mjd1001

We can go back and forth on this for a very long time... And yes there are a lot of problems with the tea...but Most of the first three games comes down to one thing for me. Not converting on their chances. And yes, they've had some good chances. We can argue all day whether or not Tage is as good as his career year or not. Whether Cozens is a scorer or not. Weather Mitts should have been traded or not. Those are all valid medium to long-term discussion topics But the record the first three games and their performance to first three games comes down to this: They are not converting good chances into goals. They are not converting their chances into goals at the same rate they did last year They are not converting their chances into goals at the same rate they did 2 years ago. They are not converting their chances into goals at the same rate as their career averages say they should be For the most part, they have played pretty well in their own end with a couple of glaring mistakes, but overall good enough to win. Their goaltending has been overall good enough to win. If they simply would convert on their chances at the rate these players do normally, throughout their careers, they'd have one win, possibly 2. The team may not be a cup winner because Ruff may not be good enough of a coach. The team may not be a playoff team because Adams hasn't made enough moves or the correct moves. But the coach who is here, the guys who are here, the reason they are 0-3 is simply because of their shooting in these particular three games being worse than it normally is.

Panthers won the cup last year: -started 0-2, including getting shut out and allowing 8 goals over those 2 games -lost 4 out of 5 in mid December, getting shut out twice and being outscored 15-2 in those losses. -4 game losing streak in January -4 game losing streak in march -were shut out 7 times last season So yeah, it happens to just about everyone, hockey is a long season with good and bad streaks. With the fanbase and history here, the worst time you can get that is to start the season, but here we are.

As much as I pick on Cozens, he HAS played better in his own end and honestly, he is getting to the prime scoring areas and getting off shots. He just is such a bad shooter! That is what can make him such a frustrating player. He is very good, almost great at getting to the scoring areas...but once he gets there he doesn't have the talent to convert. I think that is why he keeps getting so many chances, he LOOKS like he is so close to 'getting it done' but he is not a finisher. Believing that is why I think hes a potentially very good/great 3rd line winger at $5m per year...but...not a 2nd line center at $7m per year.

There you go. One unit you have Cozens just park himself in front of the net, the other unit Greenway does it. Take a beating, provide screens, whack away at rebounds.

I like most of what you said, not all, but most, a few notes: -Clifton. I like him a lot. Many of our thoughts on him were colored by a bad first 20 or so games last year. Is he a top pairing guy? Nope, but the last 60% of last year and the couple games this year, I think he is a VERY good 3rd pair guy and can play 2nd pair minutes if needed for a short time. -Tuch. He CAN get you 30+ goals per year, but its best when you don't expect it. View him what he is..a $5.5m guy, 20-25 goal scorer (with potential for more), great forchecker, energy guy, and he is very good at all those things. -Thompson. Is he an Elite #1 guy? It looks like no at this moment. But he is skating, he is shooting, he is getting chances. He's just not finishing. If 10 games into the season he has 3-4 goals, I'll admit its an issue, but I think he is going to come around and be a 'good' #1 center. I'm holding out hope. -Quinn? I have no idea what is up. He's invisible, he's not taking shots. No idea what is up with him. Looks like a different (worse) player than last year. -Cozens. He's bad. The best example of "looks like a hockey player in the uniform" or "looks like a hockey player in practice" but on the ice he's just bad. The BEST you can hope is he doesn't do a boneheaded play in his own zone. And he can't score. Well, he's a 15-20 goal guy, but you don't pay $7m+ for a guy who is bad in his own end and gets you 15-20 goals per year. Move him to the 3rd line already, preferably on wing. -Byram. I think he and Power have been the best pairing for this team so far. To me I see him as on the edge of 'breaking out', but I agree we haven't actually SEEN it yet, but like Thompson, I'm hopeful with the signs, but he has to actually produce in the next few weeks. HOWEVER, even if Bryam is good and does 'break out', Mitts on this team would be so much more valuable at this point. $5.75 million he is getting from Colorado would look great on this roster right now. The only thing that makes sense with Mitts is that they think Mitts hit a ceiling and Helenius or Östlund will be better for the majority of the next 5 years (that doesn't help them right NOW though) If by the 20 game mark Cozens is at or under 4-5 goals or is shooting well under 10%, and one of the young guys in Rochester has even a decent start, I'm calling them up and giving them a taste of C at the NHL level. I'm even at the point of swapping McLeod up to play with Quinn and Peterka/Benson...and moving Cozens between Lafferty and Malenstyn to see what happens. This team is in DESPERATE need for a legit top-2 center.

