Thorny

Exciting to be this excited.

Agree. Has the discussion not shifted now to how we go from good to great? If not, my mistake. I thought we were there, though. I think we are good. My post specifically said “after our first playoff series”. That’s kinda my point: 12 / 32 is great (I mean this) relative to wanting to be a playoff team (which is all I really want right now, yes), but 12/16 isn’t very good when we start measuring ourselves against the upper tier by choice The aim is an interesting discussion of how we might end up stylistically (and somewhat through overall ability) altering the makeup of the F group in the next little while, to go from good to great on that front.

So in the mid third, ya. This is part and parcel with what I am saying. If you read my post I said I think the unit is “really good”. My contention is with the implication it’s sorta “set”. This isn’t your outright implication it’s just something I commonly see being intimated

Does anyone know how to do any reconciliation with the overall goal differential and the aptitude of the forwards? I don’t have any answers but the way I continually see this being broken down is clearly flawed, that much I can identify: we are simply equating “goals scored” to forwards, and “goals against” to the defensemen and goalies. Super old-fashioned. I mean, this just isn’t the way the league works. Hockey is a game of flow- 2-way ability for F is just as important as outright offence and they have an effect, certainly, on the goals given up. D the same but inverse. That is it say: isn’t our goal differential about mid pack? It would be poor form to just look at “goals scored” for every line and claim them adequate. If I had to guess, the overall goal differential while not a great individual representing mark would be more accurate for an overall evaluation of the group than simply goals one way. - - - I think our F group is really good overall and getting better, but those sorta intimating that it’s “set now” and we just need to tweak on D, maybe a 4th line F or so.. ..after our first playoff series we are going to have a little list of stuff and I can guarantee we won’t see the F unit as compete relative to formulating a unit with overall balance and ability. Some (lots, most?) of the improvement will/may even be internal, my point is inclusive of that. I just don’t think the numbers as they are presenting themselves right now, nor the eye test, nor the record, point to the F unit being among the best in the league overall, quite yet. If someone smarter has advanced stats charts breaking down the fact our F lines have all been pretty dominant and we are ONLY surrendering lots of goals against because of our D and goaltending, please post them as I could be way off. Just not what I am seeing.

For me it was more so all the questioning about whether we had seen Dahlin’s ceiling. Absurd now, absurd then.

As I mentioned a couple months ago, notorious slow starter Sam Reinhart has predictably found his game: 15 points in his last 13 games, pacing again for 60+ points on the year. Remains to be seen if last year’s 82 is an outlier. He’s definitely a 60 point player for breakfast every year, Maurice tanking Florida this year probably lowered their scoring across the board as opposed to that team last year.

Good thread. Still draws a lot of penalties as well Yep there it is: 97th percentile. It’s something that remained good even when his production / ice time was down - always an indicator he could potentially bounce back

This isn’t cap circumvention? lol I actually have no idea but it seems quite shady

You were prob joking but Not a nightmare scenario my function was merely pointing out the very low rate of a particular configuration in the relevant past. I don’t want it to not happen I couldn’t care less, if it works. Simply pointing out that while obviously possible it’s also obviously not a fluke that it’s heavily trended a certain way, historically, regardless of why. Even Dahlin playing consistently on his off hand top pair was something I thought more unlikely that not: because it’s simply not a very common thing. It’s just an odds bet: generally there’s only a couple league wide doing it on top pair and I’ve run the numbers. Of course there are always exceptions - Dahlin IS a unicorn so it certainly jives in that sense. So my guess being wrong there, I mean at this point I don’t think a top 4 all lhd is that unlikely as we got the hardest part of that out of the way. Dunno if it happens though

You are absolutely correct but/ And those conversions were wildly premature, and that’s not revisionist history on my part re: my stance in those discussions at the time I could have just read one more post

Dahlin (10) tage deal + 3 Tage (7) tage deal Cozens (7) tage deal Samuelsson (4) tage deal -3 Average: Tage Deal ..gotta say, Dahlin getting 10 rounds out the Buffalo Tage-Deals better

No doubt, we/he may (most likely will) definitely be in a spot where an extension is what both parties are after. But assuming that’s the case, it’s still going to be a deal we need to be really quite careful with. I’m not suggesting a cold business move: dumping him if he’s a good candidate for a different role on the team amendable to both parties, etc. But the new deal will be due right when the cap will actually be getting tight for us - exactly the point where cap flexibility is the most important as we are presumably trying to make deep playoff runs. Why are we seeing the long term deals from Adams of late? As brawndo mentioned the analytical trend is to pay for future performance rather than past. Tuch presents a case where, he’s likely going to be coming off career years, he’s playing so well, but turning 30: it’s a spot we need to be careful. Don’t want to overpay or, to your points: under, either. It’s far enough away still that the entire landscape will probably look vastly different by then, to the point it’s tough to even have a firm stance on it yet. It’s just historically the point at which LT deals become very dicey. The fact he’ll probably/hopefully be coming off the best stretch of his career heading into it makes it both complicated and firmly in the “good problems to have” category: but it’s one of those decisions/evaluations where I don’t envy the guy in the chair. Interesting/fun to speculate about, though.

