
mjd1001
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Jakob Chychrun scratched for trade related reasons
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
He was scratched already what, 2 games ago. Certainly if you are going to trade him for sure, you don't want him to be injured, but usually I tend to think you don't scratch him until the deal is imminent, not days and days before. -
I agree. Except for me we had season tickets from the time I was 14 years old until I was in my mid-to-late 20s. I understand people want to go to the games. The tailgating, the energy and the sound of being there. But for just watching the game, I personally find it better on TV. After not having been to a game in years, we went to a preseason game a few years ago and got club seats. Even from the club seats, I was suprised at how little I could see compared to on TV. Most plays, and certainly every running play was just the ball carrier running into a mass of other players and then nothing specific I could see. Those who love the atmosphere, I get it, I did it for over 10 years.
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So, he not only wants a team that has a chance to win in the playoffs (obviously), but wants a big market, big city, lots of media attention. Got it.
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I agree. Contrary to some here, I like some of the younger guys on WGR, especially Dibiasi..who I think will be fine as a permanent replacement. Kinda sorry to see Simon go. Over time I tend to tire of certain host, but the GM morning show, while not perfect, has been one of my favorites. To me a lot easier of a listen than the afternoon show (which I don't even bother to listen to anymore except for very rare occasions).
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GDT Sabres at Kings, Feb. 13, 2023, 10:30 pm, MSG, WGR
mjd1001 replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
I'm somewhat in agreement with you. UPL looks like he can be good, but he is just so young. Often times goalies need years before you get the best out of him. He has shown flashes he has it in him, which is good, but he is NOT playing like even an above average NHL goalie yet. I want to see Comrie. I want to see him get an extended run just to see him play. UPL has earned a spot on this team next year, he's earned the right to fight for the #1 goalie next year when Anderson is gone. He has earned the right to get more NHL games this year....his play to me, however, has NOT earned him the #1 goalie on this team right now. -
Jakob Chychrun scratched for trade related reasons
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I mostly agree. To me there is very little downside to standing pat at the trade deadline and not doing anything major...letting this team play out the rest of the season. They COULD get hot (this team has been very streaky all season) and get in. They might not but you will have basically a full season to evaluate what you have. If something drops into their lap that they cannot beleive, of course make a deal. But there is a lot you can do in the offseason. -
Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
mjd1001 replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
Exactly where they place in the conferene isn't a big deal to me. Its making the playoffs or not. If they miss it by finishing 9th, 11th, or 14th or lower....doesn't matter much beyond their total points and goal differential. What matters to me in this order: -make the playoffs or not -total points, is it an improvment over last season -Total plus-minus in goal differential. Is it positive/ a lot better than last year. 95 points is where you usuallly need to get to in order to make the playoffs. Position in the standings now dosn't matter as much to me with 30 games left as the pace to get to 95. Right now they are on a pace for a fraction over 90 points. Need to pick things up, but not out of it for sure. -
Super Bowl..the game, the food, prop bets and of course SB Squares
mjd1001 replied to Norcal's topic in The Aud Club
I'm probably watching about half the game, wife wants to see a movie tonight at home. Its the Superbowl, but I've seen enough of them already so if I miss it and just see the highlights and hear the recap 500 times over the next week I'm ok with it. No prop bets, not betting for me. Tipping on winning squares? To each their own, but to me tipping is getting out of hand. I'm good with tipping up to 20% for a waiter/waitress when they bring food over to me, but for most other things I think we are taking it a step too far. -
Something is wrong when its easy to say you are glad western road trip is coming up and you won't have to play at home for a while.
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Maybe it has happened, but I dont ever remember any Sabres team, ANY NHL team being outshot 32-4 at any point of any game.
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1st Calgary goal, bad pinch by Power, he'll learn the more he plays but you get that as he still is a rookie. 2nd Calgary goal, good shot, hope for a better save or a little better backcheck/stickwork from Skinner. 3rd Calgary goal, want a save there also, but forwards/wingers late getting back.
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This is pretty much the best way I can view it. As I mentioned myself I used to be more of a Bills fan than a Sabres fan but that has changed lately. I have thought about something else on this topic....the popularity of the team and how much that makes it fun or frustrating to follow. Now, I want to make this clear....I do NOT like gatekeeping in anyway. I want ALL the teams Iike to have as many fans as possible, I want as many people to enjoy them, and I want as many people as possible to participate in following them/forums about them/social media about them. BUT.....when I visit the Bills forum now with their success, there tends to be a lot of threads and post that honestly, can be almost embarassing to read. Either complaints about things that make no sense at all other than people letting out pure emotion.....uncomfortable levels of 'player worship' after someone has a good game/season...and people who post things and argue about them based on reading headlines or what the talking heads on ESPN tell them. I tihnk it is great when the forums grow, and everyone has the right to participate and post what they think...but in the last couple years, I have personally taken a step back from the Bills forum because of that. While I personally agrue with people here on this Sabres forum, I disagree with some of the points and at times I go back and forth with some posters and it can get a little heated...I still end up respecting most of what is posted here, and look forward to the next post by the person who I just argued with. As of right now, following the Sabres on this forum is a great blend fun with the direction of the team and thoughtful posts/opinions on that.
