
mjd1001
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Sabres “salary cap space is a mirage” per Yerdon in Athletic
mjd1001 replied to freester's topic in The Aud Club
I don't see a major cap problem here like some do...it all depends on how you fill the holes you have. It is up to you right now whether you want to pay/overpay Sam, he is not on the books for next year yet. Jacks contract is fine. Okposo and Skinner are overpayed for what they looked like this year....but not much more than what most other teams have in bad contracts (almost everyone has a few). Montour? like Sam above...don't 'calculate' an estimate for him against the cap until you work something out...and if you don't like what he is asking..then don't sign him. This team might be a disaster against the cap if a bunch of bad decisions are made in the offseason...but right now they have more flexibility to stay out of trouble (or get back into it) than most teams. -
That is the main problem I might have with the trade. I wasn't, and still am not totally against trading him. The team wasnt' much, if any better with him on it (at least as far as results go). The problem I have is...there were too many reports, too many rumors....on message board, twitter, and news reports from mostly credible reporters...that said if the Sabres paid his bonus they could have gotten a much better return. I have to think that one of those reports/rumors were true (particularly that Carolina came up a lot)...and getting less in the trade than you could have gotten if you had paid the bonus...that is as much on ownership as on the GM.
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If fans could fire an owner, would you fire Terry?
mjd1001 replied to Stoner's topic in The Aud Club
Agreed. Right now we don't know what things will be like in the future. Next year at this time, things might be 100% normal, the way they have been for years. Or, next year we might be dealing with no Bandits and Lacrosse league..maybe no AHL...an NHL with less teams, a good percentage of college sports teams no longer existing....The truth is probably someplace between those 2 scenarios....but nothing would surprise me now. -
If fans could fire an owner, would you fire Terry?
mjd1001 replied to Stoner's topic in The Aud Club
As long as the Bills and Sabres are still here, I think most people, including myself, would say no, he stays. However, that is really the biggest and only criteria where I would keep them here. I have said for the last few years there are things about them I don't like, how they run the teams. I just don't think they are that good yet as sport team owners. If you told me you could get rid of the Pegula ownership and replace them with somene else, and the ONLY thing you knew about the new owners was that they would keep the teams in WNY, then I would say yes, make that move. -
I posted something a few days ago very close to what you are saying. I like the discussion, I like thinking about and projecting 'possibilities' as far as how well the team is doing, but I have lost most of the rest of my 'love' or even 'like' for these teams. All things being equal, I want the Bills and Sabres to win. But I truly, truly just don't care that much anymore. Except for the few members of these forums who seem to always be looking to prove themself right all the time...I like the discussion more than the actual games....and I really don't feel any kind of need to support the teams anymore (or most pro sports teams, pro athletes, drivers, etc.)
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Speculation: Small Market NHL Teams Could Fold, Sabres are one of them
mjd1001 replied to Theana745's topic in The Aud Club
I can see that as being a 'loose' plan or hope at this time, but when it comes to make the decision I don't think it will be the case. Too much is uncertain and almost all of it leads to less revenue: -When will the season start? Will games this season be permanently lost? Will the season have a late start or games lost next year. Every one of those is a loss of revenue. -Merch sales and concessions, that is a lot of money that is already lost. That number will continue to go down/be a loss for every fan that doesn't attend a game again next season. Plus parking, plus other items. -Advertisers. Even IF they could start next season on time and the buildings were full, some companies are in bad shape and will cut back on advertising. Do you think every ad on the boards or the ice in every Arena around the league...that every single one of those companies will keep spending the same or more money next year? Then add in game over-the-speakers ads, banner ads, ads in the buildings, local ads (including restaurants and small businesses) that may buy a 30 second spot during the local broadcast. ANY reduction in that will be a reduction in revenue. -Ticket sales. Once again, how long before we can