triumph_communes

I'm more referring to the articles these Athletic writers keep churning out trying to do statistics with their journalism degrees from community colleges, completely missing the big picture from the weeds they have their magnifying glass set on to the point they're burning holes into it. "Find out whether analytics says your team got better or not" is a notification the Athletic just sent me. It's awful journalism.

People take fancy stats that only explain 11% of the variation between Ovechkin goal totals versus than Jimmy Vesey's totals waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far.

As much as he may have had an eye for talent, he had no idea how the whole human interaction thing works. His single word draft announcements really signal how inept he is to this. What destroyed his teams were his locker rooms (and coaches). The players he picked all went on elsewhere and contributed, or excelled, but while in Buffalo were ranging from criminal alcoholics to full on raging alcoholics, outcasts in their own locker rooms, completely aloof, more concerned about basketball events than their hockey games, and getting benched for being a few minutes late for a meeting as a top-down approach to solving these issues. A good scout doesn't necessarily make a good manager, and Murray was an extreme example of the fact that it takes more to build a team than just talent. And the absurd amount of 2nd round picks that were traded away for nothing, or turned into gems like Karabacek and Cornel, is why we have such abysmal depth today and why Botterill has taken years fixing the cap situation and reforming the roster from the outside-- since the cupboards at home were bare.

McCabe has probably lost years off his life with the concussions and hits he's given for this team, or more aptly, his teammates. Cannot thank a player enough for that. But he really is just a slightly more skilled Mike Weber. He doesn't have the smarts to move the puck properly, even if he has the body and the hands. He is always trying to catch-up with the play, not thinking ahead of it like talent's like Dahlin are. Also, I simply don't like his basal attitude. It's too lackadaisical, which again, I think points to him being a little slow to process things. Housley's system was over his head and he has struggled for two years. He can be a mid-pairing guy for a team running something simple, and a hard-hitting type of game. He does well on simple situations like PKs. He's not a fit for the mold it appears Botterill is cramming the team into though, and I expect him to be traded away more than I do Ristolainen.

Great off-season, and something’s going to give when Pilut and Bogosian come off IR

Some players are the same year after year. Others have career years, but not until after being traded to good teams. So so what’s to say Ristolainen wouldn’t have a career year after being traded to a good team like Schultz did? When you start making crap like that, maybe your stats need context...

Risto has openly complained about being stuck with partners like Scandella who he can't trust to pass the puck to. A lot of his problems really appear to stem from bad habits that were born out of him being extra-tired all the time. Now the team has a plethora of guys who Risto can 1) trust he can pass to and 2) likely have a better first-pass out of the zone than he does. I think the 'uncoachable' comments stem simply from him not listening to a coach because despite all these coaches, he's yet to have a D partner he can trust. He's been stuck with Scandella, McCabe, etc. Risto will be fine if he stays. His comments make it seem like he recognizes that Dahlin-Montour pairing is going to come steal many of his minutes, and he's saying he doesn't mind that.

We aren't. That ship sailed when we signed Johansson. If we sign a player like Gardiner then I bet we trade out Bogosian/Scandella/Hunwick/Nelson for scraps to some other team who has room though and wants the vet 3rd pairing.

Daily dosage of grains of salt: The curious story of Justin Schultz: RAPM charts still require CONTEXT-- the models don't explain it all

Only thing holding talents like Mittelstadt was conditioning and strength. Smart players that know they’re good don’t need the confidence boost playing in lesser leagues. Some guys who need more confidence boosting because their IQ/Hands aren’t there yet need to be in lesser leagues or they turn into a stone hands grinder like Girgensons who has forgotten how to play with the puck that isn’t a hot potato. Things holding Nylander back was confidence and drive.

He’s never played them. You can’t say that. Statistics have no data on him in that role—- they don’t describe how he would do there.

They didn’t have to sign Ceci though. They did

Laine and Hoffman are power play specialists who we don’t need. With all the new defenders we have, there’s a good chance we won’t even be able to keep whatever forward we acquire from a Risto trade in the expansion draft. Only getting a couple years out of the target is all you should expect.

Laine wants a short contract taking him right to UFA. This kills his value. You only add something desirable, but small like Rodrigues or picks going back. I think it’s be funny if it was Ristolainen+Thompson for Laine. Analytics people hate Laine more than they hate Thompson

Need to be clear: The correction factor ***attempts*** to account for teammate effects, but by no means can it completely do so. It also has no ability to distinguish chemistry with one player va no chemistry vs another. When players have very few linemates, the model will fail them to some degree.

I wouldn't call it a mess when there isn't a player who would have to pass through waivers that anyone would mind actually losing, or have value any higher than a 3rd rounder. That's just healthy competition, with no externalities forcing him to make a decision beyond what's shown on the ice.

Okposo+Thompson, similar drags The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it. The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams. When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt. When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.

The highest errors in the model come when percentages are above 60% for players with >700 minutes. And yes, quite literally, the author of these fancy stats states:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf Pages 34-37 A snippet: i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other. Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games. As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics. The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low. If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created. Read the links above.

Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise! Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots: People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

You mean, where he also played with Sobotka and Berglund, lol?

Girgensons never played with Sobotka. You aren't factoring in the Off_GF Off_xG Off_CF black hole that Sobotka had on everyone he blessed his minutes with. The guy refused to sustain a forecheck and gave up the offensive zone before his teammates would even lose possession. I get that stats can help tell a story, but they aren't some slam poetry with great applause. Thompson was put in bad situation after bad situation and I think some people should calm down on him. He tore up the AHL after being sent down the second time in Stl, and in Buffalo. Yes, he had his brain farts, but they don't completely describe him. He has a very active pokecheck and an elite shot, and deployed properly can be a serviceable player. Paired with Sobotka, he had none of that.

Risto+McCabe+Smith or Rodrigues+pick (~7.5AAV) for Ehlers+Lowry (8.9AAV) Jets need to shed some cap, especially long-term, which is why Ehlers goes cheap. I believe the Jets want to dump Kulikov, but I bet we are on his 6-team no trade list after the whole door incident. They would prefer to keep their youth over their guys under contract (Ehlers & Lowry). They also value McCabe highly because he is still RFA, and they have very few defenders currently under long-term control. I think they'd demand a cheap forward back if trading two forwards out.

Tage has also always played with anchor teammates. He only had a couple shifts on a line without a Sobotka, 4th line, etc, scenario.

Nylander will probably do better than he would have in Buffalo getting to play with Kane and Toews. Buffalo doesn’t have those kinds of players for him to play with though. Buffalo has a fragile locker room and doesn’t need yet another kid who struggles with motivation. Botterill obviously is obsessed with character and wants none of that.