mjd1001

Here is the issue with advanced stats and people who like to post them or post a chart with more blue than red and say "that shows it, he IS a good/bad player": Advanced stats from my point of view are just another part of the puzzle, just like the old fashioned/simple stats are. Plus-minus is not perfect, but that doesn't mean it isn't valuable if used the right way. Corsi is not perfect (although some advanced stats guys try to tell me over and over that it is.) There are 3 main categories of ways to evaluate a player/team. 1.) eye test (and there are different levels of that, how 'skilled' a player looks or how they play) 2.) Simple stats (old fashioned stats). 3.) Advanced analytics. NONE of those 3 alone proves anything. You have to used them together with each other and you can use one of them to counter another that may not be true. Here is the way I look at it. Wins and Losses are the ultimate team stat. HOW you get there can be broken down into various pieces. Simple goals, assists, and plus minus only give you a part of the picture. Advanced stats help to fill in the holes of that picture that goals, assists, and plus minus don't give you. But advance stats are not a replacement for them. Just as I view analytics as not a replacement for the 'eye test' in evaluation....I also view advanced stats as not a replacement for the simple stats, but something that MUST go along with them. What drives me nuts is when I give an opinion on a player (and opinion, I don't come in here like the kool-aid man busting down the walls of the forum) and then someone responds telling me I'm wrong and they show me ONE chart of their favorite 'advanced stat' to prove I'm wrong. I'm never going to give my opinion on a player, or a team, based on ONLY the eye test of 'how they look' or ONLY one simple stat...and at the same time if someone wants to change my mind they better show me (not 'come at me' but 'show me') a series of advanced stats that go along with the other two things. I like advanced stats, they give me more to look at and think about than what was available a decade ago. I just don't think you can use them to make a point while ignoring everything else.

+/- is underrated and right now people are attacking because it isn't perfect. Is it perfect? No, but it is a very good/useful stat when used in combination with a little common sense.

I wish I could contribute to this conversation or have something to say but I can't. Other than if he is playing well he'll likely get more ice time and with more ice time we will all see him more. Its a good question for people to give their opinion on becasue there simply isn't enough to go on now (at least for me). Good is a relative term also. In this case I think it means "good enough" to be an upgrade at the 3rd pair d-role over what they have so far.

I agree. While his pure production and skill potential on paper would be a welcome addition, I think this teams style of play make him a not-so-great fit. As for my style of play comment, when I watched Sam when he was here and a little bit in florida, he's good in the offensive zone, but he is not someone that is good at getting stretch passes and pulling away form the other team on a break, and I remember too many times that he would lose the puck or make a bad pass when transitioning in the neutral zone. He would be good on the Sabres PP, good when the puck is already in the zone, but this current Sabres team seems to be one that likes quick hitting passes out of the zone through the neutral zone, or skating very fast rushes through the neutral zone. That is not just what he excels at. I thought Sam and Jack worked well together. I used to think Eichel was the slowest 'fast' guy on the ice. Meaning he was a very fast skater, but he liked to just casually bring the puck in over the blue line, control it, set up and look around a bit. That is NOT how this current team plays. This team is fast passing, fast skating, stretch passing, and even quick hitter passing when established i the zone. Sam and Jack COULD do those things to an extent, but that was not their preferred style of play. Plus, Eichel and Sam I never really connected with as a fan. While they were hear I wanted them to do well but, even in their best years there was something missing from my point of view as a fan.

Online sites that present a headline to an article I am interested in (could be general news, sports, cars, technology, gaming, ANYTHING) and then when you click on that article link, it is not an article at all but a video you have to watch someone talk about the topic (often times with Ads before you have to watch). Some of them don't even have ads, they get right to the video, but I much prefer to READ my news online, not have to listen to a person go on and on for a while before getting to the point.

