GASabresIUFAN

Sounds like a bunch of excuses. For Z, going from 2.5 million to 850K isn't going to made up by the Florida tax savings. LOL. KA should have traded VO and Comrie before last season even if he had to eat huge pieces of their contracts. He should have never re-signed Jost, Z or KO and certainly not for the $ he paid them. That would have given him potential about 14 million $ invest in better players. I'm also really annoyed that he tried to make the same mistake again with Z and offered him a new deal. KA's pro evaluations have been awful so far, and the best thing you can say about most of the new guys is that won't cost to much cap wise, except Zucker, who potentially is Eric Johnson 2.0.

I didn’t know where to put this article, but this seemed to be the best to put it. https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/former-sabres-quickly-found-work-as-free-agents-this-summer/ Hoppe is talking about all the players KA moved on from and how they quickly found new jobs. The most interesting thing about the article is Girgensons turning down KA’s contract offer to stay for a 3 year 850K per season deal in TB. The other takeaway was how little our former players were worth on the market and how much we were overpaying. Skinner goes from 9 mill to 3. Olofsson falls from 4.75 to 1.075, Johnson slips from 3.25 to 1, Z drops from 2.5 to .850, Jost from 2 to .775, Comrie falls from 1.8 to .825, and Robinson drops from 1.6 to .950. Outside of Skinner and Robinson,who was acquired to help injury depth, the rest were unforced errors. This board was unanimous in trading VO and Comrie. We were also nearly unanimous in asking Adams to move on from Z and Jost. Johnson was a vet UFA and there were real questions about whether he had anything left. All told we paid 24.9 million for players now playing for 8.475. We can also add keeping KO on the unforced error list. Just think how much better last season might have been if he had allocated 15-16 mill to better players.

Who knows! UPL has one season of good pro hockey under his belt and now carries the burden of the big contract. Levi was very good in the AHL in 26 games and up and down in 23 NHL games, but still finished with a decent .899 save %. Reimer was decent for Det last season in a backup role with a 3.11 and a .904 in 25 games, but he played behind a slightly better defense than he'll most likely have in Buffalo. At 36 it's reasonable to ask how much NHL hockey he has left. The potential is there for UPL to repeat last season and for Levi to continue to improve and challenge him for the top job. If successful we might see an Ullmark/Swayman type tandem. The downside is UPL regresses, Levi proves not quite NHL ready and Reimer is playing much more than anyone anticipated or hoped. Even with UPL's good year last season, the Sabres goaltending as a whole, both at EV and on the PK, was league average. This kept a porous defense (791 HDCA - 6th worst in the NHL) from destroying the season. I don't really expect much improvement in the D play, thus UPL, Levi, and Reimer will have to be better than league average for this team to make the playoffs. Here is the good news. The UPL/Levi/Reimer triumvirate is better than the mess we had last year. UPL and Levi are more experienced and better goalies than they were a year ago and Reimer is a substantial upgrade on Comrie. On paper this is the best group we have had since KA arrived. To bad it took 3 years to get to this point.

I feel a little better about UPL after Philly paid Konecny 8.75 per year for 8 years.

What has he done? Great question. I also said hands the reigns to Levi in 2-3 years. Levi is a 2 time NCAA Richter award winner. He is the 1st to win it twice and the first to win it in consecutive years. Swayman, Primeau, Demko and Hellebuyck are other winners. In his first year in the minors he recorded a .927 save% (26 games). UPL’s best minor league season was his 3rd season and it was a .900 in his first season in the NHL (23 games last season as well) he recorded a .899 save% compared to UPL’s .892. Levi has the better developmental pedigree over UPL. That doesn’t mean he is better today, but he may be the better player by the end of this coming season. Levi’s pedigree is closer to Saros and Demko, while UPL’s is closer to Husso and Petersen. Which of our goalies would you have more faith in?

