
mjd1001
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Everything posted by mjd1001
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The "all around player" part I think was people looking at his raw skill and thinking "he can hit, he'll be a great 2-way center". He hits, but he never got the 2nd part of the '2 way center' thing. Since he got here, in all 5 seasons so far, he is one of the worst '2 way' players on the roster. He may 'look' like what many people want in a 2-way player, but in the back half of the ice and when he doesn't have the puck, he just is pretty bad, and has been all 280+ games of his NHL career.
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Big, kinda slow guys who can't skate but had great hands and would take the beating in front of the net. Andreychuk. Tim Kerr. To an extent Rick Vaive, Owen Nolan and Scott Mellanby. The NHL doesn't have those type of specialists that much anymore...No one wants to make a career of that role (getting crosschecked over and over in front of the net)
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The funny thing about the PP is, it is now 5 games into the season and they are NEGATIVE on the PP. For 5 full games, they have 0 goals scored, 1 goal allowed. I wonder what the record is for the longest into a season a team goes being a net negative on the PP? And its early, but Colorado is 50%, 6 for 12 on the PP and they still haven't won a game.
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STH(full, part or even mini-pack) breaking point?
mjd1001 replied to LabattBlue's topic in The Aud Club
I wish I could answer but none of the choices apply to me. I haven't gone to more than 2-3 home games in about 15 years. Now, right now there is basically Zero chance I would consider even a mini-pack. Just not worth going to any games. -
Just a theory here.. Cozens plays "pond hockey" He chases the puck. He's not good when you tell him to be someplace and to stay there. He wants to play like a bunch of teenagers who have never played together. That is who he is. Hard on the puck, but all-gas-no-brakes, even when the situation may call for brakes. That style doesn't go well in the NHL. When you are playing teams that are well coached, that have players that have practiced and played together for years, they can take advantage of Cozens playing that way. Now think of the World Championships when he plays for Canada. He may be playing against 'lesser' competition (not as many NHL stars on some teams). But even bigger than that, those teams are thrown together. They get a fraction of the time to practice together compared to what he sees in the NHL. The systems the coaches give them i'm sure are a lot 'looser'. You can succeed in the World because it is much, much less discipline hockey, simply because the players don't know each other as well and don't get to practice together. Cozens can thrive in that environment. But when he's playing NHL players who are getting paid top dollar to play a very tight and discipline NHL game....Cozens doesn't play against that too well. I'm sure other NHL teams have advanced scouts watching the Sabres, they see his tendencies, how he is one of the most undiscipline forwards on the team. They take advantage of that and I'm sure they probably have some set plays to work against him. In the Worlds, I don't think that happens, again, not enough time. Now would be a bad time to trade him only if you think he will get better in the future and be worth more later. If he ends up being a "Risto" type player, then the longer you wait to move him, the less you will get in return. I'm not saying 'better than Tage' but I could go with 'different than Tage'. Tage is not a distributor. He is at his best when he is taking the shot. Tuch is a well-rounded winger and that goes well with Tage. A Sniper like Peterka....I agree he might be even better with someone who can feed him the puck. They had someone like that last year (Mitts). But this year 2C is Cozens, not a playmaker for sure. I'm not sure where you get one. But what about his away from the puck liabilities? Those aren't confidence issues, he has done that since he was a rookie and keeps doing them. He has shown amost zero signs of changing, wanting to change. Even if he scored 15-20....to me that is his break even point in terms of being of any value to this team. I just dont' know if he gets back to the 30 goal point. The worrying thing about that theory is....if he does thrive in a 'pond hockey' system, that is not what you want long term. Think about this...as mentioned above, he plays well for Team Canada when there are very few 'systems' in place and you can kinda get away with doing your own thing. 2 years ago Granato said openly in several interviews on WGR that he wanted the guys to learn to score. He said defense could be taught later but he wanted them to play a bit looser and score. That is what the team did and that is what Cozens did...that ONE year. The year after (last year) Granato stated the team needed to 'tighten up' and play better defensively. They actually did that the 2nd half of the year, but Cozens? He didn't adapt. Not only did he not play well defensively, but when the whole team played that 'nhl system', he floundered. Ruff comes in and states they need to be even MORE discipline in their play...and Cozens is even worse in terms of production. Lets go back to his first year under Kreuger. Sure his rookier year and only half a season, but Kreuger was VERY rigid with what he wanted with his system..and Cozens had a total of 4 goals in half a season. So, to summarize: Under Krueger in a system that requires discipline: Bad Cozens (albeit his rookie year) Under Granato when he openly states "go for it boys": Good Cozens In the worlds where there really isn't a system: Good Cozens Under Granato the next year where defensive responsibility is asked for: back to Bad Cozens In 5 games under Ruff who requires system play and accountabilit: So far, AWFUL Cozens. Maybe Cozens will still evolve, but all signs point to a player that when you require any kind of accountability and any kind of system that functions in a competitive NHL...he just doesn't fit well.
