mjd1001

I realize I'm responding to an older post but here goes: There might be more opportunity on the big club than we think: Some of these guys could be ready next year, but some may need a couple years to be fully ready for the NHL. We might be looking for them to 'get a spot' in 1-3 years from now -Tuch is signed for 2 more years. He is the one guy up front i really, REALLY want them to re-sign, but at what cost? I hope he is back, I THINK he will be back, but in 2-3 years from now you never know. -Mitts. What are you paying him and what does he want. $6m? $7m? $8m? Again, I think he is LIKELY to be back, but as this team approaches the cap, you may find out that what he wants doesn't fit into your long term plans in terms of dollars spent. -Cozens. Signed long term. Young (should get better). But he is awful in his own end, he doesn't penalty Kill. He never has produced on the PP. He NEEDS to score 25-30+ goals per season to be of value to this team and other than last year..well, lets see if he can turn his game around. -Skinner, he's here for 3 more years, but that is just 3 years, and the last year or two of that, will he by then be seeing a diminished roll? Remember some of these young prospects may not be ready for 2-3 years. -Quinn, Peterka, Benson, and Krebs. Promising signs from most of them, but what if one (or a couple) hit a ceiling and never develop into more than a 10-15 goal guy. Id probably not want that in my top 6, so if that happens there could be more spots we aren't counting on now. So to summarize, you are going to seen need an entire 4th line, within 3 years an eventual Skinner replacement, POSSIBLY (hopefully not) but possibly a replacement for Mitts and/or Tuch in the next couple years...and Greenway is basically an interchangeable part. You hope you never ever get a trade demand or a long term/career altering injury, lets hope that doesn't happen here, but those things DO happen too.

I understand your bigger point, but up through that game Cozens has 7 points through 11 games, just over a 50 point pace. Since then he has 12 points in 22 games, about a 45 point pace. He hasn't been setting the world in fire recently, and honestly he wasn't even before he got hurt.

He is off to a good start. Better offensively than I thought. Yet, while he has 10 points (5 goals) in 3 or so weeks there he has already been on the ice for 13 goals against, he's a minus player. Not that +/- is a perfect stat, but it isn't as useless as some people think, when he is on the ice the other team is better than his team. If he keeps scoring at his current rate and ends up with 30+ goals then it will probably be a good signing for Detroit. I just look at his all around game and think, that is the OPPOSITE of the type of player the Sabres need. There are some that love Kane, that think of him as a hometown guy and probably WOULD go to more games if he were hear. Others feel the opposite. To me, one of the biggest problems if not THE biggest problem with this team is how the forwards play in their own end. They need 2-3 vets who know how to do that in order to actually do it AND to set an example for the younger guys (for whatever that is worth). The absolute, definitive WORST player to add to this team now is a forward who is bad, or doesn't like playing in his own end.

This team has problems, most teams do. People pick what they want to complain about, some want a different coach so its his fault, some want the young guys up from Rochester, some want more veterans, some say the D is bad, some say its Adams fault for having bad goaltending.....but ultimately if the first line (and Cozens) do what you expect them to, this team would be fine. Obviously everything else could have been the exact same last night but if you got production from your first line, you win. They didn't. For all the problems this team has MOST of the change from last year is the missing production from Thompson and Cozens from last year. If they were doing what they did last year, your PP is a lot better and you have a lot more goals.

Lots of reasons for production and lack of, but I haven't looked at the Sabres goals per 60 in a while. One of my favorite stats...how many goals per 60 minutes of play even strength...basically tells you who is making the most production out of the time they are given on the ice. Looked at the Sabres forwards (excluding anyone with only a handful of games): The top 5 forwards for the Sabres in goals per 60: 1. Peterka 2. Thompson 3. Skinner 4. Tuch 5. Benson The bottom 5 forwards in goals per 60 so far: Worst: Krebs 2nd worst: Girgensons 3rd worst: Jost 4th worst: Greenway 5th worst: Cozens Of course that leaves VO, Mitts, and Okposo in the middle Benson a bit surprising to me. Its not automatic that he gets more goals with more ice time, but I'm ready to give him that chance. His goals per 60 is 1.26. That would pretty much put him on the top 5 on this team any of the last few years. I'd want to see his ice time bumped up and see if he can continue at that pace.

