Curt

Benson is a better player than Savoie. Benson is a year and a half younger, they literally played on the same team, on the same line and Benson had a better season. Benson has been considered one of the elite talents of this draft for years. He was granted exceptional status and allowed to enter the WHL early because he was so good. He only falling down Draft boards because of his size. Getting Benson at #13 would be a bigger deal than getting Savoie at #9 last season.

Oh man, if Benson falls to 13 (wouldn’t be shocked) and Buffalo passes, I’ll be so bummed. Don’t over think it! He is really really good! And 5’10” 170 isn’t even THAT small. I get that you can only have so many smaller forwards in the lineup, but trade a couple of the other guys if you need to. He definitely isn’t soft. He is just a little bit little.

This definitely happens. I feel like it is useful to look for players with traits that suit the playoff game, but size can definitely be over prioritized.

This might not be too interesting to anyone other than me but I’m just throwing it out there. As I’ve looked at draft prospects the past couple weeks, I’ve tried to focus on a couple things in particular. 1) Guys who have characteristics that I think would show out well in a playoff series, and 2) guys who are young for their draft class. So I present to you a list of guys who are both pretty young for the draft class and have some combination of strength, attitude, style, and motor that would allow them to do well in the playoffs. There are not that many, but I hope that the Sabres draft a couple of these guys. Centers: Dalibor Dvorsky - likely top 10 pick Anton Wahlberg - early 2nd round Rasmus Kumpulainen - late 2nd/early 3rd round Wingers: Quinton Musty - late 1st round Kasper Halttunen - early 2nd round Danny Nelson - early 2nd round Easton Cowan - mid 2nd round Jesse Kiiskinen - mid 2nd round Juraj Pekarcik - early 3rd round Felix Unger Sörum - mid/late 3rd round Alexander Rykov - 3rd to 4th round Matthew Soto - 5th to 7th round Denis Malov - 6th or 7th round Alexander Assadourian - 6th or 7th round LH Defensemen: Jakub Dvorak - early 2nd round Caden Price - early 3rd round Kristian Kostadinski - 4th to 6th round James Petrovski - 4th to 6th round RH Defensemen: Gavin McCarthy - mid/late 3rd round Carter Sotheran - 4th to 5th round

I want Moore too. And I really like Ritchie and Barlow.

By high I just meant early-mid 1st round. Nothing comes easily really. You want shutdown, defense 1st D. I think you can more easily find those guys in the 2nd round than you can find a top-6 forward. I think you can go after guys like Price, Dvorak, Bonk, Strbak, Allen, McCarthy, Sotheran, Gibson in the 2nd/3rd and find a guy who can be that complimentary top-4 defenseman to Dahlin/Power. There is no right or wrong answer exactly. I’m just explaining my point of view.

This would be ok, but I get nervous about taking defense 1st D so high. I just feel like you can find those guys later in the draft. Don't get me wrong, either of those guys could develop more offensive ability, but that’s the the question with them. Simishev more so than Wallinder. I feel like there will probably be better, higher upside forwards available at 13.

I know they have sometimes reached slightly but just can’t imagine them taking a guy ranked in the 40-60 range at #13. I just can’t. They better not. 2nd round pick, fine. Not exactly what I would do, but I kind of trust their judgment, so ok.

Housley did a good job when coaching a top 4 of Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, and Shea Weber/PK Subban. Based upon what he then did in Buffalo I’m a little skeptical that he had a great deal of influence in making that defensive unit good. I think maybe the players were just really good.

You don’t have to give it to the ambulance company.

I forgot that the offseason was over already.

Maybe they move around a little too. Either trading back, or packaging a couple picks for a later 2nd/very early 3rd, maybe they get a late 2nd/early 3rd for Olofsson.

When would you be comfortable taking him? In the 3rd?

Been trying to listen to a lot of draft stuff recently. Seems like Simishev and Willander are really moving up draft boards. Those two along with Reinbacher all probably go in the top 15. Seems like Sandin-Pellikka is dropping a bit because he is viewed as a smallish D with limited upside on defense, and while it looks like he will be a good NHL PP QB, that offensive ability from a defenseman isn’t as rare as it was in the past, and he lacks the truly dynamic offensive ability of the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL. Looks like he will fall outside of the top 15. How would people feel about Simishev or Willander at 13? I feel like they would both be good additions and probably future top-4 defenders but it just feels a little lack luster and I think there will probably be higher upside forwards on the board.

Olofsson will be traded to open up a spot.

According to capfriendly, Rousek’s AHL salary on this deal is $70,000.

Good catch. What the heck is Chad tweeting this out for? 20 seconds per game? 28 mins total for the season? It’s a pointlessly small sample size. To be fair, all small samples, but Mitts had had good PK numbers for 3 seasons running. Would they hold up if he was actually a consistent part of the PK unit? I have no idea.

This could be kind of bad, but I remember how upset a lot of people were when Chris Taylor was replaced by Appert. Things haven’t been so bad since. I think it will be ok.

I too like the part that compares the expected results of his picks the the real picks. Huh, the model that you used to make the picks projects the results of your picks to be great? You don’t say!

Hmm, I think he is close to if not already a #2 level NHL defenseman.

It goes back to the idea that you should pay players for what you expect them to do over the life of the contract, not for what they have done in the past. Based on his talent, character, and the projected cap increases, I would be absolutely shocked if Power is not worth more than $8.5M per year over most of the next 9 years. My view is that you pay him for what you expect him to be. Give him the 8 year contract at $8.5M and if he turn out to be worth ONLY $6M over the contract, then we can deal with the price. At least that way you have the chance of ending up with a bargain contract, plus it shows one of your most import players that you believe in them and want them to be part of the organization long term. It’s just the philosophy that I personally prefer.

I don’t know, I think Power will always lag a little behind Dahlin in terms of offensive production, but I think Power has a higher defensive potential. With his skating (better than Dahlin’s?) and length, I think he could be a dominant defensive force. Especially in a few years after he fills out and starts to use his strength a little more. A number like 8 x $8.5M is very comparable to what other highly drafted defensemen with similar production have gotten on a long term 2nd contract. If you are not sure Power will be good enough to deserve a $8.5M+ contract in a few years, that’s a valid reason to opt for a bridge. I just think that 4 years from now, after he is playing very well and the cap has made a big jump, Power would be resigning for $10M or more.

But 8 year at $8.5 is not the same as 3 x $5.5 + 5 x $10.5 because what really matters is the cap hit in years when Sabres will be tight to the cap max. If in those 3 years Power develops into an excellent defenseman and the cap increases by $12M, then you probably are looking at $11+ for Power on a long term deal. That $2-3M extra for Power in those years 4-8 could make a significant difference.

If Power signs a 3 year bridge, I think that 5-5.5 is just about right. If he signs an 8 year deal, I think you are looking at $8M+. Don’t think anyone is advocating that it would take $8M per to sign him to a 3 year bridge.

Do you care about whether he is bad at defense?