I just looked at how many shots each player has taken, multiplied that number by their career shooting percentage, and added it up. Regardless, the results are the same...based on the shots, number of shots, quality of shots, who took the shots, they should have a lot more goals.

Statistically, if every Sabres player was shooting at their career percentage, with the shots they have taken, the math says at their career percentage the team SHOULD have 7.25 goals right now. They have 3.

On the PP last year and the first 3 games this year among forwards with 50 minutes or more ice time on the PP, look at shooting percentage on the power play: -Greenway, 25% (limited opportunities, but still have him stand in front of the net!) -Skinner, 15% -Thompson, 14% -Okposo, 13.3% -Mitts 11.7% -Quinn, 11.1% -VO, 11.1% -Peterka, 10% -Tuch, 7.2% -Cozens.........5.5% (and under 10% for his entire career on the PP, even including his 'good' year) 2 goals on 36 shots

I do understand your sentiment, but my issues with Cozens are 2 things that are un-related to who he plays with. 1.) He HAS gotten better in this way, but he has been awful positionally in the Defensive zone. Again, he's better the last 6 months, but he want from 'awful' to 'average'. 2.) Regardless of his teammates, he is getting shots, taking shots, getting shots from prime areas of the ice, and he simply isn't converting. When you are taking the majority of your shots from the center of the ice, top of the circle in....and for all of last year and into this year, you are shooting 8%...that is on him. He's just not good at shooting. Give him better teammates, older guys, and what changes? He gets more chances? He is still shooting at a poor rate when he has those prime chances. You want to throw Cozens on a line with Tuch and Peterka for a couple weeks, at this point have at it....I mean, how much more can it hurt? Give it a try I guess. But I think ultimately there has to be someone better, a better producer, a better shooter than him in the top 6.

I am repeating myself over and over, but Cozens, if he can stop making bone-headed decisions in his own end (which he HAS since Jan 1 2024 with the exception of the first shift of the preseason), would be a good 3rd line center or a great 3rd line winger. Let him be a high motor, fast skating guy that can give you 15-20 goals. But as a 2nd line guy...I can't have him sucking up 200+ shots (hes on the pace for 300+) when he is basically an 8% shooter for his entire career expect ONE season 2 years ago. The problem is they (no longer) have another option for the top 2C role, so they are stuck...unless you want to give McLeod a shot (not a long term answer) or move up one of your top prospects from Rochester.

A top 2 center yeah, that would solve a lot as I have said in my previous posts. Where to find one though... Top 4 D? I'm not there yet. Other than a handful of bad plays (which just about every D-group makes on occasion), I think they have played very well. Power, Dahlin, and Samuelsson all have had one horrendous pass or giveaway, but beyond that I haven't seen anything glaringly bad. Power and Bryam (overall) are playing like a borderline first pair, they have been better than I expected. Dahlin is off, but that doesn't mean he's bad, it means that he just need to elevate more. Jokiharju has played pretty well, I haven't seen much to say "I need him out of there" Samuelsson and Clifton are giving what you need from #5 and #6 guys. And if they start not too, I'm "OK" with Bryson and/or Johnson subbing into those roles. As of this moment, I don't see a top 4 Dman (You aren't getting Hughes or Makar or Josi so by a 'top 4' we are really saying a '3/4' guy)...I don't see getting of of those guys make a significant improvement over what they have. Its the huge, gaping hole they have in production from Center that is the issue these first 3 games.

One other thing about the PP....I haven't been as high on Benson as others, but this year he does look like he is controlling the puck well when it is on his stick. The Sabres did not respond to being pressured on the PP tonight, and not against NJ either. I think Peterka when he comes back, and Benson, they may have to play a bigger roll on the power play. Maybe try to run the PP through them on the walls? They both seem to have quicker hands for both getting off quick shots and/or handling the puck in tight when pressured. Dahlin is off. He isn't himself handlilng the puck back there. Byram looks a little more confident with the puck. If, IF there is something going on with Dahlin, make him your #2 point guy and give a little more ice time on the PP to Byram until Dahlin sorts out whatever it is he is going through.

I will admit, they looked more dangerous when down 1 man than they did on the PP. Seriously tonight.