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I think hockey has me still watching because for some reason, every game, every goal, seems unique to me, at least more than some other sports. In the NFL, there really isn't much I haven't already seen. Most great catches? I've seen something like them before. A great run? Seen hundreds of them already. Incredible come from behind wins? Not too incredible after you have seen them already. Baseball is even more like that...what haven't I seen occur on the field that I haven't witnessed before? Now hockey.....I guess someone could say the same thing..and yes, some of those one-timer goals are carbon copies of every other one. But over the years, It just FEELS to me that I am more likely to see something different in Hockey/the NHL than in most other sports. Waiting to see how a prospect develops in hockey seems more interesting to now than it does regarding a draft pick in the NFL or baseball. I think that is why I have come to watch ALL sports less than I have in the past, but the Sabres/NHL is the one I follow the most now (where 20 years ago it was 3rd behind the NFL and Baseball)
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A bit more detail of what I'm wondering beyond the title.... Do you visit this board because you are a Sabres fan first, above all other teams (Bills for example) and hockey is your favorite sport? Or is it more something like....I like other sports as much or more than hockey, I like other teams as much as or more than the Sabres...but it IS hockey season so I come here but I visit other forums for othe teams as much or more than I do here? Historically, I had been a bigger Bills fan than a Sabres Fan. Had Bills Season Tickets. Never missed a game. Sabres were always just 'something to do' for me. That started to change a decade ago. As the playoff drought has continuted, I have actually followed the Sabres more and the Bills a bit less. I have a few ideas why, but nothing I can say for sure is the reason.
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I'd rather not have to pay Chychrun what he will want.....get a lesser piece to put on that 3rd pairing (but still better than what they have now) and then STILL play the 3rd pair only 10 minutes per night.
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I think it is a good deal for both teams. He's not the sniper he once was, but he isn't totally washed yet. In terms of production he can be a very good 3rd line winger, a decent 2nd line winger, and can fill in on the first line in case of injuries. He's also a rental so while you only get him for the remainder of this year, you aren't going to have to fit him under the cap beyond this year. Plus while this is a deep draft coming up, the Rangers are going to be picking in the late part of the first round, so that pick wouldn't be a piece that would help them for a few years anyway. For St. Louis, as per my previous post, they are on their way down and their young talent pool is awful. They need a rebuild, they need high draft picks (their own might be) and the need multiple draft picks. This Rangers first fills the 'multiple needed picks'. They aren't likely to be good again for a few years, but they need to sell off what they can now. For their sake, you hope you can trade another vet piece for another first (ROR, or maybe you package something with ROR to get a late first if him alone isn't good enough), then you bottom out next year and get another high pick and hopefully that is enough to turn things around. Because otherwise, that franchise isn't looking good going forward.
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He's not what he used to be, but still a good player that can help the Rangers. I don't know if it 'puts them over the top', but you never know. St. Louis has to do this....They are an average-to-below average team right now. Kyrou is really the only foward they have that borders on being a 'star' but he isn't good enough to carry the team. Thomas is good, but VERY much overpaid ($1m per year more than Tage and Cousins?) Their back end is aging, average at best, with no young guy on the way up to fill any top 4 role in the immediate future. They have very little youth on their team that has a chance to be great, and their goaltending situation may be worse than the Sabres. They haven't had a single top 15 draft pick in over a decade to develop. A rebuild at this point might not be enough, they should be looking at a teardown/tank job, their roster needs it.
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Have somewhat a case of it with a relative I am exposed to a couple times a year. The kid is approaching middle school, but has basically zero autonomy in life. Was he introduced to sports to decide which one/if he wanted to play? Nope. His father wasn't into sports so the kid never got to try any. The father liked playing Guitar growing up, so guess what, a few years ago the kid was given a guitar (when he was under 10), he had little interest in it but he got it and was given lessons. Star Wars...the kid didn't really show any huge interest in it, but his father loved it growing up, along with the Transformers, so guess what, every year the kid is given star wars and transformers toys one after the other. And there is the flip side to it that I experienced myself. The kid likes Pokemon cards. When we visited a year or so ago, he wanted to show me his collection so we sat on the couch and we went through them, he was excited talking about them. But his father never liked Pokemon...so that day when his father walked in the house as we were sitting on the couch going through Pokemon cards...his father looked at us and told his son to put the pokemon away because he bought toy light sabes...and he called his son over and then proceded to try to get him to engage in a fake light sabre battle with him.
