Broken Ankles

Building a Culture? More like ....

NHL – Wayne Gretzky. MLB – Deadball era (Ruth), modern (Mays), post modern (Trout) NFL – Brady (as much as I hate it) NBA – Jordan Golf – Nicklaus Tennis – Serena Williams Boxing – Ali. Beach Volleyball - Walsh/Treanor Curling - Kevin Martin Rollerball - Jon-a-than

"Remember the 5 D's of dodgeball: Dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge." - Patches O'Houlihan

I think @SwampD asked for this earlier in the string. Both are from Natural Stat Trick - The first one is Risto only and his partners. The second one is various partner combinations. Some of the metrics suggest D-men like Pilut and McCabe played better with Risto than Bogo. McCabes numbers with players other than Bogo or Risto are also better, but is it b/c of a smaller sample size and heavy offensive zone Faceoff's? Risto and Pilut seemingly dominate play from a CF/FF perspective. They also have a positive High Danger % for and against but they get outscored. Go figure. Looks like Risto played about two games worth with Hunwick. Results on CF/FF are good. HFCF% - positive, HDGA - even. Protected minutes with 56% Offensive zone FO's yet badly outscored when on the ice. For me it comes down to Dahlin. Huge sample size with Bogo and Risto, and better with Bogo. Add in Dahlin assuming the PP#1 minutes, and gradually assuming PK minutes translate to a diminishing asset with a steady and high AAV. We don't need to pay a #4 D pairing $5.4M.

I wouldn’t say Scandella ever played “well”. He was/is replacement level his entire time as a Sabre I always liked Pommers and happy to have him return, but I liked Foligno more considering his age, term, his style of play and his AAV. You are absolutely correct it was an attempt to do something which should not be dismissed.

Like Dudacek said, he did NOTHING his first year.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/sabres-vladimir-sobotka-wont-face-buyout/ Hammy got this from the JB presser on June 21st which is still archived in the WGR/Radio.com App. Under Sabres Hockey folder. Around 9 minutes in was asked about Vladdy and then in general and said he does not expect using any buyouts.

+ 1 to this point. If I recollect, the NJD were under the Salary cap floor with $30M to spend in 2015. Conversely JB had cap hits like Moulson, Okposo, Pommers, Georges, Bogo and others which takes time to correct. Of course he did not help himself with adding Scandella and Pouliet to the mix. other points: Fun fact. Las Vegas has the NJD Win total at 88 points for 2019 and Sabres at 84. How is it that a team adding an all world D-man PK Suban, the league MVP who missed all last year, and the #1 overall is only 4 points better than the Sabres? This is Shero's 5th year. Palmeiri was added in 2015. the additions were over those 5 seasons, not three. Their awesome playoff run was losing in the first round 4 games to 1. I don't watch junior hockey but most of the sites I read do not have their farm system above the Sabres. In fact, Shero should be highly criticized for the failure of the 2015 draft where he drafted Zacha over about a dozen others more highly regarded. We all know the names. His 2016 first rounder looks suspecious. Six goals last year in the AHL for Binghamton? The trade for Mirco Mueller (2nd +4th) highly questionable. The Vataneen and Hall trades were highly successful, and should be louded except their are both UFA's and will be expecting significant pay increases next season. To me Shero is comme ci, comme ca. Not reading his book on how to be an NHL GM.

Isn't the marker for decline 30? Both Ovi and Patrice are same age - 34. Since turning 30, Ovi has averaged 47 goals a year, 80 points a year, and 20 minutes of Ice-time. Which is exactly 17 more goals a year, 13 more total points a year, and almost a minute of TOI than Patrice. Also more durable playing an average of 9 more games a year than Bergeron. He's a Captain, and has more cups during this period (2015-present). Ovi is in the top 5 until he isn't. Showing no signs of decline. If anyone is going to fall off, it's Patrice Oh, and if hasn't been mentioned, he's a Bruin.

Rochelle Rochelle - good movie, but perhaps a better Broadway musical adaptation, starring Bette Midler. Either way, I prefer Checkmate.

I guess that means GMs are “people” too. ?

I had Cap Friendly open, so I pulled his contract terms. Not sure how the signing bonus works. Could be paid each year.

We have $33.4M coming off next year. Reinhart might be $8m, and Montour $5-6m? What's $1M going to help next year when there are no UFA's worthy of chasing?

This was my assumption as well, which is why I think the buyout is a better option. Two million this year (or $1.1m more than waivers) is better than having all $3.5M next year. With all the other contracts coming off the books (Hunwick, Scandella, Bogo, Sheary) coupled with an extremely weak UFA market, I'd rather free up as much space this year and take the extra $1m next. Plus its sending a message to those who are perceived as just cashing a check. If I am the owner, and I can save $1M knowing this guy will not help our team this year, I buyout 7 days a week. Keeping him is a gamble I would not take. Bigger upside, but probability is lower.

