
mjd1001
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Everything posted by mjd1001
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Lindy really likes him some Bowen Byram. No Dahlin? Lets give Bryam almost 25.5 minutes in regulation already..with a full OT he might be close to 27 or 28. And as far as accountability for Cozens and Thompson? Maybe its because there are no options, but other than Tuch, they are right there at 2nd and 3rd in ice time for forwards so far.
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If they end up blowing a 2 goal lead against Detroit and do not come away with 2 points tonight, and lose their 7th in a row...they fall to 15th out of 16th in the conference. Tomorrow morning, for my own sanity as a fan, I might make my transition to thinking this is an actual "Season" and turning mentally to....they are done. Lets look forward to roster moves for next year and just view each game as a single night event. I'm not sure I'll be 100% there, but if they lose tonight, the 'season' may be written off for me. Which will make it earlier than I have done that in years.`
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Ok, I am not one that complains about the refs much at all. My normal response to people complaining about the Refs is....stop your complaining, everyone deals with it. With that said, Seider probably should be serving a major, or not out of the game for that hit. And a few other penalties were legit penalties against detroit that weren't called in the last few minutes.
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I bought the old 'slug logo' jersey years ago when it was discontinued for something absurd like $9 (no name on it). I wear it every once in a while and I kinda feel like its the most appropriate jersey to represent them right now.
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Trading Cozen is not a reset. Trading cozens might make the team better. You can trade him, make the current team better and go on. Why you are saying trading one guy, who has underperformed for 1.5 years, and has been a net negative to your team this year....how does that mean its a reset? To me its almost the opposite. You would be purging someone to create a spot for hopefully someone better to step into. I'm not quite sure what Cozens as a player alone would be worth, but unless he really catches fire (and then you would likely not trade him, but that hasn't happened) I question how much of a return Adams or ANY GM would get for him with that long term, $7m contract. I think it might be a lot less than many think it would be.
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He did a good job in Tampa, I won't say he didn't, but it was set up pretty well for him when he got there. He already had 2 #1 overall picks on the roster in Stamkos and Hedman. He had 5 first round picks in the next 4 years coming, including 2 top 10 overall. He had Veteran stars on the roster to bring the young guys along (St. Louis, Lacavalier). And most importantly, he had 2 BIG things that Detroit doesn't......Low taxes and Palm trees.
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I will say that some people disagree with what I am going to say...but many of us disagree with the above bolded. Nobody accuses Terry of meddling with the Bills because the Bills are a lot more complicated orgnization. Football is a more complicated game. There are many more players, coaches, layers of coaches and management. It takes a scouting department many TIMES the size in the NFL as it does in the NHL to scout and evaluate every draft pick. Terry has said in interviews over the years that he is amazed by how complicated the game is in the NFL, how much the coaches know, how much detail goes into a one week game plan (he did an interview on WGR about a decade ago saying that). However in hockey, he thinks he knows more. He clearly, on sabres posted videos, gives his inputs on draft prospects. It is clear that HE was the one who pushed for Erhoff and Leino to be signed, not anyone in the hockey department. Its easy to say Adams should set boundries in the NHL because Beane does it to Pegula in the NFL, but that is not the reality of how Pegula operates. We have years of seeing it....quotes from Terry himself...articles from beat guys that have been posted and referenced in other threads on the topic (The trial of Terry Pegula thread on here from a few years ago brings a lot of the 'proof')...He just pushes for more input himself on the hockey side of things than he does on the football side of things.
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The 'rebuild' this time went off the rails when they decided over the last few years to not spend money on some veterans to play with the younger guys. I don't mean token 'vets' like E. Johnson who are at the end of their career and not effective anymore and you can get on a low-to-no risk, low dollar one year deal. I'm talking GOOD veterans. Overpay if you must, you had the cap room. Bring in some guys on 1-3 year deals who can still contribute and Play on a line with Cozens and Quinn, can skate and be effective as a partner for Dahlin and/or Power. But NOPE. Pegula didn't want to pay the money and kept the team WAY under the cap until the wins came first and the seats were filled first. (you know that "pegula family lifestyle" needed every dollar). That decision may have been the thing that prevented the wins from coming and the seats being filled in the first place. Sometime when you are a very young team...you have to find a guy who is good enough that another team will pay $10m over 2 years and give him $18m over 3 years. 2 offseasons ago the rumor was the Sabres were starting to get calls from agents thinking the Sabres were up and coming. They could have loaded up on guys there, 2 and 3 years deals at an inflated price, but still under the cap....brought along the current team better and had those 'vets' contracts up in time to resign your key guys. You just might have made the playoffs one of the last 2 years AND developed the younger guys a bit better at the same time. But nope! They didn't do it and now that time has passed. -Now think of this as far as the younger guys wanting to be here or not. Look at Mitts. By all accounts he liked his teammates. He liked Buffalo. He wanted to stay here. He was playing well at a position of NEED on this team. But the Sabres traded him apparently because they didn't want to pay him. Now, if you are another player on the team what do you see? You see a teammate who was one of the more important players, young, I think leading the team in points. A guy who was happy here. He ended up signing for $5.75million in Colorado. A Buffalo Sabre sees a player traded because they team didn't want to pay him and apparently another team only paid him $5.75? For current guys on the Sabres roster, that has to be utterly demoralizing. Whether it was Adams decision. Or Pegula's decision. Or Adams working under Pegula's monetary guidelines. It can't give you much hope of what your future can and will be here if you stay long term.
