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Everything posted by Broken Ankles
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Let me add to the plethora of positive transactions JB has made in a short time in Buffalo. These are outside the aforementioned Skinner and and good fortune of Dahlin (which also is understated, Murray was a jinx that lost all his Draft lotteries in Buffalo. Luck matters.) * Signing Lawrence Pilut. * Drafting and more importantly convincing UPL to play in the OHL and eventually Rochester. * D. O'Reagan (for Roch) and a 1st for Kane. * 6th Round Pick to Vegas to take Carrier and not select Linus in Expansion Draft. * Zack Redmond (Roch contributor) for Deslauriers * Brandon Hickey for H. Fasching. * Signing Will Borgen (and developing properly) * Signing Asplund and getting him to develop in Roch. * UFA Carter Hutton to team friendly 3 year deal. (And I think this is undervalued thus far. Lehner is having a nice (Lucky?) year, but Hutton is a true Pro and will serve as a proper role model for Linus and a good back up over the next 2 years. * Equitable Bridge deal for Sam that allows flexibility for trade after 2020 or signing a lucrative long term deal if he continues to ascend. But it was the cogent decision to bridge. * Promising growth on later round selections in 2018 - Samuelsson, Pekar and Kukkonen. Too early to quantify anything. I think deals like Wilson, Sheary, Beaulie, Bailey, Baptiste, Fedun are all a wash. They were either non-factors or involved insignificant and /or lower draft picks. so for each swing and miss: a.) Pominville/Scandella deal b.) Mismanagement of Mittlestadt (I agree with your assessment) there are more positive moves, in my opinion. How do I get there? Both the compete level of the team and the the record of both Rochester and Buffalo is better than it was two years ago or last year. And this includes losing its best Center from last season. While you have already decided the O'Reilly trade is a colossal failure (incorrectly I might add), I need at least two years to decide who wins this trade. And in this two years, Tampa Bay and Toronto will continue to dominate the East. O'Reilly on the Sabres this year or next would not affect this result. By his third season, Dahlin will have the experience and talent (think Drew Doughty year 3/4 in LA) to take this team to the next level. And IF (leap of faith) - Tage can develop, increase his strength, and contribute in top 6 capacity, and JB spends the $7.5M AAV that would have been designated to an aging 30+ Center on other Free Agent(s), and the first and second round picks we receive from St. Louis have moderate success, then he can win that one too. I know Terry Pegs has lots of cash, but money was also a factor in when the trade was made, so there is that. So I'll provide JB enough slack to spend that money this off season and next, and use those 3 first round picks (and properly develop) before I condemn him and suggest he's damaged the team. This jury member needs time to deliberate.
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Didn’t you comment on lack of success on 2nd round picks last week? And went through all the examples? Maybe Die by the Blade is scrolling though these posts looking for ideas.
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Do you like Gladiator movies?
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Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition
Broken Ankles replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Those that cannot remember the past ......... -
Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition
Broken Ankles replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
And the Sabres could have netted: Jack Boeser Beauviller Aho And Carlo.... but we got “Murried” -
Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition
Broken Ankles replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Debrusk will contribute. But I agree with the larger point about 3 picks in a loaded draft and coming away with only one. 2016 first rounder was Charlie McAvoy, who looks like a home run. And Pastrnak in 2014. Three years of hitting allowed them to take a chance and trade 2018's 1st round - although not to any success. Also - Drouin was not a Bruin. Seguin? -
When he was last on WGR he stated that while he always wants to add scoring and skill he did not want to trade draft picks (not specific rounds but picks in general) OR Young players. He said that while this might add immediate scoring it would only push the problem down a few years. I have a feeling this is partially true. He is against a rental, but might walk back his comment about trading a pick or a player come June. If we were playing ‘Card Sharks’, I’d say the likelihood JB trades for any rental is low. 18%. I also look to see if Nylander is given a real look after the break. If he doesn’t get a sniff I think his chances for being part of a package increase.
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Oilers vs Sabres - who has the brighter future?