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Maybe Cozens will have a breakout game soon. No bad mistakes or turnovers, five or six shots with one or two goals and help the team win. Tonight would be a good night. If that happens, I don't think we sound the Bell that all is clear with him, but if he's going to be on this team long-term, one of these games, he needs to take a step like that. Sometimes the way to go from playing like a $1m per year player to a $7m a year Player.. is taking a step and becoming a $3m for a few games along the way.
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I'd bench Cozens now instead of Quinn, unless Quinn is dealing with an injury. Seriously. He is giving you zero offensively, and he is the worst forward on the team defensively. If I have a guy who is 'tied' for the worst on one side of the ice, and IS the worst in the other aspect...I'll take anyone (even Zucker or Kulich) over him now. If I were Lindy, I'd sit him down in the film room, make him look at his mistakes again positionally, tell him how simple they are to fix, and tell him..."you are getting 2-3 games off from the press box. When you come back, do not do those things again or you will sit again". But again, I'm starting to think more and more that Pegula may be the one who is a big fan of Cozens and that is why hes been given a lot more rope with his game.
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Can it be fixed? Yep. It sure can. How to do it? I have no idea what will work. -I'd start with trying to figure out why Dahlin looks ordinary with the puck (he isn't controlling things back there). -Get Cozens off the ice -Throw a big body in front of the net and just have them take punishment there (Sabres guys on the perimeter are getting pressure and not handling it well, throw a big body in front of the net for the other team to worry about so they have to collapse down on that guy a bit.) Greenway. Or maybe that is where you put Cozens (tell him you better not touch the puck on the PP unless its in the crease and you are banging away at it). -As far as zone entries...No clue how to fix it. Again, what is up with Dahlin?
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For many fans and their short term psyche/sanity, this is a must win. But yeah, a loss makes things harder an harder with each loss, but we aren't at a point where one game will doom the entire season. A game is never a 'must win' unless that precludes any other game after it from being labled a must win. Kinda the same thing that in any season, in any game, you are 'never out of it' if there is a chance you can still 'get back into it'.
