mjd1001

Actually, our view is not that different then. I have said previously I think he can be an average, maybe well above average as a winger. He WANTS to chase the puck into the corners and hit guys. He wants to take shots when the puck is on his stick. He wants to play the puck on the boards and in the corner in the defensive zone,doing all that by reacting, not thinking. Those are qualities that I WANT in my winger, but for him they are negatives at center. I think Cozens can be/would be an excellent forchecker (maybe 2nd best on the team only behind Tuch), but he needs to be a winger to do that. As a center, he can't just chase guys into the corner and hound the puck, he needs to be aware of the entire ice. As a winger he doesn't have to worry about that and can just do what he wants to do, and is probably pretty good at. If the Sabres had a press conference and said "We aren't trading Dylan Cozens but he is being permanently moved to wing" I would be 100% happy at that moment. My problem is he is bad, really bad at Center right now. And for the last 2+ seasons the flaws in his game have been apparent at Center. His mistakes without the puck are a result of him playing Center. The good parts and bad parts, game after game, for all to see, are not so bad at wing and terrible at Center. Yet the team...the coach? The GM? The owner? totally refuse to put him at wing. As a matter of fact, when Tage got hurt and couldn't take faceoffs for a few games, Cozens was PROMOTED to center between him and Tuch (and Tage and Tuch proceeeded to have their worst game of the year with him at center, I think they were both a -4 for the game with Cozens). So yeah, it would be great to have him at wing. But someone in the organization (I'm guessing a much higher up) won't allow it. So if they will not play him at wing, then move him.

-Greenway AND Zucker being in the lineup. -Tage and Dahlin both looking healthy and their play/production being at all-pro/all-star levels. -Cozens ice time the last 6 games being below his season average, and McLeod starting to get more ice time. Now, it looks like if you get those things this team plays a lot better. The questions of course: --If good veteran play is so important, why didn't they bring in another one when they have the money? --If Dahlin getting hurt can derail the entire team so badly, why not use that money to bring in another Vet d-man? --Why does it take every coaching staff so long to realize Cozen's limitations...and even they why is he the first one get 'gets minutes back' when someone is hurt? That is about the same time Tage was playing though his arm/wrist/shoulder (whatever it was) injury too, I think?

Yes, they do fall into a defensive shell, it appears they rest too far back. I'd say that is most of it. But at the same time, they haven't had as good of goaltending this year as last. UPL has been better the past month it seems, and so is their record. When they were blowing a lot of late game leads, part of it was a a lot of soft-ish goals getting let in. UPL's numbers are "OK", but when you break them down, its not just his save percentage is lower because he is seeing more high quality shots this year. But most metrics I can find, he is seeing 'about' the same number of shots per game as last year, and even 'about' the same number of high danger chances. The difference is this year his 'high danger' save percentage is almost 50 points lower than it was last year. Actually, when I look at the numbers, he faced slightly MORE high danger chances last year than he is this year. Even all high danger chances aren't the same....I get that, but in terms of shots faced from the slot, the team is doing SLIGHTLY better this year limiting those than last year. Again, not his fault totally, the team in front of him needs to get better, but if he would be allowing less soft goals this year, playing more like he did last year, this team would have a number of additional wins.

McLeod is clearly the better overall player now. And he does have nice hands on some of his goals. I'd like to experiment and see McLeod take Cozens spot on the Powerplay, see how it goes. Overall, Cozens hasn't been that 'bad' to me the last 5-10 games. Now, is that because we don't notice the bad plays because we are happy with winning 5 of the last 6? or is the fact they have won 5 of the last 6 in large part because he's not making as many dumb plays? Last night, for one game, Cozens underlying metrics/analytics were REALLY good....was that a function of him just playing with a motivated Greenway on his line? The Nashville game, he played with Krebs, and Cozens looked to play some wing with Krebs often patrolling the center of the ice, and their metrics were also really good. Most of the previous 4-5 games before that, Cozens was centering Zucker and Tuch, and some games the analytics were good, some games they weren't. Maybe, MAYBE his play without the puck is turning the corner? That would be a start of something, but at the same time, does him playing better without the puck mean his offense goes away? I mentioned his underlying defensive analytics and his play without the puck show a definite improvement over the last 10 games. But at the same time, is offense has basically vanished. Is it a choice where he gives you one or the other.... but not both?

The good news is, for the most part, D-men often hit the prime years a bit later than Forwards. Sure there are some exceptions, but an elite forward is in their prime from ages 23-29 usually, while many Elite D-man don't even round into form until 24-25 and it lasts until their early 30's. So if they can round this team into shape quickly, they won't be wasting all that much of his prime years. I don't think the original poster wanted to say to subtract it...as a matter of fact he referenced it. He said something like...play close to .500 hockey, then go into a bit tailspin, then play .500 after it.

Well, this is now 5 wins in the last 6.....just a little too late for this season.

what movie?

