mjd1001

Hopefully. Last year Cozens got the 2nd most minutes penalty killing under Granato, and he was on the first pk unit at the start of the game yesterday under Ruff. Maybe once the full lineup is playing, those guys will be on the ice instead. Last year, the top 6 guys in terms of Short handed time on ice per game played among forwards were Greenway, Tuch, Cozens, Quinn, Zemgus and Tage. Of those 6, Cozens was on the ice for the most goals allowed per 60 minutes (9.06). The 2nd worst was Greenway at 6.48. The 'eye test' watching him way out of position leads one to think he is the worst on the team at penalty killing. The stats back up that he is the worst on the team at penalty killing (by quite a bit). As you said, I hope those other guys are on the PK, but seeing Cozens out there right away in preseason game one, and seeing just how bad he did is something that was noticeable and I didn't like.

I have a hard time evaluating Benson. He has played better than I thought he would and obviously his coaches like him a lot. I DO see he is rarely out of position which is good, but I do not see speed or a big shot (or even accurate one), so I have a tendency to still think he is a 'high floor' but 'lower ceiling' guy. Hopefully I'll be proved wrong. The simple fact he made the team last year at 18 and was praised by both Granato and Ruff is a good sign.

If you watched the replay, even equating what Quinn does to what Cozens did is just WAY off base. Quinn is staying in close to his position. Please show me where Quinn chased a guy up high and totally opened up a wide area of the ice that the opposing team took advantage of. I'd like to think Lindy didn't give Cozens free authority to go all the way across the ice, all the way to the blue line, then crosses both Quinn and the D-man down low, gets stuck in the corner across the ice from where he is supposed to be, and then the shot leading to the goal being scored is taken from the spot on the ice that is now 100% vacated by him. I don't have a problem with Cozens pressuring a guy up high if its the right time. I do have a problem with him chasing the puck all around the ice, while his teammates stay in position, attempting to cover for him until its just too much to do. Quinn did nothing even close to being out of position as Cozens, are you even watching the same goal? There is a difference between chasing a defender up high..and what Cozens did. Cozens chases the defender a LOT higher, goes all they way across the ice, then goes all the way into the corner. What Cozens did wrong isn't even close to what Quinn did.

Finally 1 second before the goal was scored. Quinn is up high but trying to defend 2 people up high. The D-man down low has to kinda play half way between both guys on the near side. Cozens has been out of position for the last few seconds, the D-man has to make a choice, drop down low to cover the guy near the crease, leaving the shooter WIDE open and can basically sit there with all the time in the world analyzing the situation.....OR...he can take cozens spot and challenge the shooter, leaving the guy down low wide open. Cozens leaves the D-man in a no-win situation, and the area he vacated was where the goal came from. If Cozens was where he was supposed to be, the guy taking the shot wouldn't have so much space and so much time AND the guy who tips the puck in could be covered better by the D-man on that side. He did this ALL last year, he was a disaster on the PK. He got slightly better, but this happens with him time and time again. How can the coaches not see this and not correct it? and if he refuses to learn why is he out there? I get it, but my bigger issue is why Cozens doesn't learn. He is used out there pretty frequently, last year and the year before, and he does this all the time. How can he not figure out that he is the single biggest detriment to the Sabres PK and he keeps on doing it? BTW, he also does this even strength. When the Sabres get pinned in their own zone, he will start chasing the puck all over the ice like a dog chasing a squirrel. Often times goals are scored because of his lack of discipline that way. Now the 2nd half of last year he got better, but its just a little discouraging to see him so blatantly go back to bad habits less than 5 minutes into the first preseason game.

about 2 seconds before the goal was scored: Now Cozens is way out of the play, he tries to get back over to his slot but he has zero chance.

