Thorner

Dahlin (10) tage deal + 3 Tage (7) tage deal Cozens (7) tage deal Samuelsson (4) tage deal -3 Average: Tage Deal ..gotta say, Dahlin getting 10 rounds out the Buffalo Tage-Deals better

No doubt, we/he may (most likely will) definitely be in a spot where an extension is what both parties are after. But assuming that’s the case, it’s still going to be a deal we need to be really quite careful with. I’m not suggesting a cold business move: dumping him if he’s a good candidate for a different role on the team amendable to both parties, etc. But the new deal will be due right when the cap will actually be getting tight for us - exactly the point where cap flexibility is the most important as we are presumably trying to make deep playoff runs. Why are we seeing the long term deals from Adams of late? As brawndo mentioned the analytical trend is to pay for future performance rather than past. Tuch presents a case where, he’s likely going to be coming off career years, he’s playing so well, but turning 30: it’s a spot we need to be careful. Don’t want to overpay or, to your points: under, either. It’s far enough away still that the entire landscape will probably look vastly different by then, to the point it’s tough to even have a firm stance on it yet. It’s just historically the point at which LT deals become very dicey. The fact he’ll probably/hopefully be coming off the best stretch of his career heading into it makes it both complicated and firmly in the “good problems to have” category: but it’s one of those decisions/evaluations where I don’t envy the guy in the chair. Interesting/fun to speculate about, though.

^ That IS wrong. No idea why but I thought Botterill bridged him for some reason. Wow that’s a serious case of Mandela effect for me tbh Actually no it’s not: I was mixing his contract situation up with Reinhart’s and how he got bridges from both GMs derp.

He needs to cross 2 bridges every day on the way to the rink from his house - - - He’s recently dated and ended relationships with 2 of Jeff Bridges’ sisters - - - I believe he was given 2 bridge deals but I could be wrong

This is exactly what I’ve been saying for a year up until the last couple days haha Every data point and logical comparison points to a rather easy 10+. Just a feeling I guess. This organization is proving to be exceptional at messaging and PR and clearly has invested a lot on that front, social media etc coming out of COVID. Anyone can look at their official twitter and see the changes. Dahlin with the letter to the fans...9.95 is 10, lets be real, but an insignificant change to what he takes home will have a non-insignificant impression on the fan base. If they are even *close* to a flat 10 in negotiations I see them being smart enough to get that decimal in there at this point

I agree with this analysis to a T. But somehow at this point I do for see him taking a shave under 10.

He’s not gonna to ask for 20 million and I don’t think he asks for 12.5 like also mentioned above but there’s definitely nothing “selfish” about an individual employee asking to be paid their actual worth from their corporate bosses, especially considering the injury risks and his short careers tends to be. I really dislike this implication that players are selfish for wanting to be paid accurately and that they somehow owe something to tune of willfully taking less. It’s corporate bs. There’s nothing wrong with a player taking a bit less than they could get, not saying that either. Of course not. But it’s not owed. It’s not a “selfish or not” proposition

Ya for sure was just pointing out why he included MacKinnon

John Carlson signed 5 years ago, and his highest point total was 68 at the time of signing. Dahlin might top 90 this year. In addition Carlson was *28* at time of deal and Dahlin is 22. Frankly, Carlson getting that deal, when he did is as much an argument for Dahlin deserving to bump that up by AT LEAST 2 million than anything. Hedman’s deal was 7 years ago, that’s an eternity by way of contract upscaling. He did take 10% of the cap his first season, whereas if Dahlin gets 10 mil, he’ll be taking about 11%. If we’d like to see Dahlin come in at the same % he’d come in at 8-something a season. Can’t see it personally. Ekblad is just a bad comp, I know you aren’t saying he’s Dahlin but the comparables here are miles apart. He signed off his ELC 7 years ago for 7.5 per after a career high 36 points. On a per point basis that would track Dahlin for over 15 mil per. Yes, I know there’s more than points but clearly they were at way way different stages at time of deal. Maybe Power can get an Ekblad deal. - - - I don’t think it would be “unreasonable” for Dahlin to come in at 9.5, I just think that to the best of my abilities to look at this objectively and pretend Dahlin isn’t a Sabre, I think I’d have to have the league’s probable best, but if not soon to be, defenseman making at least 10 million

That next Tuch contract is one we need to be super careful with. Potentially even a candidate for ELC replacement

This is a good argument for not passing up the opportunity to go for a little winning now, if it can be had. Dahlin / Thompson in their primes where Dahlin, Quinn, Peterka aren’t breaking bank, etc. We’ve seen it in the past where teams (Chicago, Kane/Toews) have won with key players on ELCs In my experience the window opens a little quicker than people think and closes a little quicker too unless yo bahston

Took me a while to understand why Buffalo was listed at 0% lol It’s this or “pregame ceremony”

Guys like Alan Eagleson would lead off the 5 o’clock news around these parts back in his controversy heyday. Saturday Early

It admittedly does seem odd that we’re getting 8.5 projections for Power off an ELC and 9.5 projections for Dahlin coming off two bridges. I don’t see any way those valuations jive unless they really are doing the shiny-happy-people-holding-hands thing

I’d imagine they right the Dahlin wrong and lock up Power LT coming off his ELC

Cozens makes more

“If Dahlin signed a bridge contract, it was because he was betting on him and especially because Buffalo did not want to pay him. Dahlin won. He's going to ask for 100 million for 8 years. If Buffalo does not want to pay him yet, he will still sign a bridge contract for 3 years and 9.5 million. Then he won't play in Buffalo anymore! Because he will ask for 20 million when he has full autonomy.“

