mjd1001

Not to make light of what he did, but he gets 4 games rest. When he comes back he's 'fresh' again and only has 10 more games of wear on him before possible playoffs (or 10 more games to potential get hurt, not 17) His contract this year is HEAVY on bonuses based on his sack totals for the season. Those 4 games are possibly going to cost him a lot of money.

There is reason for optimism. It may not guarantee the playoffs, but anyone looking toward the good side of things can find legit reasons: -2 years ago missed the playoffs by one win -last year were a positive goal differential. In recent years 95%+ of teams in the east with a positive goal differential made the playoffs. -Took them a while to settle on UPL, but once they did, the team was close to a top 10 team in the league, and not just over 10-15 games, we are talking 40-50+ games. From January 1 to the end of the season (44 games, more than half the season) they were 24-18-2, with a plus 24 goal differential. Thats very close to the time the settled on UPL as their starter (he started 39% of the games before Jan 1, after Jan 1 the started 81% of the games) -Tage played hurt for a lot of the year. The part of the year closer to his injury his production was way down. As he got farther from it, he started producing a lot more, basically at the level of the 2 years before. Since being made a center, tage had 2 full seasons that were great, one half season bad and another half season close to great. The only 'bad' stretch was when he was hurt. -Coaching? If you think Ruff is better than Granato (many do), if nothing else changed, that should be a net positive. Again, none of this means you are making the playoffs, but if someone is being positive, this year its not grasping at straws, those are just a few of the legitimate reasons to be positive.

I was curious to look at the roster and see what differences will be made this year vs last year opening the season. Compared to game #1 last year vs what we expect this year: -New to the forward group game 1: Quinn (was hurt last year), Zucker, Mcleod, Malenstyn, Lafferty, Aube-Kubel Out from forwards: Krebs (likely), Okposo, Zemgus, Mitts, Skinner, VO -New to defense: Byram (in for E. Johnson) -New to goal: UPL (he didn't dress for the opener last year he was the #3 guy at the time) Coaching: Ruff and Appert are the 2 main guys of course, both changes from last year. So, going into game #1, 50% different lineup in forwards, 17% difference on D. New starting Goalie. Of the 19 players that should play on any given game, 11 will be the same and 8 will be different from last years team (42% turnover from last year's game 1), and a new coaching staff too.

Well, and his talent level/production also, I think that is the biggest thing. Josh Allen I think you can say is one of the top 10 most influential players in all of football right now in term of contributing to wins...A case can be made he is the 2nd best. Eichel was never close to that. In a league where point production is paramount for forwards, in a prospect where he was supposed to be 'elite' in that way, he is 39th in the league in points since he joined the NHL, 25th in points per game played, 45 in goals...and finally got his cup when he was added to a team that averaged 103 points per 82 games and had deep playoff runs over the previous 4-5 years BEFORE he was added to it. Yeah, Eichel is long gone from Buffalo, but the problem with Eichel as the 'savior', Eichel as the "Josh Allen" of the team is....we as fans had EXPECATIONS he would be that, but it turned out he was just a very very good player, not generational, not elite, etc. It was unfair to expect him to carry this team to the playoffs and a deep run.

For the difference being 7.8 vs 8.5, this is rather contentious. Of course to take the Bruins side of things, if they started at 6.5..maybe realistically hoping for 7.0....and if Swayman hasn't budged one bit from what he was asking....IF that is true I can understand the Bruins/Neely being a bit upset. Lot of Ifs though..

I get the feeling the Easter Conference will be a bit tougher than the west to make the playoffs, especially because once the Devils are healthy I think they are going to be really, really good. (there goes one playoff spot by a team that didn't get it). With that said, we can convince ourselves that the team might be better simply with a coaching change. But it is hard to think this team being worse than it has been. So, in my mind, I have a team that could/should be better with a new coach, probably won't be worse with a new coach..that is a net 'slight' positive. Put that in a very tough conference, and its really a coin toss to me making the playoffs. I voted yes simply because, well, why not?

I know that all goes into the 'roster building', but to be the best team, you have to worry a bit less about who you build a team for, and just make the best overall roster so everyone else has to worry about how they beat YOU. Of course, with this being a 'cap-reset' year, this probably wasn't the year for that.

So, I think they needed a few extra bodies, but you can say Kulich and Rousek were on this trip for sure because they are Czech. That makes it look like without those 2, Krebs would be the 'odd man out', the '13th forward' who doesn't make the opening night roster. Personally, I thought Greenway had a chance of not making the opening night roster, and even a slight chance he could be moved. Guess I was WAY wrong on that. Not only has he been on that 3rd line all camp, Lindy talked about him this morning (or yesterday) and was just gushing about him. Seems to really REALLY like his play.

Buffalo at that level would seem to not be a bad prediction..but.. Boston at 86 points with as low as 77? And that is with the model assuming Swayman plays, but end up playing less games than Korpisalo. Also interesting the model for the Sabres only has UPL playing 41% of the games for the Sabres, and that 'assumes everyone is healthy'. He rates players apparently by a 'synthetic goal' model (must be kinda like goals above replacement??) McLeod ends up being the Sabres best forward, with Tuch and Tage being slightly above average and it looks like both Peterk and Cozens are below average. Has Byram rated as a D-man deep into the negative territory. I know its a computer simulation, and maybe uses some really really deep advanced stats, but a lot of that just doesn't seem right.

