mjd1001

That one I don't know...hopefully someone else will be able to answer that. Most of the analytics I even look at are more about positioning, shots, locations, etc.

I'll admit I do not like analytics all that much. There is value to it, but to me it just takes a truth you already know (or should know) and breaks it down to smaller parts. Personally, i'm good with basic stats like Plus-minus, goals, assists, add to that the eye test and use a little common sense and you are 75% of the way there. The analytics, I DO like the goals for and goals against. To me its kinda like taking the expected goals for and against that a lot of people like, but not disregarding shooting percentage. I'll say something that I have said before and I KNOW that poeple will disagree with me. It has to be coming from above, Adams or Pegula (I personally think more Pegula, but it could be either) that is overriding the analytics. Its something like this...Analytics dept: "Look Cozens is causing more harm than good. His goals against are bad. In every aspect we can measure his game, the team is better with him off the ice than with him on"....then....Pegula and/or Adams: "Great, I dont' care thoughI like Cozens so keep on playing him, I make the decisions/pay the bills". There are two things that, in the limited view of the deeper analytics I have seen for sure: Almost EVERYONE has better numbers when Dahlin is on the ice with them....and almost EVERYONE has worse numbers when Cozens is on the ice with them.

Oh, I have been pleasantly surprised with Krebs play this year. He's not a top 6 guy, but I honestly think all year long he has performed better then Cozens when taking everything into consideration. Last year, there were 2 players I thought were awful and wanted gone. Krebs and Cozens. I probably actually complained about Krebs more than Cozens last year. I thought both of them brought little positive to the team, and when they were on the ice the negatives made the team worse. I did not want Krebs re-signed, and if he was brought back I said as long as it's only for 1 year at the minimum contract AND he would likely spend time in Rochester. I thought I saw enough of Krebs and didn't see any signs of him getting better. Well, I was wrong on him. I agree he's not going to be a guy that gets you 60 points and anchors your 2nd line for years to come. But I think he has found a role on this team and has more good games than bad ones. And as far as the 99 problems...well, yeah, they aren't perfect. But I think there are only 3-4 problems keeping this team out of the playoffs this year: 1.) Cozens and Quinn's play (the single biggest problem), 2.)UPL having a bad start to the year, and 3.) the lack of a well-balanced veteran D-man for 2nd pair minutes. As of this moment, if those above 3 things did not exist this year (or were 'fixed'), I think the play of the rest of the team is good enough to have them in a playoff spot right now, and with a somewhat weaker division, maybe even some fans eyeing more than just a 'wildcard' spot.

I THINK they have $58m+ already committed for next year. But that is with 11 or 12 guys not signed on the current roster, so they would need to fill those positions. Zucker, Greenway, McLeod, Peterka, Quinn, Kozak (if they are going to bring him back), Byrum, Jokiharju, Gilbert, Bryson. If they bring back all those forwards and just Byrum on D, that may cost them $30m+ right there. And then you would still need to fill 3 more defensive spots and a goalie (do you re-sign Reimer again or is it Levi?)

I showed Cozens for 2 reasons: He is accepted by some as, without Tage, the defacto 'best' center on the team (or should be based on his salary and the "A") 2nd, I could swear watching the game that all of Krebs ice time was not at center. He was out there for a few shifts (at least) with McLeod and Krebs to me was obviously playing wing based on both of their positioning on the ice.

I know the stats have been mentioned before, but they are quite remarkable. -Sabres have scored 60 goals in the first period...tops in the entire league. -They are a +21 in goal differential in the 1st, tied for best in the league. -They have scored the first goal of the game 34 times, again best in the league. In the 3rd period it gets a LOT worse -50 goals scored, 5th worst in the league -Negative 19 in goal differential, 3rd worst in the league If the games only lasted 20 minutes, this team would be in the running for the Presidents trophy right now.

That goals for vs goals allowed in there is telling and disappointing. Whenever neither of them are on the ice the team is a plus 15 in goal differential. When either of them or both of them, are on the ice they are a negative 10. Basically, the team without Cozens and Quinn is actually pretty good. The moment either of them hit the ice they start 'losing'. Defensively it is the most apparent. If you break down the stats per minute...the team is allowing 25% more goals per minute 5 on 5 and scoring 20% less 5 on 5 with either of them on the ice vs when anyone else is out there. And this isn't a small sample size, this is for the entire year. Last year I think the numbers weren't as bad as this year, but still similar. When either of those 2 were on the ice the team had close to an even goal differential...when both were off the ice they were a positive 15.

I thought Krebs played a pretty good game through the first half of the game, but then his line was pretty bad in the 2nd half. If pushed I'd probably have to agree with you that Cozens looked slightly better with those 2 guys. But I don't want to have to put Cozens with probably your two more responsible/experienced wingers for him to just look decent for one game.