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Exactly. Its not just me, but I would say I probably have posted 10 or more game vizualization replays or actual replays and images where he either quits on plays...or is too tired that he can't get back..(which is still his fault for being on the ice too long). Last year Krebs was the king of either being too slow to get back....or just quitting/not putting the effort into backchecking. Krebs has gotten better this way...not Cozens....I have seen WAY to many times where Cozens is just gassed or does quit. Mind you, he won't quit in the offensive zone...he'll charge into the corner to chase a puck in the offensize zone without a problem. But he does not do that on the backcheck as often as many think.... As Jorcus said he isn't always the only one. Even Benson does it occasionally. Krebs still has his moments..Thompson, Tuch...all of them do. But I think Cozens does it a bit more than his reputation leads on. I'm not down on Benson, but I think some of his play lately is being excused by his 'reputation' as a hard worker who usually does the right thing. He's another one to keep an eye on, hopefully his play recently isn't a case of him picking up bad habits he didn't have before. Personally, I would like any of the season ticket holders on this forum, or anybody who goes in person to games frequently, to chime in. I know I have seen Cozens quit on plays but the only time I get to see replays of that is when there is a goal allowed.....Id be interested in some good feedback of anyone who might follow him in person at a game, shift to shift, play to play, in ways we can't see on Television.
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In his most recent 32 Thoughts: The Podcast episode, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman reported that he believes Buffalo Sabres forward Dylan Cozens has generated trade interest around the NHL. "If I'm Adams and the Sabres, I'm worried if we trade him, does he become the next guy?" (to have success elsewhere) full article here: https://sports.yahoo.com/report-sabres-star-generated-trade-180614584.html
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Lines at practice today 12/08/24---if anyone cares
mjd1001 replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
3rd line WINGER at best. Back to one of the few things I'm decent at on this board, bashing Cozen's play. But seriously, when you look at his play, for the past year and a half, is he really even a GOOD 3rd liner? I think he gets slotted on the 2nd line because he has the 'raw' talent (skating speed, agility, size) and pedigree (top 10 pick). The kind of 'talent' a coach looks at and may think "I'll be the one to get him out of it" But in reality...for his career (Even INCLUDING his career year), he is a 19 goal per 82 game guy. A minus player and a deeper minus guy than the average of the other forward on your team. Under 50% at faceoffs. Ineffective on the PP (currently leads Sabres forwards in PP time this year, split time last year on the first and 2nd PP unit, and has a total of 3 PP goals total between this year and all of last year). He is a 10% shooter (8.5% over the last 2 years and 8.3% every other year if you exclude his 'career year'.) He hits less than he gets credit for by many...3.37 hits per 60 for his career, which is average-to-slightly-below-average among forwards on the team. He's the antithesis of clutch....Never had more than 1 game winning goal in an entire season across his whole career, and it seems like he is much, much more likely to take a dumb penalty late in a close game than make a play to win it. We know the numbers. All of that above paragraph would lead me to think he is possibly a 3rd line winger. Not 1st line, not 2nd line, not even a 3rd line center. But to be GOOD as a 3rd line winger with those numbers, you have to be at least decent without the puck. I think there are very few people left who believe he is actually good defensively. Some of us, including myself, think he is BAD. Like worst-player-on-the-team-bad positionally. To me, he has to change, he has to improve immediately. His offensive production justifies nothing higher than a 3rd line winger at the moment, and when you includes his defensive lapses and tendency to wander and 'do his own thing' out there (I like to think of his play without the puck as the forward version of Ristolainen), I think he's a slight negative even as a 3rd liner. Oh, and those offensive production numbers? IF they played him 3rd line minutes and less on the PP, with less ice time his production would likely be even a bit lower than it is. Cozens may have more of that 'raw talent', but in terms of actually being a hockey player, the Sabres are a better team day in and day out with another guy the level Zucker, or Mcleod, instead of Cozens on the ice. He has a good game on occasion. I'm not rooting against him. I want him to be a 20-25 goal per year guy and be a factor on the PP and to think 'defense first' in close games. When its a tie game with 5 minutes left, I want him to make the move on the D-man and put the puck over the goalies shoulder for the game winner. But he just doesn't do it. Like, 4 out of 5 games he does none of that. He's has to start soon, 'young and inexerienced' as a reason is running out for him. That is become less of a 'reason' and more of an 'excuse' at this point. -
This is what I think Terry doesn't 'get': Hes the owner, he has to sign off on new contracts. He wants to know what is going on with his team. That is understandable. But an owner being present "TOO MUCH" can be an issue. When you are always around. In draft meetings, watching practice with the GM frequently, stuff like that.....like it or not it can make some people in the hockey department a bit on edge. Sure you should say they shouldn't be like that, but think of many of our own jobs. We know the Boss/owner is in charge, but if he was walking around the office, or sitting in the corner of the cafe watching whenever you had a casual sales meeting, its just not the best work environment.
