mjd1001

He most certainly was a major problem. Whether you want to say it was the fault of the organization for the situation they put him in, or the losing just got to him....the REASON may not be all on him, but her certainly was a HUGE problem in why this team was bad. The posts are out there, but he made mistake after mistake, he was a minus player, just about everyone that played with him got worse..etc. etc. I wished it would have worked with him here. He seemed like a nice kid/guy. But they never really tried him at wing and he sunk this entire team playing at center while here.

I really think part of moving Tage to wing was to open up more ice time for McLeod and Kulich. It was about the time Tage moved to Wing that McLeod started to get more ice time. I know Lindy at one point earlier in the year criticized Cozens and Tage's play away from the puck at Center. But since he has moved to wing, I don't see much of a difference in his play. His play away from the puck. His production. His scoring chances. Everything I see is he is pretty much the same. No better, no worse at either position. If that is true, that means you put him in a position that allows you to put OTHER guys where you want them. Tage is giving you the same at Wing or Center? Great, we can move him to wing and give McLeod and Kulich more time at Center then.

I don't think that gets it done. Mind you, I would love for him to accept that. If he did I'd be happy. I just think, especially with the cap going up so much next year and projected for further pretty large increases, he will require a bit more. Thats about 5% of the cap. I think they are going to have to go to about 6%. Especially because the Sabres are sending him a message right now that not only is he not a #3 Center, he's a #2 for sure and currently is getting first line minutes. Its going to be hard for them to offer him a short-ish deal as he enters the prime of his career for 5% of the cap when he is getting used as much as he is, and producing in that role. I don't think hardly any team in the league gets away with 5% of the cap on a 3 year deal for a guy who is getting you close to 20 goals and 50 points in a season, who plays center, is one of your better 2-way guys, and is only 25 years old.

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason. A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts. If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case. Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center. An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points. Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that. Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money. 3rd line players, again, average 35 points. 3rd line players, even on 'good' teams, are usually even players in goal differential or slightly positive. He is way ahead of those productions number and he is a positive goal differential guy on THIS team, that says something. I'm not saying to give him nearly 8.5% of the available cap next year (like you did to Cozens), but throwing out numbers that are only about 4%-5% of the cap I think are crazy low.

James Reimer had glory days? I get your overall point, but it just goes to illustrate how sub-par the Goaltending has been this year with this team.

See,I'd be OK with Mcleod in that position seeing how I think he is pretty good defensively and away from the puck. Now, if you sign him long term and he ends up being a 10 goal, 20 assist guy long term, then you have an issue. I admit that. I just don't think he'd revert to that level.

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league. One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50: https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/. The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy (slightly). As for the conversation of 2nd line vs 3rd line....Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that. No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals. A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below). So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists. If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at. A little somewhat-scientific research. I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average: -Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys) -Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals) -Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals -Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals. So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys. McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year. Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals. The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities. I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c. So what is my point with all of the above? That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40. Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

I know an old thread, but just noticed this: Before the trade deadline, Pettersson: 55 games, 11 goals, 24 assists (82 game pace of 16 goals, 36 assists, 52 points) Since the Deadline, Pettersson: 9 games, 4 goals, 6 assists, (82 game place of 36 goals, 55 assists, 91 points) Not much of an issue to the Sabres anymore, but just interesting to see if he keeps up the newly accelerated pace.

One more positive to look at McLeods game. He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him. There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice. Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense. McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin). McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better. For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference. When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that. So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.

I actually think the opposite on Reacher. Season 1 was good to me, Season 2 not so much. I think the larger cast made it worse. Season 3 so far I think is as good as season one, maybe better.

I'd say about $5m per year with the current cap. With the cap going up, getting signed to $5m per year a year or two ago will be equal to $6m per year next year and the few years after. As for is this a 'career year' or is this a legit step forward with more opportunity? The analytics dept and the pro scouts know more than I do, I'll leave that up to them. I would say I think you can make the case for him being the 4th best player on the team this year...after Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin (put in him the battle for 4th with Zucker) Also, I dont' worry too much about 'overpaying' him. When you go back to the Tage and Cozens contracts, they were paid about 8.6% of the cap the year they were signed. It looks like a good signing for Tage, bad one for Cozens for the Sabres. A 'comparable' contract (same percentage of cap) starting next year would be about $8.2m per year. I don't think he is getting that. If they give him $7.5+ or over, yeah, come back to me and I'll question it, but I don't think things will be in that range. I'm not saying to overpay him just because you can....but if you worry he'll be another 'Cozens', well, then you are never going to pay anyone anymore.

Maybe we have a #1 line (Thompson as the center...or if Thompson is on wing, whoever his center is...it can change)...and then the #2 and #3 centers after that line are basically split. Meaning there is not 'set' #2 or #3 guy. Going into a game the plan is for them to get even ice time, and if one line is playing better, that game they get more ice time and they are the #2 line for that game, but that can change day to day. Who is the #2, or #3 center I think is more of a discusssion for the fans. My opinion is Tage can be Center or Wing. His production, his defensive play..its about the same this season wherever he plays (honestly, I think his numbers this year are slightly better at Center, but whatever). But when you look at Thompson having the ability to play center if needed, and Norris, and Kulich, and Mcleod, and then even Krebs at #4 with a possibility to not be out of place at #3...you have options there to mix and match. Sure, if a good center was available I'd jump at him, but I think this team needs more focus in other areas. Tage/Norris/Kulich/Mcleod/Krebs....mix and match them how you will, you have something to work with there. Now find some better wingers to play with them.

I'll repeat what I have said before....how many minutes do you want/project McLeod to be playing going forward? He has been averaging about 19 minutes per game the last couple months and not doing all that poorly. There are some variations, but when you look around the league, a typical 2nd line player/center gets 17 minutes per game. A 3rd line center gets 14.5-15.5 minutes. Do you want him in the first category or the 2nd? If you are happy with his play and want him to get closer to 17 minutes per game, then he IS your 2nd line center.

I need to see more obviously as many of us do. I didn't focus on him at all, but the little that I did notice him on the ice, it seemed like the team was chasing in their own end and allowing a few chances against when he was on the ice. Again, its only 2 games and limited minutes, and even if that is true it might not be his fault. Just I haven't noticed much positive yet...but i'm hopeful?