
mjd1001
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Everything posted by mjd1001
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Football seems just so random at times. The dolphins aren't good enough to advance, but the Bills looked beatable for sure. Now you think the Bills are in huge trouble vs Cincy, but they look 'beatable' too. Even if Baltimore moved on, I don't see them beating anyone else. Depending on what half you took into consideration, Jax or the Chargers could beat anyone or get blown out by anyone. One bad spot by an official. One inch. A ball being 1/4 inch off of the ground vs hitting the ground. So many little things can be the difference between a team making an appearance in the Superbowl or going home 2 rounds early. I guess it is that way with all sports, but it seems like it shouldn't be that way with how long the season is and how much work goes into it.
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I don't see how Seattle is doing it. When I look at their roster, I just don't see a top team: -Burakovsky is a career 10-20 goal scorer -Beniers is a great young player, but on 'pace' for 30 goals, not like 50 or 60 -Eberle is getting older and like Burakovsky, for the better part of the last decade he is a 'in the teens' goal scorer -Gourde? see above -Sprong is a journeyman former 2nd round pick who is about a 35 point per year guy -On D-Larsson is a guy that no-one wanted the last couple years -Dunn was a 2nd or 3rd pair guy for St. Louis -Olesiak and Shultz...2 more journeyman that were also not much more than average 2nd or 3rd pair guys Their goaltending is middle-of-the-pack at best. The team Save percentage is about the same as the Sabres this year. Maybe its a case of giving guys a chance they havne't had anywhere else. I just don't see a lot of top talent on this team and their play keeps on surprising me.
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Jeff Marek believes Portillo will test free agency.
mjd1001 replied to Buffalonill's topic in The Aud Club
What is the rule with restricted free agents vs UFAs? You have to reach a certain age right? IF you are drated, the drafting team could just have exclusive rights to you until you reach one of the ages, UFA or RFA age, and then those rules apply to you. If you really, REALLY don't want to play for that team, you can always go to Europe and play there unless/until you force a trade or get waived. -
Jeff Marek believes Portillo will test free agency.
mjd1001 replied to Buffalonill's topic in The Aud Club
I agree with you. I know the players don't want this, but from a fans point of view...not much good come of it, and a whole lot of dissapointment/fan stress come whenver you think of a player and not know whether it was a draft pick that your team will never have a shot at. -
My company with regard to days off/vacation days. A decade ago, we got 12 paid holidays per year (including 'floating' optional days.) As of this year, we now get a total of 8. Years ago were were told "you earned your vacation, enjoy it". A few years ago it changed to "you earned your vacation, enjoy it BUT you must schedule it very far in advance or we may not approve it" Now as of this year it has turned to " you earned your vacation time, but there are 6! (six) blackout weeks that you can't take it...our customers pay the bills and we have to be available when they want us to be!" There is also something that some are figuring out (doesn't impact me directly but I still think it stinks). New hires at entry level positions making more money, sometimes noticably more than exisiting employees that have been there for a few years. Existing employess CAN get a raise, but they are very small. "Sorry, no money in the budget for that" is the answer. But if there is an open position in a territory that needs to be filled, a brand new hire, wth no experience, no special skills can get paid a good amount more than an existing employee who has been there for a couple years. I get it, they are couning on the exisiting employee not wanting to job jump to get more, maybe not KNOWING the new hire is making more, but it still isn't right. "Job retention" gets a smaller budget than the budget for "filling new positions". The problem is, most exisiting employees DO find out about this...and they they simply care less about their jobs. Instead of giving them the raise to at least 'keep up' with the new hires....what they often get is an employee who becomes 20% or more less productive, who does 'just enough' to keep their job, who doesn't work any extra days...because they were told as an exisiting employee they are 'maxed out' on the pay scale.
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Barkhov not playing up to his usual standard. Reinhart also. Duclair had 30 goals for them last year and he hasn't played a game. That is a lot of missing offense from just 3 players. Ekblad has missed about 1/4 of the season for them, and when he has played he just isn't himself. And Bobrovsky's save percentage is about 20 points less than it was last year. That pretty much sums of 80% of their problems this year.
