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Thorner

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Everything posted by Thorner

  1. Itā€™s March and the math is almost impossible and the sabres are on fire. Smells like hockey season baby!
  2. As many wins over remaining games as left shots in the lineup and we make the playoffs
  3. My stance is also informed by the fact we need to make the playoffs next year. I feel like thatā€™s an incredibly fair bar for Adams and this regime, but regardless, itā€™s my bar. @DarthEbriatesaid something to me recently and it was a good reminder and hit home. At some point, it becomes my own fault for putting up with it. My line is 5 years. If we canā€™t make the playoffs next year and Adams retains his job, I am going to cut ties for my own sanity. Iā€™ll always be a ā€œfanā€ and theyā€™ll always have a place in my heart but, I canā€™t in good conscience continue following and contributing to the fandom (and this board) like I do (for some, this will undoubtedly represent a vast improvement to their fandom) I wouldnā€™t blame you at all if you choose to disregard my stance in totality because Iā€™m funnelling it so throughly through the prism of needing to make the playoffs next year. Itā€™s certainly a bias. But itā€™s admitted bias, itā€™s out there in the open. Feel free to call me out on anything that isnā€™t congruent. In my favour, Iā€™ve maintained that as the objective line well before I made it personal Ill be angsty until we make it this season, or are eliminated: Iā€™m putting that aside willingly once the offseason/next season starts: Iā€™m sure as shite not spending my last season around here wallowing. Itā€™ll be a fun year and we will either make it, or not. i may not be a ā€œseason ticket holderā€ but Iā€™ve been signing up for a front row seat for 3 decades. It represents no one but myself but as a die hard fan, this is my feeling at this time
  4. Yes, your entire plan of action is informed by such a different philosophical stance to mine I canā€™t even begin to address it on a point by point basis, it would just be a waste of both our times. You start out by looking for reasons why we need to keep each player, I start out within a stance that any asset is on the table in the name of securing a playoff spot next year i donā€™t see it as a scenario where we are ā€œcashing in the futureā€ because a couple moves, regardless of what prospects we pay, isnā€™t going to severely handicap our future. The misnomer is that we need to ā€œsell the farmā€. No, we just need to budge a few times.
  5. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x. 1/2 = 1/64 =1.6% Moneypuck had us at 1.4%. Dunno if they calculate it as simple as I did but, back of napkin seems to line up Actually, the odds should be worse as you point out @ska-T Chitownas that 1/64 run more less gets us into a toss up with those teams
  6. If 5 results break our way, and the caps go 1-2 and NJ 1-1ā€¦so letā€™s say 6 results (I think 1-1 from each caps and NJ would be the fair default so, add 1 for the extra caps loss we need) and those are the standings on Saturday night
  7. Caps go 1-2 (@Oilers @Kraken @Canucks) Devils go 1-1 (@stars @coyotes) - - - NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Washington Caps 66gp, 71 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points NJ Devils 67gp, 68 points
  8. A good place to start: Sabres win their next 3 Islanders lose an additional time in that frame, to the Senators Detroit loses to Arizona in that time frame With those 5 results breaking our way: NY lslanders 66gp, 72 points Detroit Red Wings 67gp, 72 points Buffalo Sabres 68gp, 71 points
  9. We can start with winning our next 5 games and pushing this streak to a 6 gamer. At that point if we get lucky 91 makes it (with our tiebreaker) and 8-4 over the final 12 id call doable given the kind of play weā€™d be seeing. So weā€™d need to go 8-4 (what are the odds?) and then probably a 50/50 shot at best 91 gets in. Weā€™d need those 2 things to happen but Iā€™d call them ā€œpossibleā€. There would he belief there, however unlikely. But thereā€™s no belief without that 5 game win streak, better start there. And itā€™s the hardest of the 3 to accomplish We assuredly canā€™t lose 2 games in the next 5. 4-1 is the bare minimum. 2 losses in the next stretch would have us needing like 10-2 to wrap up, but realistically, 11-1. Not gonna happen. They have to go 4-1 over next 5, minimum
  10. My theory on Feds is thereā€™re like mushrooms: feed em sh*t and keep ā€˜em in the Dahhhk
  11. And below them when you factor in points percentage as the teams above us have games in hand. What is the flex? That we managed to be a bit worse than a team that finished 20th? A big part of their skid seems to time with his absence
  12. What are the odds we can go 11-3 after doing so? Thatā€™s probably about what the math would tell you we can only afford to give away 6 more points this season over the remaining 17 games, if the cut off stays at 93 It could potentially fall, but it wouldnā€™t be more than a point or 2 If we win the next 3 weā€™d have to go at least at least 10-4. But that probably doesnā€™t get us in
  13. The lack of urgency in addressing that hole for a team that hasnā€™t made the playoffs in a decade was absurdly troubling ā€œoh, heā€™ll be back mid seasonā€. As if the games beforehand donā€™t represent crucial, unmissable points to this team
  14. As far as your argument goes itā€™s fine. I agree they were in shambles relative to expected results. I donā€™t agree we were in shambles relative to turnaround to achieving success: that seemed to be the way KA was using it: as an excuse. ā€œLook, it takes a long timeā€ Only by way of choice only by way of competence only a master of evil, darth
  15. Thereā€™s ā€œshamblesā€ based on expected performance and ā€œshamblesā€ based on distance from success. I think my argument is consistent here because, even as captain of the ā€œKA has failed so farā€ fan club, Iā€™m also not the dude firing him and Iā€™m also not the dude saying with a few prudent changes this canā€™t be turned around fast you are correct I wanted JB canned but thatā€™s not the same thing as thinking the franchise was in shambles relative to turn around to success: merely by way of how much we had failed relative to expectations We absolutely should be a playoff team next year. We absolutely should have been this year. I wouldnā€™t be firing KA because heā€™s fallen incredibly short, Iā€™d be firing him because it would be incredible we fell short so many times when distance from success was imminently achievable I post a lot, Iā€™m not sure how much more heavy handed I can be in driving home this point time and time again: the frustration comes from the fact this is ABSOLUTELY salvageable but we simply refuse to measure results in the now - - - Frankly, and this is based on league wise results of the past, solid past precedent: a team with the will to act, with that will informed by competence, is very rarely more than a single offseason away from reasonably fielding a playoff team when itā€™s ~ a 50/50 proposition. And that team *should* be able to do it with 2 off seasons Nearly 70% of the current league hasnā€™t gone more than *2* seasons sans playoffs This will be Adamsā€™ 5th offseason
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