That is the thing I am least looking forward to. 70 inches of snow? done that can deal with it. Below 0 degree temps? Not fun but can deal with it (I used to work in Boston and traveled to Burlington/Williton Vermont one time and it was almost 30 below). But wind that strong? That is the worst thing for me. Hearing the house make creaking noises with the huge gusts, seeing tree limbs break off the trees, roof tiles becoming loose or flying off the roof, not be able to walk outside even to the store from the parking lot without feeling like you are going to get knocked over or pelted with debris. And of course the likely power outgages. I'd take a massive snowfall WITH freezing temps 10 times out of 10 over wind gusts this strong that are forcast to last for close to a full 24 hours.

Reinhart seems to be a guy that plays long stretches where he 'slightly disappoints'....not being awful, but is slightly below where you want him to be. Then he as a short stretch where he lights things up...to get his numbers to where you want him to be. Then he disappears from the score sheet for a while again. To Evaluate him I think you have to look at his numbers long term, and look at his overall play/skill long term. What does that make him? Probably a $5.5 to $6.5 million dollar guy. You CAN play him on a top line but he won't carry that line long term. Hes good on a 2nd line, good on the PP. Don't expect him to Penalty kill, and you better have someone else on his line (or with him on D) that can transition the puck out of your own end and through the neutral zone. Reinhart does his best 'hockey work' in the offensive zone, not the neutral zone or his own end.

I'm not saying much against analytics here, as I think they are useful, I just don't like when they are overused (such as someone posting a chart about a player that has more blue than red and saying they are good because of it). But what I am going to say, maybe Analytics is just better at noticing it than the 'guys' who only care about the eye test..... To me, you didn't need super fancy advanced stats to tell you he was bad. When the non-stat guys were saying he was good becasue he 'hits' or looks good skating, they were only looking at what they wanted to see instead of opening their eyes to 'modern hockey'. This is the one thing I started to look at with him about 3 years ago and it became very noticable with the 'eye' test alone, if you were looking for the right thing: -He just took himself out of the plays too often. One only had to look at goals he was on the ice for and watch the replays. He would chase someone into a corner and deliver a hit...only to have the puck go back to where he COULD/SHOULD have been had he not chosen to make that hit there and a goal was scored from the spot he vacated. Even worse, there were many, MANY plays that myself (and others) pointed out here where someone scored a goal and Risto had his back turned to the shooter and the puck while 5 feet away or less because he wanted to chase someone into the corner. Other times he was in the process of cross checking a player in front of the net, when if he chose to not do so he could have had his stick on the ice and poke checked the puck away from an eventual goal scorer. These aren't things that you had to reach to see, they were very very obvious. All he had to do in order to become a good D-man was to be a lot pickier about when to hit someone, and to pay more attention to where the puck was rather than trying to figure out who is the closest guy to him he coudl cross check. He never learned that here, and apparently isn't learning it in Philly either. There has to be a middle ground in terms of analytics and the 'eye test' guy, isn't there? A guy who can look at what analytics tells you, and then instead of just accepting it they TAKE that data and look (using the eye test) for hockey reasons why the numbers are the way they are?

Or an injury. He has 26 goals in 32 games He needs 24 goals in 50 games to get there. Really, an Injury, or the NHL doing something stupid like telling the refs to let clutching/grabbing/interference go......and he should get to 50.

Others agree, at least about the top 3....

Its not that I don't have any opinion on lines at all....or that I don't think its fun to put lines together in my head like I was playing NHL 23 (or 22, 21, etc). But at this point, I'm happy to sit back and just watch what Granato puts out there and watching how it goes. I've just come to the conclusion in my own head that Granato has a pretty good idea of the pulse of this team and through games, film study and practices that the entire coaching staff is seeing who is meshing with who, and who might benefit from a change.

