Thorner

I would have guessed the odds to be lower than 7.7. I was happy to see that number

I was merely responding to this: Maybe I’m taking it too literally but my point is that coming within one point last year PROVES it’s reasonably possible for a GM to field a playoff team here. Otherwise, you’d be arguing that you are certain there’s nothing we could have theoretically, possibly have done differently last year to bridge that one point gap. And I know someone wouldn’t possible make an argument like that

It’s not a matter of belief it’s a matter of fact: I’m not making an argument. We missed the playoffs by a solitary point last year. I can mathematically conclude it is well within this franchise’s ability to field a playoff roster

https://buffalonews.com/playoffs-is-the-expectation/article_8b0b754f-4af5-54a2-ae56-0e69a0250198.html “Next year, playoffs is the expectation. We all believe that we will be there, and we know what it takes now." Sure sounds like playoffs were the expectation. Unless there’s a massive disconnect. Disconnect between players and management? Mehhhhhhhhhh wouldn’t worry about it

You are either trying to win, or trying to develop a winner later. “Nothing” isn’t an option. Just fire everyone then - that’s not a valid suggestion, even on a message board. If we weren’t trying to win in 21-22, Adams was therefore, necessarily, managing the team that season as a means to facilitating winning in the future - the facilitation of his plan. That year simply *had* to be a tool for building the future, the endgame: otherwise it would be nothing at all. Is the suggestion that we can’t count that year because Adams *couldn’t* be taking steps during that season towards building and developing and evaluating? Was he not? Of course he was. If you don’t count it you are just writing off a year he fully worked on instituting his plan and then saying that work took place in some imaginary untouchable vacuum because we only choose to measure from the following year. Just…No lol - - - @Brawndo Didn't they *say* playoffs was the expectation, this year? We all said so in the offseason before this latest goal-post moving. If not, fine: I guess they didn’t set playoffs as the expectation until year 4 of Adams’ build (and year 5 of his tenure). But next year is still year 4. In which case, ya, maybe they give Adams a mulligan after next year (I just won’t be around for it). Even in that case, I dunno where you get the 2 or *3* more years after this one thing from. Even if they aren’t counting on playoffs till next year, three more years after this one would be missing this year, missing next (when playoffs is the expectation, if it wasn’t this year), missing the FOLLOWING year (thus missing on expectation at least 2 times (but we all know it’s really 3), and him still coming back. That would be Adams returning for his 7th year as GM, without having a playoff appearance to show for it

That’s exactly the point. It takes a lot of incompetence. Manual, human, incompetence. Choice. Potential for better.

No, next year would be year 4 post Eichel. One can’t reasonably conclude 21-22 wasn’t the first sans-Eichel year. He didn’t play a game for us and was never in the equation. The goal wasn’t to win that year, remember, it was the first development year, the first year KA’s plan was being implemented from the draft, through the offseason and into the season. Why on god’s green earth would that year not count? The fact Eichel wasn’t traded until the season actually started is irrelevant because the ETA of the return didn’t matter relative to the results that year. If that year wasn’t the first year of KA implementing his plan (trading Jack was part of that plan!!), what the hell was it? The plan was *inclusive* of trading Jack. There was no obstacle present to KA to implementing his plan in 21-22: he did exactly that.

Could be. It’s just funny cause then he’d necessarily need to start next season behind the bench, too. Which, even as someone more less neutral on Granato seems to be a very risky play And questionable at best considering results

It sure is tough titty when you start measuring roster moves by way of results

John is right. https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Moneypuck actually gives us what I’d call surprisingly high odds of making it at 7.7% currently. That is far from a negligible possibility.

It’s actually insane how much the loss of Rick takes away from the games. That’s settling in for me. Obviously obviously beyond anyone’s control but…ya

I actually thought there was a slight chance we’d see a firing today because we won yesterday: sometimes you see GM’s wanting the coach to go out with a win for whatever inconsequential reason. But we are on a west coast trip so prob was always unlikely. Maybe the all star break but I’d imagine he’s actually got the whole year, like others have said I just hope garbage time numbers doesn’t factor too heavily in the decision at end of the year

