
mjd1001
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Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense
mjd1001 replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
To me the last week or two the Sabres have had bad goaltending, but I think earlier in the year it was OK. As far as Defense, Pick on Pilut and Bryson all you want, I don't see them as playing poorly. Could they be better? Yes they could. But I think the Positioning and effot the Forward are putting forward in the D-zone is much worse than even the 3rd pairing on Defense. Cozins is out of position (overly aggressive) and leaves spots open all the time. Krebs might be the worse Forward I have ever seen in the Defensive zone (skating by guys, not winning any battles, late getting back), Quinn and Peterka put the effort (more than Krebs) but they need to learn a lot more positioning). Even the Veteran forwards have occasional breakdowns (not for lack of effort, but they just don't have that 'Boston bruin' like knowledge of knowing where all their linemates are going to be and not missing coverage. I also think Lyubushkin is still playing hurt. He was rock solid with positioning until his injury, since he came back he seems to be a step slower recovering in his own zone. -
I agree with you, also the one thing the stats don't tell you is how clean a draw it was. Pull the puck right back to a guy ready for a shot on net cleanly is one type of win, pulling it back into a scrum where you eventually gain control of it after a second or two is another. Both will be called 'faceoff wins' but they are 2 totally different things.
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That 2nd Vancouver goal.....I know to some I am picking on Krebs alot but I don't like anything he did there. He was the last one back into the D-zone by a lot and when he does get the just kinda glides his way to the side boards....Before the last pass is made the guy who made the pass is right in front of him and Krebs does nothing, makes no move to go toward the guy, doesn't even put his stick on the ice to try to disrupt anything. Then as the pass goes to the slot where the goal is scored for, he kinda heads that way but he just coasts there doesn't even take a stride. I don't know if he was at the end of a 2:00 shift and he was dead tired or not, but everything about his play in the Buffalo zone was absolutely awful there.
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I always thought Power play was mostly a function of 3 things and not much else: 1.) do you have a couple of guys with a skillset that lends itself to the PP. 2.) Luck 3.) coaching (and this is by far the last of the 3). You have Dahlin, Tage, and VO to satisfy the first one. The third one I have no idea how good the coaching is with these guys on the PP. The 2nd one comes and goes. All I would be worried about is the coaching, and right now I think the Sabres anre middle-of-the-pack in PP so i'm not overly concerned.
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They have 5 solid, but not spectacular D-men that they roll out there with pretty consistent minutes. No one is asked to carry too much of a load, they are all under 30 but yet none of them are too green-behind the ears. I have watched 2 devils games and they look solid back there. Same thing up front. They pretty much 'roll' 3 lines but even the 4th line doesn't get left out. They stay fresh at the end of games. Main difference I see between them and the Sabres is they have almost a perfect blend of young guys up front, late 20's guys, and older-than-that veterans. But they 2 main young guys up front are Hirschier and Huges. They have almost 500 NHL games experience between them already, so they aren't going through the same D-zone mistakes and 'learning' the 200 foot game anymore that the likes of Quinn, Krebs, Peterka, etc are. They played those guys the last couple years, they made mistakes (part of why they weren't that good) and now they are better for it. Something the Sabres can look forward to with their young guys up front next year and the year after. What will make them dangerous is in the next couple of years, they still have 2 more top 5 picks that will eventually make the team that aren't there now....they have their top guys locked up, but will have a lot of cap room/flexibility next year also.
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GDT: Boston at Buffalo, Nov. 12, 2022, 7pm, MSG, WGR
mjd1001 replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
Yes, The bottom 2 or 3 on the D-unit aren't great but they didn't cost the game/all the goals tonight. -First Boston goal on the PP, everyone was positionally sound, a defelction and then the puck going through players like a pinball. No ones fault on that one. -2nd Boston goal, Quinn/Krebs not winning battles/getting to loose pucks on the boards strikes again. Quinn this time, not even close to controlling it (I swear that exact same spot is where Quinn and Krebs lose all their battles in the D-zone). -3rd Boston goal. This one was a mess all over. D-play here was an issue I have to admit after watching the replay. I want Bryson's to pass that puck up the ice and out of the zone on the original zone entry. After the puck goes up the boards, I would LIKE Skinner to control it better (but it was a tough puck to control) Then Boston kicks the puck off a skate UP to a stick in the air, to ANOTHER stick in the air, Pilut overskates and takes himself out of the play, Skinner could have broken it up if he hustled back quicker. Bryson played the 2-1 as good as he could. Thompson no-where to be found (probably because he NEEDED to be up the ice because he needed to press with the Sabres down a goal). This 3rd Boston goal has a lot going on, but part of it is a bad exit pass/choice by Bryson, Skinner not scooping up a loose puck and getting back late, and pilut overplaying the puck/guy. -
GDT: Boston at Buffalo, Nov. 12, 2022, 7pm, MSG, WGR
mjd1001 replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
I missed that play but I have said that the young guys, Krebs, especially, need to learn a bit more situational awareness. Krebs 'advanced' numbers can be pretty good, but one thing they don't tell you is when he is out of position. He frequently loses battles on the board and his lack of top end speed often means he is late to get back on rushes. Those are the 2 biggest things I think he needs to work on. -
Pittsburgh actually IS what many of us thought Boston would be...an aging veteran team that has some, but not enough, young guys hitting the roster, while the veterans slowly fade. Calgary I'm just super surprised about. Thought they would be a legit top 10 team all season long and possibly top 5 team. Ottawa I thought people were over-rating coming into the season, but I didn't expect another terrible start like last year.