Honestly I don't want either, even as a free agent signing where I gave up nothing. At some point all players hit the wall, and I think both of them are doing so now. Could you MAYBE get another good year out of them? Possibly. But I'd rather keep the current young guys instead. Kane has 4 goals this year and is 34. Get him next year how much better will he be at 35? The last time he scored 30 in a season was when he started that season at 31. For the last 4 years his shooting percentage is under 10%, at this point in his career, he relies on quantity of shots to get his goals. First, do you want to to give him free reign to take shots opposed to a linemate he may have here? 2nd, even if you do that, as he gets older, will he be as good at generating space and chances for himself that he relied on earlier in his career? I'm not saying he is a total Bust, but I just think he is on the downside for sure, and I wouldn't see him as an upgrade on this roster. For sure not over Olofsson as many are suggesting. Right now VO is a much better scorer than Kane, and I don't think Kane brings much else to the lineup that is that much better than VO. Same thing with Toews, other than that 'leadership' quality everyone talks about (I think the Sabres room is good enough there) I'm not sure what he brings. He is slowing down, so as far as penalty killing and a 2-way game you don't get much more out of him than you do out of a Girgensons for example. And offensively, the last 2.5 years he has hit the wall also. He still has some value in the offensive zone, but not much more than the Sabres are currently getting out of their 3rd line. I watched a couple Blackhawk games this year, and eye-test he is behind the play a step or two quite often, he is 'slowing down' for sure. If I had to pick one of the two, I'd take Toews, but I woudn't want to give up anything picks/prospects for him.

Agree. Its not NHL level competiton, but as young as he is the best thing for him is to play a lot of games at either level. If Comrie or Anderson gets hurt, he'll be back up again. Plus if some think he is good enough to keep here now, that just means you are in better shape for next year when Anderson is likely to retire for good.

I posted this last week, but I listed who I thought were the top 10 or 12 teams in the league. Then AFTER I did that I looked at the Sabres record vs that list. 2 wins, 11 losses.

They honestly don't have a lot of young talented guys, and they are relying on a lot of good-but-not-great veterans to carry this team. -Lucas Raymond has taken a half step back this year compared to last year. 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 10 games. Sophmore slump...maybe. But they must be a bit unhappy with him as his ice time is down also. -Seider is the other young guy they wanted a big step from but he is slumping badly over the last 12 games. 1 goal and 2 assists over his last 12 games, and a -9 over those 12 games. -Rasmussen is their version of Mitts. Former top 10 pick who hit 15 goals last year and they (at least the fanbase) thought he would build on that this year. Only 4 goals and 10 points through 28 games though...with 1 goal and ZERO assist in his last 10 games, and a -8 over that same time. -Chariot I think they expected more out of. Plus/Minus we all know has limitations as a stat, but he is a huge minus player this year and he is getting 2nd or 3rd pair minutes lately for them. Not bad, but certainly not the 20+ EVERY game some expected. -Vrana a lot was exptected from. I think he is close to returning though. They aren't putting the young guys out there a lot. If you look at who has the most minutes up front, other than Raymond (who is slumping big time) it is all the veterans. And to be honest, they don't have a lot of high end talent on that roster. Raymond and Dylan Larkin. Who else do they have that has the more potential than the 6th or 7th best guy on the Sabres? I don't think really anyone. They are in a slump for sure, but as I am writing this and looking at their roster, its not a high end roster. For Detroit to be a good team long term, they need Seider and Raymond to turn into Stars, and Edvinsson and Kasper have to develop quicly and have at least 1 of them turn into stars. Beyond that, this roster and the young talent in their system is a roster that CAN make the playoffs if everything falls right, but I don't see much beyond that.

Similar with us. We have an 'event' we needed to go to this weekend, could have done it tonight or tomorrow but had to schedule in advance. We did tonight so I woulnd't miss a game. Oh well.

This year he has taken a step back for sure so far. He is even gettin his ice time cut.