Ok, well I don't now how to 'fix the PP', I am not good with analyzing NHL play in the offensive zone. Cozens has quickly become my whipping boy but it is well deserved. He has zero touch shooting the puck at all. Maybe start by removing Cozens from the PP. (He has the 2nd most PP ice time on the team). Replace him with who? Greenway? Big guy with reach, just have him stand in front of the net, take a beating, provide a screen, make the opposing players collapse closer to the net because he is standing there, and give the rest of the unit more time to work on the perimeter (Greenway has only 17 seconds of PP time per game, to Cozens nearly 4 minutes per game). If there are any rebounds just have Greenway whack away at the puck in front of the net...he may not have the best hands but he can't do much worse than what they have now. I want the likes of Peterka, Benson, Quinn, Thompson, and Tuch getting the shots on the PP from the wings and the slot, not Cozens. I have more faith that those other guys are likely to come out of a shooting slump.

"Fixing" the PP would obviously help. They'd likely have one win, and who knows if it would have changed any of the other 2 games. So yes, that is a big issue. But even if the PP was working they are still only shooting 3.6% 5 on 5. Yes, 3.6%. Even with a functioning PP, long term thats not enough unless you get a lot better/more productive even strength.

3 steps: -You have money to spend, it might be hard to find a trading partner the first week of the season, but you need to use that money and draft capital/prospects to bring in another Center. -Cozens immediately becomes a fixture on the 3rd line once you bring in someone else. Winger? Center? doesn't matter, he is now a 3rd line player until he proves otherwise. Or Move him as part of a package with a package of picks and other players to get that other center. -Pray Thompson starts converting his chances. Power Play, even strength, he is getting the shots yet everything he is doing looks 5% slower than the last few years. At least for tonight, I was fairly happy with the rest of the team. Its just you can't have your top 2 forwards, you $14m combo, having 1 goal on 26 shots for the season.

I never thought Quinn was going to be an 80 point player, and yes, I still think Cozens would be better on the wing, but not above Quinn. I'd rather have Quinn as a top 2 line winger and have Cozens on the 3rd line (Wing or Center, actually probably a 3rd line winger to be honest). But they are lacking a center. Cozens will likely continue to get chances at 2C due to no other options, but if he keeps performing the way he is, eventually you have to try something different. Unless some magic happens and he shoots 12-14% for the rest of the year, he simply is not a top 6 center. Someone else must be acquired or someone else in the organization need to be tried there.

ALMOST anyone yes. Mitts would be a lot better. Cozens needs to be a 3rd line center on this team and has to do that without his usual defensive positioning slip-ups. If he starts to score there, and does so consistently, then maybe he can move up again, but he's had his chance on a top line and he's not doing it. I can have a little more patience with Tage. He scored well for 2 years, not one (like Cozens) and even last year, he shot nearly 15% in the 2nd half of the year. A little more patience, but even with Tage, he needs to start converting. At least he has ONE this year. Cozens, he had the definition of a career year, just one good shooting year. Other than that, for the rest of his career, he's an 8% shooter, and is 0-14 this year with some of those being from good spots on the ice. There is no way you can have a #1 center or a #2 center that converts that poorly. To me you just can't have it and its pretty clear to me that is what Cozens is.

For me big picture is Pegula. Drill down and its on the players more, less on the coaches and GM. Sure you can say the GM brought in some of the players, but some of the others were here before him. I'm almost at the point of trying anyone at 2nd line center over Cozens. He just can't score. He had one good year and everything else of him we have ever seen at the NHL level shows he is about an 8% shooter. Thats just not good enough. Throw McLeod there for a couple games, bring up a Rochester young guy, just relegate Cozens to the 3rd line at this point. Tage? He needs to convert. He had a COUPLE years shooting at 15%, he needs to be close to that.

Kinda feels like the Bills, can't get an opposing kicker to miss a 50+ yarder to win the game.

Thompson, 12 shots on the season only 1 goal. Cozens, 14 shots on the season, 0 goals. Probably your 2 key forwards, starting the season with 1 goal on 26 shots between them.

That year they averaged slightly more than 1.2 goals per period. This year they have played almost 8 periods. At the 22/23 pace they would have almost 10 goals. This year.....2.

Ok, Sabres had some PP shots, but other than that, both teams are moving a lot slower than in the first period...what is the word...this period is a 'slog'?

He has top 5-6 raw talent on the team..but his hockey sense make him much of a time as much of a liability as an asset. He 'looks good' with the uniform on, the kind of player ever coach sees the skill and says "I can make it work", but usually they can't. Cozens might be the 'anti-Benson'.

Ok, Thompson has the only goal from a forward so far this year...and he is making a couple plays in the offensive zone...but.... His skating and his hands just look 5% slower than we are used to.