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It may have been Thompson or Hinestroza to come over to cover Eichel on the off Wing, but once he walks to the side of the Net, Power needs to get back there. Again, it is situational awareness and how quicly he recovers. I said in my original post you can't blame power 100% here, but if i'm going to put it on someone, I don't want him going to the other side of the net and leaving the entire lower half of his side uncovered. Maybe there was a defensive play being run and he did the correct thing? But I would rather have him stay in his position (where Eichel scored the goal from) and trust Tage (as the Center) to drop lower to cover the front of the net if/when Lyubushkin goes to the corner. In general, you want your Wingers to cover the high points and the walls up high, the Center to be about where Tage is, but if a D-man runs into the corner, I want Tage to drop to cover the front of the net and Power to not leave his side 100% uncovered. Ultimately, if you don't get the puck within 5-10 seconds, everyone will start chasing and then you rely on the other team to make a bad pass or your goalie to make a great save. It is something the Sabres have an issue with, the way the 2 D-men and the Center play in the Defensive zone. Guys like Tage stay up top and don't leave the slot open, but they don't provide that assist to the D-men. Cozins, on the other hand, will leave the slot open right away for the chance to play down low. I put this on the Centers over the D-mean though. The D-men are often in a position where they don't know if they are going to get help or not. If Tage and Cozens are going to play the same position, for the sake of D-zone coverage they have to play the same way or the D-men won't know where to go or who to cover. Hockey is a lot more complicated i'm sure at the NHL level than I understand, but I would think if Skinner isn't going low into the corner after the puck, then Lyubushkin will. If that is the case, Skinner has to cover the top of the faceoff circle on his side, Hinnestronza should do that on the other side. With the top of the zone kinda covered, Tage is free to drop down a bit and, if needed, tie up the opposing center in the front of the net, while Power doesn't have to leave his position. We talk about how can a team like Boston be still so good as they are, maybe its not because of their pure physical talent, but because the above is second nature to them. Quite possibly they hardly ever get caught out of position and their system is 2nd nature to them that it is automatic. Can save them 50+ goals a year just by knowing where the need to be and knowing EACH OTHER so well they can rotate without making a mistake.
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I agree. I still think this is a high 80's point team with the potential to be in the low 90's. They got hit hard by injuries, and Comrie has had a couple bad games after having a couple good ones. If this turns into a 5 game losing streak I'm not worried as that is likely. 6 game losing streak and then get back to me.
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So many goals allowed last night, I rewatched them but just don't feel like putting a huge breakdown of every single goal and going frame-by-frame through the replays, so just some general observations on what cost the Sabres on the goals specifically: -Comrie. He had a bad game, gave up a lot of rebounds, BIG rebounds, and you would want him to make more big stops than he did. Bad game. -Power, i don't want to say he is 'lost' in his own end because he isn't, but his positioning isn't great all the time. On Eichels goal Lyubushkin goes into the corner and Power goes to the other side to cover..not the bad play. But when Lyubushkin comes back toward the net, Power is very slow to get back to his side, leaving Eichel open for the goal. Not an Awful play, but as he gets better hopefully his reaction time on positioning will get better on plays like this. Overall, you just want Comrie to be better. Even though the Sabres gave up a lot of chances, if they had good goaltending they should win this game with 4 goals scored.
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I legit believe this team is better, but I cannot fault you for how you feel. Even if the team is better, on hot start that falls apart is one thing, 2 is another, but what are we up to? 4 in 5 seasons?