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
mjd1001 replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
Not out yet, but a step back the past couple days. Last week I was feeling 45% chance of making it, now I feel it is more like 30%. -
Faceoff Guru & a Couple Stay at Home Defensemen
mjd1001 replied to CallawaySabres's topic in The Aud Club
I think if ROR is healthy, someone will give more than that. I agree with you though on not giving up more, just to me that will rule the Sabres out. Will someone offer St. Louis a 1st and prospects? I hightly doubt it. But I can see a mid level prospect and a pick, or maybe a late 1st going there for him...to rich for me. -
Faceoff Guru & a Couple Stay at Home Defensemen
mjd1001 replied to CallawaySabres's topic in The Aud Club
I'm just not interested in O'Reilly. Is he still a good player? Maybe, probabably, but whos roster spot is he going to take here and what is the long term cost? I dont' think they want to give him away and I don't want to give up a legit prospect for someone who is not going to be a top 2 line center, especially one who is over 30 years old. Again, its not as if he isn't a good player, but you aren't going to trade away all of your young assets....so if you choose to trade SOME of them, I want the help on the back end before the front end. Now, find a a guy on the D that can be a legit top 4 guy, and I'm all for that. Especially if he is more than a rental. He could be a top 4 guy...or a 5-6 guy where you give that last pair more minutes to take the strain off of your other top guys. But it has to be someone who can be here long term. -
As far as the bottom D-men on this roster.... Lyubuskin Is the best of the bunch. He's a #5 or #6 but when he isn't hurt he is legit NHL guy. The rest of them...Clague, Fitz, Bryson, Pilut.....to me they are all interchangable. Do they have different skillsets? Yes. Are there times where one of them goes on a 2-3 week run where they play better than the rest? Yes. But those runs of good play don't usually last, and when you total everything together....while many on this forum have their favorites they are all very close to each other in terms of overall production. The key to this team is not findout out which of them is the 'best', but rather insuring that all of them dont' have to play a big role long term. I don't think any of them are so awful they kill the team single handedly, but there isn't any one of them that is better than the rest. This team needs a healthy Jokiharju.
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I'm wondering if Reinhart is nursing some sort of injury. Its not just his raw production. I try to look at production stats for where a player ranks, not just the raw numbers. Scoring has been going up and up almost for the last decade, but it has been accelerating the past 2 years quite a bit. Someone scoring 25 goals 3-4 years ago is a bit more impressive than doing it this season. With Sam, he has been scoring a bit more lately, but he's tied for 130th in the league in points. 88th in goals. 161st in assists. And that is with not missing many (or any) games and getting top line ice time and he's on the 1st Powerplay team for them. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if he is playing though an injury. But If I was a big fan or follower of the Panthers, as the 3rd highest paid forward on the team at 27 years of age (in his prime), he would be the #1 guy I want to see increase production the rest of the year.
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My problem with Krebs is that if he does score 20 goals, that is great, but he seems a long way from doing that. He is playing better than earlier in the year, that is true....but earlier in the year he might have been the worset forward in the NHL...no offensive production, getting back late, whiffing at guys who eventually scored goals against and being a turnover/battle losing machine on the boards. He has progressed in the past 10 games or so...yes he has, but he still has only 3 goals in 31 games this year. He is young. There is no way I want to move him or give up on him...but in the past month or so, he has taken a couple of steps on a journey to being a good NHL player that requires a mile. He may do it. I hope he does it, but I need to see a lot more myself.
