GASabresIUFAN

Who is Krebs going to beat out for a starting job? At center he isn’t beating out McLeod or Lafferty who were two of KA’s key acquisitions this summer. At wing he isn’t beating Greenway and Zucker on the 3rd line two other big key KA acquisition. That leaves Krebs to battle it out with two other new acquisitions in Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel. Krebs is solid defensively, but was one of worst offensive forwards in the NHL last season. He also isn’t as fast or physical as Aube-Kubel or Malenstyn. I give his chances of beating either of them out in camp at about zero!

Here are the 8 guys who played mostly 3rd and 4th line minutes for the Sabres last season - Krebs, Girgensons, Greenway, Jost, Olofsson, Robinson, Okposo & Benson. They scored 55 goals last season. These are the expected 7 guys who will populate the 3rd and 4th lines for the Sabres this coming season - Krebs, Greenway, Zucker, McLeod, Aube-Kubel, Malenstyn and Lafferty - They scored 57 goals last season. Not exactly a huge increase in offense.

All drafts don’t have the same talent level or depth of talent. Helenius and Rosen were both drafted 14th but Helenius is the more talented player. Helenius’ upside is that of a 2nd line center. He is the guy who will push Cozens to the wing where he belongs. Many scouts have said Helenius maybe NHL ready now. Kulich and Rosen are also close to NHL but neither has Helenius’ upside although Kulich is close, but two years older Östlund, IMHO has 2/3 line potential, is discounted to Helenius because he’s older but wasn’t as affective in his Euro senior league as Helenius last season. He was .6 pts per game in the SHL while Helenius, at only 18, was .7 pts per game in the Liiga and dominated in the playoffs. A near Barkov level performance.

While I agree it’s possible to get 270 out if the current roster, it’s not likely. We need another top 6 forward. If the goal is to play fast, you bring in a top 6 forward to replace Skinner’s lost offense, push Benson to the 3rd line and trade Greenway (our slowest player).

I am also worried that some may slip, but considering how low in production that new bottom six was last year, i’m not looking for to much regression there or from JJP after his breakout year.. I also believe most of top guys lost production partially from the stagnant PP. Any uptick in the PP should help list most of the boats in the top 6 forwards. I have looked at how we get to 265-270 a few times this offseason. I wrote this yesterday in the big picture thread. I also posted a similar analysis to yours in another @dudacek thread earlier this offseason. Ultimately, the road map to 265-270 is going fall on rebounds from Tage and Cozens, a healthy and productive Quinn and continued improvement from Benson. The key to a Tage rebound is the PP. His PP goals feel from 20 to 9 last season. As to the rest of the roster, I think we could see increase from Byram (who needs to play a full season) and Tuch, but also decreases from Zucker and McLeod who won’t be playing with Draistal this season. I’m not expecting anymore than 60 to 65 goals from our bottom 7 forwards.

What site did you use? Hockey-reference has Lafferty at 10.3%, Tuch at 11.4, Zucker at 12.2 etc..

Byram. 0.116. 75. 8.70 @LGR4GM These numbers seem low. Hockey-reference has his career shooting % at 11.9% He has also taken 219 shots on net for his career in 164 games. That’s about 110 shots per season. That actually projects to 13 goals next season. Considering he has 10 in 42 games 2 years ago and 11 in 53 games last season. We should expect a higher total than you projected over a full season.

There is allegedly a photo from his recent wedding where he is lifting his wife. If true, I can see why the Flyers may feel that the injury can’t be that bad if he can lift his wife off the ground.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/40929830/flyers-waive-ryan-johansen-claim-breach-contract https://www.tricitynews.com/local-news/this-port-moody-nhler-just-got-married-now-he-could-be-out-of-a-job-9374802 Johansen and his agent claim he has a major hip injury that requires surgery. He has been out with that injury since acquired by the Flyers last season.

