mjd1001

I don't think that gets it done. Mind you, I would love for him to accept that. If he did I'd be happy. I just think, especially with the cap going up so much next year and projected for further pretty large increases, he will require a bit more. Thats about 5% of the cap. I think they are going to have to go to about 6%. Especially because the Sabres are sending him a message right now that not only is he not a #3 Center, he's a #2 for sure and currently is getting first line minutes. Its going to be hard for them to offer him a short-ish deal as he enters the prime of his career for 5% of the cap when he is getting used as much as he is, and producing in that role. I don't think hardly any team in the league gets away with 5% of the cap on a 3 year deal for a guy who is getting you close to 20 goals and 50 points in a season, who plays center, is one of your better 2-way guys, and is only 25 years old.

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason. A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts. If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case. Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center. An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points. Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that. Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money. 3rd line players, again, average 35 points. 3rd line players, even on 'good' teams, are usually even players in goal differential or slightly positive. He is way ahead of those productions number and he is a positive goal differential guy on THIS team, that says something. I'm not saying to give him nearly 8.5% of the available cap next year (like you did to Cozens), but throwing out numbers that are only about 4%-5% of the cap I think are crazy low.

James Reimer had glory days? I get your overall point, but it just goes to illustrate how sub-par the Goaltending has been this year with this team.

See,I'd be OK with Mcleod in that position seeing how I think he is pretty good defensively and away from the puck. Now, if you sign him long term and he ends up being a 10 goal, 20 assist guy long term, then you have an issue. I admit that. I just don't think he'd revert to that level.

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league. One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50: https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/. The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy (slightly). As for the conversation of 2nd line vs 3rd line....Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that. No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals. A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below). So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists. If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at. A little somewhat-scientific research. I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average: -Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys) -Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals) -Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals -Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals. So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys. McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year. Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals. The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities. I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c. So what is my point with all of the above? That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40. Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

I know an old thread, but just noticed this: Before the trade deadline, Pettersson: 55 games, 11 goals, 24 assists (82 game pace of 16 goals, 36 assists, 52 points) Since the Deadline, Pettersson: 9 games, 4 goals, 6 assists, (82 game place of 36 goals, 55 assists, 91 points) Not much of an issue to the Sabres anymore, but just interesting to see if he keeps up the newly accelerated pace.

One more positive to look at McLeods game. He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him. There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice. Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense. McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin). McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better. For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference. When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that. So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.

I actually think the opposite on Reacher. Season 1 was good to me, Season 2 not so much. I think the larger cast made it worse. Season 3 so far I think is as good as season one, maybe better.

I'd say about $5m per year with the current cap. With the cap going up, getting signed to $5m per year a year or two ago will be equal to $6m per year next year and the few years after. As for is this a 'career year' or is this a legit step forward with more opportunity? The analytics dept and the pro scouts know more than I do, I'll leave that up to them. I would say I think you can make the case for him being the 4th best player on the team this year...after Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin (put in him the battle for 4th with Zucker) Also, I dont' worry too much about 'overpaying' him. When you go back to the Tage and Cozens contracts, they were paid about 8.6% of the cap the year they were signed. It looks like a good signing for Tage, bad one for Cozens for the Sabres. A 'comparable' contract (same percentage of cap) starting next year would be about $8.2m per year. I don't think he is getting that. If they give him $7.5+ or over, yeah, come back to me and I'll question it, but I don't think things will be in that range. I'm not saying to overpay him just because you can....but if you worry he'll be another 'Cozens', well, then you are never going to pay anyone anymore.

Maybe we have a #1 line (Thompson as the center...or if Thompson is on wing, whoever his center is...it can change)...and then the #2 and #3 centers after that line are basically split. Meaning there is not 'set' #2 or #3 guy. Going into a game the plan is for them to get even ice time, and if one line is playing better, that game they get more ice time and they are the #2 line for that game, but that can change day to day. Who is the #2, or #3 center I think is more of a discusssion for the fans. My opinion is Tage can be Center or Wing. His production, his defensive play..its about the same this season wherever he plays (honestly, I think his numbers this year are slightly better at Center, but whatever). But when you look at Thompson having the ability to play center if needed, and Norris, and Kulich, and Mcleod, and then even Krebs at #4 with a possibility to not be out of place at #3...you have options there to mix and match. Sure, if a good center was available I'd jump at him, but I think this team needs more focus in other areas. Tage/Norris/Kulich/Mcleod/Krebs....mix and match them how you will, you have something to work with there. Now find some better wingers to play with them.