I was thinking the opposite, a rough start with them getting better as the season goes long: -Tough first couple games against Jersey, new coach/new system, pretty big roster turnover in the bottom line(s) a somewhat disjointed camp (the 'main guys' will not have played an equal/talent squad at all through camp/preseason), trip to Europe, etc.

With Savoie, was it more: -We really want McLeod, and we might have to overpay to get him. Savoie is a very valued prospect, but that is what we need to give up... -Or- -Savoie hasn't shown much progress in the 2 years he's been here in various camps...lets move him now while we can still get something for him.

I looked for about 1 minute and can't find an official 'stats' page for the Oilers in preseason, but from what I read: -In the Oilers version of the 'prospects challenge' he played 3 games and got 1 assist. -In 4 preseason games he got 1 assist, looked good in the first 2 games (overall game) looked really out of place, (code for bad) in the last 2. Again, that is what I got from an article about him so far, haven't seen those stats verified.

Lafferty I remember as being very fast, and when I looked up his numbers he is show as 93/96, not 67/69? Also Aube-Kubel I see as 94/93, not 80/50

Being physical yes. I agree and I'd like to see how they match up against most teams. The thing with Boston is, they should be able to handle the speed. A lot of people seem to think Boston is slow. They aren't. They don't have any burners (Maybe Beecher is), but up front, Lindholm, Jones, and Frederic are pretty fast, Pastrnak is above average, and they don't really have anyone 'slow'. (maybe Poitras and Brazeau are slow, but they aren't going to be getting bit minutes.) Overall in terms of skating speed they are above average, and I think you can say based on their forcheck, they put the effort in. Toronto, that is the team that will be interesting to see play against this Sabres team. The Leafs to me do well whey they can 'out talent' you and you don't make them skate. But put them against younger team with Raw talent that just push and push and push and Toronto doesn't like that, and almost shuts down in games like that. That is the matchup that will be fun to watch.

I didn't have experience with insurance but... Hurricane Charley hit Florida 2 decades ago, and I was just out of college and lived in an apartment complex in Daytona. I think by the time it got across the state it was all the way down to a category 1 over Daytona, but it still did damage (a few small planes were left out at the airport and they flipped over, some power lines and trees down, you didn't want to drive on the streets because you would likely get a flat tire, etc) But the biggest thing I remember was losing power. A lot of us lost power, but within a couple days MOST Of the area had it back on. However, the complex I lived in, the power lines that fed our complex ran through a wooded field behind our complex, that was not only dense with trees but was absolutely flooded. They couldn't get workers/trucks back there to repair the power until it dried out. I watched a few blocks to each side get their power back but I didn't have it for a full week. Living in the aftermath of a hurricane, that whole week temps were near 90, with rain and humidity pushing the heat index up to 100 degrees. No Air conditioning. No refrigerator or freezer. No fans. Upper floor apartment complex. I was off from work the entire week and I got in my car everyday and drove up north almost all the way to St. Augustine to walk around a mall in the middle of the day to cool off and get gas, until the Mall in Daytona (a 5 minute walk from my apartment complex) got power back and then I just hung around there all day.

I'm not a huge traveler, not one of those people who does go to Europe on a regular basis (or certainly we can't afford to go often at all), but when we did go, Germany was my favorite place. I wasn't impressed with London or Paris (was only in each of them for a couple of days, seemed kinda dirty and over-rated to me), Italy was a mess and crowded, but Germany had that feeling of "You are for sure in a different country with different customs and language-yet it kinda feels comfortable like home" I don't think we'll find out too much about the team, but its kinda fun to watch an event like this.

I agree with you on that. If we hear quite a bit from both the Bills and Sabres, and even in past years, some players "don't need a letter to be a leader" then why rotate letters? I would have gone with Dahline as Captain (Tuch my 2nd choice but ultimately I think Dahlin is the choice), with Tuch and Thompson as the A's. Samuelsson and Cozens? They haven't earned it with overall play yet. If Tuch isn't here in 2-3 years, one of those 2 can step into the "A", but I'd rather just go with the 3. Then again, I don't think it means much for the success or failure of the team.

Samuelsson is interesting. Most of us on here think he can be a good-to-very good Defenseman when he is healthy, yet last year he seemed to take a slight step back. Wonder what he is like in the room? what he is like with Lindy or KA. He 'only' a 24 year old D-man with about 150 career games played (less than 2 full seasons), so to be named an alternate is a bit surprising.

I guess thats true. First, you get the games out of the way, 2nd as you said they are all playing together. 3rd, ALREADY the devils blue line is turning into a mash unit. It looks like Luke Hughes won't play for a few more weeks, so he's out. Brett Pesce is the Devils big addition to the blue line this year, I read a few days ago he is still recovering from his broken leg and hasn't taken part in camp yet, and he's 50-50 whether he plays against the Sabres to open the season. With Hughes injured, Santeri Hatakka was thought to step up into the bottom pairing, but he got hurt in their preseason game against montreal and there hasn't been an update to his status yet.