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Florida has 40 points, to get to 95 they need 55 more. They have 42 games remaining. 55 points divided by 42 games equals 1.309 points per game to get to 95 points. 1.309 points per game over 82 games is 107.338 point pace, which I put as 107.4
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They may very well fall out of that race for the reasons you stated (the kids slowing down, etc) but that doesn't mean they AREN'T in the race now. 95 sometimes gets you into the playoffs. Right now the 'pace' to make the last spot in the east is 95 also (yes that can change, a few points higher or lower) Look at the teams above the Sabres or in that last wild card spot and see what they need to get to 95 points by the end of the year: Islanders: .5975 of remaining points (98 point pace) Pittsburgh: .5795 (95 point pace) Buffalo: .5978 (98 point pace) Florida: .6547 (107.4 point pace) It's a race. I didn't include Washington, Tampa, Rangers or New Jersey, all of whom are within a handfall of 'points pace' to the Sabres and all currently in spots they can fall out of. So the Sabres goaltending can cool off a bit, Scoring may drop. The 'young guys' may hit the wall, or a Team like Florida might get it together and go on a 7 or 8 game run to pass the Sabres. Yes, those are all possible. But they didn't happen yet, so as of now the Sabres are right in the middle of a wild card race at the moment.
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
mjd1001 replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
I like UPL. I have defended him on this board many times in the past. However, I think the best combo giving the Sabres a chance to make the playoffs and do some damage would be a combo of Anderson and Comrie if they get things worked out. UPL may be the best of the three going forward, but right now I want to see Comrie until the wheels totally come off (if they do). -
-Seattle is currently hanging on to 3rd in the division, but only 5 points up on being out of the playoffs, with Edmonton, Calgary, and Colorado the first 3 teams out of the playoffs currently chasing them down. They need to win and win right now. -Wright has only 2 points in 8 games with the team this year. -He also isn't getting much ice time at all. just over 8 minutes per game they are limiting him to when he does play. No penalty killing, he is is an aftethought on the PP (just touching the ice a couple times all year) The coaching staff doesn't have him playing much at all, and when they do he's not doing much out there. Best bet is to get him down where he can get a lot more playing time, AND free up the minues for older/veteran guys who can do more to help the team win right now.
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Is Tage Thompson a top 10 NHL player? Is he top 5?
mjd1001 replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
This year I'd say he is in the top 5. 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th....maybe even 6th. There are a bunch of players that can all fit in that area based on who is doing the evaluation and what criteria they are using....but I would put Thompson in that mix. -
Florida. I'm repeating that one from earlier in the year (the last time we went there), but my complaint, after a 5 days of staying with relatives there is just Florida. -Strip plaza after strip plaza with a few car dealerships mixed in between the bail bond and firearm stores. 6 lane divided highways. New subdivisions with $500,000-$1m homes that have no backyards and are so close together they practically touch each other. Sidewalks on only one side of the street that you can't walk on becaue no-one has basements so their garage is their storage and they park 4 cars in the driveway blocking the sidewalk. 100% hummity every morning. Drivers who cut across 3 lanes of a highway wile driving over 20mph over the speedlimit. Monster trucks (its a status sign down there, buy the biggest truck you can, add a lift kit, get crazy big tires, but never, EVER let it see a trace of snow, sand, or offroad dirt.) Crime (2 times in 5 days the walmart down the street had police there for incidents) In-laws and relatives who are trying to convince you to move down there (yes, we will BOTH quit our jobs and pick up and move here) when all you can think about since being there for 10 minutes it not being able to set foot out of that state. The food (water is awful, and in the past 2 years we went to 3 'authentic' mexican restaurants that ALL 3 had refried beans that were obviously served out of a food-service sized can)
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This is really a great chance for anyone who was injured to get rested up and get back close to 100%. On the other hand, when they squeeze the rest of these games in, the schedule is going to be so tight that the Sabres will likely be playing back to backs or 3 games in 5 nights a lot more against more well rested teams. Then again, The Sabres have 32 games played. As of tonight, the league as 8 teams with 32 games played and another 6 with 33....so they really won't have more gamed squeezed in from now till the end of the year than about half of the league.
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I guess I don't know the conditions of the on/off ramps. I just think overall its better to get the main artery going rather than having people that would use it try to navigate surface streets instead, which makes cleaning them a lot harder than keeping the thruway plowed.
