mjd1001

I think this is the best case scenario for Cozens at this point...... -He goes in and out of shooting slumps that last a real long time. He's not a sniper, he's not going to build on that 31 goal season and give you a couple 40 goal seasons in the future (never say never but....just ABOUT never). But look at this year so far. I'm pretty sure he shot ZERO percent in October, but through November AND December he is shooting 13.9%. Last year he had entire MONTHS where his shooting percentage was 18.8%, 19.0, and 15.8. He also had entire months where he shot 3.3, 4.3, and 6.7. He is a streaky shooter. ALL shooters are streaky but not like him. We have to realize he is basically a 9-10% shooter (3rd line quality scorer) with the ability to get a LOT hotter than that and a LOT colder than that. Accepting that takes care of the offensive side of the equation. As fans we don't like this but we just have to accept one month he will get 6 goals, but then follow it up with 1 goal in 15 games. Oh, and up this page I asked if anyone could tell me why he is on the PP and no one responded directly. So, just get him off the Powerplay. He is hideous, terrible on it. He probably single handedly drops the Sabres ranking down on the PP a few points. He is probably the worst guy in the league that gets regular PP time. NO SPECIAL TEAMS FOR COZENS. -Now the other half of his game. If I (we) accept the above about his scoring, the HOPE is that somewhere along the way a coach (maybe Lindy) gets him to see the game differently. He has to change how he has played the game without the puck compared to how he has done it his entire life. Its almost like he was the best kid on the pond out back when he was 6-7 years old and got away with doing whatever he wanted without the puck, but where most guys evolve when they get to juniors..or pro....he has just refused to. He still plays pond hockey, chasing the puck with no regard for taking himself out of the play and no regard for where his linemates are and any respect or awareness of the other team beyond what is directly in his line of sight. He needs to see the game differently, He has to ADMIT he plays the way he does without the puck and he has to WANT to change that. It hasn't happened....yet. A coach can only change a player if a player admits he has faults in his game, AND he wans to put the effort into changing it. So best case scenario: He is a 16-22 goal scorer. He MIGHT have another 30 goal year, just like he MIGHT have a 10 goal year. But defensively, if he commits to changing his game, he might become 'decent'....not good...but decent enough that he can be valuable 3rd line winger. That is still in the realm of possibility.

My daily picking on Dylan Cozens.....I am going to pose a question about Cozens on the Powerplay. Why does he keep getting used on the Powerplay at all, like ever? -He leads the team in Powerplay ice time this year, and he has been a fixture on the 1st powerplay unit for a few years now, Only Tuch and Thompson have more PP time among forwards for the last 3 seasons, but even then he's right up there with him. -Yet he has a total of 3 powerplay goals over the last 2 seasons. He has taken part in over 250 powerplays in the past 2 seasons with only 3 goals scored. -If you look at his entire career, even including his 31 goal year, he has 11 total powerplay goals over those 4+ (partially through his 5th) season now. There are a bunch of guys who have over 20 just in the past 1 1/3 season. Reinhart had 27 PP goals last year alone, yet Cozens averaged 2.9 goals per 82 games on the PP. Reinhart had 27! 42 different guys last year had double digits or more. Yet Cozens averages 2.9 per 82....2.5 per 'season' Ok, so lets break down his production on the PP, not just this year and last, but lets include that 31 goal year to make the numbers look as much in his favor as possible. Over that time (from the start of his 31 goal season until now) on the PP, 7 forwards have over 250 minutes of PP time: -In terms of goals per 60, Cozens is last at 0.99. Tage, for example, has 3.52, he scores at more than 3.5 times the rate of Cozens, but everyone else is higher too. -Maybe he's a set up guy? Nope. Well he moves slightly up the list, he's now 5th out of 7th on the team in PP points, slightly edging Olofsson and Peterka but behind everyone else and WAY behind what most forwards around the league produce. -Or maybe He's giving up shot attempts to other players and if he did take shots he'd do better? No, not really. This year he leads the team in PP shots (shooting only 4.7% on the PP). Over the last 3 years only Tage and Skinner have taken more shots. Cozens takes shots away from guys who convert at a much higher rate. He somehow manages to shoot even worse on the PP than he does even strength. Of the shots he takes for his career, he is shooting 8.7% on the PP. By FAR the lowest among the guys who get time. Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, Mitts, Olofsson...all 14%-20%. Cozens dead least at 8.7%. All of the above is over the course of years. Its not a small sample size. I didn't 'cherry pick' just this year where he is struggling. This is who he is. Finally, maybe it is some intangible he brings to the PP. He doesn't shoot well, he doesn't get many assists, he doesn't score for some reason, but him just being on the ice opens things up for other players? The coaches put him out there because, well, the PP just 'clicks' better when he is on it whether he gets on the stat sheet? Nope, that one is a RESOUNDING no. Its a small sample size, but I looked at what happened last year when he missed those games because of the fight. How the PP did when he wasn't playing and not on the PP, vs what it was like before and after he got back and was put back on it. -The FOUR games BEFORE he got hurt and missed time, when he was on the PP, the Sabres were 0 for 9 on the PP over those 4 games. -Cozens then missed the next 2 games, the Sabres scored on the PP in both games without him (2 for 7, 28.6%) -Cozens returned to the PP then, and over the next 4 games with him on the PP, the team went 0 for 10. So, Why on the Powerplay at all?