I see 1 & 2 both unlikely, unless other pieces are moved. Leaving #3 as most likely. My question is do the Sabres feel if push comes to shove, your 4th scenario plays out. It's unlikely he can collect a $3M salary in a European league, so is he content to play it out in the AHL? Or is the quality of life and a lower salary make #4 more enticing. In other words, an educated guess that Sobotka might walk could pay off for getting him off your roster, with zero long term cap implications.

@Taro T - Question: If we believe JBot has no intention to buyout Sobotka's contract, is this a game of chicken whereby a player could be waived, and we assume unlikely picked up by any other team, and instead of reporting to Rochester and playing out his contract for $3.0m ($3.5M cap), he decides to play elsewhere? Thereby saving the team the $3M and the full cap hit? With a downside of having him report, and saving about $900K on the cap but paying the full $3M.

He’s not on LTIR. Yes, oft injured, but has played parts of every year with the ducks. Which is why I think it qualifies as a bad contract. As opposed to say Nathan Horton who we know would never play but is not disadvantageous to his team because he doesn’t count against the cap.

How is Ryan Kesler not in this list? His last two years have been invisible to the Ducks. He is 34, has three more years at $6.875m (almost a mill more than Kyle). Okposo has averaged almost 40 points his last/only three years with the Sabres vs Keslers 25. And he is three years younger.

Named Captain of Western Michigan as a Sophomore. And his pedigree is superior, which is undervalued.

@Neo Thank you for this post. I’m in Washington DC with family and we just watched an amazing program put on by the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum at the National Mall. Video and audio of the take off, landing and then parachuting back to earth. The video was displayed on big screens throughout but the masterpiece was how it was shown on the Washington Monument. Wish you were you here to share the good feelings with 100k+ who came out to watch. They will have a second showing of the video that starts at 10:46pm so the moon landing scene is exactly 50 years to the second.

This is spot on. I would only add that his changes on Defense & forthcoming changes on Defense also reveal it too was a contributing factor in his mind, and can be improved upon. JB is tied to this duo for at least one more year, and probably two as a bridge to UPL. If either goalie fails next season, it’s a huge black eye for him.

Granted there is an Apples to oranges comparison based on salary discrepancy but consider this: with no real salary cap, it would make it more probable than not for an MLB team to offer a large contract (I.e. Tyler Myers $6m aav) to a player with a below average WAR as there are no implications other than luxury tax penalties, verses an NHL team based on a hard cap. But they don’t. Significant contracts are only awarded to players who demonstrate above average WAR. What other rationale would explain why an NHL team would spend 7-8% of their payroll on a player that by the implied nature of the calculation is unworthy of even $2m? We could say GM ignorance, and maybe this would apply in Vancouvers case. But using the scenario which sparked this entire debate (Jake), if the WAR calculation and all the charts created by EW are to be assumed definitive, then his contract should be within 15% of Karlsson. Trouts contract (Whom I agree with @FreeJame is a unicorn) was only 14% more than Machado, and Mannys was 15% more than Harper. And that is the sequence in Descending order of WAR for positional players. If I’m to accept the proposition that the EW perception of skill is 100% valid then Gardiner needs to see a $9.5m AAV offer for at least 6 years. If not then I thinks it’s fair to debate how they arrive at these numbers. I Want to re-iterate how appreciative I am for the introduction to the various sites and metrics referenced by the community.

I saw this today on the EW site for projections. It has J.G. at 7 years/$6.8M. They also predicted Karlsson would be $9.7M for 8. The chart above is EW 2016-2019 GAR/WAR of 9 Defensemen that signed an RFA/UFA contract in 2018 or 2019. There are two current Sabres as well as two former Sabres. Based on this calculation Jake should be deserving of a $9m+ AAV. One of the reasons I'm skeptical of their WAR/GAR calculations is how incongruous the ratio of contracts/term are with MLB and their calculation of WAR. There is no scenario where a player with roughly half the WAR of Manny Machado would sign for 1/10th of his contract (He makes $30M AAV). Nate' Beaulieu's three year WAR compared to EK is the equivalent of an MLB player with a three year WAR of 7.1 signing for $3M. Pat Corbin signed for $23M AAV over 7 years. The next closest is AJ Pollak of the Dodgers signing a $13.75m AAV for 4 years. If we believe the EW ranking for Tyler Myers and Edler earning close to $6M (or half of Karlsson) with a WAR equal to a quarter or less of Karlsson's value. You just would never see this in MLB. There are zero free agents signing of players making $15m + AAV that do not possess an incredible 3 year WAR. To me this provides probable cause for questioning the absolute nature of the WAR/GAR or Expected Goal calculations.