This is my go to thing right now. Many times I'll watch replays of the goals allowed, online its great to see replay from different angle and you can slow it down frame-by-frame. Often times I have posted what I saw on each goal allowed for some games, I started that last year about mid season and have done it for about half the games this year. What I see is the third...its the positioning in the D-zone that is killing them: -The D-men on this team are not great, but as I posted in other thread, they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. When you watch some replays, they look like they make awful decisions, but often times they are caught between what they SHOULD be doing and what they might have to change to doing because the forwards are the worst I have ever seen in their own D-zone. -They pretty much all make mistakes. Don't confuse Okposo's exerience with him knowing what he is doing back there. Cozens is probably the worst on the team, he abandons his man and leaves GAPING zone open in his own zone when he chases a puck into a spot a Sabres D-man is already there (and he does this over and over and over and never learns). Krebs and Peterka like to wave their stick at guys when even the slightest bit of contact would distrupt a play. Skinner doesn't make many mistakes in the D-zone but that is because he tries to spend as little time there as possible. The young guys kinda 'float' around like they don't know where they need to be. Thompson and Tuch are OK but make some mistakes. The only semi-regular that really doesn't make many mistakes in his own zone is Girgensons, but he's not on the ice all that much. Mitts has gotten better, I see less instances of him making mistakes in the D-zone than I did last year. Oh, and Olofsson? As much as he doesn't do much to disrupt plays, he is one of the lesser liabilities in his own zone among forwards. Cozens can chase pucks and dig in the corners and hit people, but when he leaves the spot he should be, he leaves an open zone for an opposing player to jump right in and take a wide open shot. VO doesn't do the 'hard work' but he occupies those prime zones by just existing there, often times not allowing an opposing player to get to those areas. He doesn't "Do much" but he doesn't make mistakes. Its like a DB playing Zone defense in football. you don't have to make a great breakup of a pass, you just have to 'be' where the QB wants to throw the ball, and by being there you prevent a completion from that part of the field. Again, the D-mean aren't all that bad, its just they have to cover for themselves AND have to be aware of what the forwards are leaving open.

Sabres first, Bills during the intermissions of the Sabres game, Bills after the game ends. Of course, that all depends on the scores of both games. If they Sabres start losing big time, it'll likely be over to the Bills.

I had a game on again about a week ago. Maybe I am overestimating the times it happened, but I know a LOT Of times after one team scored, the other team takes teh ball....dribbles it up court almost intentionally at a slow walking pace. That drives me crazy. NBA classic? the games I remember from a little kid were the opposite, fast breaks all the time, and a lot more full court press than I saw now.

I used to love the NBA as a little kid. I was at the end of the Bird and Johnson era (remember it a little but not much) but on weekends if the NBA was on, I was watching it. Stopped for a while and a few years ago I tried it again. I'm trying to not be an 'old guy' here, but the game is WAY different and a lot worse. it seems to me that 90% of the time the ball is just being walked up the court really slow...then they take a little while to set up the half court game, attempt an isolation and the only play is really within a few seconds of the shot clock going off. Where is the pressure in the backcourt to make guys work a bit and tire them out? On the rare occasion I DO see that, it seems like a half hearted attempt. I'm not one of those guys that hates the NBA and hates basketball, because I used to love it...but when I watch a game now, it is just SO BORING! I think it is truly the sport that you can skip anything up until the last 5 mintutes of the game and just watch that and see what you need to...and even then half the games are over by 5 minutes left.

If 'run and gun' is what they are good at, then go for it. It doesn't fix the PP woes though, and a large part of their scoring deficit is the PP. By this time last year they had 37 pp goals. this year they have 14. last year at this time they had 137 total goals. This year they have 103. So they are down 34 goals (basically a goal a game from last year). But the majority of those are PP goals. 23 of the 34 goal shortcoming is PP ( almost 70 percent). So yeah, I'll take the other 30 percent if it is there....but 'run and gun' does nothing to fix pp scoring, and the vast majority of this teams lack of scoring is due to the shortfall on the PP.

1.) Fun game 2.) When this team is healthy they are a LOT better than when they were messed up early this year. 3.) After ANY big win in the past 2 seasons, I thought to myself "hey, they might be ready to turn this around". I'm just not there tonight.

Agree on most of it. D-men being young, well, when you are basically saying/hoping that Dahline, Power, Samuelsson, and Jokiharju are going to be your top guys, there aren't many minutes left for anyone else. On the forwards though, you know I agree with that, the issue is, again, if you bring in a vet guy, who's spot does he take the place of? Plus the key is you need a vet who knows how to play a full game. Okposo....this was brough up in another thread but he has never been on a team that played a good 200 foot game. As much as he is a veteran leader, I don't think he knows how to play defensively from up front. When was the last time we had a forward on this team that was somewhat productive with EXPERIENCE on a team that played a good 200 foot game?

