mjd1001

Ok, WHY do you think all those teams would love him as a 2nd line center? -When I actually WATCH the games (forget about stats), he very leads any kind of transition game through the neutral zone. It is not just everyone SAYING his is slow, but when you watch the game his strength for sure is not leading (or being part of) a transition game. -He is not a great (or even good) goal scorer when not on the Power play. Is he a good power play player? Yes, but look at how he performs at even strength...he is NOT a 2nd line center in terms of production on most teams, let alone almost all teams. I see a lot of people on here saying he is a top 2 center, but very few reasons for it. He should be getting 3rd line center even-strength minutes...and gaining a few extra minutes by being a regular on the PP an penalty kill. The eye test (for me) AND his even strength numbers (over not just this year, but just about EVERY year of his career) do not show any signs of him being a productive second line center, unless he is getting minutes on the PP..which you can do with a 3rd line center. I am not saying I hate ROR, and that this team will be a lot better without him...it is just he is not a guy that almost every team in the league wants getting 1st or 2nd line center minutes...especially at even strength. From a 2nd line center...that you expect to put the puck in the net, you need more than mid-teens in even strength goals year after year. This year he had 9 even strength goals...that puts him in a tie for 105th place among players listed as a center in the league.

I agree with you on everything except that trading him would be a mistake. Of course it depends on the return. I do agree that he is everything (almost) that you want in a 3rd line center. But that is my problem with him...right now, he is not getting the minutes of a third line center. Show me that his EVEN STRENGTH minutes per game will drop down where 2 other centers on this roster will have more than him and I'll be happy. He is good (not great, but good) on the power play and penalty killing...so give him minutes there. It is just 5-on-5, he is not a top-2 center...you need more minutes from people other than him. ROR this year STILL got more 5-on-5 ice time per game than Eichell (it was close though), that needs to change. I'm fine with ROR averaging 3.5 minute per game ice time on the PP, and 1.5 minutes Short handed (like he did this year) Lets just get him down to 13 minuntes per game even strength (still giving him 18 minutes average). With a couple minutes less ice time per game, he just might play even better because he won't be so worn out (physically and mentally) by the end of the year. The problem is, who (besides Eichel up front at ANY forward position) do you want playing 15-16 minutes per game even strength? Reinhart is another player who is a LOT better on the PP than he is even strength, and there was no one on this roster this year that was great even strength....and i'm not sure any of the young guys will be 'ready' next year to handle that workload. SO, it is either ROR again gets overworked...OR you trade for someone who can handle (and you WANT to handle) those minutes up front.

If he sold them to another owner who would keep them in Buffalo long term and make investments into the team (and arena), then I don't care. If not, then the family better keep them.

I have been critical of O'Reilly on this board for over a year. I don't just repeat what others have said about him..it is when I watch him that I DO see him as being slow...I DO see very little he brings to the transition game, and I DO see him as being not as good as advertised defensively (many times I have seen goals scored against the sabres where it was his lack of effort, or lack of speed you want from a center..that left him 2-3 feet behind the eventual goal scorer.) If, IF the Sabres do trade him and get a good return I will not be upset. However I have thought about my position on him a little lately. The guy does have the ability to score goals, more than you would expect form a 2nd round pick. If it is true that he does have more to give, then I'd want to see that. So what am I rambling about? I'm not going to be upset at all if he is traded. On the other hand, if he is here I'll also be very willing to have him prove my criticism wrong..and I think you COULD get 30 goals out of him if things fall the right way.

I have pretty much pulled for the Sabres all year long. It hasn't been a 'tank' season for me. HOWEVER, now that they are almost there, this is the FIRST game all year that I am hoping they lose...to lock up that top-4 pick and best chance at #1 overall. I have rooted for you to win (and watched most of your games) all year long....please, you may as well finish the job tonight and put one in the L column.

That really is the only way you can answer this question. For most improved other than that..I thought back to the games I watched...looked up and down the stat sheet...there is really no-one, NO-ONE that is a semi-regular player on this team that had a much better year this year than last. Rodrigues maybe?, Nelson??? that is pushing it though.