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What does everyone 'think' he is. A lot of this is repetitive, but its nice to have one place for discussion about him. -I personally think he is at the age (going to be 24 soon) and experience level (300+ games by mid season) that while he still CAN develop, you are close to getting to the point of what-you-see is what-you-get with him. -So what is that? To me he is a 20 goal scorer. Obviously he has the 'potential' to hit 30, but he also has the potential to be in the teens. -That isn't the issue though. The main issue(s) to me are 2 things: --He is bad defensively. He is horrible positionally. He costs you quality attempts against and he costs you goals against in the way a replacement level player would not. He has been bad defensively, and he continues to be to this date, where he is a net negative on the ice for you without the puck. If he hasn't changed that part of his game by now, I doubt it is in him. --The 2nd thing is, coaches seem to 'see' his raw talent and put him out there over and over, top minutes, PP, PK., etc. Its like they SEE something they can mold into something better (they can't) and they insist they will be the one to do it (they won't.) Because of that, he is taking away ice time from someone who might do better, or even a roster spot (if Cozens wasn't given $7m per year, might Mitts be here instead at $5.5m?) The final thing is maybe its not the coaches, maybe Cozens is "Pegula's boy" and he wants him to keep getting chance after chance. Terry looks at him through the eyes of a fan who likes his 'talent', not through the eyes of a 'hockey person' who looks deeper into his game and sees all the flaws. So, in my eyes, you have a young player, with pedigree (1st round pick), that gets a lot of ice time, that 'looks' like he should be a good player that just isn't that good. Kinda sounds like a forward/center version of Rasmus Ristolainen. What did you do with Risto? Trade him for a first round pick while there still is someone else in the league that may think he has that value. Cozens is at the same level as Risto was, to me. The NHL is a cap league right now. Well, it hasn't been for the Sabres, but if you ever get good, teams spend close to the cap. Its not only how good you are that matters, but its how good are you for what you are getting paid. There is no way he is close to being a $7m player.
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Does anyone think the fight last year Cozens got beat down in is a big deal in terms of his production? -They brought him back after missing just a couple games and said he would be OK. He had the entire offseason to 'heal up' form anything lingering. I would think, any concussion symptoms, would have cleared up by now. But...the numbers tell a story: -In the first month of the season before the fight plus the previous season: 90 games played, 34 goals on 220 shots (15.5% shooting percentage) -Since the game of the fight: 75 games played, 15 goals on 199 shots (7.5% shooting percentage, less than half of the above) He is getting about the same shots per game as before the fight. He is going to the 'tough areas' and getting shots off about from the same places as before. He is just scoring less than 1/2 as much since the fight.
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Dahlin something is up with. He is playing all the minutes, but just looks 'decent' out there. You are paying and expecting borderline elite. Power, no big deal to me. I always view him as a 10 goal, 40-50 point guy who has a balanced game. Other than one terrible pass, I think he has played 'good enough' Thompson, he is showing signs of being the best player on the team, controlling the puck. Again, no assists but he is putting the puck in the net. I'm paying him $7m, not $10m. Lets see the next few games. I don't think i 'need' him to be a 1pt per game player. I can take 60 points if 40 of those are goals. Cozens. Awful. Awful with the puck , Awful without the puck. Yeah, just...whatever. Tuch. Hes fine. UPL, I'd like better numbers and I want him to steal a game for me, but he hasn't played 'awful'. Very few of the goals he allowed I said to myself "thats totally on him" or "I need him to make THAT save". same with Tuch, not upset, but lets see where it goes over the next couple weeks. Samuelsson. He has made 2 really bad plays, but other than that,I like his game. Hes not going to produce much, but he has been solid in his own end...overall...to me. To me this slow start is on Cozens, Dahlin, and Quinn. Those are the 3 guys that are either hurting you, or not helping you, enough.
