
mjd1001
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Everything posted by mjd1001
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-Seattle is currently hanging on to 3rd in the division, but only 5 points up on being out of the playoffs, with Edmonton, Calgary, and Colorado the first 3 teams out of the playoffs currently chasing them down. They need to win and win right now. -Wright has only 2 points in 8 games with the team this year. -He also isn't getting much ice time at all. just over 8 minutes per game they are limiting him to when he does play. No penalty killing, he is is an aftethought on the PP (just touching the ice a couple times all year) The coaching staff doesn't have him playing much at all, and when they do he's not doing much out there. Best bet is to get him down where he can get a lot more playing time, AND free up the minues for older/veteran guys who can do more to help the team win right now.
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Is Tage Thompson a top 10 NHL player? Is he top 5?
mjd1001 replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
This year I'd say he is in the top 5. 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th....maybe even 6th. There are a bunch of players that can all fit in that area based on who is doing the evaluation and what criteria they are using....but I would put Thompson in that mix. -
Florida. I'm repeating that one from earlier in the year (the last time we went there), but my complaint, after a 5 days of staying with relatives there is just Florida. -Strip plaza after strip plaza with a few car dealerships mixed in between the bail bond and firearm stores. 6 lane divided highways. New subdivisions with $500,000-$1m homes that have no backyards and are so close together they practically touch each other. Sidewalks on only one side of the street that you can't walk on becaue no-one has basements so their garage is their storage and they park 4 cars in the driveway blocking the sidewalk. 100% hummity every morning. Drivers who cut across 3 lanes of a highway wile driving over 20mph over the speedlimit. Monster trucks (its a status sign down there, buy the biggest truck you can, add a lift kit, get crazy big tires, but never, EVER let it see a trace of snow, sand, or offroad dirt.) Crime (2 times in 5 days the walmart down the street had police there for incidents) In-laws and relatives who are trying to convince you to move down there (yes, we will BOTH quit our jobs and pick up and move here) when all you can think about since being there for 10 minutes it not being able to set foot out of that state. The food (water is awful, and in the past 2 years we went to 3 'authentic' mexican restaurants that ALL 3 had refried beans that were obviously served out of a food-service sized can)
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This is really a great chance for anyone who was injured to get rested up and get back close to 100%. On the other hand, when they squeeze the rest of these games in, the schedule is going to be so tight that the Sabres will likely be playing back to backs or 3 games in 5 nights a lot more against more well rested teams. Then again, The Sabres have 32 games played. As of tonight, the league as 8 teams with 32 games played and another 6 with 33....so they really won't have more gamed squeezed in from now till the end of the year than about half of the league.
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I guess I don't know the conditions of the on/off ramps. I just think overall its better to get the main artery going rather than having people that would use it try to navigate surface streets instead, which makes cleaning them a lot harder than keeping the thruway plowed.
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At this point I'm questioning why the Thruway isn't open yet. I know it was bad in parts, but from the little I have seen, even in the worst hit areas many/most abandoned cars/trucks seem to be moved out of the way, and from the traffic cams it looks like it has been plowed. Once you plow it and salt it and the snow (for the most part) stops, the best way to keep it clear or get down to the pavement is have traffic over it to 'work' the salt in. Besides, on social media alone, i have seen a lot of posts of people who are stuck in Rochester or near Erie trying to get through the area, or people in Buffalo trying to get out. One common thing is, they have been stuck for so long they will take ANY route once it becomes available. As travel bans are lifted, you are going to have some people not famaliar with the area trying to drive out of, or through the area on surface streets. Wouldn't it be better to focus on 'lifting the travel ban' on the thruway and getting pass-through traffic on there rather than keeping the thruway closed and 'lifting the travel bans' on communities? I don't know, maybe I'm missing something but with the plows of the state dot doing the thruway (they only do the thruway, not local routes) it would seem that wouuld make sense. What am I missing?