have people in the seats, and will it be the same? Some fans may not want to come back at all. What about paying for improvements to the Arena (extra cleaning, more space in restrooms/concessions). I have heard from more than one source that entertainment venues AT FIRST may only allow people in every other row, or every 2nd or 3rd seat must be empty. That may be how they start this. -National broadcasts. Not as big of a slice of the revenue pie as in the NFL, but will some major advertisers stop (or ask for reduced rates) because they have less money to work with? -Finally, we all hear there are a lot of teams losing money, and relying on revenue sharing. How many teams that were 'barely' making money will now move to the 'losing' money side of the ledger, and how many teams that were losing are going to get a lot worse? I'm sure I'm missing a lot of things. Bottom line is, there is going to be lost revenue, and maybe a LOT Of lost revenue. I can't see the actual cap being the same without the league asking for major concessions on player salaries. When revenue goes down....or even when your visibility of potential future revenue goes down, you have to cut expenses. Player salaries are the largest expense by far. The only hope I think the players have medium to long term as that all this stimulus money (and maybe a lot more being created by it being funneled through the banks instead of directly to small businesses, letting banks use that trick of 'fractional reserve baking to loan out even MORE than they are getting)...that this money creates so much in the system that all the dollars have to go somewhere. If that happens a lot of people will 'get their money' but that money might be worth a lot less. Of course, economists have been saying that is possible for decades now and it never really happened (that type of inflation) but if M3 money supply skyrockets this year by close to $6-$8 Trillion, then maybe (but that is an entirely different discussion) Who knows, maybe Bettman knows of a potential 'bailiout' for entertainment purposes. The pro sports leagues can argue its not about the owners and the players, but how many other 'jobs' are tied to their existence. In Canada, I'm sure a lot of citizens wouldn't mind some money supporting their teams....and in the U.S. with just one bill giving over $2,000,000,000,000 so far....finding 'money for all those tied to the entertainment industry...a 'bailout' of $20,000,000 to each us team would be just 1/1000 of one percent of what was spent in that one single bill? I hope not. - -
Speculation: Small Market NHL Teams Could Fold, Sabres are one of them
mjd1001 replied to Theana745's topic in The Aud Club
I thought about after reading your reply. I really don't miss the actual games that much....The Sabres/NHL, the NFL, baseball, etc. I miss them a LITTLE, but not a lot. What I do miss is the discussion about them, thinking about the matchups, pondering how an offseason move will translate to the stats and win-loss record in the upcoming season. The actual process of 'watching' the 7:00pm hockey game or 1pm football game I don't miss. Why? Because for the most part in watching a game, 98% of what I'm going to see, I have already seen something very similar. I'm not a regular fantasy football or baseball player, but as time goes on and I have seen more and more games i my life...very little I see in a a game is new. The only thing that really changes are the names involved and the results (and coaching trends) so I tend to follow sports now more like a fantasy player (keep me updated on scores and stats, with an occasional highlight) so I don't have to sit through 3 hours of a game where nothing exciting happens in 2.5 of those 3 hours. -
Speculation: Small Market NHL Teams Could Fold, Sabres are one of them
mjd1001 replied to Theana745's topic in The Aud Club
I'm actually the opposite. I am getting by better than I thought. Would I like them back? Sure. Are a lot of other things gone like movies and dining out and everything else, sure. But I don't wake up or live my day to day live missing watching sports all that much. -
Jack, VO, Reinhart, Skinner, Kahun, Lazar, Mitts, Cozens and Johanson....I'm ok with the best 6 or 7 of them being in the top 9. But I think this team needs to add 2 or 3 more quality players to the top 9. Girgensons, Larsson, Asplund, Okposo...I'm good with 3 of those 4 being on the 4th line. The question is..who are those 2 or 3 more forwards for the top 9, and what are they going to cost you? What I don't want is to overpay for a free agent just to fill the spot...or to sign/trade for a player that if EVERYTHING goes right they will be an improvement, but with the odds you are likely not getting what you want from them. I don't know the solution, the bad part is the most likely way to success is patience....waiting...not 'doing whatever is possible' to fill those holes right away.