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I think the coaching staff/organization are happy with him still. He's 4th among all forwards in ice time per game, he gets PP time he kills penalties. As far as production, his current 82 game 'pace' is about 18 goals, 35 assists, 53 pts.
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I have watched and re-watched every goal the Sabres have allowed, and what I can say for sure is zero of them have been Lyubushkin's fault when he is on the ice. Maybe the analytics point to play in other parts of the ice, but when the Sabres have the puck in their own zone and he is on the ice....he is the 'anti-Risto', meaning so far he has not been out of position and hasn't made one mistake all year that cost the Sabres a goal.
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There has to be someone out there, a prospect, a player that is fairly young....that has the talent to play on the ice at least at the Rochester level and does not HAVE to fight to be of value.....but yet is (or can be) a good enough fighter to take on the heavyweights. I'm not asking for a team full of them, but how about finding one to add to at least Roch?
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Movies / TV Shows - I Have Watched / Plan To Watch
mjd1001 replied to Sabres Fan in NS's topic in The Aud Club
Took me 2 episodes to get used to Strange New Worlds, but by the end of it, you just might conisder Strange New Worlds a contender for the best trek show ever. Also, whether its the acting or how the role is written, Pike comes across as the most likeable captain ever in trek, if not the best overall. Lower Decks? I like it, but it doesnt' seem like a full 'Trek' series to me. More a decent-to-good generic cartoon that just happens to be set in the Star Trek universe and likes to make a TON of comments and name dropping from previous Trek shows and movies. -
Attendance issues at whatever our arena is named now
mjd1001 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
it might be a good message. If the team is busting their butts out there, and most of them would probably see that he isn't playing up to how he should be....if both of those things are true I think the rest of the team would WANT that change to be made. -
GDT: Coyotes @ Sabres 8 November 2022, 7 PM MSG-B, BSAZ
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
Context. Read the entire post. I stand by what I said that if you had Vinny and another veteran in there they would be a better team right now. But some other things I posted: -with regard to the young guys not doing well "but I guess sometimes these things take time." -with regard to young guys making mistakes (in this case Power) "He is young, he is going to make these kind of mistakes, but we have to be willing to have him do this where it is going to cost the Sabres goals." -with regard to criticizing Cousins and how he as to get better: "If I were to 'nit pick' (and I'll admit I'm really looking for something here" -also "I'll pause here again to say I like Cozens." -I also said I realize "But they made a comittment to playing the young guys." And finally, if you read the one line you took out of my post, it may sound like I am advocating for that exact line' But context clearly states the "If" before the word "put" is implied. -
Attendance issues at whatever our arena is named now
mjd1001 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Just how much of a 'team player' is he? Does/will he realize if he isn't playing well. If the answers to those things are positive, a 'nagging injury' is something that can get him out of the lineup evey now and then. -
Attendance issues at whatever our arena is named now
mjd1001 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Glad Okposo got the 'C', but its also a good thing he wasn't extended. He may still come around I'm not ruling it out, but in the small sample size it appears his play has declined this year. I agree 100% with the kids growing up. In no way am I advocating taking them out of the lineup, but Krebs and Quinn need a lot of work and have to get stronger or learn to win battles (they are awful at that now). Peterka is better than I thought. Cozens play and positioning is awful in the D-zone. Power is good overall but makes 1 or 2 really awful plays per game. Hopefully they will get better as the season goes on and that will make the team overall a lot better. This team needs to stay near or above .500 WHILE putting the puck in the net alot. If they can do that by the time the Bills season is over, I'm hopefull the weekend games at least will be close to a full house. -
Attendance issues at whatever our arena is named now
mjd1001 replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Hopefully, but I don't think a totaly full house. The "Lets boo Eichel game" to me was a one time thing. As each game goes by against Vegas, the booing and wanting to be there to boo might still be there a bit, but it will drop off as each game against them goes by. -
GDT: Coyotes @ Sabres 8 November 2022, 7 PM MSG-B, BSAZ
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
I'm not sure why you think I want a bottom 6 forward. I never said that. I said that guys like Cozens and Krebs are making so many mistakes that they are causing more goals against NOW than a 'bottom 6' forward would be. I also thought I made it really, REALLY clear that I understand and agree with them playing the young guys, but that it is costing them right now. Again, not sure where you think I was advocating for them not playing the young guys. That was not the point of my entire post at all. Guess you hear or read what you want though. -
