mjd1001

So where do we stand right now as far as making the playoffs? It looks like to finish 4th, you are going to have to get close to 60% of your total available points. That will make it in some divisions, but in others maybe not. But it is what you want to aim for in order to get that 4th spot. That would mean ending the season with 67-68 points. The Sabres have 12 points in 15 games so far. To get to 68 points, they need to get 56 points in their remaining 41 games. Or 1.37 points per game....Or 68.3% of available points from here to the end of the season. Only 6 teams as of right now are playing at a better pace than that. I'm not saying it is impossible...but the Sabres have to play and earn points like a top 6 team for the rest of the season..with a very condensed schedule, and probably missing their 2 top defensemen for the forseeable future.

I agree, that was my vote as well. Didn't like it from the start, and it has been around through so many bad years and really nothing good with this team, it should be changed soon. Maybe you don't make the change until this team starts winning though...

From a strictly basic statistical model, the odds of any one team, who has a 50% chance each year to make the playoffs....missing it for 10 straight years is about 1 in 1024 odds....yet it looks like the Sabres are going to do that.

If the sabres miss the playoffs this year (likely), it will be 10 full seasons and 10 missed playoffs for Pegula as owner) The franchise has only missed the playoffs 11 other times in the teams history Before Pegula, dating back to 1970.

What is really sad is....a few years ago the Sabres were looking like the team that could possibly do this. With all those draft picks, the cap space. I mean, they weren't on the verge of doing it, but they were in position...they had things lined up for the potential. Not only did they not, but it has gone horribly, horribly wrong. No big run here, they can't even sniff the last spot in the playoffs.

I realize it won't happen anytime soon, but you can take that one step further...a SMALLER rink than the current NHL one would make the game even more exciting.

If you are moving Jack, I'll even take slightly less if you can get the other team to take Skinner also. Long term, his contract is going to be a problem for this team for YEARS. He is under contract for 7 more years (including this year) at $9mil per year, and what kind of player will be at 33, 34, and 35 years of age when he has been playing the way he is lately at 27 and 28?

I've changed my mind on one very big thing that has been said for years and years about making the game more exciting/getting more scoring. Rink size. Conventional wisdom has been for bigger ice rinks. I think it is just the opposite. Smaller ice surfaces would lead to more scoring and more exciting hockey. Why? -With more ice surface, there is more space and more time for the defending team to react. Gifted offensive players will make plays no matter what.....what is needed is to reduce the time and space for the D-unit to react to that. -End to end rushes take longer to occur, cross rink passes have farther to go...with more time and distance there is more time for the D to react and set up and more chances for the team on the rush to make an error. -I even think of when the olympics are overseas on the 'larger' ice surface. Everyone said it would lead to more open hockey. It didn't. Scoring was down. Teams with the most talented shut-down D-units did the best. Why? They had more time to react and the larger ice surface benefited the better defensive teams/players more than it did the teams with gifted offensive players.

Close Encounters...I won't say 'perfect' but it is under-rated for sure. One of my favorites.

I'm not giving up hope on this season yet. I think the team can still turn it around, but it needs to happen in the next 7-10 days. With that said...This team is boring to watch..Even last year when they won games, I don't find them enjoyable. Even if they mange to get into the playoffs....i just don't know how likeable this group is.

I'm not saying fighting is a problem..I'm saying I don't like it anymore. It can break up the flow of a good game.

I think 25% would be good once you start letting people in. every other row empty...and then rows you do set people in being half full.

I thought of Andreychuk when thinking of Thompson the other day. Thompson has size...great reach...and we keep hearing how good his hands are....so why does he not work buy putting in in front of the net every single powerplay? His skillset should lend itself to sucking in most rebounds and banging them into (or at least at) the net.