Now go look at what Husso and Petersen did prior to their breakout season. Husso was better than UPL in the minors and Petersen about the same. Demko and Saros were significantly better than UPL in the minors. This is why I’m very concerned about UPL. Of the 4 goalies you listed plus UPL, UPL’s development resume is arguably the worst. I’m hoping that I’m wrong about this deal. I’d be thrilled if UPL becomes Ryan Miller 2.0. I’d be even more thrilled if Levi and UPL give us a Ullmark/Swayman type of effective tandem. The truth is that the Sabres playoff chances probably hinge on their success in net this coming season. Still I have significant concerns about UPL’s ability to build on last season.

It’s Adams.

KA's modus operandi has been to sign his core players to long-term deals So far he has dished out big contracts to Samuelsson after 1 good year, Cozens after 1 good year, TNT after 1 good year, Power after 1 decent year, and now UPL after 1 good season. Have we received decent value on any of these contracts? Samuelsson has been hurt since he signed his deal as often as he's played. Cozens regressed in the 1st year of the new deal. TNT also regressed in year 1 of his new deal. Power basically repeated his prior season and now enters the 1st year of the new deal. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5014522/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-atlantic-division/ According to the Athletic our core players that KA extended had negative contract values. TNT's was -500K, Cozens -3.3 million, and Samuelsson -1.1 million. Power's and Dahlin's new deals kick in this year. Last season Power gave us 4.4 million in value. His new deal is for 8.35. Dahlin's value was 9.5 million and his new deal is for 11 million. Honestly, I have no idea how Power will every play up to the new contract. The Sabres just aren't getting their money's worth on these big extension, and UPL's deal will probably follow suit. The truth is KA should have bridged Power, Cozens and Samuelsson and he should have bridged UPL for 2-3 years and then handed the reigns to Levi.

I like Quinn, but he is not an elite playmaker. Maybe he can develop into one, but his stats don't justify that label, not his total assists or his primary assists. Yes, he Jr scouting reports say he has good passing skills, but the stats say his primary usage in the pros is that of a goal scorer. What I will say is that his develop curve is looking more and more like Tuch. In LV, Tuch was primarily used as a depth goal scorer. However, once he joined the Sabres, Granato elevated his role and gave him more opportunity to be a playmaker. Over the last 2 years, Tuch's assists and primary assists are second on the Sabres behind Mitts. Quinn may also eventually be better than Zegras, but he isn't right now. Zegras is only 6 months older, but has played 211 games in the NHL (107 more than Quinn). He has 155 pts in those games (.735 pt/gp) vs Quinn's 58 in 104 games (.555 pt/gp).

No he hasn't and Levi is the NHL backup heading into training camp. Here are UPL's pro save% 19/20 AHL .874 (10 games), He spent most of the season in the ECHL .912 (23 games) 20/21 AHL .888 (14 games) 21/22 AHL .900 (35 games) 22/23 NHL .892 (33 games) 23/24 NHL .910 (54 games) Outside of last season, UPL's record of accomplishment in pro hockey is mediocre at best. These are not the stats of a "top prospect." The best thing someone can say is that UPL has steadily improved. Compare to Ullmark. Linus' in 3 AHL seasons had save % of .902, .909, and .923. His save % in Buffalo .912 over 117 games. Those are top prospect numbers. We have no idea if this guy is a long-term franchise goalie.

This is a stupid contract for a goalie with only 1 good pro season (AHL & NHL) to his credit. 5 years makes no sense, especially if Levi is your long-term franchise goalie. This contract will not be easy to trade if (when?) UPL regresses.

But how much better would Quinn be (& Cozens for that matter) if he had a gifted playmaker feeding him pucks for his very accurate shot?

Necas, 25, 362 gp - .268 g/gp, .671 p/gp Zegras, 23, 211 gp - .261 g/gp, .73 p/gp Zegras has 2 60 pt seasons, while Necas only has one. Zegras has 2 years left on his current deal at 5.75 while Necas is an RFA and looking for a long-term deal over $7 mill per season. How is Zegras a step back and Necas a step forward?

The Hischier, 25, of today is not the Hischier of age 21. Zegras had two 60+ seasons under his belt by 21. Hischier didn’t hit 60 pts until 22. Getting Zegras now, you may be getting a player about to make the next jump in level of production.

