mjd1001

Ok, I'm going to agree with you that they seem to have some offensive chemistry coming together so you should keep that going. But to me its not a no-brainer. They have scored and have some good chances, but they are NOT a good pair up and down the ice. I still see both of them going deep, not communicating which is making other teams zone exits a lot easier and leading to odd man rushes. When Quinn isn't scoring, he is pretty much invisible in the neutral zone or the defensive zone. The numbers back that up. Even recently, the number of shots they allow, the legit scoring chances that are allowed when they are on the ice together is usually the worst line on the ice (even the last few games). So yeah, for now keep them together and see if they can continue to develop chemistry in the offensive zone. I don't beleive NHL guys should need 'confidence', but if it does exist, let Quinn get some of it back. But if they don't get better in their 200 foot game, their defensive zone and neutral zone play may negate the offense they develop. The last game or so you put McLeod between them. Before the game, shots allowed, scoring chances allowed, high danger chances allowed...Quinn and Peterka have been pretty bad, and McLeod has been positive (one of the best on the team the whole year). In the defensive zone, McLeod didn't 'lift those guys up', rather they brought him down to their level. So yeah, I'm not saying break them up. And I'm happy with how good the goals looked. But to me, I'm still on Cozens was the #1 problem on this team...UPL's play this year is problem #2. Problem #3 hurting this team is not the play of the defensemen, but Quinn needing to play better across the ice.

I get the point, but I don't think the breaking point with the fanbase exists..meaning there is not one point where things fall off the cliff. The decline in interest with this team and fan support has been there, but it has been a consistent, month after month, year after year decline. Yep, its worse now than earlier in the year...worse than last year, worse than 5 years ago....but its not a 'breaking point', its just a continual slide down. As far as changing things, it seems to me to come down to money. At least since Covid, how often has Pegula made a decision, or allowed the team to make a decision, where he made a big-time investment? Taylor Hall? But that was a 1 year deal. The extensions to certain players? You kind of had to lock up Dahlin, and while Cozens didnt work out, the Tage/Cozens extensions were not out of whack with what others were playing. Investment in coaches/scouting/hocker people? he's paying 'fired' guys when he didn't have to, but he certainly doesn't seem to be looking to pay top dollar, or at least 'competitive' rates to attract the best people.

If that is the case, do it now and stick with it for the rest of the year. Byram has not been good, and does not have good underlying numbers either except with anyone but Dahlin. I like the idea, but I want to see Bryam out there with Power every shift for the rest of the year to see if it works. This year they have only played 300 minutes together (about 1/3 of their total time) even strength. But so far, what I have seen is they seem 'clumsy' together. Numbers? Their goal differential together is a -6. Fenwick is negative. Shots for vs allowed is negative. Expected goals for vs allowed is WAY negative. Scoring chances, high danger chances...all negative. Most of the underlying metrics for both of them are worse when they are together than they are when they play with anyone else. (of course the 'everything else' numbers include time with Dahlin which bumps those ups) Anway, if you are going to keep Byram, they should get a much larger sample size of him playing with someone, ANYONE else than Dahlin before they pay him a prety big extension. Looking at the underlying numbers with Bryam since he has been here....something interesting I have found..and it might just be random or a result of a small sample size: Bryams underlying metrics (like the ones listed above) are the best with Dahlin (or course) and the other guy they are decent with is Bryson. His numbers are the worst with Samuelsson and not much better than Power. In a very, VERY small sample size Byram seems to play better with quicker, puck moving guys (like himself) and worse with the bigger guys as his partner. In limited minutes with Bryson and Byram together (132 minutes es), their Fenwick is only slightly negative, yet shots for vs against, goal differential and high danger goals are positive. Shots for and xgf/ga are only sightly negative. Again, maybe something to it, or maybe just random.

I can't blame Adams for giving UPL the contract last year. I know some didn't want it, but based on how he played, his age, his pedigree...I would have done the same thing. Going into this season with UPL as the starter, Levi a full year in Rochester, and Reimer as the backup actually was a good plan to me and probably exactly what I would have done. I just don't think many expected UPL's play to drop off SO much from last year. Yeah, he was a top 5 goalie in the league the 2nd half of last year...maybe you didn't expect THAT to continue, but I certainly did not expect his play to drop off so much.

Maybe the reason he is playing poorly is because he was trying to hard as you said above. That may be true...but if it is...it still leads to him not being good enough. You don't want it to happen again to another goalie, and it may not be UPL's fault..but he is playing so poortly it is currently an issue for this team. A lot of the success last year was due to UPL's good play at the end of the season. He was one of the top 5 goalies in the league the 2nd half of the season. From Jan 1 last year until the end of the season, UPL had 4 shutouts, 25 games with a save percentage over .900 (including 9 games in a row at one point), and 19 games with a save percentage about .920. And they weren't all easy games. 15 times he faced over 30 shots, a couple times over 40 shots. Only 2 times did he have a save percentage of .850 or less. A 25 game to 2 game ratio in his favor of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. This year since Jan 1, he has 1 shutout, only 8 games with a save percentage over .900, and only 6 with a save percentage over .920. 10 games he has a save percentage below .850. A 8 game to 10 game ratio against him in terms of of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below. Maybe the team plays differently in front of Reimer, but since Jan 1, Reimer has played in 8 games. 7 of those 8 he has a save percentage over .900. (and those games are among games against Edmonton, Carolina, Winnipeg, and Ottawa, and NONE of the bottom 5 teams in the league) For those saying UPL's failures this year are a result of how bad the team is in front of him....the numbers on Reimer aren't just with 1 or 2 games anymore...once you get to 8 games played, you have to wonder is it REALLY the team just sucking in front of UPL but not in front or Reimer? or is it actually UPL? I don't want to get rid of UPL yet. We know he has it in him to potentially be a very good goaltender. It actually happened last year. But he has been a major problem with this team this year. Get to the offseason. If you have a phantom injury let it heal. Get your head back on straight. Because while I want him to probably be the starter next year, if he plays next year like he has this year, then there is a major issue. Its not all on the team in front of him, most of his issues are his.

