GASabresIUFAN

The kinda year a team needs a deep scouting department and a good analytical staff. Oops. Good things we are going to trade 3 of our best players to get tons of ammo in this crapshoot.

No. He was a better all-around player when we acquired him but not significantly. Sam is a better goal scorer and is an improving all-around player. The point of bringing up ROR is what we paid for a player who is similar to Samson offensively (although Sam is a much better goal scorer) and who was on the last year of his deal before being an UFA. I agree that ROR was worth more at the time but the value isn't light years more as you imply because of Sam's better hands. We paid for ROR and McGinn Zadorov (16th overall in 2013), Compher (35th overall in 2013), Grigorenko (12th overall in 2012) and the 31st 2015. Essentially 2 middle 1sts and 2 high seconds for ROR and McGinn. I think that at least puts Samson's value at a 1st, 2 2nds and a veteran contract. Jack's value? Before his injury, one would have to argue for at least 3 1sts and a player. What about now? If we trade him as is, I honestly see a value similar to what I just listed for a healthy and improving Samson.

Thank you. See the stats below.

"he's not ROR today" "He's no where near ROR when we acquired him" etc.. Frankly I don't give two craps what he is today. I care for comparison purposes what he was when TM gave up the farm to get him and how he compares at a similar age. Did anyone look up the stats? I did and they are very similar. When acquired by Buffalo, ROR had played 427 games for the Avs with 90 goals and 156a for 246 pts (.21g/gp & .576 pt/gp) for about 47 pts a season. His last 3 years in Colo he played 191gms with 51g 88a for 139 pts (.267 g/gp & .727 pts/gp) for nearly 60 points for a full season. Remember folks ROR didn't break out until he went to Stl during his 27 year old campaign when he had 77 pts in 82 games His 3 years in Buffalo were 224 gms 65g 111a for 176 pts (.29 g/gp & .79 pts/gp) for about 64 pts over a full season. Samson's career in Buffalo so far 454 gms 134g 161a for 295 pts (.295 g/gp & .65 pts/gp) for about 53 pts over a full season His last 3 years 205g 69g 86a 155 pts (.337 g/gp & .756 pts/gp) or about 62 pts over a full season. Over his career he has averaged about 18 per night PT and around 20 over the last 2 years. ROR averaged 18:26 in Colorado and 21 in Buffalo. You can argue ROR is a better all-around player and I'd agree, but the offensive stats are very similar and Samson is still only 25. Now that Samson has moved back to center (where he belongs) I think the comparison is even strong. Truthfully Samson is a much better goal scorer and more accurate shooter. ROR is better defensively and obviously in the FO circle, but Sam make great strides there this past season.

I think the structure of a deal for both players is similar. There will be 3 assets in each deal, one pick, one young player (or near ready prospect) and one cap casualty. Let’s hope that the cap casualty has some life in him such as a goalie or stay at home D. There is a chance we could get a quality player back in his prime like a Tkachuk or Gadreau, but I think more hockey type deals are unlikely. I also think most here are over valuing Jack because of his injury. Cars with significant accident history don’t sell as well and must be discounted. I also think there is a strong comparison between Sam and ROR at the time we acquired him. Sam’s move to center helps that comparison. Their PT production is similar, both centers and both would be UFAs in a year. ROR was worth more because of his established experience as a 2 way center, but he also had a reputation of being difficult to work with. I fully intended to imply we may need to keep and play Jack next season to maximize his value. I even wrote this up thread.

OA?

I think you're going to be sadly underwhelmed by the return for Jack if he is traded.

He was one player that seemed to grow every season and then fell apart. Enjoyed watching him play and am sad he is gone.

Obviously Jack has more value if healthy, but he isn't. Because of the neck injury and the potentially risky surgery he wants to correct the problem there may a very limited, if any, market for him right now. This may be a case where he has to have the surgery and comeback healthy for the Sabres to get a good trade back. Therefore right now I'd say Sam has more current trade value then Jack. The injury is to much of a wild and a GM who acquires him without proof he can play is asking to lose his job. Could there be a GM stupid enough to take the risk? Sure. We had a GM (TM) who loved to acquire injured players at max value, but my guess is idiots of that magnitude are fewer today then a decade ago.