I watched the replays of the goals, and the same thing I don't like about Cozens happened again, he just doesn't learn. Last year we talked about, and I posted some pictures/videos that showed the Sabres PK was actually really good WHEN guys held position in the traditional PK box. It caused the other team to pass the puck around the perimeter, but they basically didn't allow many good scoring chances. When the Sabres got in trouble on the PK last year, it was mostly when they lost discipline. When they started chasing the puck. And the #1 offender of doing that and allowing goals was Cozens. Some things just don't change. Look at the replay of the first goal allowed last night and watch Cozens. About 4 seconds before the goal was scored, Cozens takes himself out of position, on the wrong side of the ice near the blue line. You can already see the #41 on the penguins wide open, as Cozens 'chased'. That was the guy that took the wide open shot that was deflected in as a goal. about 3 seconds before the goal was scored: -Cozens went from being out of position up high, to chasing the puck into the corner WAY down low, had zero chance of getting it and totally took himself out of the play. You can see #41 is wide open, waiting for the clear pass that he turns into the shot that eventually went in

Tage I truly believe was hampered by his injury last year. He didn't have just 'one' career year shooting at 15%, he did it both years since he was made a center, only last year with his injury was he lower. And guess what? As the year went on and he got further away from that injury (healed later in the year) he finished up the last 2 months shooting at almost 17%. 2 years at over 15%, an injury bringing it down (that is what I'm going with) and toward the end of the injured year back above 16%. I'm betting without a major injury, Tage is at least at 15%, with close to 300 shots give you a 40-50 goal scorer. Cozens, This year we will see, I guess, if he is a 16-22 goal guy, or a 30-35 goal guy like he played as 2 years ago. Quinn, if he plays a full season, can he be a 30 goal guy? Peterka we already think of as 'almost' a 30 goal guy' (he ad 28 in his 2nd year). ANY improvement gets him over 30. Tuch, he was almost a 40 goal guy 2 years ago (36 goals with a handful of missed games). I personally thin of all the players above, THAT was his career year and will be hard to repeat, but with him and Tage healthy, maybe? Every one of those players has a realistic potential to be 30-40 goal guys, Tage closer to 50. Will they all do it? Well, if they don't this team is struggling to make the playoffs. If more of them do than don't, this IS a playoff team.

Its possible, but his drop-off in goals last year doesn't seem to him playing a 'different style'. When you look at basic-to-mid metrics, he played pretty much the same game (in the offensive zone) as the year before, by the numbers. To me it looks like the only thing different is he simply did not convert on his chances last year: -2.6 shots per game the year before, 2.54 shots per game last year. Nearly identical in terms of how many shots he took. -Even more telling is if you look at where he took those shots from, the chart is very, very close for each year. (Shot chart attached below). He took a small number of shots less from directly in front of the net and a bit more from farther out, but not enough to make a huge difference). -I didn't attach the shooting percentage charts, but if you look at them, again, its not so much where he took the shots from but his rate of converting. From the 'high danger' chances in front of the net between the circles and up to the circles 2 years ago he had 68 shots and 13 goals (over 19% shooting percentage from that area). Last year he had 5 goals on 54 shots (9.3% shooting percentage, less than half the previous year) from the high danger areas. Close to the same shots/opportunities from the same spots on the ice, he just didn't convert for some reason. -On NHL edge, his top skating speed is almost identical. The average length he carried the puck is very close. Even his metrics that are different aren't VERY different. I haven't looked deep into the super-mega advance stats, but from his 'regular' stats, to some of the mid level ones, he played the same game, with close to the same opportunities over the past 2 seasons. The only thing that changes in a big way was his shooting percentage. Basically, the reason for his drop-off in production was primarily he how well he finished when taking the shot. The opportunities and positions were almost the same.

I really would like Kulich to play so well in camp he forces himself on the team, so we can actually get a better answer to this.

I think people underestimate the impact he has on the 'defensive' side of the game, at least slightly. Now, there is a difference between 'defensive play' and 'defensive impact.' Maybe he's not going hard into the corners and winning a ton of loose pucks in the D-zone. Maybe he's not coming up behind players and taking the puck away numerous times a game. Yeah, I get that. But, just by his size and reach, he has an positive defensive impact on the game that often isn't noticed. How many passes are NOT made or not completed by the opposition because his size and reach takes up so much room in the center of the ice? How many plays are prevented in the defensive zone with him just standing on the slot because of his size compared to a guy who might be 5'11"? Is it a TON of plays? maybe not, but I think it would be naive to say it doesn't matter at all. Its like CBs in football, you notice the guy who plays great man-to-man and sticks with the WR that you can see, but sometimes a guy who just sits in the zone can have just as much of an impact on the play.

A lot is being made of how good Kulich looks, but he hasn't shown it yet against NHL competition. Benson, he hasn't produced at a super high level but as a young rookie played a solid game all around. As they both get experience and older, who is eventually better?