Sabres so far this season: 1st period: 67 goals scored, 41 allowed, +26 (best differential in the league) 2nd period: 54 goals scored, 70 allowed, -16 (tied for worst in the league) 3rd period: 51 goals scored, 71 allowed, -20 (2nd worst diffential in the league)

Tuch is having a bad year on the PP.

Sabres outscoring the Rangers 13-4 this year through 2 1/3 games.

And the dreaded goaltender change...usually bad news for this team.

Watched part of the pens-Caps game earlier, they put up the graphic about how the Sabres and Caps were tied for the most goals in the first period of any teams in the NHL..... Well, Sabres are pulling away. They are the presidents trophy of the first period this season.

I enjoyed watching some of the games, and I'm glad they had the tournament, but personally I'm happy NHL hockey is back. I really wish an international tournament like this could be done before the season, not during it, but that is not how they want to do it I guess.

And can go to the corners and chase loose pucks. And can finish a check deep into the corner and not have to worry about being the center as the first one back to denend the rush. And not have to worry about distributing the puck whe he has it in the slot, because he simply has zero ability to do that. He has the ability to do that obviously. I think he would enjoy wing better too.

Watched them with the wife last night. Really happy with them, my opinion much better than season 2.

I don't think its getting old for 2 simple reasons: 1.) he is here and continues to play at center 2.) He is very bad in that role. He's a bad player. The team is losing because of his play. For all the excuses about the position he is in, the team and management around him, for the most part the other 20+ players are not hurting the team as much as he is. The complaining will continue, and will be justified to many of us in that he contiues to hurt the team. Until his play gets DRAMATICALLY better, or he is no longer here, the complaining will contiue...and it is justified, after all this is a message board where we talk the most about the very best,and very worst parts about the team. I would say the complaining about management is getting just as the complaining about Cozens. But if we don't talk about the things about this team that are bad, we may as well just shut down the forum for the rest of the season.

If that option was on the table, I'd do it. Although I'd like to see what else was available. I am fearful that the league-wide value of Cozens may be a lot less than many of us think/hope.

I am surprised by Power being so low. Not because he's having a great year, just we keep hearing on the broadcast of how well he is doing offensively even strength. McLeod I'm not surprised at. I really think, overall, he is close to one of the top 5 players on this team. Hes contributing as well offensively as you can reasonably expect from a 3rd liner....but most of the time he is very responsible away from the puck. Cozens and Quinn though, every set of numbers i look at say those 2 guys are sinking this team. Take Cozens and Quinn off this team, replace them with 'average' players and they are probably in a playoff position. As I posted yesterday showing Quinn's numbers are considerably better when he is not playing with Cozens. Half of his ice time is with Cozens.....half is without Cozens, and while he doesn't have a ton of goals, his metrics are close to 'even' without Cozens, compared to Quinn having some of the absolute worst analytics in the entire league this year with Cozens.

As much as I complain about Cozens non stop, I'd be good, as a matter of fact happy, to keep him on this team if he was permanently moved to wing. If he gets traded and the team he gets traded to puts him on wing, i'll be pretty upset the Sabres haven't done that here. I agree with you on Power. I'm not 100% sure he's going to be 'top tier', but If you forced me to bet whether he would be good enough to be considered a top 10 D-man in the league or not...I would bet yes. I think its going to take a couple years though. I wonder if the key for Quinn is just getting him away from Cozens being his center. If you look at the advanced stats this year, Quinn has played even strength with and without Cozens for about the same number of minutes. Quinn's Corsi% is 7 percent/points higher without Cozens, his Fenwick is about 7.5 percent higher without Cozens, Shots for vs against is over 7 points higher without Cozens, Expected goals are almost 12 points higher without Cozens,Actual goals for vs against are 5 points higher without Cozens. High danger chance percentage is almost 25! points/percent higher without Cozens.And higher danger actual goals are 12.5 points higher when he isn't with Cozens. And when he is without Cozens the Sabres allow a goal about once every 20.73 minutes he is on the ice even strength...but when he is with Cozens they allow a goal once every 15.5 minutes. That is a HUGE difference. Stastically, Its like the difference between a goalie with a GAA of 2.89 vs one at 3.87. Anyone on this team that you want to help, get them off of a line with Cozens.

I agree with your main point. It would be nice to have a 6'4" 230 lb guy that no one wants to fight on this roster...with him being a good player also. But you can still 'play big' without having the measurables. Brad Marchand, Sam Carrick, Vincent Trocheck and Max Domi all can play a 'big' game as agitators and they are all 6'0" or under. Same type of players in Sam Bennet and Miles Wood and they are both under 200 lbs and shorter than a guy like Dylan Cozens. Even Peyton Krebs, all 6 feet tall (being optimistic there) and 180 lbs of him is 3rd among Sabres forwards in hits this year. When he was drafted, he was listed at 5'11" and 170-175 lbs in his draft profile as a 17-18 year old.

lol...people here like to do that, its happened to me. You'll have your argument, have it twisted into its most extreme level.....you'll have it shot down but only when your point is taken at the most extreme.....not the 'meat' of the point you are trying to me. It happens. If you are going to stay around here get used to it.