Broken Ankles replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I’m a fan of Sam but he is not better than Leon. Like 100 points less with only 20 less games played. Leon can play FL#1 and put up gaudy numbers. He can also Center FL#2 and provide secondary scoring with average forwards. Neither are elite at much else. -
Bovada had this game with the Canuck' as a slight favorite this morning, changing to even money (-110) by Noon. This includes a Goaltender with exactly one NHL start and their star rookie Elias Pettersson still out. The road trip is not excessive in length, nor does Vancouver a superior Home record. Or the Sabres a poor road record. I'm in for a dime on the Sabres tonight. I expect at least 3 goals from FL#1 with maybe another few chipping in. If this team is in the discussion for an 8 seed or higher, they win this game.
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I think the concern many have regarding statistics is how many posters use them to justify or contend a position, often times without ever seeing that player or team over a period of time. Obviously the tools are more robust and should be used "in addition to", not "in replacement of" game management by Coaches and GM's. Most of which have far more experience than any of us. I personally dislike when some throw Corsi/Fenwick/HDCF% stats as an absolute or empirical truth in rating a player. Empirical data is acquired by observation or experimentation. Often times the data is anecdotal, but those that quote the stats are reticent to accept it as such. I think your observations on the scoring chances inside the high danger zones are valid, and definitely a concern on the PP. But I would argue that our shots from the point are not a problem. Our problem is deflections (or lack thereof) and rebounds. Weak players like Casey Middlestadt, Tage Thompson and Conor Sheary contribute to this. In EDM, their first two goals were from inside, but both deflections. Buffalo tries, but their not as effecitve in execution based on talent or net front presence? Their last goal was a rebound, slammed home by Leon, as was Johnny Hockey's first period goal last night. I can think of a dozen more that did not result in a goal due to luck, good saves or missed shots by the opposition. Hopefully these charts can help identify the gaps and improve our Defensive positioning, and recognizing other teams strengths when game planning. But I refuse to accept these as absolute truths when things like how a goaltender can impact this number, or how a failed clear in the D-zone by a player that should not be on the team 30 seconds before this shot/goal was made affected it. And with respect to the PP, I have watched a fair amount of Calgary games, and their passing inside is a function of size and skill. The Sabres had to have seen this in video before the game as CGY has scored like this the entire year, and yet teams still struggle agaisnt it. Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk are better suited than Skinner/Eichel or Skinner/Reinhart to execute these plays. But to your point, maybe the Sabres should try to replicate. At this point, our PP needs to try something new. Lastly to your Pilut point. Data and more importantly the eye test says he should be playing over Scandella. But we don't know what Phil has been told. I myself think the conspiracy theory that Botts wants to trade Macro has legs, so the decision was to sit Pilut over Nate so he could showcase Scandella could be valid. In saying this, I also cannot simply have my stat department tell my head coach who should be playing each night.
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Jbot Do Something Already - 4 Saving the Playoffs Edition
Broken Ankles replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
This is an excellent point. Largely overlooked when you review the history of trades at the deadline. Either a prospect that becomes something, or an additional lower round draft selection in addition to the player that eventually becomes something. I'm also confused by the discussion that it's a buyers’ market. It’s always been a sellers’ market. Last year saw trades of Nash, Brassard, McDonough and JT Miller, Tatar, Kane, Stastny and Hartman all yield a first round pick plus more. Every year some GM get stupid. If we agree we are not going “all in” on a top-flight UFA rental that will cost at least a first round plus, then let’s look at the secondary rentals from last year. Michael Grabner, Ian Cole, Tomas Plekanec, Vanek, Maroon, Brandon Davidson, Frank Vatrano, Nick Holden, Petr Mrazek, Michal Kempny are all 2nd or 3rd round (or equal value). Outside of Thomas Vanek having a very strong finish to 2018, how did the others perform? Spoiler alert. Not well. Then you get down to the low-end market. These hockey trades/rentals returned a fourth round or lower. Joe Morrow, Nick Shore, Mike Reilly, Ryan Graves, Mark Letestu, Eric Fehr, Nikita Soshnikov, and Scott Wilson. Reality check time - no one is getting any immediate value trading or 4-7th round pick. These guys are 4th liners who grind or a seventh D man that serves as a just in case. Looking at this year’s UFA’s/Trade bait, and excluding those like Duchene, Steen, Simmonds, Carter, Hayes, Panarin and Nyquist as they would appear to require a First round +, who on this secondary market are you willing to part with Guehle or Pecar and a 3rd, 4th or 5th ? Ferland, Silverberg, Nemestnikov, Zuccarello, Coyle? For my money, I would rather us try to bundle a player (Scandella, Beaulieu), prospect (Guhele) and a First round pick for a younger player under our control for at least three more years that is considered bottom six but could grow into a top six. If at all. As I’m convinced that a call up from Rochester for Bailey, Olofsson, or Nylander might deliver the same results. -
Don’t forget about the 2014 second round picks (+ McNabb) TM traded for Fasching. Two there. In 2015 the Guhle pick was 51. Murray traded our second (31 overall) to Colorado. This spot still had the likes of Aho, Carlo, Fischer and Greenway available. Lastly a 2016 2nd round pick for Josh Georges.
