mjd1001

Ok, here is the thing about UPL, especially tonight. He is facing tougher shots than he should be due to defensive breakdowns. BUT, that doesn't mean EVERY goal is excusable. If your D-man has a blatant giveaway, or a guy gets by your defense and a cross ice pass hits him in the stick. the goaltender CAN on occasion get over quick enough to make a save. For numbers sake, lets say the last 20 times the Sabres in front of him has basically 'hung UPL out to dry'...that doesn't mean that 10 goals are expected or excusable. A good goalie might stop 60-70% of those PRIME shots. It seems like UPL is allowing more than that. I can't blame UPL as the reason most of the goals scored on the team tonight. However, I can say if he was better (not below average) he would have one or two more saves on those tough shots than he does.

No. A soft goal example would be the many, and I mean MANY times UPL was in net the past year or so, and in the game day threads I pointed out, too many times, that UPL was set, in position, facing the shooter, didn't have to move laterally, and a shooter took a non-screened shot from 15 (or so) feet out that got by him. I hardly made those posts 2 years ago, but all of last year and already a few times this year he's let those in.

I think it is more on goaltending that some thing, but in my opinion, the problems with this team allowing goals are, in the following order: 1.) First and foremost, the forwards are still awful, absolutely terrible (as a unit) helping out in their own end. 2.) Goalies let in too many soft goals 3.) Some bad plays by the D-men. For it it is definitly in that order...still...just like last year..and the year before...

Which is why, when it gets brough up, I'm not in favor of firing Ruff and thinking it will fix everything or anything. 1.) Its the roster management more than the head coach that hurts this team. 2.) If the Ownership/management doesn't change how they do things, what 'good' coach will want to come here and work under the conditions that exist?

Yes, awful defense causes more goals against, but this team has goalies that RARELY "steal" games for them (yet it seems like backups do that to the Sabres quite often) and other than the win vs Ottawa (which was probably the worst NHL goatending game I have ever seen by their goalie), The sabres goalies (eye test) allow way too many soft goals, compared to the teams they play. It makes just as much sense to me saying good goaltending can MAKE a defense look better than it is, just as much as its true the other way around. In reality, those expressions are probably a wash. As far as every goalie we bring in starts well but regresses..that is for sure not always the case. In the most recent few seasons playing behind a lot of the current players: UPL into his 4th 'full' season with the Team. He had the worst GAA and 2nd worst save percentage in his 'first' season, where he started 32 games (and he wasn't exactly a rookie, he was already in his 23/24 year old season) -Levi, he might be the best example of what you are saying..he started out pretty well, but the more games he played in Buffalo, the worse he seemed to get. -Last year James Reimer was up and down the entire year. Good month, bad month, good month, bad month, but the first half of his games were about equal to the 2nd half of his games. -Eric Comrie was bad in both years in Buffalo with a GAA and save percentage close in both seasons. Again, the first half of his games were just about as bad as the 2nd half of his games. -Craig Anderson actually had slightly better numbers in his 2nd year with the team compared to his first year. -Tokarski was much like Reimer in his one year with the Sabres..good month, bad month, good month, bad month...but overall his peformance wasn't any better in the first half of his starts compared to the 2nd half of them. -With Ellis this year, its hard because he has played so little games. But he has had an above .900 save percentage 3 times in 7 games: His first game, his 4th game (the middle game of his starts) and his 6th game. Spread out pretty evenly. -Lyon has definitely tailed off as the season has gone on, but besides his shutout, his next best game was probably his 33 save effort vs Utah, one of his more recent starts.

I'd much rather have them trade him and get a big return out of it...but I don't think the return on a trade matters as much anymore. If this team has a GOOD GM/Front office eventually, the $10m in cap space you will have by him not being here is likely to be more valuable than a mid-to-late 1st round pick (and what that may become in 3-4 years) and a mid-level prospect.

If the country cared about and paid more attention to the NHL, "Pegula" would be a verb right now.... When a new owner buys a team, the local media and fanbase can say "Just don't Pegula things up" When an owner makes big time changes, hires an uknown coach or GM (stuff like that) and not everyone agree with them "He's going to Pegula the franchise up" Alas, the majority of the USA doesn't know the Pegula chapter of the Sabres story for that to likely catch on.

He may have bought the team in Feb 2011, but the team from Feb 2011 to the end of the season really wan't "his" team. If was in the offseason he started to take control in a way that impacted the team, roster, and front office. That basically will line up with the peak of that graph. It was very VERY close to the start of the downfall the moment Pegula started to 'exercise' his power as owner.

The coaching staff or becomes GM? He became GM at about the same time on the chart they changed to royal blue...the last dotted line on the right.

Thanks for posting this. You are doing a lot better job explaining it than I can and I agree with most of it. I don't go to analytics first for my opinions. I see something and then I'll try to go to analytics to see if they support what I think I saw. Starting last year, I saw with my eyes that UPL was letting in a lot of bad goals, and all the other Sabres goalies that played besides him weren't much better (althoug it seems like when a goalie has a good week, this forum is quick to annoint him..."He's the #1!") expected goals is not a perfect stat, but it is a LOT closer to perfect than almost everything that has been used over the years. And when someone points out a flaw in the stat because of an individual event, usually those 'individual events' even out over time. Maybe expected goals doesn't give you a good picture over the short term (a game, a couple games) because of those individual events, but those events get smoothed out over time in the numbers. As has been said many times, the Sabres 'bad defense' is factored into the numbers. If is the 'bad defense' that leads to 'good chances against' that cause that expected goals against number to go up. Back to the goalies...None of them are good, UPL has been average-to-downright awful the past 1.5 years or so....that is what MY eye test tells ME, and the numbers back it up.

I like the version of it where someone clearly marked the moment on the graph where Pegula bought the Sabres with a yellow line...

I thought about him being in a contract year this year and the fact that the team isn't doing well. The reason I think it's the initial stages of him showing some signs of age is... When you look at his skating, it's been on a downward trend for 3 to 4 years now.

Looking at the analytics, Since Greenway has been here, he and Tage have played together almost 270 minutes. When they are together, the Sabres score a goal once every 15 minute of ice time. That number is not that bad, its pretty good actually. Maybe Lindy is so frustrated that he is down to making his lines based on a spreadsheet? I'll give it one game to see if it works....not that I have any input and could over-ride the decision anyway. I'm feeling that real world common sense will win out over past analytics and show this is a bad move..but who knows at this point.

Greenway is a below average player who really is only useful penalty killing, he's injury prone and not reliable. But they signed him to an extension for this year and next year a $4m per year, so they are forcing him in there to justify that deal. There was little chance he was going to play more than 60 games in a season. Per game, you are paying him like a 2nd line player when he doesn't even produce like a good 4th liner.

Jordan Greenway. 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 games so far. He can't stay healthy. I'd be worried about him getting more than 15 minute of ice time without breaking. He has 5 goals in his last 72 games. And THIS is who you are even thinking of using on that top line? If I'm Tage, as soon as Adams is done talking to Östlund, I'm going there and demanding a trade away form this team. Lets send Ostund, who has legit been having good games...lets send him down...while giving the offensive powerhouse in Greenway top line minutes and making sure we can keep all 3 of our below average goalies instead. Frustrating.