Here is an optimistic post about the possible upside for the offense. I wrote in my earlier post that the Sabres would need to score about 265-270 goals to reasonably expect to make the playoffs. When we scored 300+ a few years ago we had a poor defense and terrible goaltending. The defense is marginally better, but the goaltending should be a strength, so I’m going to assume we keep our GA to 250 or less. The projected 21 skater lineup scored 227 goals last season. The forwards scored 180 and our defenders chipped in another 47. So where should we look for another 40 goals? 1) Quinn - Quinn scored 9 goals in 27 games last season - If he stays healthy I think 27 goals is a fair but possibly low estimate (+18) 2) Benson - Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, his production should jump in year 2 from 11g 19a to reasonably 18g 25a. (+7). To show what’s possible, JJP went from 12g 20a in year 1 to 28g 22a in year 2. I don’t think Benson is a JJP level goal scorer, but he is probably a much better playmaker. 3) TNT - Tage has averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, last year he scored 29, but came on after being hurt early. I don’t expect him to shoot 15%+ like he did in 21/22 or 22/23, but a rebound to closer to that number seems reasonable, thus about 35 goals as a projection. (+6) 4) Cozens - He isn’t as good as his career year (31 goals), but he isn’t as bad as last season (18 goals) split the difference for 25 goals (+7) That’s 38 additional goals from 4 players. Any improvement from Tuch or JJP would add to that projection. I don’t expect much if any increase in production from the 3rd (34 goals - Zucker, McLeod, Greenway) or 4th (29 goals - Kubel, Krebs, Lafferty, Malenstyn) lines or really from the defense. I can see Dahlin slipping a little from 20, but possible increases from Power (6) and Byram (11) to offset any decrease from Dahlin. The rest of the defense is a goal scoring void. The biggest issue is health. Keeping the majority of our top 6 forward and top 3 D healthy this season will go along way toward getting to the playoffs. The drop off in talent from our top 6 forwards and top 3 defenders is huge.

No. They don’t have the talent to play with our top players. Especially when you consider that better players, Quinn and JJP, only scored 30+ points total as rookies.

My feelings about Adams are the same as always; he never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. For the 3rd offseason in a row he had an opportunity to make a couple significant upgrades to his roster to get the team over the hump. Instead he continue to play on the margins. When we needed legit goaltending he failed to keep Ullmark, failed to acquire a legit starter but instead gave us fringe players like Anderson, Subban, Tokarski, and Comrie. We have needed partners for Dahlin and Power for years as well as defensively strong D. Instead he gave us Lyubushkin, Johnson, Clague, Gilbert, Stillman and Clifton. None of which were suitable partners for our top guys and none were better than 3rd pairing players and most were just roster filler. This offseason is more of the same. He has still failed to acquire any good defensive D who can play in our top 4. Instead he acquired a 3rd high skill offensive D, whose early returns show him as an ill fit with Dahlin or Power and suspect defensively. He also downgraded the skill level of the forward group. He shipped out Skinner and Mitts sending away 40-50 goals and 100-120 points. They were replaced with McLeod and Zucker who scored about 25 goals and 60 points last season. His arguably positive change was to remake the 4th line to a faster more physical group, unfortunately with only a marginal upgrade in scoring. This offseason so far, IMHO, will be remembered, unless the team makes the playoffs, for KAs continued inability to attract good talent to Buffalo. The same excuses for failure echoed all offseason. The price was too high, the player wouldn’t wave his NTC, the player wouldn’t sign an extension etc…. All that said there is a chance this team can make the playoffs. Despite being in the bottom 5 again HDCA, UPL’s good season helped the Sabres give up around 240 goals against. If he and his backup (Levi or Reimer) can repeat that performance then the team has a chance. However, they will need to stay healthy, and get rebounds in performance from Tuch, Tage and Cozens plus further development from Benson, JJP and Quinn. They also need to get the PP going. Ultimately they will need to score 265-270 goals. Not impossible, but everything will have to go right.

But it’s clearly not Adams calling Avs and asking what they want for Byram.

This seems to imply that the Avs knew Mitts was on the market and inquired at what it would cost to acquire him.

This is not how it happened. It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman. It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D. Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first). KA would have been happy with a center as well. After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

Byram - Pts/Game played 21/22 .57 22/23 .48 23/24 .40 Quinn - pts/game player 22/23 .31 23/24 .70 - This is what has people so excited. The team's biggest need was a top 4 D who played good defense and had a complimentary skill set at Dahlin and Power. This is not Byram. I'm also a little bearish on Bryam as his defense and production have decreased each season in the NHL. He is still young enough to rebound, but the trend is not going to in the right direction.

Give up Thorny. He doesn't understand. He's ok with the status quo. We have been on the giving end of the "big trade" so many times in recent years that we have forgotten what one really looks like coming the other way. Trading away ROR, Eichel, Kane and Reinhart are examples of what we have been clamoring for KA to finally do in reverse. Go get an establish good to excellent veteran in his prime for picks and prospects. Other GM gets these deals done all the time, why can't Adams? Mitts for Byram isn't the "big trade" because the "big trade" is supposed to improve your NHL roster without depleting other areas of your NHL roster. Trading your best playmaker for a 3rd offensive defenseman doesn't qualify as the big trade because it depleted the forward group with no adequate replacement on the roster or in the system. It also didn't fill an area of need on the defense since this new offensive D isn't good defensively and the Sabres have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL for the last few years.