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Nephew. And he is a good man.
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Good points. Then what is the reason for Casey Middelstadt being measured on a different scale than Nylander? They are drafted in the same #8 position in the first round, so arguably similar skill/projected talent. They are about the same age (Nylander one draft year ahead and about 7 months older). Its not like Casey blew him away in camp. His play has been below average, and he is playing a more difficult and demanding position (Center) than Nylander could play (RW). Yet Casey is with the big club and Alex in the AHL. Why does he not get, or deserve the same protection? The only thing I keep coming back to is Alex was drafted by TM and Casey by JB.
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GDT - Devils @ Sabres, 7:00pm MSG, 1/8/2019
Broken Ankles replied to North Buffalo's topic in The Aud Club
While he is not listed as C or playing in the D zone, is Sam not the making the plays of a true C in the O-zone? He was behind the net, creating chances and scoring opportunities which is what has been missing on our 2nd line. Call him C or RW but I’m onboard him moving to his own line. I’m also keeping Tage at RW when Jack returns. Casey scored but overall did not impress. Struggled mightily on a few occasions to get the puck out of his zone. Ready for Vlad to slide to 3C and Casey to learn how to ride a bus for a few months. -
Agreed. Pilut has proved his worth since his call up. A recent analysis on Sabres D-men below. My eye test says the same. For those who believe you must have a pick, player and a prospect to get something in return, Pilut may make Scandella and Guehle expendable come trade deadline. https://apple.news/AkEbDGfPKSm- I would also add that Smith has not been great but better than Elie in a much smaller sample size. So not a complete washout.
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GDT - Boston Bruins v. Buffalo Sabres - January 5, 2019 - 7:00
Broken Ankles replied to Samson's Flow's topic in The Aud Club
I like the move to keep Linus, but why can’t you reevaluate the other forward lines. Just because you got a much needed home win against Florida with superior play by your first line (shocking), does not excuse the poor play by other forwards. Maybe the injury to Jack is precluding any other moves until he returns. Bovada has the Bruins as -220 on the Moneyline. At home, and their injuries are not what they were when we beat them earlier in December this game has the signs of going sideways. Especially without Captain Jack. If they somehow win, it would display the mettle and growth of a team that can compete down the stretch. Fingers crossed. -
Agree completely on #1. I don’t know if Sam or Skinner are either but I need to trust Jason. 2. Possible middle 6 on entry level will be Nylander, Oloffsson, Asplund, Casey (on a bridge deal -no way he gets anything close to more than two year extension) and the hopefully one of two first rounders from this year hit. And maybe a diamond in the rough like Peker. Samuelsson and Pilut on ELC for D. Although I expect a UFA to be signed in 2020 if they part with Bogo and Scandella to play top pairing minutes with Dahlin. 3. Linus is under control for 2 more? More experience and a controllable salary. unreasonable to think Hutton cannot give you this in his last year @ age 35?
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It’s obvious you cannot win a Cup with players on large AAV’s. See Pittsburgh 2017 salary of Leteng, Sidney, Kessel, and Malkin. They had an average of $8.3m for their top 4. The timeline is not Jack, it’s Rasmus. I expect at least one of the first rounders this year to contribute top 6 minutes on the 2020/21 team. By then Rasmus will have established himself as a dominate force on defense. And if Rasmus gets a $12m deal for 2021 so be it. Based on an estimated $90m cap, you will have plenty of room for Skinner, Jack, Dahlin and TBD (Sam?). Bottom line, this year it’s important to take a step, not win the Cup. Concede this year to TB and Toronto. Continued progress next year. It’s just 3.5 years removed from the most egregious and reckless attempt to mortgage the future by an incompetent GM. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.