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GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
I immediately take him off of both the penalty kill and the power play also. Doesn't mean he can never go back, but for now... No point of having him there. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
Cozens.... He's going to be 24, and he's in his what.. 5th NHL season? So yes he could still blossom into something more but we're getting to the point of figuring out who he is. He's not a 20-year-old in his second season anymore. What he is right now for his career is this: He's a guy that will get you 200 shots on goal per year. He will shoot 10% per year (And that's averaging in his career year. For the other 75% of his career. He is consistently below that). He will make dumb plays without the puck and he's not showing many signs of getting better away from the park. Maybe he'll start playing better and putting the puck in the net. Then we can have a different conversation. But as of now, somebody who averages 10% shooting at 200 shots a year is a 20 goal scorer. A 20 goal score who is consistently making mistakes without the puck, and has done that his entire career without really learning, what is that value? What is the value of a guy who who you hope will average 20 goals a year and play below average defensively? -
Advanced analytics are useful in some evaluations, they can add 'color' to the picture. The problem I have with them is when someone tries really really hard to come up with just a couple numbers, or a handful of numbers, to prove a point. -The 'eye test' doesn't always work, but SOMETIMES it is enough. -Simple stats don't always tell the whole story (Goals, assists, shots on goal, plus-minus) but they do tell part of a story and should not just be thrown away. -Advanced stats, well, In my opinion, they are no worse, but not any better than either of the above. If I SEE something with my eyes, can I back it up with some kind of data, (analytics or simple stats), or if I see something else with my eyes, can I disprove it with some kind of data? Even if you can do that, it shouldn't be the end of the story. It shouldn't do anymore than open up a larger discussion about the game, the style of play, the player, etc. I think good teams do that. They use simple stats, analytics, AND coaching/eye tests together. Sometimes it gets annoying when the 'math nerds' just throw out analytics and say "there, we are right, you are wrong, deal with it"
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GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
I posted this earlier, but look at the replay of the goals allowed last night, the one where Pittsburgh broke out of their zone quickly and Benson got back but was a tad late. Look at Cozens there. -1st, he wasn't going to get back no matter what, the goal was scored too quickly, but it is an example of bad plays he makes all the time, and it was an example of being over-aggressive. -In the Pittsburgh Zone, the puck was already picked up by Pittsburgh. Cozens had a decision to make. Hit the guy who made the initial pass (following through on the hit) but potentially taking him out of the play...or make a quick turn and get back into the defensive zone quickly. He chooses to make the hit, thus making him the last guy back into the zone. -If you look at the hit, you might say he was going high, but he did lead with his shoulder, so at first it looks 'ok' but then he follows through with the fore-arm and eventually it ends up looking like the hit turned into a punch with the follow through. In that case, he was being phyiscal, but it was another bad decision. He chose to make a hit (a borderline illegal one) but in doing so make sure there would be no chance he could be back in his own zone in transition. There are times to make hits, but those times are not "all the time". I agree on most of that. UPL didn't play spectacular, but when I watched the replays of the goals, it wasn't like all of them were "That one is on UPL and no one else". You score 5 goals and get his level of play, you should win. He wasn't stellar, but he wasn't bad. Clifford also, overall his is playing on your 3rd pair but I would characterize his overall play as "VERY good 3rd pair" or "pretty decent 2nd pair" level. I think he's fine. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
To me, the problems with Quinn and Cozens are in the different end of the spectrum. Quinn is invisible. I think I've seen two giveaways from him but his problem is mostly the lack of offense. He's not hurting you too much with turnovers and bad decisions. Cozens isn't scoring either. He's working himself into position to get chances, He just can't convert them. But the other problem with Cozens is he's hurting you without the puck in all three zones. he's hurting you with giveaways, and he's hurting you with dumb plays. So yeah, you want both of them to score and neither are doing that. But what's worse? Quinn not even getting chances that at least Cozens is getting? Or Cozens being a liability in all three zones of the ice where Quinn isnt doing that? -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