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I remember 2, maybe even 3 years ago listening to the morning show and having the 'insider experts' on 590 out of Toronto talking about hockey. The talk then about the Eastern Conference was "Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, which one will take the step up and be a legit contender in the east first? Maybe it will be Montreal, but they are probably 1-2 years behind the others." I remember them talking that Detroit may have the least potential high end talent among the 4, but they have Yzerman heading things up and they looked to be spending money, so their rise up the Eastern Conference standings was the most imminent. Then the next year, it was the same thing they talked about on occasion. Buffalo shows promise it will be them. Then this year, it was the same thing about those 3 or4 teams. Too much talent. Too many high draft picks. Ottawa looks good this year finally with a goalie and looking healthier than before. Yet, here were are, another season, the absolute bottom of the Eastern conference...Guess the bottom 4 teams? Obvioulsy, Ottawa, Buffalo, Detroit, and Montreal. All 4 teams negative in goal differential. All 4 in the bottom 7 in goals scored despite those high draft picks.
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Rangers have statistically dropped behind the Bruins (now in 7th) and NY is in 8th and the final playoff spot right now at a point percentage currently of .558. As the Sabres stand, the get more than .558, to take away what is currently the 8th playoff spot in the east, Buffalo needs to win 6 in a row. 6 wins in a row from here would put them at .560. Providing the Bruins and/or Rangers do not gain any more ground and play above that level, 6 wins in a row will put the team back in the last playoff spot Saturday Morning, Dec 21 before a game with the Bruins. Which if they lose to and don't win 7 in a row could put them back out of the playoff spot. So, just win (preferably in regulation), over Detroit tonight. Then the Rangers. Then Washington. Then Toronto. Then Montreal (3rd game in 4 days). Then Toronto again. Then probably Boston (to keep them behind you). Do something as simple as that and yes, this team could be clinging to the last playoff spot as we approach the end of December. They haven't dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of, have they?
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Lines at practice today 12/08/24---if anyone cares
mjd1001 replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
Cozens last year before the fight: 10gp, 3g, 4a, -1 (82 game pace of 24.6 goals, 33 assists, 57.4 points -8.2) Last year from the fight game on: 69gp, 15g, 25a -3 (82 game pace of 18 goals, 30 assists, 47.5 points -3.5) Statistically not a huge difference. As far as his play away from the puck, I remember he was pretty bad and made mistakes early in the year before the fight, and he just kept on making the same dumb mistakes after the fight. For me personally, that fight I can use as a turning point as a kind of 'mental crutch'. Meaning, he came off of a 31 goal year, so the 3 goals in 10 games was only 'slightly' off that pace and not signficant enough for me to think he was anything other than a 30 goal scorer. Did the fight actually impact his play? Or has his play since the beginning of last year actually been who he is, before and after the fight, as he came off of a one-time career year? Do we simply use the fight as a MacGuffin for the narrative that it was a turning point? His stats weren't that much different after the fight as they were before...and the team as a whole statistically played almost the same, and actually slightly better after he came back from the fight with him in the lineup....with him playing more minutes.....than the team played before he got in the fight with him playing less minutes per game. Even hitting. A little obscure of a stat but before the fight, he was averaging 1.20 hits per game. After the fight game 1.35 hits per game. So hardly any difference of note. But he didn't shy away from the physical game, he had slightly, SLIGHTLY more hits per game after he got in the fight than before it. Had the fight not happened and he continued to score at that lower pace, by the end of the year I would have thought....last year was a mirage I guess. The fight just happens to be conveniently at a time (with the subsequent games missed after) to allow us, and myself included, to put significance to it meaning something. When in reality, the whole season last year, before and after the fight, may have been him just reverting to the norm after a career year. -
One could say that just as firing staff during Covid was to save money, that mandate might have continued to exist for the next couple years under the new GM, whether it was Adams or anyone else, to not spend anywhere close to the cap, make moves that would save the team money. A lot of theory here, but its pretty likely that if the team wanted to save money and Terry didn't want to spend, that could be part of the reason Adams couldn't (or was directed to) 'find a reason' to trade a disgruntled Eichel and a longer term contract extension, at a higher dollar wasn't offered to Reinhart. Adams simply was the guy that was operating under those conditions. Had it been a different GM, the same conditions, the same edicts from above, might have existed. They certainly didn't go after any 'bigger name' coaches that they would have to offer more money to after they made a change. No long term high priced guys were brought in. Guys due for raises were often moved out. Even the Taylor Hall deal was short term and he was moved out pretty quick.