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Up here in Northern Niagara county things aren't that bad. Some roads totally cleared (just wet) some with many an inch of snow on them. I ventured out to Tops (in lewiston) and stopped at a 7-11 in norther Niagara Falls, not too far from Niagara University. -No problems driving here at all, even the other cars on the roads were fine, no accidents, no one stranded, etc. That is what happens I guess when you only have a few inches. -Tops was Busy. Bread section basically wiped out, dairy and frozen sections a little empty but not too bad. Parking lot almost full and took a while to check out. A few people in line near me were grumbling about busy it was and how long it was taking to check out....Seriously? Where else do you need to be where you can't wait in line for 5 minutes more than usual? -7-11 was open I got a coffee. Store had sections TOTALLY wiped out. Shelve were more than half empty, and some parts of the coolers or freezers were 90%+ empty. Roads once you crossed the line into the City of Niagara falls weren't all plowed, but they maybe had just a couple inches more than we had in Lewiston, so they still were in pretty good shape. Hoping things get back to normal soon, but kinda grateful we didn't get hit badly. I have lived in the metro area before and know how bad things can get when you are stuck in your home for days in storms/blizzards so just want this to end soon for everyone.
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1. Of course I hope so, and there is a chance, but at the moment I'd have to vote no as I put their odds at about 35-40%. 2. If healthy I think both of those are likely, Dahlin to get 20 and Tage to get 50. 3. Rookies will be hot and cold. I expect they will have stretches where they turn things on and stretches where they disappear again. 4. No idea 5. No idea. Mitts would seem the obvious candidate as the coaching staff seems to like him more than many fans. 6. I really think this might be a 'stand pat' year with nothing going on. I don't think they WANT to move anyone off the roster, but at the same time don't want to bring in marginal parts to take PT away from who is here. UNLESS there is a major deal staring them in the face or major holes to fill with injuries, I dont' expect much. 7. Same as above 8. Goaltending, I expect/hope it gets slightly better.
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
mjd1001 replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
I understand its fun to look at the current standings...how many points are they back, how many games in hand, etc. That is what we do as fans. But to truly get a handle on their chances, to me its less about where they rank in the standings now and more about getting to a certain point level. They get 93 points or less, they are likely out. 94-98 points, its a coin toss. 97 points or more, likely in. So for me, its more matter of can they get to, or are they on pace for that 95+ points over 82 games. They are behind that pace but currently not out of it. -
I just called the Tops in Lewiston, and they answered the phone and said they are open today. Again though here in Lewiston we never lost power and got a total about about 1-2 inches. HOWEVER, I can't imagine the condition the store is in. A lot of shopping I'm sure happened at the end of last week, and I can't imagine when the last time they got a truck in to deliver stock. That might be the biggest issue with stores all this week in the area. When will they open...tomorrow? when they do open whatever is left on the shelf will be bought by a lot of anxious people who just want to buy anything. Then, when will the stores get their next truck in? It might be a full week between deliveries at some supermarkets....and that isn't even considering what is left at the warehouses. The warehouses probably have stuff in stock, but it might be almost a week between them getting employees into work and having deliveries come in. Grocery shopping might be a challenge or a scavenger hunt for the next few days at least.
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Agree. In my lifetime, take every player in the league at their absolute peak, and the only 2 players that were almost unstoppable, that could carry an entire team by themselves were Lemieux and Hasek. I didn't like Lemiuex, but up to this point in life him and Hasek are hands down the best I have ever seen.
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Mario is/was the best player I ever saw play, and I was not a fan of his/Pittsburgh growing up as a kid. I am not old enough to remember Orr, and I only saw Howe when he was a shadow of himself, but including Gretzky, Messier, Coffee, Ovi, Hull, Forsberg, Borque, Jagr, Crosby, McDavid.....NOBODY was as unstoppable as Lemieux was at his peak in my opinion, not even Gretzky. Thompson goes pointless in a game about once every 3 games or so (he has done so 9 times this season, on pace for 20-25 pointless games for the season, which is still great). but to be at Mario's level, he'd have to cut that down to about 15 pointless games TOTAL for the year at most.
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We are in Niagara county but just north of the Village of Lewiston. We dodged the bullet on this one. So little snow you can see the grass in some areas (maybe 1-2 inches), our streets are now wet (can see the black pavement) and the sun has been out all day. My biggest concern was losing power and that didn't even happen. Going to take a walk outside in a couple hours to see if there is any tree damage from the wind around the neighborhood, but from the front window everything looks fine. I know others weren't so lucky.
