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Everything posted by Thorny
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I was just asking if he could play C - the lineup would, if he could if you actually read my tweet you’d see it was more so a thought experiment - I find my perception almost changes when I can identify a solid 1C It was absolutely not rhetorical -
“This must be some sort of rule circumvention?” - Kevyn Adams
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Has Benson ever played centre? -
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
That seems logical to me edit: actually, does it? this bears thinking about. Probably need to let this tumble dry for a bit -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
As a matter of practicality I don’t see how the model *can* account for it - my point is a function of team building not raw value comp. Let’s see if I can actually convey this- Even if the model has accurately figured out the ratio and a hypothetical +1 is exactly 1/7th the on ice value of a +7, a team won’t get as much value from the 7 pieces as the 1 due to dominance of role if you could figure out EXACTLY what McDavid’s talent was and you divided it among 23 players, which do you take? McDavid or the 23? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Well if we score 254 (269 last year) and save 10 more extra, we’ll go from a -20 to a -25. If we score 254 and the D save us 20, we’ll get to -15 -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Agree, but interesting also in terms of the mechanics of how a breakdown like that translates. Cause it’s obv not an exact comp - whatever number you a lot to McDavid, say, +20 you aren’t getting equivalent value from 20, +1 players. I don’t necessarily see a +9 accumulated majorly on the fringes as equivalent to adding a +9 to your top six -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
With our internal cap it’s actually the ~750m dollar question -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Sorry i didn’t mean ever I meant this offseason You listed a 54 goal improvement above something like that would certainly qualify -
We need dishers
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Right candidly i don’t think +impact on the fridges will translate to much of anything at all, as is usually the case. I don’t think 20 Nickels makes a dollar in the nhl, is what I’m saying. More less to me still looks like my “willing to write off JJ / Kesselring as a wash” to my eye when digging in a bit (with of course them actually preferring Kesselring by a non-negligible margin) if that’s the case we could very well be at a “probably a little bit improved, likely not enough” take you see floating around from liger and others -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Oh ok so it’s their own scale/assigned ratings, thanks. Kinda cool where does the other +7 come from, after subtracting Peterka’s 4 from Kesselrings’s 6? 1/2 each to danforth Lyon Doan and Timmins? And the guys we ditched are all zeroes? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Anyways; if you are right it means we needed to improve by 35 goals. Have we done that? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I think the way it works is you get to a certain amount of points/place in standings and the team makes it regardless of differential haha, but I take your meaning But when it says “net rating added” does that refer to plus minus? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I’m asking if it refers to standings points or goal differential We were -20 so a +9 would get us to -11 -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Oh ya I definitely agree though we’ve been in “could be good” territory for a while. Unfortunately it just doesn’t matter anymore - at least in terms of re-writing the assessment of Adams They absolutely will EVENTUALLY win. It’s well past the point of any current long tenured staff member getting credit for it -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
does the +9 refer to standings points? So the projection is an Eichel-esque WAR from Kesselring to the tune of missing the playoffs by (79+9) by 7 points? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
Thorny replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
You can’t forget that JJ, as a young player was through with his development and at his ceiling, and that the young players we have still are only just scraping the surface of their development - can’t forget that variable -
Can you imagine how screwed this franchise would be if we had any sort of reasonable expectation? Their apparent handcuffs in fielding a cup winning team are notable - I can admit that but its so, so far neither here nor there. If there’s one thing they sabres have been successful at aside from plausible deniability it’s successfully lowering expectations and the bar for success. the saving grace, our beloved excuse annihilator, is the fact we are only asking for a solitary playoff appearance and even the bad teams do that it’s still right there for them..we haven’t all left yet