Its as if when Adams took over, he was told, or his own stategy was simply "a lot of young guys with talent are in the system, get rid of anyone who doesn't want to be here or who might be resistent to 'change' and simply wait, wait a couple years for the prospects to mature and fill the holes you create by getting rid of who doesn't want to be here" To me, it doesn't look like much beyond that. I think it might be fair to say he hasn't done a lot yet (although that might be the strategy) but he also hasn't made many huge mistakes. Risto, Eichel, Reinhart, Montour, and McCabe were the top guys on this team that he got rid of. Some of them are in better situations for themself, but I don't think anyone can say without a doubt that any of them are producing much better than they were here, or a that the teams they are playing on are a lot better than they were as a result of those guys being there. Eichel is Eichel, Reinhart is barely producing at a 50 point pace this year and his ice time is being cut. Risto looks like one of the worst 'high paid' D-men in the league, Montour is actually playing well but I don't hear many cries of wanting him back, and McCabe is...McCabe, a serviceable-at-best 2nd or 3rd pair guy. Anyway, I thik Adams is doing what he planned to do all along.

That is the exact way I said I viewed the tie-breaker on this, but I picked the opposite, Dahlin. The Sabres have other players that can score. Tage would be missed, but missing Dahlin, you would be creating a massive, 23-26 minute per game hole of moving the puck out of your own end, not making mistakes back there, and being the one who often starts the rush or makes pinpoint passes that allows the forwards (including Tage) to score.

I didn't even pay attention to him there. Giveaway on the board by him that 'looks' like he didn't put much effort in. The play I was talking about was on Tage's goal. He was around the puck 2 times but didn't really engage anyone. Before Mitts makes the pass to Tage, Makar comes to the board and just kinda waves his stick at Mitts, doesn't engage him in any way and simply allows him to make the pass.

I don't watch every Colorado game, but through some regular season games and a lot of post season, I have seen a lot of Mekar. To me he is not much different than Karlsson....he is great offensively and skating, but he is actually pretty bad in his own end. Out of position a lot and he seems to give more effort in the offensive end than his own end. One of the Sabres goals last night, he playing more like a winger than a D-man---on the boards making a stick check on one of the Sabres players, then he chased toward the blue line..and ended up trailing the goal scorer from behind. A lot of other people say he is good in his own end and that his positioning is actually good. I haven't seen that, to me his positioning is bad but he makes up for a lot of it with his speed and acceleration. But again, I have probably seen him play 20 games, not every one he plays.

Late 40's. I have some faint memories of listening to Ted Darling. This may be blasphemous to some, but I actually preferred Darling over RJ from what I remember.

Agreed. I don't expect them to talk MORE sabres than the Bills, but how about a little more balance. As others have said, they pick the top 2-3 stories about the Bills and just hammer them over and over and over, then they have guest after guest talking about the Bills (and a lot more talkign about NFL gambling). Again, how about mixing a little more Sabres talk in after a game?

One that comes to mind is Lawson Crouse in Arizona: -11th overall pick but many had him going even higher when he was drafted -His first 5 seasons, a lot of healthy scratches. 281 games played. 36 total goals (about 10 goals per 82). When he wasn't scratched was getting very low ice time. Widely considered a bust. Averaged only about 13 minutes of ice time per game played. -In season 6 (last year, I think he turned 24) the light went on. Over the past 2 seasons now...33 goals in 91 games (about 30 per 82 games). Hes now on the PP and getting top line ice time (17-19 minutes usually). An Even +/- player on a minus team. Not only does he play the PP, he is a top penalty killer and in the short list of forwards the team trusts in overtime. Maybe Sean Couturier: -8th overall pick, just like Mitts. Played his first full season at age 19. -In his first 6 years, never scored over the teens in goals, was under 40 points every year. -wasn't until his 7th year, at age 25, over 400 career games played, when he crossed 30 goals and 70 points. Mitts has only played 225 games so far, is 24 years old. Mitts career numbers per 60 are slightly better than Couturier's were through is first 6 seasons.

I am leaning Dahlin...because if I can't decide who is 'best' i try to think who is more valuable as the tie-breaker. Now I may be wrong this way, but this is how I think of it....if the Sabres were starting a 7 game playoff series and ONE of the two was going to miss the entire series, who would I want? Both would be a huge loss, but I think the Sabres could get by a bit better with Dahlin and no Tage, but if Dahlin were not there for a playoff series they would be in a bit more trouble.