GDT: Coyotes @ Sabres 8 November 2022, 7 PM MSG-B, BSAZ
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
2 PP goals allowed, that is going to happen, but that is obvioulsy an issue when you only score 1 total goal. 1 goal scored, at home, against an Arizona team with a losing record, against a goalie with a GAA close to 4 (both this year and in a limited career)....that is the big issue here. -1st AZ goal: 2 D-men who aren't in sync with each other, but this one is mostly on Power. Looking at it again this one is totally on Power. He 'flips' it to his D-partner but does so right toward the side/front of the net. Not only that but he did so kinda blindly. He may have caught him out of the corner of his eye, but even if you did, you simply do not do that with the puck. He is young, he is going to make these kind of mistakes, but we have to be willing to have him do this where it is going to cost the Sabres goals. -2nd AZ goal: Nothing really wrong here, a bad deflection. If I were to 'nit pick' (and I'll admit I'm really looking for something here), it is Cozens and his tendency to want to follow the puck too low. Several other goals this year were allowed when Cozens was on the ice because he leaves his 'spot' and wants to go down low where the D-men are. I have pointed out on a couple occasions he left the center of the ice to chase Defenders when a Sabres D-man already had that area covered and his 'vacated' spot was wide open for the eventual goal scorer. He 'kinda' did this here. If you watched the goal, the Sabres maintained the integrity of the 'box' positioning, but Cozens again is the part of that box that collapses down low. A deflection is not his fault, but he really REALLY needs to learn to not chase the puck when the Sabres already have coverage where he is going to. It has and will continue to cause goals against and chances against until he learns to stop that. There was only one player on that side of the ice and cozens went lower to defend against the pass when Dahlin was already there. I guess you can make the argument that Dahlin should have taken the guy in the goal mouth...but whatever, moving parts to this one. -3rd AZ goal: Goalie should have made the stop. BUT, Cozens out of position again in the D-zone like in the last couple even strenght goals against when he is on the ice (seeing a pattern here?) He is the Center, he goes down deep when the Sabres already have 2 d-men behind the net, takes himself out of the play 'lightly' finishing a check, and never makes it back up top to where the goal is scored from. Asplund and Olofsson go deep initially also, but when the 2-dmen are behind the net, they circle back and maintain their spots up high on the wings. Cozens, even after he is out of position, then stays in front of the net (instead of rushing back up top) and probably provides the screen that blocks the goalie allowing the shot to go in. I'll pause here again to say I like Cozens. I know people do not like when I say anything bad about him. He hits, he DOES win battles along the boards. But, he frequently, VERY OFTEN takes himself out of the play in the D-zone and it causes goals against. It happened 3-4 times on goals allowed early in the season and I hoped it would get better, but its not. It MIGHT be time for him to be put on wing because his positioning (or lack of it) in the D-zone as a center is causing a lot of problems. -4th AZ goal. Empty net, what are you going to do? Other than a clean faceoff win or hoping Tage can control a loose bouncing puck, nothing to do there. This team is not getting blown off the ice. Yes, they needed to score more goals. But they made a comittment to playing the young guys. Put Vinny in there every game, sign another 'bottom 6' veteran forward, and have a veteran take ice time away from Power while you ease him in, and this team is probably better. As many of us have, I have looked at replays of all the goals allowed by the Sabres, and Power, Peterka, Quinn, Cozens, and Krebs are probably more responsible for goals against than the rest of the team combined. I think that is what you get though when you commit to playing them and letting them learn on the ice. Of those players, I think Cozens is the best/most far along right now and that worries me a bit because he doesn't seem to be learning/getting better at his D-zone positioning, but I guess sometimes these things take time. -
GDT: Coyotes @ Sabres 8 November 2022, 7 PM MSG-B, BSAZ
mjd1001 replied to SABRES 0311's topic in The Aud Club
After that goal by Crouse, just another reminder (besides just using Tage as an example) that patience is required with guys. Whether Mitteldstadt, Cozens, Krebs...they might turn into very good NHL players but it may take another year or two even from now. Crouse was a supposed top 10 pick but dropped to 11th overall. Didn't play an NHL game his first year after the draft. In the next 5 seasons, he totaled 36 goals in 5 years, 10 goals per 82 game pace. I remember he was a healthy scratch some games and widely considered a total bust. But then last year, his 6th season in the league, something clicked. He started putting the puck in the net, getting more ice time, moved to the 2nd PP unit and by the end of the year the first PP unit. Ended up with 20 goals in 65 games (over a 25 goal pace) with Arizona. This year, he is doing even better, scoring at a goal-every-other game pace. Some of these prospects need time. I read a lot of "if you don't see something in the first 2-3 years, SOMETHING, they its time to move on" We have Tage as an example here, and Crouse is another example that sometimes players can fulfill their 'draft status' but it can take a LONG time.