If you can't force him to drop the gloves, then you do it anyway and let him turtle. If that is too harsh, then you follow through on the checks, even if that means its borderline illegal. You might have to take an extra penalty but you hit, 'abuse' their stars one way or the other.

I think Cozens CAN work at wing. I'd be very happy to see them try it. The issue is, they don't want to do it. Its been through 2 different coaches, several different assistants, they just keep putting him out there at center on this roster. Is the order coming from above? Adams? Pegula? I don't know My guess is that Cozens, in the long run, is about a 10% shooter. He might have a year slightly above or slightly below that, but hes going to average close to 10%. He also shows an ability to go to slot to get shots off, to the tune of about 200 shots per year. 10% of 200 shots gives you 20 goals. From what I see of his game, 2 things would turn Cozens from a negative player that hurts this team into, as you said, possibly a positive one. Move him to wing (2nd or 3rd line, not first). Get rid of his D-zone and neutral zone responsibilities in the center of the ice, and let him go deep into the corners or bang on the walls/chase pucks in the offensive zone. That is what he wants to do. He doesn't want to hang around the slot and play 'zone' defense in the D-zone so he just doesn't do it. Put him at a position where he doesn't have to. 2nd, take him off the Power play. I don't care if you don't think you have a more skilled option, all the stats, the regular stats, the advance stats, they all point to him not only being a non-factor producing on the powerplay, the the powerplay functions BETTER and is more productive when he isn't out there. If the Sabres do move him and the acquiring team puts him at wing, I think he will succeed there. I'd like to see it done here, but they just won't do it. As you know, I have said that I think the Sabres with Thompson/Kulich, Krebs, McLeod at center are not ideal for a contending team, but that makes them better than having Cozens out there at Center.

Who is the #1 center on this team at the moment? Tonight's game: Cozens 15:15 ice time Kulich 17:31 ice time McLeod: 22:19 ice time It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues on Saturday. I still rank Cozens ahead of Quinn. (they were supposed to be part of a dangerous 2nd line, right?) Biggest issues/reasons why this team is out of the playoffs? Cozens #1, Quinn #2. Everything/everyone else (Power included), way down the list.

for $7 a year, he is supposed to be, and I still want him to reach that standard (despite my complaining). And he is treated like one with all the PP time and overall ice time he usually gets. As far as the game so far... its only through 2 periods...but so far, this is how you SHOULD look when you are a bit shorthanded with injuries, but the other team is WAY worse.

Obviously Tuch, but I think Krebs, Mcleod and Zucker having really good games up front. I won't say Gilbert is carrying the blue line, but it might be his best all around game of the year so far through 2.

With Tage out, you want one of your other 'stars' to step up and score. Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, or Quinn. Tonight is Tuch's night.

McLeod for all intents and purposes playing the role of 1C tonight 14 minutes of ice time with almost 2 minutes left in the 2nd. Cozens only 9:20. Kulich 10:55.

I haven't followed him every shift but decent. Hasn't made any great plays that I have seen but no glaring mistakes.

Benson now tied for 14th in the entire LEAGUE in penalties drawn. And doing it with less ice time than about 10 of the guys ahead of him.

Another issue with Cozens game. He has taken 7 more penalties than he has drawn...worst among forwards. Benson has taken more penalties (17 to Cozens's 14) but Benson has drawn a LOT more than Cozens (19 to 7) FYI, Greenway, Malenstyn, and Krebs are the best on the team in terms of drawing penalties to put the team on the PP without taking many to put them SH.

Ice time first period: McLeod leading, 11 shifts (most among forwards) and 8:06 minutes (most among forwards) Benson only 4:35 (6 shifts), Quinn 4:11, Malenstyn 4:01 Among D-men, Dahlin and Byrum up top 8:37 and 7:10. Power suprising quite a bit behind them at only 5:42

That is true. Even strength he is a +11 playing with Dahlin, a -5 playing with everyone else combined. His Corsi, Fenwich, expected goals for and against...many of those advanced stats all better with Dahlin than without, some by a wide margin.

Would he take a bridge deal, if so at what cost? -Best plus-minus among all D-men on the team (and a positive player on a negative team) -Top 5 pick in his draft, only 23 years old -Cup winner, playoff experience -getting 1st pair minutes, 2nd on the entire team in ice time -his advanced stats skating metrics off the charts (almost) for a D-man (83rd percentile among all players in top speed, 90th in speed burts...everyting near the top of the league in those metrics) -salary cap going WAY up the next few years.

Might be one of the more interesting stories of the offseason...what does he get paid here, and what term length.

I'm not saying the never have, I'm saying its been a long, long time.

Yep, I'm sure New Jersey really cares about this.

LOTS of empty seats from the looks of it on TV.