Agreed. As I pointed out in the OP, Ana needs ready young vets across their lineup, especially on defense. Their cornerstone young players are McTavish and Carlsson up front and Mintyukov on defense with F Gauthier coming soon and D Owen Zellweger securing a full time NHL gig this fall. Troy Terry is their good youngish vet F at 25. I think they need to fill in between the 9 30+ players and the young kids with more guys in the 23 to 27 range.

Looks to me that his "speed" dip is a reflection of his broken ankle from last year. Those numbers look very similar to one Zack Benson. Who according to the chart posted in the speed thread had a max speed of 21.47 and only 22 bursts of 20+. Is Lindy going to toss him to the curb? Quinn is only 21.86 with 29 20+. Zegras is a high IQ player that feeds his linemates. Isn't that what we need? Lindy has had success with similar players. Hischier comes to mind.

The time for patience has passed. I do agree that odds are KA isn't trading Benson for any reason, especially not just 2 years of Zegras. I also don't think he'd move Byram, the asset he got for Mitts, plus other assets to acquire a Mitts replacement. To make the money work, I think the deal starts with Greenway (or Jokiharju), plus Rosen and a 1st (or Kulich and a 2nd). Would Krebs be another piece? Kulich or Rosen probably make the Ducks out of camp giving them two roster players from the deal.

I would never say something like that. 😉

Let’s say for arguments sake that Ana is actually interested in trading their top pick from a couple of years ago after a difficult injury affected season. Buffalo’s need for a player like Zegras is obvious. The Sabres need a top 6 forward and need a playmaker of his skill to replace the lost playmaking from trading Mitts. The biggest hurdle to a deal is Ana is only 1.28 million above the cap floor. Moving Zegras (and I assume his full salary of $5.75 million) without taking a contract or two back, would put Ana about $4.5 million under the cap. Ana is also a surprisingly old team. They have 5 forwards 30+, their top goalie is 31 and their top 3 D are also 32+. The Sabres also have 13 forwards under contract once Krebs is signed. If Ana trades Zegras, they are going to want at least one or two roster players, preferably someone who can become part of their core. My guess is Benson is at the top of their list. I also think they are going to want 4 pieces in total. If we use the Eichel deal as a reference, the Sabres gave up Eichel and a 2023 3rd for Tuch (a good, but injured vet with term), Krebs (a young highly touted near ready prospect), a 2022 1st and a 2023 2nd. Honestly, I’m having a problem making the pieces work. Greenway is likely to be one of pieces heading the other way. Krebs? Rosen? Kulich? Our first in 2025? Thoughts?

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/after-trade-to-move-up-sabres-possess-mature-prospect-in-brodie-ziemer/ Good read. This kid will be a Sabres someday and a good one.

They probably did, but it takes two to tango.

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres/latest-news/sabres-have-serious-interest-in-ducks-star This is the only "credible" place I've seen it, but there may be others. This is from late June.

A follow-up note on differential. Of the teams since 2005, 61% of the teams with a positive differential of +1 to +10 made the playoffs (30 of 49), and 83% of the teams with a positive differential of +11 to +20 made the playoffs (50/60). If the Sabres have at least +20 differential in 24/25 they will make the playoffs.

Actually he is the complete opposite of what they have in droves. He is a pass first playmaker. We have no one like him on the team. Tuch is the closest, but he is a more balanced mix of shooting and passing. JJP, TNT, Cozens, and Quinn are all shoot first players. Benson is an unknown, but seems to be more in the Tuch mold, just smaller and slower. As to Beck, it’s a fair deal given his one year in the NHL. If he can repeat with 20+ points, while hitting and playing PK, the deal will look good from a cap $ standpoint.

Here is a good stat Sabres fans. Only one team since the NHL returned from the lock-out in 2005 has missed the playoffs with a +20 differential (strike and Covid seasons exempted). That was the Avs in 06/07 with a +21 and they missed the playoffs by 1 pt (they still had 95 pts). Only 5 other teams missed the playoffs with a +15 or better differential. The Sabres of last season are tied with Minn of 05/06 with the lowest point total (84) for a team with a +differential. The Sabres also managed to miss the playoffs with a +13 in 07/08 and + 16 in 08/09.