To everyone who is saying Guhle fits well as a bottom pair guy....I have high hopes he will be a top 4 guy very soon. Does he look like a top 2 or top 4 guy right now...no. But he is only what....20 years old? Give him a year or two, and I think there is a decent chance he becomes a #2 or #3 spot NHL d-man.

I'm guessing (and hoping) this isn't really his 'big shot' and chance to prove himself.....but instead an acknowledgement of the Sabres front office that he has drastically been more productive in the minors the last month or two..and a way to see how that translates against NHL competition. But even MORE than that...a couple games of 'exposure' for him to see how confident he is against NHL competition. If he doesn't get on the scoresheet, I wouldn't be worried, and I won't be upset to see him in Rochester next year still.

What exactly is TRpm..how is it calculated? IF you have a link to a prior thread explaining it, I'd like to learn more.

I think plus-minus has been bashed a little too much by the analytics crowd. Is it a perfect stat? No. Can there be a lot of factors that skew it quite a bit? Yes. But for 80% of the league, I think it can be a good too, not just discarded. I hear and read some people saying it is a flawed stat because it doesn't agree with what they want it to. Case and point? Ryan O'Reilly. He is a big minus player, and I have read people on this board saying it is a flawed stat because O'Reilly is not a 'minus' talent player because of his defensive play. However, earlier in the year, I have seen quite a few goals scored against the Sabres where he got a minus...where the goal was a result of a turnover of his...OR with a little more effort backchecking (or a little more skating speed) he could have reached the eventual goal scorer...but instead he was 2-3 feet directly behind the goal scorer when the shot was taken. I do know this for sure...if I was in the front office of an NHL team, I would come up with my own +/- stat. Every goal that was scored, I'd assign a % (out of 100) and assign that to every one of my players on the ice...shooting..passing..winning a battle....what percentage of that 'goal' were they responsible for. ON the minus side of things, I would do the same...then at the end of the year, I'd tally up the totals and use that as a tool internally.

If he plays the rest of this year, I want to see at least one goal. Next year, I would like to think he would spend some time with the Amerks (I just can't see how he would be fully aware and skilled at all the fine points of position and defensive play at this time). However, if he is with the Sabres and on the 3rd line or better, with PP time, I'd want to see 20 goals out of him next year. Whenever he DOES make the Sabres full time, I want him centering line #2, with O'Reilly as the 3rd line center.

The Leafs seem to be shooting high...and I mean aiming to get it right under the crossbar...every time they have a look up close.

I agree. For me, 2018-2019 in Rochester (a full year) would be/would have been great.....that year in college would be my second choice...then you see how he is in Training camp 2019 and see if he is able to make the team then. But we'll see...if he isn't ready for the NHL, we will know soon enough...if he is...then great.

I'm maybe slightly more than a casual fan...slightly more. I watch most of the Sabres games on TV, and probably go to a couple games a year. I think the Arena downtown is fine for the hardcore fans...or fans that are more into hockey than I am. Personally, I'm not a big fan of it. Over the last decade, I have seen almost as many Sabres games in visiting arenas than I have in Buffalo. I lived outside of Buffalo for a while before moving back (Boston area and in Florida) plus have caught a couple of games in other Arenas when in the are for conferences. I go almost as much to see the Arena and the area they are in as I do for the game. I'm not advocating the Sabres build a new $400 million dollar arena, but many of the other place around the league are nice, REALLY nice. Even in Columbus, the arena there is only a little nicer than the KBC downtown, but it is fun to walk around the area near the arena..it is filled with restaurants and bars and is just a little 'busier' than it is in Buffalo. Its a little more modern and inviting. The arena sure needs upgrades for the current Sabres ticket holders. I'd start with the seats and go from there. As a casual fan, I just long for a nicer, newer Arena that is actually fun to walk around before a game, in an area of the city that has a lot to do for blocks and blocks. Canalside is nice and the Cobblestone district has some decent places in it though...so that is at least a LOT better than we had a few decades ago.