Short answer for me. Yes. Long answer, it is SOOO much more complicated. What do you consider a good center? One who can excel in the role you put them in, so they may be a top player for YOUR team but not so on another team with different teammates? What do you want them to do? Is a 50 goal scorer who is below average defensively better or worse than a guy who scores 30 but is a shut down, penalty killer, on the ice protecting a lead at the end of the game guy. For me, the way a forward can change a game the most is by scoring goals, not preventing them. Yes, preventing them is important, but the best-of-the-best defensive center I think matters a bit less than the best-of-the-best producer of goals. So I put a bit more weight on that. Tage, for me, I think his production was down because he was playing through an injury. Every center in the league being healthy, I think Tages gets you close to 50 goals, and for me, that puts him in the 5th-10th best in the league. So top 15? yeah. I also think he was very effective as a penalty killer last year when given that chance. His size and reach allows him to 'hold is ground' and not start 'chasing' in his own end. He did well at it. Now, that was with DG's system, will he have the same role with Ruff? Maybe not, but in one defensive part of his game (Penalty killing) he showed he could use his size/reach and be very good at that at times.

Krebs hit Thompson that caused Thompson to get hurt? or 'threw a hit' on Thompson? There is a difference. I can't think that in the first 10 minutes of practice in camp that are allowing/encouraging full contact on each other. Well, my hope for this season, and I have been saying this all offseason. 1.) Thompson is good enough to score 50. 2.) Dahlin plays like a top 5 D-man in the league. Those were the 2 most important things to me for the season. If Dahlin and Thompson are both hurt 15 minutes into camp..wow.

He was the first one on the ice, so I don't think he's sick or something minor like that...Possibly the absolute worst thing that could happen to this franchise right now...if your best player gets hurt 20 minutes into training camp. Hopefully its nothing long term.

Captain: Dahlin. A's: Tuch and Thompson If its anything different than that, I'd be surprised. The only 2 other 'top players' that are likely to be here for a while would be Cozens and Power, and I don't see either of them as captain or assistant material now. Samuelsson I would put in this group also but can you play 65+ games in a single season first? Plus, you give an "A" to Tuch. Hes only under contact for this season and next. Hopefully you get him re-signed. But if for some reason you don't, that opens up a spot for someone else (Maybe Cozens or Power, Quinn) to move into in 2 years IF its open.

I'm not saying they are the same players. I'm just saying Krebs does not excel in any other area (defense, getting back to his own end quickly, faceoffs, physical play)...he's at best 'another guy' in those areas...so I feel he should get the league minimum. If there is anything that justifies more than that, its if he has shown signs of production, and my comparison shows, compared to others in the league that did sign for much lower values, he has not even shown that. Yeah, their situations are different, different teams, different longevity in the league. The one thing that is not different is neither has shown they are a complete player and you really don't have much of a reason to give over league minimum for both. One accepted that and took a lower deal, a 'prove it to me' deal. The other either wouldn't accept that, or was offered much more when it wasn't needed/justified. Robertson gave the leafs SOMETHING (scoring in the teens over 56 games, a 20+ goal pace) and that still wasn't enough to justify more than what he accepted. I don't even get close to that out of Krebs, and I personally don't think he brings much in any other part of the game, to justify what he got.

I'm not devasted by this, its not a big deal, but why I don't like this deal that much... Peyton Krebs. Hes not a bruiser, he's not a speedster. I haven't seen him play a game where I said "wow, he's really effective at forchecking". I HAVE seen him on the ice for goals scored against the Sabres where if he was one step faster, put in a tiny bit more of an effort to catch up to the play or was faster, a goal wouldn't have been scored when it was. So basically, I do not see anything that shows me is is anything else other than "another guy' in every way besides scoring. So what about production? Nick Robertson last year...14 goals in 56 games. Peyton Krebs last year....4 goals in 80 games. Robertson: 1 year deal at $875,000. Krebs yet gets $1.45m per year and double the term.

I think its a bit too much, what options did he have? and what is he going to bring to the team? On the other hand, its not really hurting them with cap space all that much. They have the room this year and likely next year. I still think its too much.

Quinn's career shooting percentage is about 13%. Can he shoot 15% over a full season? yeah, not a stretch. Now, where can he play where you can get him 250 shots per season? He functions best between the dots. 250 shots at 15% is 37 goals.