This is not the only one, but one of my all time favorite Cozens zone exits...

Its pretty well knowing (I think) that Tage plays through a lot of injuries. At least I think he does. I wonder if his 'floating' and 'inconsistent effort' is less of a factor of him just being lazy, and more of a factor of: 1.) he's playing with injuries and/or 2.) He knows is energy 'burst' are best used pushing himself in the offensive end and often times he's a big gassed on the defensive end? Sure, any player who floats a bit would have that as an excuse to use, but it matters more when he is your best/most talented offensive player by miles. As far as the numbers go this season, obviously the Sabres are at their best scoring goals when he is on the ice. But defensively? The Sabres allow slightly less goals at even strength when Tage is out there this season than they do when he's on the bench. They are a LOT better offensively, and even slightly better defensively when he is on the ice.

From what I have seen, Statistically Cozens being 'on the ice' in terms of advanced analytics doesn't really help or hurt the team. He's a non-factor as far as does he help or hurt the other 4 guys on the ice. The issue is he is wasting that spot in terms of his pure production. Of all the forwards over the last few years across the entire league that have as much PP time as Cozens (there are a bit over 100 players with significant minutes on the PP over the last 3 years), he is dead last in terms of goals, and in the bottom 2 or 3 in terms of PP points. So yeah, his usage on the PP is baffling. He's on every single powerplay and he gets 1 PP goal every 28 games. Take Greenway or even call up Brett Murray, have those guys stand in front of the net as a screen and they would probably get more PP goals just by deflections going in off of them. -Edit- With his last PP goal, he is no longer last. Out of 102 forwards with over 750 minute of PP ice time over his career, Cozens is not 101st out of 102 in terms of PP goals. Ryan Strome has 1 less, but I think that doesn't even count as Strome has a LOT more assists than Cozens and less chance for goals because he is used on the point a lot, basically playing on the PP as the 2nd d-man. Want to count PP total points? Again, he is 101st out of 102 guys there. On a side note about Wing vs Center for Cozens....Natural Stat Trick has Cozens playing 28minutes and 2 seconds at wing this year 5 on 5 (with Krebs at center for all of that time). In that time on the ice even strength, the team allowed one goal...so 1 goal allowed every 28.0 minutes. At center Cozens has 676 minutes and 29 seconds even strength at Center this year. 1 goal allowed every 18.3 minutes. That is a big difference...although a very small sample size. I'd give him a few games/weeks at wing with Krebs and see if those numbers continue. Get him off the PP, put him at wing with Krebs and see how it goes. For reference, the team as a whole allows about 1 even strength goal every 21.9 minutes.

Some of us have been saying that for.....2 years now? Take a look at some of the Sabres "Worst" D-men over the last 2 seasons: Connor Clifton: in 442 minutes on ice where Dylan Cozen is numbers are CONSIRABLY worse than his numbers in the 1200+ minute with ANYONE else other than Cozens out there. Clifton Corsi% with Cozens: 43.71 (Awful), without Cozens 49.67(about average.) Fenwick% with Cozens 43.47 (awful), without Cozens 49.42 (about average). Shotsfor% with Cozens 44.27 (awful), without Cozens 49.12 (close to average). The most important analytic, actual goals for vs allowed % with Cozens 46.34..... without Cozens 55.05 (a really good number). Even strength, Clifton is a minus player when sharing the ice with Cozens. In over 1200 minutes where Cozens is not on the ice, he is a +11 even strength over the last 2 years.. This year a goal is scored against the Sabres every 16 minutes when Clifton is on the ice with Cozens. When Clifton is on the ice with ANYONE else this year, a goal is scored once every 26 minutes. How about the last 2 seasons combined? a goal allowed every 20 minutes with Cozens, without Cozens its every 26.5 minutes. Clifton, Bryson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, they all show considerably better numbers similar to the above. If you take out last year and look just at the smaller sample size of this year, the numbers are similar. The only 2 guys that I found that are slightly different are Power and Jokijarju. Their advanced numbers are more 'even' with and without Cozens and Quinn, but still not better. Look.....we don't need analytics to know that there are a group of forwards, led by Cozens and Quinn, that don't know how to play in their own end and hang the D-men out to dry every single game, almost every single shift if given the opportunity. The mistakes are visible to the naked eye and they happen alot with those 2 compared to even the rest of the forwards. What the advanced numbers DO show us is that, in some pretty large sample sizes, the numbers show that the team is a lot better....a POSITIVE team, probably a playoff team when 3-4 forwards are removed from the equation. As you mentioned....take Cozens and Quinn off of this team, and even our 2nd and 3rd pair D-men are pretty darn near good enough to be a playoff level 2nd or 3rd pair. A good veteran 2nd pair D-man would help this team a lot. What would help it more? Cozens and Quinn removed from this team and replaced with guys....even 'lesser talented' guys who play just AVERAGE without the puck. My opinion is that with just those 2 changes this would be a playoff team, and most of the analytics show that is probably true and supported by a lot of the numbers.