Bernard-Docker has some points early and that is good...but I still need to see a lot more from him. I am rooting for him to be good of course, but when I watch him play, I don't really see anything yet other than a 3rd pair/7th guy. Still happy with the trade overall. I think the team needed to move on from Cozens....and Norris? If he has something lingering shut him down. Get him as healthy as he has been in years even if that means we don't see much of him until next season.

For the analytics fans: Kulich-Benson-Thompson line had the best numbers. They were well into the positive territory with both Fenwick, Corsi, shot differential and scoring chance ratio. All other 3 lines were negative in all of those areas. Peterka-McLeod-Quinn line by far the worst analytics. They did have a goal, but scoring chances were 3 for them and 8 allowed, High danger chances were 1 for and 7 allowed. Expected goals were almost 6-1 in Ottawa's favor when they were on the ice.

UPL playing worse than last year...I still think is in the top 3 reasons why this team wasn't in contention. Reimer is not the long term solution obviously, UPL needs to be better.

I don't think that many more. At 37, going on 38 years of age, I just think Reimer needs a little more time off between games.

Had that assist but finished a -2 on the night. Maybe there is just something about the KeyBankCenter that brings out the worst in his game?

It was an entertaining game for the most part. McLeod again with over 20 minutes of ice time. NO other forward with any more tahn 17:06.

Samuelsson actually takes Cozens to the ice. I would almost expect a scrum after that, at least a little one...but once Samuelssson saw it was Cozens, and Cozens did or said nothing back to Samuelsson...nothing.

Rasmus Dahlin vs the rest of the D-men tonight on the statsheet so far: Shots: Dahlin 4, everyone else on defense combined 3. Hits: Dahlin 5, everyone else combined 3. Giveways: Dahlin 1, Everyone else combined 7. Takeaways: Dahlin 1, everyone else combined 1.

McLeod with over 18 minutes of ice time with 8.5 minutes left...leading all forwards. He is again getting well over 20 minutes....first line minutes/usage for the last few games and counting.

Both games still going on, but the Pennslyvania teams losing by a combined 12-2 right now.

Can't find the article, not sure if I read it on here or the news feed on my phone... But did anyone else read the article about Helenius in Rochester this morning? They compared him to Kozak...saying that Helenius at this point in his career has to not worry about goals or points...Leone said when you look at Kozaks game it doesn't matter if he scores much or not because he does everything else right.

When they have played together this year with McLeod (in limited minutes) that line is a +1 goal differential. When Peterka and Quinn have played together with a different center, they are a -4 goal differential. Not much time with McLeod between them, but maybe his play/speed/positioning will do well for those 2 as his wingers?

The 'overthinking' is what people think paying him like a good 3c is. Wide variety of opinions on that topic.

He most certainly was a major problem. Whether you want to say it was the fault of the organization for the situation they put him in, or the losing just got to him....the REASON may not be all on him, but her certainly was a HUGE problem in why this team was bad. The posts are out there, but he made mistake after mistake, he was a minus player, just about everyone that played with him got worse..etc. etc. I wished it would have worked with him here. He seemed like a nice kid/guy. But they never really tried him at wing and he sunk this entire team playing at center while here.

I really think part of moving Tage to wing was to open up more ice time for McLeod and Kulich. It was about the time Tage moved to Wing that McLeod started to get more ice time. I know Lindy at one point earlier in the year criticized Cozens and Tage's play away from the puck at Center. But since he has moved to wing, I don't see much of a difference in his play. His play away from the puck. His production. His scoring chances. Everything I see is he is pretty much the same. No better, no worse at either position. If that is true, that means you put him in a position that allows you to put OTHER guys where you want them. Tage is giving you the same at Wing or Center? Great, we can move him to wing and give McLeod and Kulich more time at Center then.

I don't think that gets it done. Mind you, I would love for him to accept that. If he did I'd be happy. I just think, especially with the cap going up so much next year and projected for further pretty large increases, he will require a bit more. Thats about 5% of the cap. I think they are going to have to go to about 6%. Especially because the Sabres are sending him a message right now that not only is he not a #3 Center, he's a #2 for sure and currently is getting first line minutes. Its going to be hard for them to offer him a short-ish deal as he enters the prime of his career for 5% of the cap when he is getting used as much as he is, and producing in that role. I don't think hardly any team in the league gets away with 5% of the cap on a 3 year deal for a guy who is getting you close to 20 goals and 50 points in a season, who plays center, is one of your better 2-way guys, and is only 25 years old.

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason. A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts. If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case. Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center. An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points. Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that. Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money. 3rd line players, again, average 35 points. 3rd line players, even on 'good' teams, are usually even players in goal differential or slightly positive. He is way ahead of those productions number and he is a positive goal differential guy on THIS team, that says something. I'm not saying to give him nearly 8.5% of the available cap next year (like you did to Cozens), but throwing out numbers that are only about 4%-5% of the cap I think are crazy low.

James Reimer had glory days? I get your overall point, but it just goes to illustrate how sub-par the Goaltending has been this year with this team.

See,I'd be OK with Mcleod in that position seeing how I think he is pretty good defensively and away from the puck. Now, if you sign him long term and he ends up being a 10 goal, 20 assist guy long term, then you have an issue. I admit that. I just don't think he'd revert to that level.