100% + agree. THIS is the single biggest problem on this team. I know many have stopped replying to some of my comments because I'm not really saying much else, but the D-men are not the problem on this team, nor is goaltending (they both could be BETTER, but they aren't the problem). How the forwards pay in their own zone is the worst I have ever seen, worse than the Sabres tank teams, I think worse than some college teams I have watched. If I was a D-man on this team I'd probably look really bad too because at times I'd be frozen in space, looking like I don't know what I'm doing because I am just in shock at how little support I get from the front 3 or just how many times the forward leave gaping, wide open holds in the slot for opposint teams to just walk right into. There are countles replays of goals allowed this year (and last) where the D-men get blamed, but when you break them down, the forwards either aren't there at all, or the forwards are just skating in circles on their own...and the D-men have to make a choice....cover their own guy..or step up and cover the slot or faceoff circle (prime scoring spots) where the forwards SHOULD be but aren't. On THIS team, the D have to make a choice...if they guess and make the wrong choice...or they try to straddle both responsibilities but not do either one perfectly, it is THEM that look bad when its really the forwards hanging them out to dry. If the reason for the forwards being so bad at this is coaching, then by all means, bring someone in who will fix this ONE aspect of the team. But if its just the guys not 'getting it', then those forwards are the problem with the team (and Tage and Cozens lack of scoring). Its not the play of the D-men by themselves, not the goaltending, and not any other aspect of coaching other than the forwards being possibly the worst team ever at defending in their own zone and knowing where to be. Scoring on this team may be down, mostly due to injuries and Tage and Cozens drop in production, and effort MAY become a problem as some players just get frustrated, but the lack of 'effort' will simply be a sign that is caused by the frustration at the lack of results due to losing mostly because they have zero clue how to defend and cover open opponents in their own zone.

When he is healthy, Tuch is one of the best forecheckers in the league, certainly the best on the team. Its not all about 100% full speed ahead either...he can do that, but he seems to know how to position himself and take angles on the forecheck. To me Tuch gets a pass on any Defensive zone mistakes (honestly he doesn't make as many as most other forwards on this team do anyway) because he is the guy I want on the forecheck all the time.

I apparently will die on the hill disagreeing with this. I'm not sure where they "cozens is good" crowd gets that from, because he skates hard and will hit people? The reality is, he isn't producing offensively and he is a disaster, one of the worst in the league in his own zone. I have done the work, on goals allowed where he was on the ice many times, I'd even say most times, he vacates a zone, he leaves a player, he chases the puck into the corner when a D-man is already there and the spot he left is now wide open for an opposing player to step into. Seriously, I have posted many times after watching replays...and even posted screenshots showing where he is. He did that a lot last year, he is doing it a lot this year (dozens of times) and he just doesn't learn or change. He is bad, he is AWFUL, he is just like a dog that only knows how to chase the puck and can be easily fooled by any other team into getting out of position. He has to score 25-35 goals at least just to even out how bad he is defensively. The proof is there. Watch how he defends in his own zone on goals allowed. I (and others have pointed it out). NHL.com has replays of all the goals this team has allowed from numerous angles. Unless he changes, No way is he a good overall player, right now I can't see how he isn't anything but bad for this team most of this year.

He seems to have regressed from last year, I will agree with that. Is it that he is dealing with a nagging injury? If so, he might be a guy who is ALWAYS dealing with a nagging injury so that doesn't help. Does he/did he have the Dylan Cozens disease where we all thought he was better than he is because of one 'early career year'? Possibly. I still think this D-unit mostly suffers from how bad the forwards are in their own end. I'm not an expert on the fancy stats, but I think even they might be making the D look a little worse than they are many times, as the forwards are really non-existent in their own end and the D often have to make decisions on who to cover/who to leave open on the other team because the forwards aren't helping, and that might make the 'fancy stats' on them look even worse.

Dahlin is the only guy that want here for sure. Tuch is close, he can be good and has ties to the area that I like. Peterka and R. Johnson may or my not be very good/great but I like them and want to see what the bring. Power I think WILL be good but right now he's not, will take time with him (maybe a couple of years) Everyone else can go for the right deal. Mitts (what will he want to resign, probably too much imo) and Cozens (most overrated player on the team by the fanbase), I'd be shopping them to see what I can get for those 2.