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3 things I want primarily from any sports team I follow: 1.) Offense. I was never one for the classic 'pitchers duel' in baseball or any kind of hard fought defensive battle. I want goals, points, runs, the more the better. I am getting this so far from the Sabres so that is good. 2.) Exceeding expecations. For the most part getting this. Positive team goal differential (top 10 in the league). More points than games played. Still in the conversation for the Wildcard. I'll take it. 3.) Win the championship. Well, they probably aren't going to do this, but very few teams I follow make it here so.... 2 out of 3 realistically make it a good season for the Sabres and so far I'm just about there.
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I'm really not a fan of this. We live in Northern Niagara county so we aren't supposed to get much lake effect here (storm total forcast for us is 3-6 inches) but the winds are awful. I don't want to lose power with temps this cold, nor see any tree/roof damage that can come from this. Hopefully this isn't as bad as forcast and moves on quickly. Still, much rather take this on occasion than the 3 hurricanes I had to live through while living in Florida in the past (one where the eye went over my apartment). Nothing much worse than getting through the hurricane and then them not being able to get power back on for us for almost 5 days because where the power lines were down, the area was flooded and they couldn't get the trucks back there. Not easy to fall asleep in the days after a storm when it is close to 90 degrees, very humid, and you have no electricity/refrigerator/microwave/ air conditioning/even a fan. I ended up driving about an hour every day to just walk around an air conditioined mall 50 miles away and fill up my tank with gas.
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Time to reconsider Expected Goal % as a major stat?
mjd1001 replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
Here is the issue with advanced stats and people who like to post them or post a chart with more blue than red and say "that shows it, he IS a good/bad player": Advanced stats from my point of view are just another part of the puzzle, just like the old fashioned/simple stats are. Plus-minus is not perfect, but that doesn't mean it isn't valuable if used the right way. Corsi is not perfect (although some advanced stats guys try to tell me over and over that it is.) There are 3 main categories of ways to evaluate a player/team. 1.) eye test (and there are different levels of that, how 'skilled' a player looks or how they play) 2.) Simple stats (old fashioned stats). 3.) Advanced analytics. NONE of those 3 alone proves anything. You have to used them together with each other and you can use one of them to counter another that may not be true. Here is the way I look at it. Wins and Losses are the ultimate team stat. HOW you get there can be broken down into various pieces. Simple goals, assists, and plus minus only give you a part of the picture. Advanced stats help to fill in the holes of that picture that goals, assists, and plus minus don't give you. But advance stats are not a replacement for them. Just as I view analytics as not a replacement for the 'eye test' in evaluation....I also view advanced stats as not a replacement for the simple stats, but something that MUST go along with them. What drives me nuts is when I give an opinion on a player (and opinion, I don't come in here like the kool-aid man busting down the walls of the forum) and then someone responds telling me I'm wrong and they show me ONE chart of their favorite 'advanced stat' to prove I'm wrong. I'm never going to give my opinion on a player, or a team, based on ONLY the eye test of 'how they look' or ONLY one simple stat...and at the same time if someone wants to change my mind they better show me (not 'come at me' but 'show me') a series of advanced stats that go along with the other two things. I like advanced stats, they give me more to look at and think about than what was available a decade ago. I just don't think you can use them to make a point while ignoring everything else. -
Time to reconsider Expected Goal % as a major stat?
mjd1001 replied to JoeSchmoe's topic in The Aud Club
+/- is underrated and right now people are attacking because it isn't perfect. Is it perfect? No, but it is a very good/useful stat when used in combination with a little common sense. -
I wish I could contribute to this conversation or have something to say but I can't. Other than if he is playing well he'll likely get more ice time and with more ice time we will all see him more. Its a good question for people to give their opinion on becasue there simply isn't enough to go on now (at least for me). Good is a relative term also. In this case I think it means "good enough" to be an upgrade at the 3rd pair d-role over what they have so far.