A lot of us talked about that last year. The problem isn't he thinks too much....the problem is you need your center to think a bit more than a winger, and he doesn't play that game. He just want to go full speed, no thinking in his game at all. He is a straight ahead, all-gas-no-breaks type of player. That is who he seems to be now. He likes to chase the puck. He likes to go to the boards. He likes to hit. He likes to go deep into the corners. All things I want out of my wingers, and things I don't always want out of my Center (I want my center to be more aware positionally, my wingers can skate hard and crash and bang all day long). His style of play for sure suits wing better than center. But, that doesn't solve his shooting problem. He is getting chances in the offensive zone, ...he just can't put them in, and thats been the case for a while now. Changing him to wing might reduce some of his mistakes he makes at center, but I'm not sure it fixes his non-scoring issue...and ultimately that is why you are paying him $7m per year. But yeah, if Lindy said tomorrow that they were moving Cozens to wing, I'd be elated. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
Maybe this wont make this team a Stanley cup winner, but right now, I think McLeod and Krebs as your #2 and #3 centers (in either order) makes this a better team. They won't produce that much offensively, but...well...where are we now? They play 'smarter' hockey. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
As much as I hate his play currently, and I think he is hurting the team, I wouldn't trade him (yet) either. Unless you get a really good offer. But I think his game isn't evolving, its not growing. He plays 'dumb' hockey. Putting him out there over and over, making him your #2 center and never taking that away from him no matter how poorly he plays....that doesn't really give him any incentive to change his play. The only thing I can think of is he is a "Pegula guy". Pegula sees the aggressive play and says "I like that kid". Pegula saw the 30 goal season, and, like a fan, assumes that is the norm, not the exception. Not to take Adams off the hook totally, but I can see Pegula as one that wanted to 'lock him up' to a long term deal so early and encouraged the team to get it done. It might be the reason that he isn't ever taken out of the lineup. I mean, maybe not, but there doesn't seem like any other reason that makes sense. He's played bad defensively for his entire career, he hasn't scored for a year and a half, and now 2 different head coaches keep putting him out there and giving him every opportunity in every single situation. Granato and Ruff aren't common denominators. Adams and Pegula are, and I think it might be a tad bit more Pegula. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
Only 23, but he will be 24 this year. 285 career games played, will be ove 350 by the end of the year. Yeah, it takes some guys years to 'get it', but supposedly he already 'got it' 2 seasons ago. I'm just so frustrated with his play and honestly its not even his lack of production. Its is overall play. Its that he makes dumb mistakes and hurts this team, yet he is used on the PP, PK, all the time. Under no coach has he ever had any accountability, no matter how bad he plays. I said earlier he plays like the 'anti-Crosby' but I think he might be more of an 'anti-Patrice Bergeron'. Bergeron was ALL about positioning. He knew where to be before anyone else on the ice did. He knew when to follow through on a hit, and when to back off to get himself back in the play quicker. He didn't have a great shot but he was very sneaky and got himself into scoring position. He never looked like he was working super hard, just 'hard enough' while thinking a great game. That is pretty much the exact opposite of Cozens. Well, this night was a close game, a back and forth game, and he had a 'kinda benching' toward the end. He played a bit in the 3rd period, but it was only a couple shifts. Maybe that is the first sign of Lindy having enough of his play. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
No idea, I took a quick look and couldn't find that info. I am pretty sure with the exception of possibly Tuch, he scores goals that are just as important/timely as anyone else who is currently on this team. Now maybe that isn't good enough, but hes a $7m dollar player, not a $12m guy. I don't think Tage contributes more to wins than he does to losses...overall. I understand wanting even more from him, but the low hanging fruit on this team to change is not Tage, there are other places to look first. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
He is tied for most overtime goals over the past 3 years on the team (yeah, I know its only 2 but no one else has more than 2) And in terms of Game winning goals (however the NHL defines that now), only Tuch has more over the same time period. Tuch 16, Tage, 14, Olofsson 12, Skinner 10. Cozens, another way he is 'not clutch', in the last 3+ seasons, even including his 30+ goal season, he is credited with a total of 3 game winning goals in 244 games played. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
I agree with you with the 6 on 5. You don't want a free-for-all, but with less space on the ice you can be a bit more aggressive. As far as the regular, 5 on 4 penalty Kill, the Sabres kill penalties best when they do play passive. From watching the replays of just about every shorthanded goal they have allowed over the past 2 seasons, I would say the majority of them happen when they start chasing and get out of position. -
GDT: Sabres @ Penguins October, 16 2024 @ 7:00PM on TNT
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
Lindy on the radio this morning (maybe it was yesterday). Said he sees problems with the Powerplay. He said they have a lot to work on and sounded like the coaching staff knows what the issue is, just have to get something through the players heads (my words, not his.) I'd like to know exactly what they THINK the problem is.