I agree with most of this. To me Krebs is now a '12th-14th' level forward on most teams, a AAAA player (to use a baseball term). He is basically 'just another guy' that, POSSIBLY because of his pedigree/observed 'raw' talent as a 1st rounder, sill has a CHANCE of becoming better, but not a great chance at this point (10% or less). To me he's at the same level/same place as Tyson Jost was a few years ago. Krebs was a 17th overall pick, Jost was the 10th overall pick. In Jost's 2nd and 3rd years he showed offensive promise (double digit goals both years) to never be shown again. Krebs, in his 3rd and 4th years almost hit double digits, but fell down to 4 in 80 games last year. Jost then got traded for an undrafted journeyman (Nico Sturm) who is a career 3rd/4th liner. Then after 2 years (and about 30 total games), Jost was waived. I kind feel Krebs is someplace close to that in his career now. If he signs, he signs. If not, oh well.

Not on their 'resumes' so to speak, but it could be about style, a 'forcheck' first thing Ruff maybe wants? All 4 of those guys are consistently in the top 10 percentile of fasted skaters in the league. Greenway is not. That doesn't mean Greenway won't make the team, but if style of play means anything, all of those guys above have something Greenway does not, and they all were aquired/selected AFTER Ruff became coach. I personally think you just take the best guys from camp. Sure they may have who they THINK will be on the roster, but I think what you do is have an open mind, and the top 12 guys that fit the roles you want them to fit in, you take them. If Kulich outperforms Krebs, then he gets a spot over Krebs. If Greenway outperforms Aube-Kubel, he gets that spot...and so on. Let camp play out.

I don't have a problem with Tuch or Thompson. Tage took a step forward taking an additional role penalty killing (and I thought he did a decent job) and I'm personally pretty sure a lot of the drop in his production is due to his injury. The fact he played though it is a minor plus. Tuch, kinda the same, there is no doubt at the beginning of they year he was playing hurt, he missed time and practices in training camp and in the early season. Plus his drop in production was partly due to injury and partly due to him having what I think was his career year the previous year. Plus I think he puts the effort in to be one of the best forcheckers in the league. I guess with those 2, I don't see a problem with their play. Cozens, I agree I'm not sure he should get a letter. He may be a 'high energy' player, but I don't think hes a smart player (yet) and he certainly is not someone you rely on in tough situations. Now, that is all on ice stuff. How much should it matter off-ice or Locker room? I guess a lot and I don't know what goes on there. But, as above, my personal opinion is Tuch and Thompson were not a 'problem' with this team last year, and to the extent they were it was somewhat injury and expectation related.

A lot of people want Greenway around, but a 'top 9' spot can be had if Kulich is awesome in camp, and I think Greenway ($3 salary, last year) might be the odd man out, or at least the guy in the press box IF Kulich gets a spot in Buffalo.

I think at this point ,if there was any doubt, Miami is nothing more but a middling, average team overall. The 70 points against Denver and just the thought of how much speed they have on offense, at least for me, made me think they were/are more dangerous than they actually are. This year they barely beat Jacksonville at home, and lost to the Bills, who were in total control of the game even before Tua got hurt. The Bills team without its best LB and losing their 2nd best...with questions and inexperience at Safety....that is the team Miami had trouble moving the ball on. Last year they were shut down in the playoffs. In the regular season they allowed 56 to Baltimore in getting obliterated by them...and in Playing Buffalo (twice), Baltimore, Dallas, KC, and Philly (The best teams they played), were a total of 1-5, with squeaking out a couple point victory against Dallas at home, and being outscored by 93 points in the other 5. The Bills did what they needed, they had a few injuries, the flew to Miami on a short week, Allen may not have been 100%, and they got the Win. Buffalo did what a good team does. Miami? Even with Tua I'm no longer worried about them, but without him, whatever. The big story about the game is the Tua head injury. Beyond that, THIS is the game that 100% convinced me that viewing Miami as any kind of thread (even with Tua) is just frauduant.

Sidney Crosby, remember, had some serious concussion issues also. At one point I remember there were people telling him to call it a career, back in 2011 and 2012. But, they didn't rush him back like the Dolphins did with Tua a couple years ago. I think Crosby missed over 100 games in 2010-2012, but he got healthy, and it hasn't been a huge issue later in his career. As you said, the Dolphins should have given him a full year off, and honestly, if this is more than minor (looks like it might be somewhat serious), they can't be thinking of their 'season', he needs time off.