^ That IS wrong. No idea why but I thought Botterill bridged him for some reason. Wow that’s a serious case of Mandela effect for me tbh Actually no it’s not: I was mixing his contract situation up with Reinhart’s and how he got bridges from both GMs derp.

He needs to cross 2 bridges every day on the way to the rink from his house - - - He’s recently dated and ended relationships with 2 of Jeff Bridges’ sisters - - - I believe he was given 2 bridge deals but I could be wrong

This is exactly what I’ve been saying for a year up until the last couple days haha Every data point and logical comparison points to a rather easy 10+. Just a feeling I guess. This organization is proving to be exceptional at messaging and PR and clearly has invested a lot on that front, social media etc coming out of COVID. Anyone can look at their official twitter and see the changes. Dahlin with the letter to the fans...9.95 is 10, lets be real, but an insignificant change to what he takes home will have a non-insignificant impression on the fan base. If they are even *close* to a flat 10 in negotiations I see them being smart enough to get that decimal in there at this point

I agree with this analysis to a T. But somehow at this point I do for see him taking a shave under 10.

He’s not gonna to ask for 20 million and I don’t think he asks for 12.5 like also mentioned above but there’s definitely nothing “selfish” about an individual employee asking to be paid their actual worth from their corporate bosses, especially considering the injury risks and his short careers tends to be. I really dislike this implication that players are selfish for wanting to be paid accurately and that they somehow owe something to tune of willfully taking less. It’s corporate bs. There’s nothing wrong with a player taking a bit less than they could get, not saying that either. Of course not. But it’s not owed. It’s not a “selfish or not” proposition

Ya for sure was just pointing out why he included MacKinnon

John Carlson signed 5 years ago, and his highest point total was 68 at the time of signing. Dahlin might top 90 this year. In addition Carlson was *28* at time of deal and Dahlin is 22. Frankly, Carlson getting that deal, when he did is as much an argument for Dahlin deserving to bump that up by AT LEAST 2 million than anything. Hedman’s deal was 7 years ago, that’s an eternity by way of contract upscaling. He did take 10% of the cap his first season, whereas if Dahlin gets 10 mil, he’ll be taking about 11%. If we’d like to see Dahlin come in at the same % he’d come in at 8-something a season. Can’t see it personally. Ekblad is just a bad comp, I know you aren’t saying he’s Dahlin but the comparables here are miles apart. He signed off his ELC 7 years ago for 7.5 per after a career high 36 points. On a per point basis that would track Dahlin for over 15 mil per. Yes, I know there’s more than points but clearly they were at way way different stages at time of deal. Maybe Power can get an Ekblad deal. - - - I don’t think it would be “unreasonable” for Dahlin to come in at 9.5, I just think that to the best of my abilities to look at this objectively and pretend Dahlin isn’t a Sabre, I think I’d have to have the league’s probable best, but if not soon to be, defenseman making at least 10 million

That next Tuch contract is one we need to be super careful with. Potentially even a candidate for ELC replacement

This is a good argument for not passing up the opportunity to go for a little winning now, if it can be had. Dahlin / Thompson in their primes where Dahlin, Quinn, Peterka aren’t breaking bank, etc. We’ve seen it in the past where teams (Chicago, Kane/Toews) have won with key players on ELCs In my experience the window opens a little quicker than people think and closes a little quicker too unless yo bahston

Took me a while to understand why Buffalo was listed at 0% lol It’s this or “pregame ceremony”

Guys like Alan Eagleson would lead off the 5 o’clock news around these parts back in his controversy heyday. Saturday Early

It admittedly does seem odd that we’re getting 8.5 projections for Power off an ELC and 9.5 projections for Dahlin coming off two bridges. I don’t see any way those valuations jive unless they really are doing the shiny-happy-people-holding-hands thing

I’d imagine they right the Dahlin wrong and lock up Power LT coming off his ELC