I feel like this is the 3rd or 4th time I'm responding to this thread with different things to say each time... They might be closer than a lot of us think.... -right now I think a healthy Okposo doesn't turn the team round, but I think he helps more than most want to admit. -Skinner. That contract looks AWFUL now, maybe the worse in the league, but if you can get 25 goals out of him? -Mitts and/or Cozens giving you 10-15 goals and 25-30 points. -Dahlin. He might be the key. Take steps forward every week, and get on track to being a Norris candidate sometime in the next couple years. Is that a lot to ask? Maybe. But If you get those things (which aren't all out of the question), then this becomes a very good team.

Dahlin may need time. Chara, Hedmund, Erik Karlsson all took 3-5 years to develop into Norris Trophy candidates. Jack is very good, actually great. He is NOT generational though, too many people expected him to be McDavid (or Lemieux or Lindros) version 1a. The middle of the Roster has been mismanaged. Is that impossible to fix? No. Will it be very hard to fix (or have patience to fix)? Yes.

Ok, its only a few games into the season and this is where I am...I'm not even watching the games anymore. I'm doing other things while on the computer and just checking in on the score/flow of the game by reading this thread. Actually watching the game is worse, and a LOT more boring. I don't know what will get my interest back in actually watching the games. Need to be in a playoff position AND more importantly I want to see this team at least in the top half in goals scored per game.

I don't agree with all your points, but if things don't turn around this year I'm heading toward your side. 1. I don't want to see this team go 100% physical and try to play 1990's or early 2000's hockey, but a move toward players who are known for having that 100% motor (even if it means slightly less talent) I can get behind. 2. I would NEVER want to trade Eichel, but if this team continues to flounder, and you can get a major epic haul for him, I'd consider it. 3. If they are not making the playoffs, agreed. I know here we had a big argument about Reinhart being better than Olofsson (that may be true) but my 'eye test' early this year says Olofsson is playing harder, and Reinhart has hit his ceiling. 6. I'm not there yet. You don't want crap goalies, but someone like Ullmark WITH a better prospect coming up behind him is good for me...I think the Sabres may be there.

I agree with a lot of what you said. This game made those points shine..... Okposo isn't worth his contract, but when he is on the ice he is almost always one of the top 6-8 players on this team. Reinhart....I don't know. At the end of the year he is going to get his goals and points, but he is a 'difference maker' in maybe 1 out of every 5 or 6 games. Oloffson is one of the more noticable (in a good way) players on a regular basis now. I'm not ready to give up on Dahlin being great, but I want to see them just let him take off with the puck. Release him from the shackles of 'the system' and just tell him to try some of those end-to-end rushes instead of 2 steps and then a pass. Eichel....his best play to me (eye test) was always with Oloffson. Put him out there with good wingers, but not players who also like to carry the puck. The bottom line with me is, I big picture I don't know where to go. You have your Semi-Generational player in Eichel who is now in the prime of his career. You have another 2nd overall pick in Sam who is also in him prime. You drafted 1st overall the 'best' generational prospect at Defense we have seen in decades. You have gone through a bunch of coaches and GM's since the teardown. You have signed big-money free agents, gone through several different goalies. As fans we have gotten to the point of arguing over whether Reinhart or Risto are good or whether we want to get rid of them for anything of value.

When the team isn't that good, you lose a lot of the 'casual' fans. When the team is good, you get a lot more of the casual fans. What do the casual fans bring when the team is good? They want to participate in the conversations, but there is less breaking down the forecheck and the PP and PK systems...and more talk about how they just love the way a goal looks or the way the team is playing overall. I think if the team gets good, you'll still get some technical discussion on here, but those threads will be harder to find because there will just be more casual fans who aren't here now (or posting now) that will talk about more general topics.