Believe me, I am right there with you. To me, we are at the most significant breaking point I’ve seen between the 13 years catching up to the fanbase when it hasn’t yet to the current regime: they want a bit more time and the fans understandably don’t have it. I think one can make a very strong case for Adams to be fired right now. No one can claim results aren’t the most important marker of success and NHL teams very infrequently miss the playoffs 4 straight years. Only a handful of teams league wide are generally at that mark. Generally franchises make moves at this point. But for better or worse we all kinda, grudgingly or not, kinda accepted/are at least aware that Adams was granted 3 free pass years: 1st was apparently written off, and the next two were “development years”. Ok, fine, but the price you pay by willingly offering those years to the gods as a sacrifice is the acknowledgment that teams often undergo returns to competitiveness in a much quicker timeframe: ie if you are going to forgo competitiveness that could reasonably be achieved in a more immediate fashion with a different strategy, you need to convert in a timely fashion once your free pass years or up. Or else, why have them at all? Which brings us to this year: the likely failure to make the playoffs in the year that was the minimum expectation. Even though we granted the 3 free pass years, im still inclined to think the most fair appraisal, most removed from my 13 years bias, is that the guy should get one mulligan. You should have to fail twice. I give him next year if it’s my choice (he’s getting it regardless) I don’t see an argument for bringing him back after 5 missed years - in fact I don’t think I’d be around to take the time to engage in it, if he’s still here at that point

What’s the “worst” is ultimately too subjective to definitively define. Do you judge based on failing to accomplish on one’s aims or having a terrible strategy? 07 for example, they tried and failed to bring back their core players. The intention wasn’t to willingly move on. This offseason, Adams did exactly what he wanted to, his plan was just awful. What’s worse? Trying and being too incompetent to succeed or being incapable of achieving the desired result even when you get your way and implement the plan of your choosing? I’d say Adams is worse, presumably if Regier at least delivered on his plan we’d be good. Adams plan was bad either way apparently. Makes the likelihood for future success lower Now, you may judge based on opportunity lost, in which case Regier’s 07 might be more to your fancy There’s a veritable smorgasbord of ineptitude to choose from, Choose Your Own Adventure!

Pretty insulting and utterly disrespectful to the fanbase waiting on 13 years, ya

He’s got one more year. At that point a “retread” is exactly what we need- not only are *all* GM’s eventually “failed” retreads, they at least accumulated some “tread”. Presumably they have experience guiding teams to the playoffs- which is exactly what we need. No chance we have the hubris to think the Buffalo Sabres are *better* than these retreads, right? Surely? If our GM can’t make the playoffs in 5 years, he’ll never be someone else’s retread, because he’ll be a “never was.”

Nah. We missed the playoffs by one point last year. We aren’t asking for a lot. It would defy logic beyond the extent of fathomable reason if we didn’t think the sum-total of the mistakes KA has made as GM couldn’t have bridged the gap for the final point. The narrative here is verging into, “is this even possible?” and thus verging into outright comedy. Yes, it’s possible with competence. No, it’s not even that hard

He’s tradable. The “poor buffalo, no one will accept a trade here (because of our own doing (look at Winnipeg), leaving out the fact half the league does not have a NTC and we are only asking the team to overcome to the extent of not being *anomalifically* bad ie it’s zero excuse)” thing goes both ways: as long as the contract is reasonable, and Cozens’ is, teams will perceive him to be suffering from the “Buffalo tax” where he’d be likely to flourish in a better environment- and I feel like the proof has been in the pudding on that Not advocating to trade him specifically, just sayin’

It’s a good point. We are clearly past the point where a turnaround can be measured in anything but sustained success to the extent of achieving an actual result: the result determined to be the minimum expectation is playoffs. They’ll have turned the corner when they make the playoffs. It’s not so much about belief right now as reality: the math is very unfavourable for making the playoffs. Turn the math around in season and then we’re talking. Until then, wins, while fun, are mathematically occasionally expected, but ultimately inconsequential. Poor teams still win a fair few games in raw quantity when you play 82

Not if he’s our best option. But best doesn’t mean adequate. It’s all relative

It’s queued up

What was your first clue

It’s why I always laugh when people look at the ROR deal and are like: “oh Tage panned out, good deal.” Perhaps the most irresistible, unmovable variable in life itself, Time, somehow seems to creep under the radar all too often. Plenty of the reason these guys didn’t do anything here and did stuff later is exactly that: timing. *When* we are adding these players and expecting them to carry the mail. *When* we choose to surround them with competent reinforcements. *When* one talent is here, and in his prime, where another is not, yet, or not yet in their prime. The roster building here has in large part been a story of missed connections. Few of them have been in the right place at the right TIME. We can accumulate talent but struggle to construct a *team*, because a good team necessarily results from a multitude of things pulling in a consistent direction at the same time. They are united in that aim. It’s not a situation where half is pulling for development: that’s improper timing relative to rest of roster that has aims of winning

There’s no sense acting like the particular combination of talent isn’t as important as the talent itself. It’s a huge concern. Casey just bears more of it right now cause so much of the rest of the core is locked up. There aren’t many spaces left really and solidifying a core that sits bottom of the league should be a concern and if it’s not, I think we’ve lost the plot. I am a Casey guy. Even when his perception was at the lowest I was saying he’d still be a good third line player. He’s been even better. But I do not know what we should do Statistical prime for forwards is like 23/24