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Of everything I have read in the last week or so, I agree with this the most. Its not much change again though. Unless Dahlin takes a huge leap forward, Mitts/Cozens/Thompson do the same...its hard to see how this lineup does all that well.
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I don't really know enough about the nhl game and positioning, coaching, etc to really have a great idea how he is doing. However, it seems that D-Men usually need more time than Forwards to reach their potential. With that said, I'm still hopefully he can/will be a Norris trophy caliber D-man eventually. For now, I just want him to get better every year. I really don't care if he kills penalties..but by next year I hope he is good enough to be leading the D-men in even strength and PP ice time.
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GDT: 3/3/20 Buffalo Sabres vs. Winnipeg Jets 8 pm
mjd1001 replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
I actually don't mind Dunleavy. He isn't 'flashy' and sometimes it takes a second or two for me to register if a goal was scored, but overall I prefer him to a lot of other people I hear doing play-by-play. Of course, I must say that I am NOT a fan of guys that get overly excited....RJ's calls to me are a bit too over the top. But I'd be perfectly content/happy with Dunleavy going forward. -
As far as a goalie goes, you can't have a bad one. You can get away with having a bad line on your team....or a bad D-pairing...but because there is only one goalie, your starter can't be 'bad'. With that said though, I don't think you need a great one. Just get someone who is just above 'middle of the pack', but has the potential every year to go on a good run. If you can get that and NOT pay him top 5 goalie dollars, I think you are set in net.
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Don't forget Montreal. I think there are 5 or 6 games left where Florida/Montreal/Toronto play each other. If one team tanks, it is likely the others will pick up some of those points from each other. According to NHL.com...remaining strength of schedule for the rest of the year.... Sabres, 4th most difficult remaining schedule in the league. Montreal, 15th most difficult Toronto, 17th most difficult Florida, 21st most difficult There are also alot of sites out there which tell you how likely a team is to make the playoffs, factoring in probabilities both based on 50-50 odds in each game..and others with strength of schedule..and others using very complicated methods like Sagarin's ratings. Of the ones I follow and find have been the most accurate in the past....they have the Sabres at 1-3% chance of playoffs as of today, Montreal at 1-2%, Florida at anywhere from 40-70%, and Toronto most of them all have right near that 55-58% chance. I don't think the Sabres are making it...but if they can reach/beat 88 points on the year (taking into considerations their upcoming schedule) and have a neutral or positive goal differential the rest of the year...I'll be content with the ending of the season they had.
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It is an improvement over last year. The sad thing is, it would be their best season since 2011-2012 when they had 89 points (They still have a chance of beating that season) How long go was that? That team featured.......Tyler Ennis was only 21 years old...So was Luke Adam who scored 10 goals in just over half a season...Jordan Leopold and Robyn Regehr lead the D-unit in games played. I really hope this team with Eichel having his great year can top that team and get 90 points.
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plus they are actually producing this year....more goal than usual for them. I think Larsson and Girgs are actually pretty valuable as 4th line players on 4th line contracts.
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Bogosian Signs a 1.3 Million Dollar Deal with Tampa
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
There is no denying what Cozens is doing in the Juniors right now...but many people were saying the exact same thing about Mitts 1 year after his draft. Yet Mitts might not be ready for the NHL 3 years after his draft, let alone one. -
Whenever the Sabres play and I'm at home on the computer, I like to check in on the opposing teams twitter followers or message boards for info and amusement.... For the last 10-15 minutes, the Leafs boards have erupted in blaming the officials. Many comments about how the 'league is against them'.
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If that is true, then why does it seem he is glued to Eichel like no other 2 players are? If it is true that their numbers don't drop off when seperate, then why is that the ONE thing this coach hasn't done to try to get a 2nd line going?