I'm tired of hearing people just instinctively complain about a lack of effort or saying the Defensemen are awful. That is not the problem this team has. The Defensemen can be bad SOME of the time, but the biggest issues this team has is not challenging shooters (waving sticks at them) but even worse is having Zero knowledge of defensive zone coverage (mostly by the forwards). Of the last 20 goals the Sabres allowed I have watched and rewatched the replays over and over, and on well over half of them (maybe 3/4 of them) there is a shooter or a defensive spot on the ice that is WIDE OPEN and totally un-accounted for. That isn't the Defensmen being awful (although I'm getting there with Power's play), that isn't lack of effort (maybe forwards not hustling back)....that is a pee-wee level of knowledge of how to play positionally in your own zone. Dahlin isn't playing like an all-star, but he does seem to be the best player on this team. If I was him I would be PO'ed to an unreal degree with the way the forwards on this team are playing.

Ok here goes: 1st goal allowed: Power obviously with the giveaway in the corner is the issue, but again with the forwards. They make the D look a LOT worse than they are. Power is in one corner, Joki is in the other hopefully getting the pass from Power which doesn't make it. But even at that point, there are 3 Columbus guys down low with just the 2 sabres d-men. Where are the forwards? hanging around near the blue line. Even if you think your D-man has the puck with no pressure (He didn't), you can't allow an outnumbered situation down low, ESPECIALLY when both D-men are in the corner. No coverage in the center of the ice, No effort or awareness at all by the forwards to cover the single most important area of the defensive zone to cover. 2nd goal allowed: Forwards actually initially had good coverage on the Columbus rush, but then possible lack of communication. Goal scorer ends up behind the net by himself after Okposo and Samuelsson bump into each other. Samuelsson is kinda covering the guy in the face off circle, Okposo is ready to go to him but while they are figuring that out, No one sees the guy right behind the net wide open with no one around him. 3rd goal allowed: I put that mostly on Johnson. Like usual, when the Sabres maintain position in the PK box they do not get in trouble. Johnson ,for some reason pressures the point and leaves the guy down low WIDE OPEN. All the goals, there was a defensive breakdown where a Columbus player or a spot on the ice was left WIDE OPEN...again, and again, and again this happens with this team all the time.

I give it to Marv because, I can't really distinguish between the two....I think they both were very good, not great coaches. Marv has the better resume and he was probably a perfect 'fit for that team'. As far as QB goes, I go with Allen. I think Allen is top 3 in the league, and a CASE can be made for him being the best at times (maybe not a great case, but I'll at least listen to that argument). Kelly, I never thought he was close to the best QB in the league at any time, and a few spots behind where I think Allen is compared to the rest of the league. Maybe it's their 'ceiling' in my view. When Allen has is BEST game, no one in the league is as good as him. Best game Josh Allen vs Best game Mahomes I might give that to Allen (in the Mahomes Vs Allen debate to me, the problem is Allen's best game might be better but, over the course of a season he has more average-to-bad games than Mahomes so Mahomes 'averages out' to be better than Allen). Kelly on the other hand, Kelly's BEST game wasn't the best in the league. Marino at his best I thought was better than Kelly at his best..Randall Cunningham at his best equaled or beat Kelly at his best. Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, all at their best were equal to or better than Kelly. Its just their teams may or may not have been better than the Bills of the time. Just my opinion.

I'm not really worried about him getting injured again. I'm just afraid it is going to take a long while for him to get back to where he was, let alone progress to being better. I hope its not the case, but I can see him being kinda just like a body skating around out there and not contributing much for the rest of the year. I would have really liked to see him with a 2 week conditioniong stint in Rochester. But, the team knows more than I do about his condition.