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I do think Chychrun would make this team better, but I'm just not sure I would go in that direction long term. To me it isn't about having the best group of players you can at every roster spot, it is about having a hanful of GREAT players and then having guys to pair with them what compliment them well at a good price. I try to look at the D-unit going forward. I think Dahline is your #1 guy, Power you hope is #2. One of them should be on the ice for 75% of the game. The D-partner for each of them doesn't have to be a high priced guy, he can be a guy who has limitations BUT pairs well with Dahlin or Power. Dahlin wants to join the rush alot? Let his long term D-partner be a guy you pay a bit less, but one who lacking in scoring or carrying the puck but can make a good first pass and doesn't get caught up ice much. Something like that. Now that may be hard to find that 'right guy' but they have some time to do that. So your THIRD pair is only going to get about 10 minutes even strength ice time per game ideally. I don't want them to be AWFUL, but I can save a bit of money there (and divert it to other parts of the roster) by doing so. Maybe make one of those 3rd pair guys a stellar Penalty killer, and he can get some additional ice time on the PK so you rest Dahlin and/or Power then. Maybe one of those 3rd pair guys is Samuelsson. He has the ability to step up in the lineup in injuries, and he will be your top D-man getting PK ice time. And with him as the anchor on the 3rd pair, you at least aren't awful there. Then find 3 other 'reasonable' priced guys that have a skill set that compliments Dahline and Power, instead of just getting the best overall D-man you can to plug into those spots and overpay for skills that they don't need to use with their partner. And as for Kane, again, I don't want him for free. I do not think he is a good player overall already. You might be worse on the ice with him compared to any of the younger wingers the team has, AND he is going to only be a year older and slower next year. Let someone else take him. In the right situation, where you ask nothing of him in the D-zone, he gets all the PP time he wants, he gets offensive zone starts....maybe, MAYBE he can put up some points for a team that has a huge, massive lack of talent on the Wing. This Sabres team is not that.
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IThe last couple years have been ok but it still is a 'somewhat bad' contract.. If he cotinues to produce at close to his current level (maybe a slight drop off) then his deal will fall under the 'not good' category, but not awful. The good thing is for the moment, you can justify it as being "good" if you try hard enough. You can say he is a top producer on this team, he fits into the locker room, and the Sabres have ZERO cap issues even with his contract. Basically, the team is better with him on it than without him...so his contract causes no problems currently and you are getting a player that produces and helps you win.
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Kane, a year older next year than he is this year, will be a worse player and less productive than VO. That move would be a step back for this team.
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I know others on this board disagree, but I wouldn't trade Peterka for Kane Straight up, forget about throwing in other assets. Kane is sliding. Scoring is up this year and he has a total of 9 goals. As others have pointed out, some of his D-zone and possession alalytics are off-the-charts bad. His shooting perecentage for the past few years is close to half of what it was at his peak...he either no longer wants, or is unable at this point to make it to the prime shooting areas he used to. He is getting over 55% offensive zone starts, he gets all the Power play time he wants, and his production is still falling. He simply isn't a good player anymore. He might, MIGHT have something in him for a playoff run for someone in a limited role, but I'd even doubt that. He is a player with a lot of 'wear on the tires' and is in clear decline.
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Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Up until this year, O'Reilly has had pretty consistent offensive statistics. The statistical peak of his career included his last 2 years in Col, all his time in Buffalo, and every year in St. Louis besides this past year. Over that time, he got 0.81 points per game. In each of those years, starting from the first one, he ranked in terms of points per game: 53rd, 90th, 35th, 49th, 86th, 49th, 55th, 31st, and 121st. Soe he peaks at the 'low 30s' range ranking....he usually averaged close to 60th (his average was 60th over that period...take away the outliers, the best and worse, and he still is at 59th best) Now I know this isn't terribly scientific, but that ranking would put him in the 'mid 40's for points this year. I'm pretty confident that adjusted for the level of scoring, his 'historical 0.81' would be closer to 0.90 this year. That is within a handful of points of where Cozins is right now. Their goal to assist ratio is also very close. So, at least in terms of points per game, Cozins is producing so far 'this year' at about the same rate as O'Rielly did during his peak years on average, adjusted for the increase in scoring this season. -
Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
As has been said, this is critical. To compete for the cup, you FIRST have to get players good enough to get to the playoffs The next part, getting over the top, having 'good' contracts that give you flexibility over who you are competing with is the next step after you get there. So if those estimates hold, the NHL looks to have the cap increase by about 4-4.5% per year. Both Cozens and Tage will be in the prime of their careers by the time they get to the mid-point of their deals (year 4) which will be in the 2026-2027 season. So ask yourself this...how good will Cozens and Tage be in 4 years from now? Because if the Cap trends show above are true, their deals will be about 7.5% of the cap at that point. For comparison, Skinner's deal is/was over 10% of the cap at the mid point of his deal. Right now Barkov is 27 and getting paid 12.1% of the cap. Seb Aho is close to 10%. Rantannan is at over 11%. Marner, Tavares and Matthews are over 13 or 14%. So, if Cozens and Tage don't get any better than they are today, the deals are still 'not bad', but if they keep getting better, they are ABSURD good deals. -
Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV
mjd1001 replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
The Horvat deal is a problem because of his age. There are excpetions, but forwards production usually peaks at age 25-28. He is already there. History, stats, analyitics....all point to a player at age 28 at best maintaining their current production level for 2-4 years, but then usually dropping off. If I'm giving a 7 year contract to a forward, the ideal one would be that carries him from about age 23-30. The Cousins deal is close to that. The Horvat contract taking him to his mid 30's....not ideal.