I want Dahlin to be great right now and to start controlling games of course, and I wish he would have hit the ground running doing that now, but I can't say he is a bust of a high pick NHL D-man yet. Some players look great right away...Makar and Hughes....but then look at someone like Tyler Myers who looked like he would be all-world his after his first season but that might have been his best year ever. On the other hand, some D-men take years to get to where you want them to be. Chara maxed out at 11 points per season until after he hit his 5th year (and was clumsy at best in his own end also.) Remember Hedman didn't make a big impact until his 6th year...I remember he was the 2nd overall pick and people in tampa (fans and media) saying he would only be a slightly above average D-man through is 3rd and 4th years. Erik Karlson didn't start putting up major points until his 3rd year..and most people considered him a trainwreck in his own zone until at least his 5th or 6th year. Everyone develops differently. It looks like at WORSE Dahlin is going to be as good as a solid 2nd or 3rd defensemen (above average point production and skating, sometimes below average but mostly average in his own end). He is there already. There is likely more upside...how much more is the question. Its only 2 games, but right now he is leading the team in minutes per game, up about 3.5 min per game since last year....that means the coaches trust him (or feel they need him) a lot more this year than last year..and that is a good sign.

I can show this from a slightly different angle. What are the odds of a player being a 'difference maker' on any level? For that, lets look at players that have made at least 1 all star team (once again, at least one.....some of them have only made one meaning they may not be 'stars' but at least a difference maker.) Look at the 10 years of drafts from 2009-2018 (2019 and later most players may not have even had a good chance to mature enough to the NHL level) and what is the odds you will get a player good enough to make at least 1 all star team from a period of 10 years of drafts? Top 5 pick: 25 players, 50% 1 in 2 chance Pick 6-10: 12 players, 24% about 1 in 4 chance First round after pick 10: 16 players, 8% about 1 in 12.5 chance 2nd round: 9 players, 3% about 1 in 33 chance 3rd: 7 players, about 2% about 1 in 44 chance 4th: 2 players, less than 1% about 1 in 150 chance 5th: 2 players, less than 1% 6th: 2 players, less than 1% 7th: 1 player, less than 1%

I thought the same looks almost the same. I can probably convince myself it is a lighter blue if I really try.

full article here: https://www.operationsports.com/the-operation-sports-nhl-21-simulation-predicts-the-stanley-cup-winner-will-be/ Last year, the official EA Sports NHL 20 season simulation predicted that the Boston Bruins would hoist the Stanley Cup. The Boston Bruins had enjoyed a great deal of team success leading up to that prediction, so it was clear to many inside the NHL world, and even the casual hockey fan, that the the Bruins had strong Stanley Cup odds. In other words, it was not too outlandish to see the EA Sports 2020 simulation. Despite a strong but pandemic-shortened regular season, the NHL restart bubble did not end up being kind to the Boston Bruins. The Bruins struggled immediately in the restart bubble and were eventually eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs by the eventual Stanley Cup winners, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Now, this brings us to our preseason simulation for the 2021 season. These predictions always tend to be a bit wacky, but nonetheless I thought it would be fun to take a look and see what plays out here. That being said, this year the NHL season will only consist of 56 games. However, in NHL 21, you can’t choose anything but the traditional 82 games. This simulation was conducted on 1/10/21 and a few things of note: All games were simulated and the difficulty settings were all set on the highest level. The new 2021 NHL division format was used here with an all-Canadian division. A simulated schedule was used as I moved teams into their new 2021 divisions. The newly formed duo of Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall carried the Sabres to the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup victory. Both Eichel and Hall recorded 25 points in 25 playoff games. The Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the most valuable player in the playoffs, went to Buffalo’s Jack Eichel.

I'm not worried with Skinner yet until he starts getting scratched, or gets less than 12 minute per night ice time. 3rd line? You can put together a 3rd line that you expect to produce points...it is simply one that gets less ice time than the top 2. If your 3rd line is reserved for players that are valuable..but for whatever reason haven't 'earned' that extra couple minutes of ice time per game...so be it.

There is the issue of his 'politically in-correct' statements...but for me, that wasn't the reason I hated watching him....he seemed to both be such a big time jerk, AND he talked about hockey as if it was still being played in 1985.