I have had 2 orders that just went 'missing' from Amazon in the past month. The most recent, tracking showed it showed up last Wed at the fulfillment center. It was scheduled to be delivered Thursday. A week later? No delivery. When I check out the reason why, and I even called them, they said it was due to 'inclement weather' in the area. Funny, not only do I live in NORTHERN Niagara county were its been sunny most of the last week and there is no snow on the ground, but my wife, who has a different amazon account, had an order that was tracked through the same fullfillment center, that arrived the day after mine, and her order showed up this past monday. If you lost my item, I get it, if it got damaged in the facility, fine, it happens, Just don't lie to me about it.

Exactly. Looking back at the last 5-10 years, I think the #1 thing that if you changed would make this team better is spending more/closer to the cap. Not a specific draft pick or drafting overall. No even who the coach is. But if every year that you had cap space you slightly overpayed for just one extra GOOD veteran, and you overpayed a bit to bring in someone better than Erik Johnson. Just 2, maybe 3 extra GOOD vets to play with the young guys, to be good enough to win one or two extra games a year, and this entire situation would be a lot better. And yes, you weren't good and this is Buffalo, so you might have to overpay. But if you are/were $10m under the cap, give a guy who someone else offers 2 years at $10m, give that guy 3 years at $18-$20m to come here. Maybe you do that via making a trade at the deadline, weaponize your cap space to bring in a player and then get him to stay here with that 'overpay'. They could have. They didn't. Terry didn't want to spend any extra money until the wins and fans came back first.

Unless you promote a new GM from within. But the problem with promoting from within.... you are getting a 'first time GM' and a guy who was likely a large part of the very decision making that got the team to where it is now.

