bit above average. Please tell me what I am missing.
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I think we are on the same page. Some clarification: 1. Larsson apparently signed in Arizona for less than Buffalo offered. I would like to try bringing him back because there were games where I really missed the LOG line. 2. I want a veteran goalie as 1A to Ullmark. 3. Ideally, we would get 3 mid-level defencemen, 1 for each pairing, but I think the price would be too high if I want to fix the forwards.
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I can agree with this. I think Eichel makes the team 1 line better. That's not trivial, but IMHO that still puts us about middle of the pack for the top 9 forwards -- assuming normal growth of the youth and normal declines for the veterans. The defence clearly needs 2 solid veterans. There will be a lot of growth there -- and a lot of mistakes. But with development and chemistry, the should become solid before long. We probably need to rely more than other teams on goaltending. That is why Ullmark's and UPL's play has been heartening for me. Add a solid veteran and we should be OK. Our 4th line has got to be better. We need to be at least solid there. Ideally, that line is like the LOG line and drive the opponents' top lines crazy. This need not cost much, but chemistry is so very important. The easiest thing would be to make an analogue to our 1998-9 bottom line.
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I will use Gabrielor's high end salary estimates with a trade of Ristolainen as my base. (IMHO, Dahlin and Reinhart will be $7M rather than 8, but let us plan for the harder scenario.) I make additions and changes from here. I expect Girgensons to be taken by Seattle. 1. Forwards Skinner-Eichel-Cozens Ruotsalainen-Reinhart-Olofsson Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson Bjork-Sheahan-Okposo Reider-Eakin-Caggiula 2. Defence Dahlin-Bryson Borgen-Jokiharu Samuelsson-Miller Laaksonnen-Fitzgerald 3. Goal Ullmark Pekka-Lukkonen Tokarski Houser Lekkas When I include injuries, I expect to need 5 forward lines, 4 defencive pairs, and 5 goaltenders for this team just to be safe. With that as my base, I have $8M from @Gabrielor, $5M from Ristolainen, and $2M from Girgensons, which leaves us $15M to spend. Knocking off, say, $7M for goaltenders leaves $8M overall. We must acquire at least 1 veteran defenceman for the youth. Ideally, Miller ($3M) is replaced and we have at least 1 veteran D on each side. I would prefer boring, stay-at-home types to cover for jaunts by Dahlin and Jokiharu because the are needed and are cheaper. By my estimate of higher-end middle-pairing defencive defenceman (2×3.5M), that leaves $4M for the forwards. Here, I need a creative hockey trade. I want to be locked in with Eichel and Reinhart. Skinner and Okposo are not going anywhere -- no matter how much people wish it. I would prefer to force Eakin and Caggiula into Rochester, whence they come up only in an emergency. I need hockey trades to replace some wingers to get a better mix of players in the top 9. In this salary structure, ideally the 4th line has interchangeable parts and plays like the LOG line. I think this can be done with the room left. I wonder how Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson would fare against other 3rd lines.