I'll repeat what I have said before....how many minutes do you want/project McLeod to be playing going forward? He has been averaging about 19 minutes per game the last couple months and not doing all that poorly. There are some variations, but when you look around the league, a typical 2nd line player/center gets 17 minutes per game. A 3rd line center gets 14.5-15.5 minutes. Do you want him in the first category or the 2nd? If you are happy with his play and want him to get closer to 17 minutes per game, then he IS your 2nd line center.

I need to see more obviously as many of us do. I didn't focus on him at all, but the little that I did notice him on the ice, it seemed like the team was chasing in their own end and allowing a few chances against when he was on the ice. Again, its only 2 games and limited minutes, and even if that is true it might not be his fault. Just I haven't noticed much positive yet...but i'm hopeful?

I'm not an NHL coach or scout obviously, and a lot of people know more than I do, and I miss some things too. With all that said, on the occasion I get to watch the replays of goals allowed or scoring chances allowed.....or better yet listen to someone who IS a former NHL person (player or coach) break down some of those things....I usually come to one conclusion: The Defense isn't good on this team, but they look worse than they actually are because of failed support or positional mistakes made by the forwards. With that said, Samuelsson has regressed over the past year or so, and Power hasn't taken a step-up in his defensive play, Bryum may be average-to-below average in his own end. But Dahlin is better than some think, and the 3rd pair guys (Clifton, Bryson) aren't good but they aren't worse than a typical 3rd pairing. The D needs some work or improvement, but I don't think they, as a group, are as awful as some think.

When Cozens scored 31 goals it still wasn't a good season overall. Mcleod is on Pace for about 10 goals less. But he's a positive player. Cozens wasn't. McLeods underlying metrics are good, Cozens underlying metrics were not. When people join McLeod's line, Their underlying metrics get better, it was the opposite with Cozens. Cozens had 31 goals, but almost everything else about that season was not a good season, his overall play and his numbers did back it up show it was actually a below average season. A huge myth that many Sabres fans have led themselves to believe was Cozens actually had a good season, it really wasn't. That is not the case with McLeod this year. His season is 'solid' across the board in all aspects of play. Cozens has never had a season like that.

I don't really know what to expect out of him. I think he's basically on a tryout to see if he fits on the roster next year.

Overall I think he is good enough to get 2C minutes. Now his production...what do you want from a 2C? If you want 25-30 goals and 60+ points, he might not get you that. But I think you are looking for overall play. He certainly does give your some scoring, so to me, yeah, I'll take the 15-20 goals and 40-45 points out of him (hes pacing for more this year), but I'll take that kind of prodution out of a player like him. I've been saying that all year long, even when he was only getting 12-14 minutes per game and I thought he should have a lot more. When you say #2C, are you comfortable with him getting 17+ minutes of ice time per night? Because THAT is what a #2 center gets (give or take a minute). Yep. I don't want him getting much less than that. If you don't think he's a #2C, the question is how many minutes do you want him playing? He is a 2 way guy, he's a plus player on a minus team, he is pacing now for 20+ goals and those 50 points. Can he do it again? Maybe, maybe not, but he is now. He IS a center. So how many minutes do you want him to play? Do you want to limit him to 12-14 minutes per game like he was getting earlier in the year? If you only want him playing that few of minutes, then he's your #3 guy and not on special teams. If you want him playing more minutes, then that is a #2 guy.

McLeod has been getting over 20 minutes of ice time the last 5 games in a row, with a couple games approaching 23 minutes. His ice time has been increasing quite a bit since January: 16:01 in October 15:30 in November 14:38 in December 16:52 in January 18:53 in February 19:21 in March He's on a 21 goal, 31 assist, 52 point, +11 pace. Had he been given more ice time earlier in the year instead of Cozens, McLeods numbers would likely be even a bit better.

And that is with them having 2 powerplays also? Some teams can get 4 shots on a single powerplay, sometimes in the first minute.

Being outshot 18-4. At least their shooting percentage is good, right?

I was kinda hoping it was more of a performance issue accountability. Like, Quinn doesn't bring anything except for goal scoring, Yet his last goal was 13 games ago, and he has 1 goal in his last 21. Or he hasn't been a plus in +/- for 11 games. -11 in his last nine games. And, if he DID miss a meeting, how the heck do you miss a meeting when your play is what I just listed above?