I don't think its much bad drafting at all in recent years. The question is, what where your options? what is your opportunity cost for taking who you did? To me its who did you pick vs who was available, but reasonably available. Meaning, don't say they drafted a bust at 14, but a superstar was picked at 23, because if you, AND 9 other teams passed on that guy its more that guy was a surprise rather than a bad pick. Its like look at every draft, and who are the 2-3 guys AFTER the guy you took and have they done a lot better? Of if you took a D-men and the next 3 picks were forwards, who was the next D-man after you picked and how did he do? So if you go back 10 drafts: 2015: Eichel. That was the logical pick. 2016: Sabres took Nylander. Next forwards picked that were available: Tyson Jost, Then Logan Brown, then Michael McLeod. 2017: Sabres took Mitts. Next forwards: Michael Rasmussen, Owen Tippet, Gabriel Vilardi. 2018: Dahlin. Logical consensus pick. 2019: Buffalo took Cozens. Next forwards: Zegras, PodKozin, Boldy. 2020: Quinn. Next forwards: Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell 2021: Power was consensus pick. If you went forward, you had Berniers as the next guy. 2022: Savoie. Next forwards were Mintyukov and Connor Geekie. So yeah, to me its 2 things: 1. First round draft picks develop into star players a lot less than we think/want to believe. And 2....Its almost more about Development of the guy you took where you took him as the actual pick (Hello Terry Pegula gutting staff!) Again, if you look down the board enough, you will say "The Sabres could have taken THIS guy instead" Instead of Cousins, would they have been better off taking Cole Caufiled? Maybe, but no one was taking Caufield at #7. Montreal would not have taken him at #7. The draft board among teams in the NHL I think is pretty similar. The only 'bad draft pick' in the first round is if you have to choose between 2-3 guys who are in the same area of the board, and you make a massive mistake. Look at the picks above, they really didn't have year after year of "they should have taken the NEXT guy" Again, its not really bad drafting, its chance, bad development, AND maybe the roster mix you put those guys into. As with everything else, it comes down to Pegula. Pegula gutted the scouting department. It seems the Sabres development guys, if they are good, don't stick around for long and are replaced with entry level former players learning on the job. Pegula has the team spending under the cap so you aren't bringing in enough GOOD veterans for the young guys to play with. The criticism of Adams being awful always baffles me. I mean, maybe he IS awful. But tell me what GM is going to do better when he is operating 1.) with Pegula in his ear all the time. 2.) knowing he has the job because the other guy didn't follow Pegula's orders so he was fired. 3.) it is likely, VERY likely the Sabres have to operate under a budget/cap that is lower than the rest of the teams (imposed by Pegula). 4.) even when he is given autonomy from Pegula making a decision, the front office/hockey department has been set up to operate as a 'unit'. All the guys under (and in the case of Pegula over) Adams have input. I'm personally pretty sure if Adams wanted to make a move but if Pegula was present and saw Karmanos and Forton and others disagreed, then Adams would not be allowed to make that move. 95% of this team's issues are Pegula. Not drafting. Not drafting in and of itself.

It could just be the Rangers are not pressing, into the NHL version of a prevent defense.

This is the Rangers team just in the last 2 weeks allowed 7 goals to Seattle, 5 to New Jersey, and the Sabres put up 6 on them last month?

Greenway with 1 goal in his last 13 games played. Benson with 1 in his last 12 Peterka with 1 in his last 13 McLeod with 0 in his last 11 Tuch with 1 in his last 8. Cozens with 1 in his last 6. Not as bad as the rest, but you expect more with what he is getting paid and the ice time/PP time he gets.

I don't know. He's just really really bad now. Power is the forum whipping boy tonight, and the last few games, but he HAS had games where he has played well and helped the team win. Maybe not enough, but he has. Tage, people get upset with him but the guy is on pace for 45-50 goals. Cozens? How many games has he been a difference maker this year? If its more than 1 or 2 I would be shocked. He's just....bad..and he has been for a very long time.

Through 2, Power, if he did get benched in the first, made up for it in the 2nd. After only 3.5 minutes of ice time in the first, he's up to close to 11 through 2, so he had over 8 minutes of ice time in the 2nd. Ryan Johnson 2nd in ice time behind Byrum with over 14 minutes through 2. Peyton Krebs leading among forwards, He's aleady closing in on 14 minutes through 2 periods. Peterka with one single shift for just over 1 minute of ice time for the entire 2nd period.

I remember one of the offseason videos with Lindy visiting the Bills facility. He met one of the OL's, asked how big he was and the guy said something like 6'5" and 300 lbs....Lindy's comment was something like "I'll take a couple of them"

Counting tonight, he has a total of 1 goal in 13 games.

He actually has just as many shifts as everyone else, but very, VERY short shift times. He's only about there for just over 30 seconds per shift

Cozens not getting too much ice time in the 2nd either. 3 minutes so far in the 2nd.

Krebs is leading all forwards in ice time right now.

I just turned the game on. Power with only 3 1/2 minutes of ice time in the first period...did he get hurt?

Its not about Kevin Adams, it is about the entire Hockey department, and likely Pegula's very involvement in it. I have not been, and still am not for firing Adams without making MASSIVE other changes at the same time. Fire Adams, and it may be worse, as it may be used as a 'temporary move of 'doing something'' when in reality it just keeps the status quo the same.