The difference between this years team and last year, honestly, is scoring. They are about the same rank allowing goals, they are much, MUCH worse scoring. The lack of scoring is due to: 1.) injuries. Tuch, Tage, now Skinner producing CLOSE to last years 'pace' but missing games. 2.) Tage and Cozens scoring rate being down. You can't control injuries. You CAN (maybe) or should be able to rely on 2 top payers NOT taking huge steps back. To me that is the main problem with this team. Not coaching (directly) not the Defense (they are what they are), but the reason they are worse is scoring, and most of that shortfall is from Tage and Cozens. Going forward: I'm 'kinda' happy with the future prospect of Levi and UPL in net. Maybe not great but no longer a problem medium to long term. Defense. Same as above. Power needs to and probably will get better. With Dahlin, Samuelson, Power, and Jokiharju/Johson, you have a solid top 4. Your bottom 2 guys hopefully won't play much and its hard to get them to be great. Up front. This is the weakness of the team in my opinion. Not coaching, not the D, not goaltending. Those guys MUST score more than they are (Cozens, Tage, looking at you) and they need to be better in their own end. I have posted on here time after time goals are scored against them that the D-mean may look like they are clueless, but often when you break down the replay the REASON the D look clueless is because they are hung out to dry by the forwards who ARE clueless. I am very upset, like many of us, that it is like this year is another 'wasted' year. However, I think with the tandem in net, the roster in front of those guys, this can, and will be a very good team. Its only a couple things that need to change: -You are paying Cozens $7 million per year, He is dreadful in his own zone, maybe one of the worst in the league, he has to be better there and he has to double his scoring production. -You need Tage to get back to CLOSE to his production from the last 2.5 years. -The young forward need to learn a defensive system, where to be in their own end....how to work WITH the D-men. Do the 3 above things, and this IS a playoff team with a pretty high ceiling. I didn't anticipate the top 2 things happening, and the 3rd....I didn't relize how bad the young forwards were, they simply have to get better (that is the ONLY thing I fault this coaching staff with, the way the young guys up front play in their own end).

If you look at the PK earlier in the year, the preferred unit out there was Johnson and Sameulsson on D, and Thompson and Greenway up front. What does that have in common? 4 of the tallest guys with the best reach on the team. For being good at PK, on the surface I think it is a good coaching decision, here is why: When you watch the Sabres allowing chances on the PK or getting scored on, it is MOSTLY due to guys getting out of position. The PK 4 man 'box' often becomes less of a box and they leave their spot...it becomes a rhombus...a trapezoid...then eventually a triangle or even a straight line. when guys get that far out of position, that is when the opposing team gets open shots and good looks and scores.... BUT, take a look at when you had Johnson and Samuelson on D and Thompson and Greenway on forward....Between their height/reach and the length of the stick they use, they cover a LOT of territory by just holding their position. They don't have to chase...they can stay in their zone and close of passing lanes and even tip passes and clear the zone. They are more likely to maintain that 4 man PK box.....they DID do that...and they ARE/Were effective penalty killers. To get those guys out there (or other guys with a long reach/discipline) is much more effective than guys who chase the puck. Of course as you said, Thompson on the PK though brings other issues...he is getting ice time/getting tired when he isn't using that to provide offense (although he DOES have 2 shorthanded goals I think). And he is exposing himself to shots from the point that can hit him.

In terms of point percentage, right now Jersey has the 8th spot in the conference with 59% of available points. That is a 97 point pace. Sabres, want to make the playoffs, right how shoot for 98 points. 50 games left, that means you need to aim for 69 points. Simply, 69% of available points. To get the 8th spot. Last year, Carolina was close, but do you know how many teams got 69% of available points (or more) for the Season? ONE, Boston. The year before that, 4 teams did. So basically, starting tomorrow, Buffalo has to play like a top 5 team in the NHL, every game, till the end of the year, to give them a good shot at a wildcard. Its VERY hard to get behind this team or show much interest when we are less than half way, only about 2 months into the season and at this point already. Maybe we can HOPE for playoffs in 2025? But hey, Ottawa has been thought of to be the 'next big team' on the rise, and we finished ahead of them last year and are still ahead of them this year.

I'm not one at all for making change 'just because' or 'to see what happens'. But I'm starting to go to the point of swinging on a big trade. Like a BIG trade. I'm not sure who would be avaiable, but a forward in their prime (24-28 years old) who is known as a hard worker, puts up consistenly 25+ goals per year, and has been on a winning team (preferably one where the forward play good Defense). If you have to trade a Roster guy AND 2 of your top prospects, so be it. Savoi, Kulich, and Mitts or even Cozens? go ahead. Why? I am more and more convinced, despite the shutout last night, that this team doesn't know how to play team defense and NO coaching staff is going to get it through their heads. Vet guys like Okposo and Girgensons? Honestly, they never were on a team where THEY were even taught how to play team defense. Maybe you don't even need to pay that much, but how about Nazim Kadri or Lindholm from Calgary? Both of them?