I think he has the talent to be an NHL goaltender. I think this year he is having a really bad year. There are some that are saying he is being hung out by the team in front of him. There is SOME truth to that, but there are way too many times he needs to be making more saves. Every goal is not black and white....there are some goals that even the best goalie in the world is not going to make a save on everytime....but they will make saves on them 50-60% of the time. UPL is making saves on seemingly 25% of those. I don't need him to make every save when a quality NHL shooter is one on one with him, but he certainly needs to make more than he currently is. Goaltending, in particular UPL, to me is the 2nd biggest reason for this team being as low as they are in the standings (Behind the collective early/mid season play of Cozens/Quinn, and just ahead of the utter failure of the 4th line giving up so many goals when their only job is to NOT give up goals.) I'm don't want him jettisoned from the team yet, but he needs to be better next year.

It was a pretty bad game all around for the forward lines. I looked up the numbers that were just released (and yes, these are just numbers, without knowing zone starts, who was matched up against, who, etc) -Best forward line was Benson/Krebs/Malenstyn (when he played with them). Positive Corsi, Positive Fenwick. They took 3 shots and allowed none against. -Lafferty/Kozak/Malenstyn (Malenstyn split between 2 lines), was 2nd best as far as the numbers go. Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring chances, shots...pretty much even for vs against. -Greenway/Zucker/Tuch (I'm not sure who played center there, but they were on the ice together for over 8 minutes) and McLeod, Thompson, Peterka were pretty much negative across the board. (McLeod's positioning was pretty bad on that first goal, the goal scorer in the slot was his guy, he drifted to the side of the net where 2 defenders were already there. That one is on McLeod, not the D-men, but it hurts the D-mens numbers). Individually, Lafferty, Power, Malenstyn, and Byram, Kozak and Zucker were all well into the positive territory in xgf vs against. Almost everyone else was negative, with Bryson, Clifton, Samuelsson, Tuch, Dahlin, Peterka, and Mcleod being at the bottom of the list. Again, just numbers...https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20242025&game=21106 Again, UPL didn't help the team. The 2nd goal was him being 'leaky' and the 3rd goal...well, he was screened really bad but at the same time he got beat cleanly. I can't say its his fault, but I want him, at this point in his career, to start to find ways of tracking the puck better so he can make a few more saves on those screened shots.

Except Vanacek had better save percentage/numbers in the 2 years under Ruff in New Jesey compared to what he has done since then. Niemi and Lehtonen where his 2 goalies most used in Dallas and they were about the same, or slightly worse after Ruff left. I'm not saying Ruff may have a more complicated, or worse system for D-men to master and that it may or may not hurt goalies. The overall numbers for many goalies, especially in NJ are a bit worse under Ruff, But saying every starting goalie under him has down years..just not true.

The 4th line this year has been awful. At least in terms of production and goals allowed. As much as people complained about Girgensons and Okposo, for the last few years they were even, sometimes a bit positive, sometimes a bit negative. But this 4th line has been bad. Lafftert, Malenstyn and whoever else is with them on a line are a -18 goal differential through this part of the season...on pace for about a -25 goal differential for the season. The 4th line the last 2 years COMBINED is about a -5 goal differential. The Cozens line (usually with Quinn) has always been an issue also. We have gone over it on this board before, Every single forward has better numbers without Cozens than with, even when you take a deep dive into analytics like Corsi, Fenwick, shots allowed, scoring chances, expected goals, etc. But just this year, Cozens, Quinn, or when the 2 of them together, they are/were a collective -22 goal differential. When Tuch, Thompson, or both are on the ice, the team is a collective +14 in goal differential (not counting PP, even strength only) McLeod's line (various teammates) is a +4. So yeah....as far as forwards go, the 4th line and the Cozens/Quinn lines have sunk this team. Tage, Tuch, and the Mcleod lines (with various teamates) are a +18 combined in goal differential. The 4th line and Cozens/Quinn combined for a -47. In terms of D-men, Dahlin carries everyone he is with. He's probably best with Byram, but not as drastically as many think. When Bryam is on the ice without Dahlin, the teams goal differential is -11. Clifton without Dahlin -6. Bryson without Dahline -3. Samuelsson without Dahlin -1, Power without Dahlin -9. Of all the D-men, Jokiharju has the best deep analytics and the best goal differntial with or without Dahlin. He was positive with Dahlin, positive without Dahlin, and his deeper stats like Fenwich, x goals, corsi were positive with Dahlin and close to even without him. Of course...these numbers alone do not prove who is good and who is bad, but they are a starting point. And while not proof alone, they do tend to 'verify' what many of us see with out eyes when we watch the games.