Ok, as far as Reinhart goes....lets break down the basic numbers as of where we are now...projecting to 82 games for an equal comparison: 2015-2016: 24 goals, 20 assists, 44 pts....8 power play goals (65% at even strength, 16 even strength goals per 82 games), 16.8 minutes per game 2016-2017: 18 goals, 31 assists, 49 pts....9 power play goals (47% of goals at even strength, 15 even strength goals per 82 games), 17.2 minutes per game 2017-2018: 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 pts...8 power play goals (59% at even strength, 14.5 even strength goals per 82 games), 16.7 minutes per game So, if you look at the season as a WHOLE, who is Sam? Pretty much the same player he has been for his career. Of course, there is the side of things saying he has played great lately and a 'light has gone on' and he is a different player now...so....lets break his season down into 2 parts...2017 part of this season and the 2018 part...and project those to 82 games: This season 2017: 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 pts...4 pp goals (60% at even strength, 6.5 even strength goals per 82), 15.7 minutes per game This season 2018: 33 goals, 41 assists, 74 pts...14 pp goals (58% at even strength, 19 even strenght goals per 82), 18.0 minutes per game Looks really good over the last 30 games projected out to 82. However one thing to consider....has Reinhart 'turned the corner', or is he just having a hot stretch like he has, even in past seasons? Last year he was pretty consistent through the entire season, but in his first full year, he had a 25 game stretch where he got 10 goals and 10 assists (in his current 30 game stretch, he has 12 goals and 15 assists). And as far as the 'eyeball test', I remember at the end of that season, a lot of people were looking at his play then and thinking he had 'turned the corner' into a top guy...only to have him regress later. Just some further thoughts.

I'm not sure if O'Regan is even an NHL player so I don't know if I'd go that far. But, I have seen enough from Rodriguez to think he is a pretty good NHL player...if not a big scorer at least someone who CAN create offense occasionally. If you get another very good player on Jacks line, then Erod doesn't have to be the star..and it can be a very, VERY good line.

To me this is a small fraction of how annoying it is when people mix up loose with lose.

I found this interseting... Before Jan 1 of this season....38 games played...58 shots on goal (1.52 per game) Since Jan 1......28 games played...75 shots on goal (2.68 per game) A 75% increase in shots on goal? A function of more ice time? or him being in better positions in the offensive zone?

Anyone here playing close attention to Philly? If so, how are they playing so well? I thought of them as an average to below average team, so what am I missing? I just looked closely at the standings, and they are only 1 point away from leading the division, 9 points up on the last wildcard spot, and have won something like 11 of the last 12 or 13 games. Provorov is only 21 year old, but he is leading the team in ice time, is he really that good of a player?

With Risto, Nelson, Scandella, McCabe, Guhle, a HEALTHY Bogo (wishfull thinking), Antipin, and Beauleau....I think this D-core won't be a liability anymore. Great? nope, but I think you can get by with them and be a good team with that group providing you have quality up front. Of course, It would be great to have an top-notch D-core, and on paper I thought those guys could be one...but after watching many of them for a few year....slightly above average is probably their ceiling, and I'm not too upset with that. Just get Risto's minute down, have 2 of the 3 of McCabe, Scandella, or Bogo be fully healthy, and they'll be OK.

I want my 'complete' players who are getting paid as much to score 15-20 even strength goals per year... and to not be overrated in the D-zone. O'Reilly is good defensively, but I have seen with my own eyes too many goals scored where he could have stopped them by back-checking a bit harder (he was 1-2 strides behind the eventual goal-scorer.) and YES, I have posted to these forums the very games where that has occurred. Is being 1-2 steps away in that case another symptom of a lack of speed? I'm not saying O'Reilly is bad...but to say he is not to be questioned is terrible. You can't argue with the facts that he DOESN'T make it to where he should be in the D-zone and it results in goals...or that over MANY YEARS he is just not a good scorer 5-on-5. Sure, I want him to get more minutes on the penalty kill than any other center..and to be out there on the PP as well, but he is nothing more than an average player 5 on 5...the numbers prove that...and the eye test shows us he isn't the Selke award winner a lot of people want to think he is. Just as many on this board are tired of hearing about 'speed', I think it is just as crazy to not question O'Reilly as being a great player worth $7.5 per season.