Déjà vu

@nfreemanThe easiest way to simplify I guess is to say: what do you think Samuelsson fetches on the open market, today? Use any metric you like. The only point I was making was I think we could have signed Samuelson to roughly the same deal this summer, as last. Certainly not the case with Tage and his deal. Distinguishing between the deals he’s handed out so far was my entire point. Does that seem substantively inaccurate? I’ve already said multiple times the idea of doing it for “culture” has merit - but more provably so imo by way of the Samuelsson deal being a necessary symptom. I do not *know* that we needed to preemptively commit to Samuelsson for 7 years and doubt our culture would have been affected removing just that singular contractual aspect but to your point anyways you CANNOT theoretically remove just that as that deal is a symptom of how KA does deals and he’s done them very well overall I do disagree that he’s proven to be worth the commitment of 4 million right now over 7 years (again, it’s largely the term: locking ourselves in already, last year, seemed unnecessary). You imo keep trying to lock me into a position I’m not taking, this time you are trying to pin me on saying “only points matter” and that I must not understand the value of a defensive defenseman. I cannot stress enough that I keep saying to pick YOUR own metric** because it’s not that I’m saying “those guys” don’t have value, just that we, arguably, committed to Samuelsson, specifically, being THAT guy before was necessary. Before he had proven to be worth being paid that. I’d argue he still hasn’t. It’s a distinction you are ignoring I think: I’m not devaluing the type of player (blood, guts, whatever intangible trait you want to apply), I’m saying *by any* metric the Samuelsson deal was, imo, kinda needlessly (but not *substantially*, honestly) risky / given out too early. We are not haggling on anything other than timing, and it’s implications - not whatever you are trying to make it. Not a referendum on the viability of the role league wide, team building wise. **im not really elaborating on my metric because honestly I DO see the same value as you in the McKee and McKee like players, it’s just that pointing at guys like that is sorta the basis of most of your metric so far: I get they are good I’m just not convinced he’s that yet and certainly wasn’t after *54* NHL games. I don’t feel that’s out to lunch. Points aren’t everything but when you don’t score..well really any, it does matter. I’m not ready to discount the fact hes often hurt when that argument is appropriately applied in discussions about Sabres players, both past and present. And on sort of a tangent, that your arguments align in spirit right now with the guy who was arguing, against me, that we could *sooner be without Rasmus Dahlin for a game in the Stanley cup finals than Samuelsson* really seeks to highlight the sort of player Concept I’m arguing against, here in thread, again imho I do think he ultimately proves it a good contract. The idea that a non-locked up for 7 years Samuelsson would result in a lesser culture around here doesn’t necessarily jive for me with any kind of certainty. At least not to the extent that it makes the fact KA imo paid needlessly soon a non-interesting discussion point, that’s all. All this for a throw away comment about how I personally don’t lump Samuelsson’s contract in with Adams other *GREAT CONTRACTS* - those great contracts the operative portion. - - - Ps Dahlin looked damn good to *this* young Winnipeger, live, in person, running all over the Jets in their own building, just fine, even sans Samuelsson.

Honestly not really sure what you mean re: Cozens This is the thread we were discussing it, at the end of that page I said I thought the post that said he’d get the Tage deal seemed about right, quoting a tweet. I said I had the lowest floor at 7 mil and he got 7.1. That’s “barely correct” more than “pretty far off”. My point was that Tage being on a “discounted contract” wouldn’t inspire other players to be on a discount - Tage didn’t sign his deal thinking “Well the team is willing to make me a 10 mil guy but I’ll take 7.” It looks like it’s fair to say Cozens certainly didn’t squeeze the team but that’s not the same as offering a team discount. I’ve said in thread I think this deal looks just about right value wise under the prism of the “sign them early” strategy, non-Sabres sources seem to be suggesting the same thing - and I said the same for Tage, actually. But both players took deals *they felt were fair*. This was the point I was trying and I guess failing to make - Tage didn’t “take a discount” and he didn’t inspire Cozens to. They are logical deals. I think brawndo even said they were player/agent motivated. Tage’s deal didn’t represent a ceiling I don’t think, It’s certainly not going to represent a ceiling for Dahlin’s. - - - I already addressed this complaint in that thread actually and the rest of your post above sort of falls under the same banner: like we are speaking a different language. I don’t think you are arguing the points I am arguing / and me vice versa. Yes, I remember a guy who played during the best Sabres years of my lifetime so far lol. I think the “what the hell were the last 20 posts for” thing kinda exemplifies that for one reason or another you are either entirely missing the point of my thoughts or I’m not explaining close to properly. We 2 almost always have this issue

Imo the context is football games

Love this cause speaking of Morrissey, he’s a fun case to think about because he’s 5 years older than Dahlin and basically having the explosion of a year Dahlin is, perhaps not to quite the same extent. But Morrissey is Norris level. So worst case scenario is we are just seeing evidence of how special Dahlin is cause he’s amounting to that level at such a younger age. But the best case scenario is that Morrissey is evidence for the case that Dahlin is primed for another jump along the way. Which is kinda scary.

Secretary to the Labour Secretary

And there you have it - the bold is about my quick calculation, too just now based on percentage of team scoring. ROR was scoring points on 31% of team goals that year. If scoring per game is up .19 and he scores on .31% of that .19, that’s ~5 more points over 82

Cozens has the longest to go where it comes to catching up to what ROR provides two way - I believe he was a perennial selke candidate by voting during his prime years and led the league in takeaways at least once. I agree the scoring now favours Cozens but I wouldn’t go as far as to suggest “dead puck era” as apt Scoring is up but it wasn’t dead puck type stuff that recently