That both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are so highly regarded (and I agree with that) is the reason I think New Jersey has a shot at being the best in the conference, and the presidents trophy this year, IF they can stay somewhat healthy. Its also the reason I hate the Sabres are playing them the first 2 games of the year. The Sabres could be a playoff team, could be vastly improved, but they might also look really bad starting the season 0-2 because they have to play the Devils in Europe 2 times.

I no longer agree with the 'too young' part for the core: -Tuch is 28, this is his 9th NHL season, 450+ games played. 4 years playoff experience, 66 games played in the playoffs. -Thompson turns 27 next month, going into his 8th NHL season, 370+ games played -Cozens turning 24 later this season, going into his 5th NHL season, 280 games played -Dahlin 24 (25 by end of season), going into his 6th season, 430+ games played (and a LOT of minutes in those games) -Byram is 23, 6th nhl season this year, 160+ games played, plus 2 playoffs runs, 1 cup, and several playoff rounds -Even the 'younger' core has Quinn (4th season, although partial and he is 23), Peterka (turning 23 this year, over 160 games played), Jokiharju (25, 6th season, 350 games played) and Samuelsson (turning 25 this season, 5th year with the team)...its not like they are raw rookies anymore. Sure, when your Defensemen average 22 years old and you have a ton of forwards 19-22 its an issue. But that isn't the case anymore. Statistically there have been a lot of studies that forwards hit their peak in production (and for advanced stat people, wins above replacement) at ages 25-28...that is their peak. D-men tend to peak a little later, but approach that peak also by age 24-26. You brought in Zucker. He's not a 'core' piece, but I don't think he's totally washed up either. 32 years old. 700 games played. 9 different seasons in the playoffs. Over the last 3 seasons still scoring at a 23 goal per 82 game pace. I don't think you need to bring in more veterans at this point. Lafferty, Kabel, and McLeod aren't 'core' pieces, but they do look like they might be good in their roles, they ARE going to play a lot, and they all have several playoff runs in their past (some deep runs to the cup final) At this point the team/core doesn't need to get older or more experienced, they simply need to get better/reach their potential. They are at the age they should be.

Not related to any league news right now but I thought this was interesting: From 1988-1998 (11 seasons), the Stanley cup was won in a 4-0 sweep 6 of the 11 years. Yeah, the cap wasn't there, but it wasn't always the same team, Only Detroit won it 2 times that way, the other 4 times were 4 different teams. (Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Edmonton) Since 1998, we have gone 25 seasons in a row with no sweep in the final. Tampa won it back to back. Chicago was good enough to win it 3 times in 6 seasons...but not one single sweep.

I get your point. My view on Thompson is based on the assumption that he puts in 40-50+ for the Sabres this year. If he isn't hurt and he is falling painfully short of that...than my opinion of him as a top 10 center will be no more.

I still don't think Samuelsson is getting a letter...but not too long after Lindy got the job, he said something about Samuelsson and I thought no one is talking about him, but 'he has a chance'. I wish I could find the exact comment, but something pointed to him as an option.

Ok, let me break down my opinion: -Per my other post, I think he 'is', and 'will be' a 40-50 goal scorer. (and in my previous post I used shooting percentage as the reason why). So I'm not comparing shooting percentage to other centers or other positions. Simply saying I think his offensive production is in the 40-50 goal area at least, over a full 82 game season. -Defense. I think his size makes him average-to-above average. You don't need to see hits, you don't need to see how much time he has with the puck. I notice 3 things: 1.) He seemed very good at penalty killing, his size and reach allows him to stay in the same spot and cover a lot of ground without chasing. He rarely is out of position because he doesn't need to be. Not all 'advanced' stats or all metrics will show that. 2.) I used the analogy with him and Cozens, but because of his size that he demonstrates during PK, he is very good at playing "zone" defense. Opposing players may simply not make a pass, not attempt to sqeeze into a spot because they know there is less room with him out there. To me that is common sense with any guy who is as big/tall as he is that has at least decent mobility. Not only is it common sense, but you can SEE it when you watch him play without the puck. Again, Lindy the other day went out of his way to say how good Thompson has been playing 'without the puck'. Put the 2 together...a player who I think (for the above reasons) is a 40-50+ goals scorer...and is actually GOOD defensively (in ways that cannot always be measured, there are less metrics to measure a 'negative' that is a positive) and that is why I put him in the category of a top 15 center in the league. If someone can/will/does score 40-50 goals in a full season, and their defensive game is 'pretty good'. I consider that a top 15 center (as I said in a previous post, he is probably in the 8-20 range but that can be 'top 15' because there isn't much of a difference in IMO between the 8th best and the 20th best. That is my opinion. That is why I answered yes he is. I'm not sure how else I can explain that (I have explained all of the above in previous posts) other than you just wanting to disagree with me.