mjd1001

Looking at the analytics, Since Greenway has been here, he and Tage have played together almost 270 minutes. When they are together, the Sabres score a goal once every 15 minute of ice time. That number is not that bad, its pretty good actually. Maybe Lindy is so frustrated that he is down to making his lines based on a spreadsheet? I'll give it one game to see if it works....not that I have any input and could over-ride the decision anyway. I'm feeling that real world common sense will win out over past analytics and show this is a bad move..but who knows at this point.

Greenway is a below average player who really is only useful penalty killing, he's injury prone and not reliable. But they signed him to an extension for this year and next year a $4m per year, so they are forcing him in there to justify that deal. There was little chance he was going to play more than 60 games in a season. Per game, you are paying him like a 2nd line player when he doesn't even produce like a good 4th liner.

Jordan Greenway. 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 games so far. He can't stay healthy. I'd be worried about him getting more than 15 minute of ice time without breaking. He has 5 goals in his last 72 games. And THIS is who you are even thinking of using on that top line? If I'm Tage, as soon as Adams is done talking to Östlund, I'm going there and demanding a trade away form this team. Lets send Ostund, who has legit been having good games...lets send him down...while giving the offensive powerhouse in Greenway top line minutes and making sure we can keep all 3 of our below average goalies instead. Frustrating.

Greenway on the top line? Please no...

Except it seems like, at least in the past few years, Pegula hardly makes any appearances at all let alone changes. Its like he got to a certain age and just decided "I'm going to sit back and watch, not do anything" At least that is the impression I get.

The Sabres have a lot of problems, but goaltending is, again, bad. Expected goals is supposed to take into consideration not just shots,but what are considered scoring chance, high danger chances, where the shots were taken from etc. Its basically the quality and quantity of scoring chances translated into how many goals that usually translates to based on the quality of the opportunities. I only went back 20 games, so maybe the number gets worse...but in the last 20 games, the Sabres goalies have allowed MORE goals than the expected goal number 16 times. 16 out of 20 time, the goalies have underperformed the expected goals, which INCLUDES defensive breakdowns in that number.

Tuch SHOULD be a slightly better version of Zucker on a good team going forward into his early 30s....as you said playing 'middle six' minutes. If he can make that adjustment to his game where he doesn't rely on his declining speed. As you said, it doesn't look like this roster would be the best place for that (for the next few years if he stays here, he will be asked to do TOO much, more than he would likely be capable of doing into his 30's).

I think Tuch is still the best winger on this team (I'm couting Tage as a part time center/winger). The team would be worse without him. He's one of the top 25 wingers in the leauge to me RIGHT NOW. But I think he is starting to show the very first hints of 'aging past his prime'. Unless you are a mega superstar (and even some cases with them), we know that MOST forwards (and the averages in the numbers show this) have their peak offense production years between the ages of 24-28. Yeah, some guys hang on to that high level a bit better than others, but once you get to 29-30, your best years are usually behind you (just what the numbers say). This isn't to say they can't have a great/bounce back year once or twice past 30, but normally production has already peaked. So how does this relate to Tuch? Hes 29 now. If the Sabres made the playoffs he woudl be 30 during this years playoffs. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal. -Its only 1/4 season, but to my eye, he seems to be having more 'lapses' where he makes bad plays. A handful of more games compared to the last few years where he's just not as noticable. Not much, but enough to notice. -His numbers: Over the last 3 previous seasons, he averaged 33.4 goals per 82 games and +13.8 per 82 on a negative team. This year, his 82 game pace is 26.3 goals and a +2.9. Not a huge drop, but noticable. His PP numbers are dropping. The last few years he went from 20 PP points, to 11 PP points, to 11 PP points again, and now hes on a pace for 5.8pp points. -His ice time is down. He hasn't been injured this year, but he has the lowest average ice time this year of any other year (or partial year) since he has been in Buffalo. Now for the actual skill based numbers (and remember, he seems to be healthier this year than in the past): His shot speed: 93.4 his first year with the Sabres. Down to 89.2 and 89.7 the past 2 years. This year? 85.1 Top skaing speed: 23.2 mph 3 years ago (when he was 26).....23mph 2 years ago (when he was 27)....22.6mph last year (when he was 28)....and now this year 21.83 this year. In terms of MPH, a drop of more than 1mph is a LOT in the NHL. He is losing speed, that is 100% true. How about his skating "speed bursts over 20mph"? This year 1.25 per game (at age 29). How does that compare to the most recent years? 1.75 per game last year (age 28), and 2.36 per game the previous 2 years (since he was with the Sabres, ages 26-27) -Tuch relies SO MUCH on his speed and skating. His shorthanded breakaway goals. His forchecking (which is the best part of his game). As he loses skating speed, that is going to impact the best part of his game the most. Its staring to happen now. Its only going to get worse as he gets older. Again...Hes 29, going on 30 this season. The FIRST year of any new contract for him has turning 31 at the end of year 1 of that deal. This is not to say he's not one of the better players on the team. But the 'eye test' to me says his game is SLIGHTLY off compared to the past (just slighly), and the more you dig into the numbers, especially his skating, it shows you those numbers are, without a doubt, on a downward trend already. For me it further reinforces that I'd like him back here, but not on a big dollar, long term deal. His "raw skill" numbers in terms of top speed, how often he uses his speed, and his shot are already in clear decline. The production is showing signs of a decline, as are his deeper analytics. If, and I realize this is an "if", the recent trends in his skating and production continue, you might be regretting a $10m+ deal with Tuch...not in 5 to 6 years from now, but possibly in year 2 of the extension.