Pros: Jack Viewed as an elite talent with potential to put up 90 pts If healthy 5 years left on a “reasonable” deal for a No 1. center. PT a game player. Excellent speed with good ice vision Cons: Not an elite shooter. (Career 10%). Suspect leadership. Coming off worst season. NMC kicks in in a year. Injured neck is a major concern. Sabres are stuck between his neck injury and his NMC if they really want to move him possibly creating a buyers market. Reinhart: Pros Consistent top line producer with possibly more upside. Coming off best season, where he showed considerable on ice leadership One more year of team control (Rfa) Can play RW or Center. Can likely be signed long term in the 7 mill area. Consistenly good shooter and has high hockey IQ Healthy No restrictions as to where we can trade him now or at the deadline. Cons Adequate skater Will need to signed to a long term deal or can walk in a year. May only want to be out West long term. I realized when doing this list that if I were a GM acquiring one of these guys I go after Reinhart. Jack’s injury is a risk I don’t want to take. While a healthy Jack would have significantly more trade value, I’d say the opposite is the case right now.

We can start with Robert, Martin and Horton. Sabres Dead pool? Anyone remember Reed Larson playing for the Sabres?

I wonder how many guys from that first team are still with us.

I actually remember him. He played our first season and was a key offensive player for the expansion team. I think he retired after the season.

I’ll go with Don Marshall

The more draft analysis I read I’m wondering if he is not the BPA for us. Im still against Power at No.1 but the difference between Beniers and Eklund is minuscule. To me it comes down to a debate between Eklund’d O skills and Beniers as a two way center. I’m still leaning toward Beniers but it’s very close.

Using Dobber's NHLe calculator here is some food for thought ROR draft year OHL 66 pts in 68 games - NHLe 26 - Best season in 2018-19 with 28g 49a for 77 pts and has .71 pts per game played in his career Bergeron draft year in the Q 73 pts in 70 games - NHLe 24 - Best NHL season 2018-19 with 32 g and 47 assists for 79 pts and has .80 pts per game played for his career. Beniers draft year in the Big 10 24 pts in 24 games - NHLe 27. Both ROR and Bergeron jumped immediately to the NHL in their first season after being drafted. Bergeron had 39 pts in 71 games and ROR had 26 in 81 games. Both fully blossomed in their 3rd pro seasons with ROR scoring 55 pts in 81 games and Bergeron with 73 pts in 81 games.

55 Points for Beniers is just speculation. I think his upside is ROR or Bergeron which I have been saying for weeks. A projection of 55 points is what ROR was when we acquired him.

Thx

So ROR. I'd take that in a minute. I think Eklund might end up being the most dynamic scorer in this draft. I'd take him over both Powers and Johnson.

I checked earlier today, but their list still says May. Please send a link if you can.

and now you know why I said draft Beniers No. 1. We need centers and we need high end centers.

Latest update. Updated McKeens and added Wheeler from the Athletic. Now have 15 rankings to work with. Waiting on McKenzie, FC Hockey, Morreale (NHL.com) and Draft prospects to update their April rankings and Dobber to update from March. I've run the spreadsheet using the April through June rankings and these are the results. 14 unanimous skaters plus Wallstadt the goalie (ISS doesn't rank goalies with skaters). Tiers 1-6 all unanimous selections Tier 1 - Power Tier 2 - Berniers , Eklund, Clarke, Hughes, and Guenther Tier 3 - Edvinsson, Johnson and Wallstadt Gap Tier 4 - McTavish, Lucius Gap Tier 5 - Lysell and Sillinger Gap Tier 6 - Lambos, and Raty (13-14 ballots) Tier 7 - Svechkov, Coronato, Chibrikov, Olausson and Robertsson (11-12 ballots) Tier 8 - Ceulemans, Bolduc, Cossa, Bourgault and Othmann Tier 9 - Pinelli, Rosen, and L'Heureux (9-10 ballots) Tier 10 - Stankoven and Toumaala Tier 11 - Chayka, Samoskevich, Dean Others - Pastujov (7 ballots), Svozil (4), Behrens (4) and Martino (4)