Dahlin looks to be back by the end of the week. The team is better when he is on it. I love Tage, I will defend him against anyone who says he isn't worthy of his contract, and most of the time that he isn't a good enough first line player. But, Tage is not the best player and most important player on this team, Dahlin is. Since he left the game, The Sabres have allowed 17 goals in about 10 periods. They have been outscored 17-9 in those 10 periods. Their collapse against Colorado coincided with about the time he left the game. Also, 7 game losing streak.....its NOTHING! There have been 40 losing streaks of 7 games or longer just in the past 2 1/3 seasons. San Jose lost 9 in a row earlier this year. Nashville is currently on an 8 game skid. The Islanders made the playoffs and they had a 7 game skid last year that also started in December that had them looking up at the playoffs by the time it ended. And for good measure they threw another 6 game skid into last season in the spring before the playoffs. Get to 10 and its an issue, but 7 games? lol, nothing but a small test of the team's character.

I didn't use the terms.. "must win." In my above post. Not sure why you're referencing my post with calling out. "Must win." I hardly ever... If not outright never... Use those terms. I simply said if they went tonight things will look better, and honestly not all that dreadful. I personally do not like using or saying that a team is out of it. If there is still a chance that a team can get... Back into it... To me. That means that they aren't out of it. A win tonight means they are back into it... Or still in the playoff race. It just seems a lot of talk on this board is about how they're done. They're cooked. They're out of it for this year. My point is not only statistically is that not true of course, but with one win tonight... Things look not so bad in terms of how far you are from that last playoff spot.

That simply isn't true. I posted this with statistics to back it up in the past couple of days. Before the fight and after the fight That year, he was basically the same player. Shots on goal. High danger chances. Shooting percentage. Plus minus. Hits per 60. All of those numbers were basically the same before the fight as they were after the fight with very small variances. The only difference in his play was his 30 goal season. And his 30 goal season had really one thing that was different about it. He had an abnormally high shooting percentage that year. Again his plus minus, his power play time, his shots per game, is high danger chances, his own percentages... They were the same that year pretty much as they were the year before, the year after, and this year. Management and a lot of the fans have overrated him based on a anomaly of a one-year high shooting percentage. He has simply reverted to the mean of the rest of his career. Which is a 10% shooter meaning he'll get you 15 to 22 goals a year, will eat up power play time without being a good power play scorer, is awful without the puck, bad at face-offs, and can generate his own shot pretty well but doesn't convert well. The reason that many of us think he doesn't have much value anymore and want to see him move to Wing, move to a lower line, or even traded... As we are going on the assumption that he is what he has been his entire career, and the only one thing that was different at one point of his career is now reverting back to what it actually is. But again to the original point... In the small sample size before that game and then after the game... He was pretty much the same player. It just looks like the fight mattered because the player that he has been was a drop off from what we expected based on the previous season.

My problem with Cozens is, I don't think the above really matters that much at this point. He actually is getting scoring opportunities. He's just not converting because he's not a good shooter. Putting older more experienced wingers with him won't help much. Because what do you want to accomplish in the offensive zone? He's already getting the scoring opportunities from high danger chances. A more experienced winger does not turn his shooting, accuracy up any bit and make the shots he takes go in anymore. And in terms of defensively without the puck, the same thing kind of applies. When you watch the mistakes he makes, he's not put in a bad position by his linemates, he is taking himself out of the play regardless of his line mates and honestly, usually quite oblivious of them. Maybe putting more veteran line mates with him will be able to cover for him more but that doesn't make him a better player. He has to stop making the mistakes himself, and I have been watching replays of him closely for the past 2 and 1/2 years and he has not gotten one tiny bit better in this aspect.

That wasn't my point. My point was if they win one single game tonight they are much closer and things don't look hopeless. Not sure why the need for sarcasm and😆, I think my post was pretty clear.

Yeah, if in the last 7, they were 3-4 even (Lets say 3-4 meaning 3-3-1), they would be basically in a playoff spot now. Yeah, what if...if they did this, if they did that. But the issue behind this is, of those 3 wins, TWO of them, I'd bet if the NHL did winning percentage, the Sabres would have been at 98% to win them. A 4 goal lead in the 2nd in one, and a 2 goal lead into the 3rd in another, BOTH playing backup goalies. The way the 7 game losing streak has played out, some of the losses are almost incomprehensible.

For those looking for a positive side of things: Right now 8th in the conference is Philly at 30 points. With a win the Sabres are at 28. Right now 8th in the conference in terms of point percentage are the Rangers at 29 points in 27 games. If the Sabres win tonight, they will have 28 points in 29 games, and those same Rangers will have 29 points in 28 games. One regulation win tonight and again, the playoffs look "do-able".