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Lines at practice today 12/08/24---if anyone cares
mjd1001 replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
Ok, it is not a cup winning looking lineup that is for sure. Krebs is not a great player, but I'm willing to see what he does for one game up there (knowing Lindy it might be a few shifts before he sees something he doesn't like though). Krebs was my whipping boy on this forum for the last 1.5 years, maybe even as much as Cozens. But I have liked glimpses of his game this year. Again, does he deserve first line time? No, but why not at this point? McLeod on the '2nd' line, hopefully that means 2nd line minutes (1-2 more minutes per game than he averages) Greenway back. I never loved his game, but wow, could this team use him. Hope he plays. Cozens on wing, and on what looks to be a 3rd line. Best thing I have seen on this. Now keep him off of special teams also. Kozak on the 4th line. Well he scored 1, maybe 2 goals in 2 games so far D-unit. I want to see Johnson play again, teaming him with Byram I hope will be good. Power-Joki? with that combo you could get a great game that gives you the win OR they could single handedly be the reason you lose. Bryson-Clifton. I think they are a fine 3rd pair. Not great, but I do not think they hurt you anymore than most 3rd pairs hurt. But if Samuelsson and Gilbert play instead, so be it, don't care too much. If they play with these lines, I hope Lindy stick with them for the whole game. Some changes will at least be SOMETHING to look at and talk about. -
Lines at practice today 12/08/24---if anyone cares
mjd1001 replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
The thing about those 2 vs Cozens.... I have heard from a lot of people who dive deeper into stats that at a team level, and that a player level, Shooting percentage is something to look for that can 'revert to the mean'. Meaning if an entire team, or a player, has a career year...but the shots they take, the location of the shots, if many of the metrics are similar to other years but their SHOOTING percentage is higher, it may be a sign it isn't sustainable. Suzuki and Stutzle had more than one year of production/10%+ shooting percentage before signing. Cozens had 49 games and earned his deal off of that. Cozens signed his huge contract about half way through the 2022-23 season when he was shooting 14.5% over 49 good games over 1/2 a season and was a plus +1 over that time. He didn't get that deal over him scoring 13 goals in full season the year before where he was a -19. He didn't get it off his rookie year where he scored 4 goals in half a season. Basically, before those 49 games that he earned that contract on, his career was 17 goals and 34 assists over 120 games and a MINUS -34. (an 82 game pace of 11.5 goals, 23 assists, and -23) Again, so his contract was mostly based on production over those 49 games. So, what is his entire CAREER other than those 49 games? Before and after he signed the new deal? a 9.3% shooting percentage over 258 games, minus -48, and an 82 game pace of about 16.5 goals per 82. The Sabres made him the 2nd highest paid player on the team (at the time) and the 2nd highest paid forward overall (just a fraction behind Tage who scores at more than double the pace Cozens does and this year is scoring at almost triple the pace Cozens is), based on under 4 months and 49 games of play. There are some people that aren't fans of Tage, but him and Cozens got about the same deal, at about the same time. But even if you take out Cozens rookie year where he only scored 4 goals, From 2021-22 to present, for the same money, Thompson has 128 goals to Cozens 68. And as much as some people don't like Tage's defense, Cozens has made a LOT more bad plays costing obvious goals against that probably any player on the team. Ok, there is my bi-monthly Cozens rant.