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Ok, I still don't think Jbot has to go. He inherited a mess, and he hasn't made it a lot better but I don't think he has made it worse. The O'Reilly trade I don't put on him....someone (him, O'Reilly, ownership) made the decision he had to go...probably before the bonus was paid, and he took what was probably the best offer. Was it fair value? probably not..but I don't think another GM in his place would have gotten a lot better at the time. With that said, I also don't think he is doing a great job...kinda just sitting on his hands. The moves he has made have been minor, haven't impacted the team in a big time positive way or hurt them long term in a negative way. Skinner deal doesn't look good based on how he is playing this year....but most people wanted him signed and you signed him for what he wanted. What I hate, and really hate about being a fan of this team now is the lack of any activity. Was this year a 'waiting game' year, trying to clear the cap? Maybe. But that doesn't mean you can't do SOME things to at least give the team and the fans something to hold on to for the future. Was there a deal for Risto that may not have been perfect but could have been decent? If so then make it. Is Bogo not going to be here next year? If so, the play Pilut more. Is Dahlin improving and is going to be the franchise D-man...if so then HE should be leading the D-corps in minutes. I don't think you need to rush players up from the minors....but...just do something..do something that gives us fans at least something to talk about and something to hope for...for the future. I don't hate the job Jbot has done because there isn't really a lot to hate..or like...I just hate the inactivity. This isn't the first or second year of a tear-down for this franchise where you have to preach patience to the fanbase...we are rapidly closing in on a decade of it.
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I'll add my agreement to this. Someone above laughed at the notion of the cupboard being bare....but it really is. Of course there are players there that are young, but no of them is jumping off the ice and looking like a legit top 6 nhl guy now. If one or more of them really develops into that....well then of course we all want that..but there is little in Rochester that shows the Sabres will be getting a few legit top 6 forwards from there. With that said...the situation is not totally hopeless. You have Eichel, Olofsson, probably Reinhart, and Skinner. That SHOULD be 4 out of 6 top 2- line positions. Is it easy to get 2 more legit top 6 guys...no its not easy...but 4/6 of the way there is not hopeless. Fill those spots....have a 'young guy' 3rd line (Cozens EVENTUALLY, Thompson, maybe Mitts?) and a 4th line that gets only a bit of ice time 5 on 5 but has some quality penalty killing players...now you are competitive up front. So this team could be in the playoffs next year...just i am not betting on it myself. Its not that I think JBott is awful..its just it has been so long since this team has been good...I need to see it happen before I believe it.
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If that is what you are getting out of the post, then you are missing the point. Heck, I even referenced the whole point of the post was about the performance of the depth of the forwards in the first line. The point of the whole post points out that it is not a bad thing he is having his '2nd best season', but rather there are a lot of other forwards making a lot more money and having much higher offensive expectations that are doing worse. So yes, this is 'being trotted out as an example of a bad thing' because the point is about most other forward on this team, using Zemgus only for comparison sake. You do not want a guy to be 5th on your team in goals...4th in even strength goals, and one of the few 'plus' forwards on your team when he is a career 10 goal, 23 point per 82 game guy.
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Here is something to think about regarding the forward depth on this team....Girgensons this year.... 1 of only 4 players to suit up for all 50 games so far 5th on the entire team in goals. Only 4 forwards on this team are 'plus' players (qualifying players how have played at least half the games). He is one of them. He is 4th in Even strength goals. ahead of players like...Olofsson, Vesey, Sheary, Johanson, Okposo, and every D-man. Basically, he is behind ONLY Eichel, Sam, and Skinner The way he has played the past few years..the fact he is pretty much an NHL 4th liner...and what he is getting paid....he should be ranking a lot lower in those categories.
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One reason why I don't think he gets fired...the plan might have all along been to wait for next year and the ownership was in on it. The team went into this year trying to be the 'best it could be' but with the thinking this wasn't the roster long term. If the team is bad..so be it for this year.....or maybe they can 'luck into' something good. They would take 'lucking into' a good season if it presented itself (kinda like the Bills making the playoffs a couple years ago), but this season is more Like McDermott's first or second with the Bills...NEXT years plan is to be like McDermotts year #3.