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Rasmus Ristolainen, the myth has finally been broken
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I agree. While his pure production and skill potential on paper would be a welcome addition, I think this teams style of play make him a not-so-great fit. As for my style of play comment, when I watched Sam when he was here and a little bit in florida, he's good in the offensive zone, but he is not someone that is good at getting stretch passes and pulling away form the other team on a break, and I remember too many times that he would lose the puck or make a bad pass when transitioning in the neutral zone. He would be good on the Sabres PP, good when the puck is already in the zone, but this current Sabres team seems to be one that likes quick hitting passes out of the zone through the neutral zone, or skating very fast rushes through the neutral zone. That is not just what he excels at. I thought Sam and Jack worked well together. I used to think Eichel was the slowest 'fast' guy on the ice. Meaning he was a very fast skater, but he liked to just casually bring the puck in over the blue line, control it, set up and look around a bit. That is NOT how this current team plays. This team is fast passing, fast skating, stretch passing, and even quick hitter passing when established i the zone. Sam and Jack COULD do those things to an extent, but that was not their preferred style of play. Plus, Eichel and Sam I never really connected with as a fan. While they were hear I wanted them to do well but, even in their best years there was something missing from my point of view as a fan. -
Online sites that present a headline to an article I am interested in (could be general news, sports, cars, technology, gaming, ANYTHING) and then when you click on that article link, it is not an article at all but a video you have to watch someone talk about the topic (often times with Ads before you have to watch). Some of them don't even have ads, they get right to the video, but I much prefer to READ my news online, not have to listen to a person go on and on for a while before getting to the point.
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That is the thing I am least looking forward to. 70 inches of snow? done that can deal with it. Below 0 degree temps? Not fun but can deal with it (I used to work in Boston and traveled to Burlington/Williton Vermont one time and it was almost 30 below). But wind that strong? That is the worst thing for me. Hearing the house make creaking noises with the huge gusts, seeing tree limbs break off the trees, roof tiles becoming loose or flying off the roof, not be able to walk outside even to the store from the parking lot without feeling like you are going to get knocked over or pelted with debris. And of course the likely power outgages. I'd take a massive snowfall WITH freezing temps 10 times out of 10 over wind gusts this strong that are forcast to last for close to a full 24 hours.
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Rasmus Ristolainen, the myth has finally been broken
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Reinhart seems to be a guy that plays long stretches where he 'slightly disappoints'....not being awful, but is slightly below where you want him to be. Then he as a short stretch where he lights things up...to get his numbers to where you want him to be. Then he disappears from the score sheet for a while again. To Evaluate him I think you have to look at his numbers long term, and look at his overall play/skill long term. What does that make him? Probably a $5.5 to $6.5 million dollar guy. You CAN play him on a top line but he won't carry that line long term. Hes good on a 2nd line, good on the PP. Don't expect him to Penalty kill, and you better have someone else on his line (or with him on D) that can transition the puck out of your own end and through the neutral zone. Reinhart does his best 'hockey work' in the offensive zone, not the neutral zone or his own end. -
Rasmus Ristolainen, the myth has finally been broken
mjd1001 replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I'm not saying much against analytics here, as I think they are useful, I just don't like when they are overused (such as someone posting a chart about a player that has more blue than red and saying they are good because of it). But what I am going to say, maybe Analytics is just better at noticing it than the 'guys' who only care about the eye test..... To me, you didn't need super fancy advanced stats to tell you he was bad. When the non-stat guys were saying he was good becasue he 'hits' or looks good skating, they were only looking at what they wanted to see instead of opening their eyes to 'modern hockey'. This is the one thing I started to look at with him about 3 years ago and it became very noticable with the 'eye' test alone, if you were looking for the right thing: -He just took himself out of the plays too often. One only had to look at goals he was on the ice for and watch the replays. He would chase someone into a corner and deliver a hit...only to have the puck go back to where he COULD/SHOULD have been had he not chosen to make that hit there and a goal was scored from the spot he vacated. Even worse, there were many, MANY plays that myself (and others) pointed out here where someone scored a goal and Risto had his back turned to the shooter and the puck while 5 feet away or less because he wanted to chase someone into the corner. Other times he was in the process of cross checking a player in front of the net, when if he chose to not do so he could have had his stick on the ice and poke checked the puck away from an eventual goal scorer. These aren't things that you had to reach to see, they were very very obvious. All he had to do in order to become a good D-man was to be a lot pickier about when to hit someone, and to pay more attention to where the puck was rather than trying to figure out who is the closest guy to him he coudl cross check. He never learned that here, and apparently isn't learning it in Philly either. There has to be a middle ground in terms of analytics and the 'eye test' guy, isn't there? A guy who can look at what analytics tells you, and then instead of just accepting it they TAKE that data and look (using the eye test) for hockey reasons why the numbers are the way they are? -
Or an injury. He has 26 goals in 32 games He needs 24 goals in 50 games to get there. Really, an Injury, or the NHL doing something stupid like telling the refs to let clutching/grabbing/interference go......and he should get to 50.
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