I don't think the lack of speed with them CAN be understated. Slower players have more trouble transitioning through the neutral zone..they simply have trouble getting enough speed up to get separation from defenders when carrying the puck. Their numbers show this....when the puck is set up in the offensive end (on the powerplay), they are fine...but their lack of speed shows terribly in 5 on 5. Look at the past 2 seasons and compare the sables 'fast' forwards (Kane and Eichel) vs the slow ones (Okposo, O'Reilly, and Reinhart). Kane and Eichel have 92 goals, 72 are at even strengt (78%). The other 3 players have a total of 99 goals, 53 at even strength (54%). 24% more at even strength is a BIG difference. Or put another way, how many even strength goals do those players project to have per 82 games? Eichel: 23.5 Kane: 24.5 O'Reilly: 11 Okposo: 12.5 Reinhart: 9 I want all 3 on the Power play, and I want O'Reily taking important D-zone faceoffs...but other than that..those are NOT guys I want getting a ton of ice time 5-on-5. But you are paying them like you want them to get more 5-on-5 ice time than just about anyone else. In todays NHL, speed DOES matter, more than it did even 3-4 years ago. Sure, powerplay goals still DO count, but the slower players on this roster rely on the PP for more than half of their production. That is a fundamental flaw that is not easily changed on this team by "Filling in around them".

I like that everything and everyone isn't 100% doom and gloom around here, we need a balance....but...I still don't see the core of this team as being very good. The fundamental flaws are just too much to overcome without major changes: -Assuming Reinhart is here next year...3 of your top 6 (in reality and probably in terms of payroll) up front are not just slow..but very slow. The NHL has changed to a skating, transition league. Okposo, O'Reilly, and Reinhart...with them as 3 of your top 6, you can't be a fast team...only hope to be an average skating team overall. -Tied in to my above point...O'Reilly and Okposo are hard to move or can't be moved, and the money you have tied up in the is a LOT for what you are getting. -You need to hit on 3 or more of your prospects into becoming stars. By a 'star' I am talking a consistent 25-30 goal scorer up front or a D-man as good as (or better) than Risto. Mittelstadt, Pu, Asplund, Baptiste, Nylander, Guhle, Borgen...are we getting 3 "stars" out of that group...and another 2-3 above average players? Maybe they will be better soon...and that will be good...and maybe I'm just negative because I don't just want a "very good" team...I want a "Very good" team that is also one of the fastest and highest scoring in the league...and THAT is what I don't see. Okposo and O'Reilly and Reinhart may be better players than I make them out to be...but to be honest, I'm not a guy who is into the subtle aspects of play...who appreciates board work and positioning. I am just slightly above a casual fan and I want to see blazing skaters blow by D-Men and end to end action....not so much sound positional hockey.

Okposo and O'Reilly signings were mistakes. O'Reilly can still be decent, but a player as slow as him who produces what he does at even strength is no where near what he is signed for, and for a long time. Okposo is simply overpayed for what he is now..and he isn't getting any younger or faster. As far as this entire trade goes...I'm slightly disappointed with the return, but not in a big way. What did we want..a guaranteed 1st round pick that was going to be 20+? What does that turn out to be. Sure, its better than a 2nd, but It likely isn't going to be a great player. I looked back at the last 10-12 drafts (I think I stopped when I got to 2007), and there were a total of 4 players taken after pick 20 in the first round that turned into all-stars...and they were the 1-time all star players, not league superstars. The Sabres need more cracks at the top players so they can have a few that turn into something, but i'm not going to lose sleep over not getting a lot more for Kane.

Hes someplace in the middle. Below average players often have 15-20 game stretches where they get hot, but they can't sustain that pace. I think the only way to evaluate Reinhart is to look at his entire season, and entire career. Do you want a former high draft pick who, over the first few years of his career, looks to be a 20 goal, 25 assist guy who has below average speed but might still grow into a bigger role? He just seems to be exactly who he is over his career....better than how productive he was over the first half of the season..probably not as productive as he's been over the last 20 games.