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/former-phillies-outfielder-dylan-cozens-leaving-baseball-to-pursue-nfl-career/

PS for those that don't think Weissbach is a legit prospect here is some food for thought Weissbach's 22 year old season 41 pts in 31 Big 10 games - NHLe 36 pts. 5'9" 176 lbs Routsalainen's 22 year old season 43 pts in 44 SM-Liiga games - NHLe 36 pts. 5'8" 180 lbs Olofsson's 22 year old season he had 43 pts in 50 SHL games - NHLe 42 pts. 5'11" 182 lbs

Current Sabres prospect pipeline. My prospect definition is 24 and under, waiver exempt and played in the minors (or lower tiers) of hockey part of last season or are no longer in the NHL. By that definition, Cozens, Tage, Borgen, Asplund and Mitts all graduated, while R2, Samuelsson, and Bryson all remain prospects. So given the roster upheaval from last season who are our top prospects prior to this year's draft. Forwards: Quinn, JJP, R2, Huglen, Murray, Weissbach, Rousek and Pekar. IMHO, the first 3 have significant NHL futures, while there is significant question marks about the rest. I'll be interested to see how Weissbach does in his first pro season and whether Huglen builds on his game now that he is finally healthy. Defense: Bryson, Samuelsson, Laaksonen, Johnson, Kukkonen and Fitzgerald. Obviously the first 4 are future Sabres. I think the upside for all 4 is 2nd pairing guys with Johnson possibly being a 1st pairing shutdown player. Bryson and Samuelsson looked they belong in the NHL sooner then later. I think Bryson is a fulltime Sabres next year. I also think we shouldn't sleep on Kukkonen. He was the 2nd youngest fulltime player on his Liiga team and is a solid defensive D. Goaltending: UPL and Portillo. Rank: 1 - Quinn - We needed scoring wingers and he can play that role and is already a 200 ft player. 2 - Routsalainen - I was impressed with his 1st NA season. Looks like a better all around version of VO 3 - JJP - Arguably might actually be the best prospect we have, but need to see him here first. 4 - UPL - following the Ullmark development path (including the injuries) but with more upside 5 - Johnson - see above 6 - Samuelsson - see above 7 - Laaksonen - see above, and was AHL all-star in first NA season 8. - Bryson - proved he is an NHLer last season, just not sure given his size of the upside. Will the offense come? 9. - Portillo - Michigan starter next season, but was excellent in a backup role last season GAP 10 - Weissbach - 41 pts in 31 NCAA games last season. Lets see how he adjusts to the pro game 11 - Huglen -35 pts in 39 USHL game and 8 pts in 9 playoff games after returning from a 1.5 years off do to injury. This kid has a ton of upside but we'll see if he can achieve it. 12 - Kukkonen - see above 13 - Rousek - bringing his decent hands and physical game to the AHL next season 14 - Murray - Strange trip to becoming a legit prospect, but made NHL debut this year. Projects as a depth player with occasional scoring, but has size and is willing to use it GAP 15 - Biro - college FA was ok in his first AHL season. Needs to find his NCAA scoring touch. 16 - Pekar - disappointing first pro season. Thought he would transition easier. 17 - Costantini - had a solid 1st USHL season with 22 pts in 37 games. 18 - Fitzgerald - Unlikely to make the jump to the NHL. 19 - Worge-Kreu - graduated to the SHL at 21 and has size, but it's likely be a few more years to see if he has a NHL future. I doubt it 20 - Cronholm - see Kreu but without the size.