How do you judge a coaching change until you see how the team plays under the new coach?

Yerdon wasn’t saying that at all. What he was saying is that KA should have done more to upgrade the forwards, which is exactly what so many of us have been saying. We have cap space and the prospects; use them to get a top 6 forward. He never said anything about trading Power, or Cozens or an other core piece. Dumping Skinner and Mitts may have saved money, but it also sent 40+ goals and 100+ points out of town. The “replacements,” Zucker and McLeod, had 62 points between them last season.

The make over of the 4th line, like most things KA does, was a year too late. Lafferty is the biggest upgrade here. Aube-Kubel has never been a full time NHLer and Malenstyn is a gamble with only 1 year of NHL experience at 26. More speed and more physicality is a good thing. Not sure they bring anything more offensively than last year’s mess. The 3rd line is a complete unknown at this point. McLeod is a downgrade from Mitts, but an upgrade over Krebs. Zucker is a downgrade from Skinner offensively, but an upgrade from Olofsson. Greenway is still Greenway and remains limited offensively. I’m also not sure the 3rd line will actually give us many more goals than the 4th line. The other bottom 6 question is where does Krebs fit into the bottom 6?

I'm still waiting for "the big trade" Trading assets for a 4th line player (Malenstyn) and a 3rd line center aren't big trades. Also trading a player you weren't inclined to re-sign for a player with one year left on his contract, that you probably can't afford to re-sign long-term and who plays a position in a similar style to 2 other players who have already committed to with huge long-term contracts smacks of desperation rather than roster improvement. McLeod as a 3rd line center is not an unreasonable acquisition and the cost is whatever. Savoie was one prospect is a sea of quality forward prospects and is unlikely to be missed. However, downgrading for Mitts to McLeod is a significant downgrade for the roster. McLeod may skate faster than Mitts, but he isn't a better passer, goal scorer, or as physical a player. Their two-way play maybe about the same and both can play center or wing. If we get 35 points out of McLeod we'll be lucky as we watch Mitts put up 75 points or more as the 2nd line center for the contending Avs. He also is an RFA after this coming season As to Byram, I'm just not a fan of his acquisition. I fully understand that KA was trying to get the best asset he could for a quality player (Mitts), who, for reasons only know to KA and TP, he didn't even offer a new contract too. Byram doesn't bring a skill set we don't already have with Dahlin, Power and even Clifton. He isn't great defensively and to make matters worse, he only has one year left on his contract and we already need to re-sign Quinn, JJP, McLeod, and Levi. The theory is he'd be a good partner for Dahlin or maybe Power. In 138 minutes with Dahlin last year (our 9th most common pairing) they had an XGF of 46% and an actual GF of 47%. Power with Byram was even worse with an xGF of 37% in over 60 minutes. Color me un-impressed. Again KA is banking on a rebound from core players and improvement from kids like JPP, Quinn and Benson to make his team better. As Joe Yerdon said on Biron/Dunleavy's podcast, KA's moves look the moves of a GM trying to make marginal improved on an established playoff team and not the moves of a GM trying to turn a moribund franchise around.

The 30 somethings may lobby for inclusion because this will be “their last chance” to represent in the Olympics. However, if you are Canada are you really including 36 year old Stamkos, 38 year old Marchand and 39 year old Crosby? Is Sweden really going to field a team with 3 35 year old D in Hedman, Ekholm and Karlsson? Obviously it will depend on the continued quality of their play, but it’s a lot to ask these older players to still be at the top of their games 2 years from now.

They only had 11 D play in the NHL last year. Heiskanen is the star, but after that Joki is in a group with Esa Lindell, Olli Maatta, Mikkola, and Valimaki. Would Risto still be a consideration? By comparison, Sweden had 35 D appear in the NHL last season. It is an aging group with Hedman (33), Karlsson (33), Ekholm (33), Ekman-Larsson, Adam Larsson, Brodin and Erik Gustafsson all currently 30 to 33 years old. Dahlin maybe the only current lock for the Swedes on defense given the age of the other top Swedish D.

Great question and I think the answer is KA was looking for a guy with just a couple of years on his deal. Zegras has 2 years left on his deal for example. Ultimately I think there is enough cap space for a player to get a guy on a short-term upgrade, but not enough to commit to another long-term deal, especially if the Sabres are again on the outside looking in on the playoffs. The hope is that the upgrade is a bridge until Benson, Helenius, Östlund, Wahlberg, or Kulich is ready for a bigger role.

Byram or Adams? By the way, I don’t question Byram O skills, or his ability to be aggressive. We saw those two things early after the trade. What I do question is his commitment and ability to actually play defense.