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At this point I'm questioning why the Thruway isn't open yet. I know it was bad in parts, but from the little I have seen, even in the worst hit areas many/most abandoned cars/trucks seem to be moved out of the way, and from the traffic cams it looks like it has been plowed. Once you plow it and salt it and the snow (for the most part) stops, the best way to keep it clear or get down to the pavement is have traffic over it to 'work' the salt in. Besides, on social media alone, i have seen a lot of posts of people who are stuck in Rochester or near Erie trying to get through the area, or people in Buffalo trying to get out. One common thing is, they have been stuck for so long they will take ANY route once it becomes available. As travel bans are lifted, you are going to have some people not famaliar with the area trying to drive out of, or through the area on surface streets. Wouldn't it be better to focus on 'lifting the travel ban' on the thruway and getting pass-through traffic on there rather than keeping the thruway closed and 'lifting the travel bans' on communities? I don't know, maybe I'm missing something but with the plows of the state dot doing the thruway (they only do the thruway, not local routes) it would seem that wouuld make sense. What am I missing?
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Up here in Northern Niagara county things aren't that bad. Some roads totally cleared (just wet) some with many an inch of snow on them. I ventured out to Tops (in lewiston) and stopped at a 7-11 in norther Niagara Falls, not too far from Niagara University. -No problems driving here at all, even the other cars on the roads were fine, no accidents, no one stranded, etc. That is what happens I guess when you only have a few inches. -Tops was Busy. Bread section basically wiped out, dairy and frozen sections a little empty but not too bad. Parking lot almost full and took a while to check out. A few people in line near me were grumbling about busy it was and how long it was taking to check out....Seriously? Where else do you need to be where you can't wait in line for 5 minutes more than usual? -7-11 was open I got a coffee. Store had sections TOTALLY wiped out. Shelve were more than half empty, and some parts of the coolers or freezers were 90%+ empty. Roads once you crossed the line into the City of Niagara falls weren't all plowed, but they maybe had just a couple inches more than we had in Lewiston, so they still were in pretty good shape. Hoping things get back to normal soon, but kinda grateful we didn't get hit badly. I have lived in the metro area before and know how bad things can get when you are stuck in your home for days in storms/blizzards so just want this to end soon for everyone.
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1. Of course I hope so, and there is a chance, but at the moment I'd have to vote no as I put their odds at about 35-40%. 2. If healthy I think both of those are likely, Dahlin to get 20 and Tage to get 50. 3. Rookies will be hot and cold. I expect they will have stretches where they turn things on and stretches where they disappear again. 4. No idea 5. No idea. Mitts would seem the obvious candidate as the coaching staff seems to like him more than many fans. 6. I really think this might be a 'stand pat' year with nothing going on. I don't think they WANT to move anyone off the roster, but at the same time don't want to bring in marginal parts to take PT away from who is here. UNLESS there is a major deal staring them in the face or major holes to fill with injuries, I dont' expect much. 7. Same as above 8. Goaltending, I expect/hope it gets slightly better.
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
mjd1001 replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
I understand its fun to look at the current standings...how many points are they back, how many games in hand, etc. That is what we do as fans. But to truly get a handle on their chances, to me its less about where they rank in the standings now and more about getting to a certain point level. They get 93 points or less, they are likely out. 94-98 points, its a coin toss. 97 points or more, likely in. So for me, its more matter of can they get to, or are they on pace for that 95+ points over 82 games. They are behind that pace but currently not out of it. -
I just called the Tops in Lewiston, and they answered the phone and said they are open today. Again though here in Lewiston we never lost power and got a total about about 1-2 inches. HOWEVER, I can't imagine the condition the store is in. A lot of shopping I'm sure happened at the end of last week, and I can't imagine when the last time they got a truck in to deliver stock. That might be the biggest issue with stores all this week in the area. When will they open...tomorrow? when they do open whatever is left on the shelf will be bought by a lot of anxious people who just want to buy anything. Then, when will the stores get their next truck in? It might be a full week between deliveries at some supermarkets....and that isn't even considering what is left at the warehouses. The warehouses probably have stuff in stock, but it might be almost a week between them getting employees into work and having deliveries come in. Grocery shopping might be a challenge or a scavenger hunt for the next few days at least.