Tage, simply because the most exciting/fun thing in hockey for me is not a great save, its not a fight, its not a good defensive battle..but rather exciting goals. He's the best on this team at that. Other than that, at this point I don't care.

Its not that I think they don't care. I just think they aren't good enough. Its not that I think Ruff is a bad coach, its just the things he is good at are not a match for this roster. He might be asking them to do the things they can't do. Its not that they totally don't have heart. If anything I think they have gotten better in that part of their game. I think its again, they aren't good enough. The roster isn't good enough, AND the parts that are good don't mesh well with each other. For me that is most of the failings of this team. IF they change the GM, coach, most of the front office, this team will not be good enough to go on a deep run magically. The new guys have to fundamentally change a large part of the roster. -Samuelsson should not have games where he is your best D-men when you have 3 other guys picked in the top 5 overall. -Tuch is a very good winger, but hes not a great one, is more of an analytics darling than how it translates on the ice, and I think he is STARTING to show a tiny bit of a sign of being past his peak because inconsistency is creaping into his game. -Tage is a premier goal scorer. Top 20 talent in the league. He cares, but his still set is NOT one where he can do it alone. He's not a superstar Alpha. -Dahlin is good, very, very good. But he isn't the McDavid of D-men. He's not a generational player. -Their goaltending is average (at best), probably below average. Every guy they have tried over the last few years. -I tried to convince myself Quinn was getting better. He's not. He's bad. A veteran journyman winger might not score as many goals (or maybe he would) but the team would be better with one of those guys instead of Quinn. He is a negative overall when on the ice. This team has some talent. They have some good pieces. But they have too few stars and no truly effective superstars. They aren't good enough, the roster simply hasn't been put together well.

The worst part for me is that something needs to be done, ANYTHING regarding the front office/decision makers. The ONLY thing that isn't OK is to let things go this long and not make a change. If a change was made, we can debate is the new GM the right guy? Was it correct or not to bring in a POHO? Should a bigger purge of the front office or scouting department have happened (50% of the guys gone or 100% gone?) Stuff like that. The only thing this fanbase doesn't want is no action...yet that is the ONLY thing we get. This franchise doens't appear to be going anywhere. A reset is needed, on ice included. Unless this team lucked into a vezina quality goaltender that is. Let say somewhat this team squeeks into the playoffs, then what? Is this roster EVER going to contend for a cup (again, unless they get that Vezina goaltender)? Statistically and at their ages, you are getting "peak" Thompson and Norris. Tuch is at his peak and probably starting to decline. You dont' really have a bunch of 'stars in waiting' that will pick up from the older guys and take this team to the next level.

The 3 goalie thing I think is an issue. You HAVE to move one, dont' sit around and wait for a good deal. From most interviews over the years I have heard with Goalies, either during their career or after their career, they almost always mention as the #1 guy you want work, you want to play games to get into some kind of 'groove', and as a backup, you need to have a different mentality. I think Biron even said a few times there are some guys who are BETTER as backups than they would be as #1's, and some #1's, that no matter how good of an attitude they had, simply would not play as well if they got infrequent starts. Its kinda like with baseball pitchers. Some guys can be releif guys who go in whenver you want them, but other guys almost NEED to be starters. Mentally they want to know what days they will pitch and what days they will have off. Remove them from that role and the may not be as good, let alone they are going to be a lot unhappier with their role. This isn't a video game where your goalies have 'ratings' and they will play to their ratings no matter how often or infrequently you play them. I think its hurting all 3 goalies, and the team, by prolonging this. Sometimes I think this front office thinks they are plugging guys into a video game rather than playing 'real life' hockey. This team, this management causes self-inflicted wounds.

.590 point percentage is what gets you into that last playoff spot in the east right now (96.8 point pace). As of this moment, for the Sabres to get to that level, they have to win the next 9 in a row. 9 wins in a row and you will 'probably' be in 8th in the conference. They are tied for least points in the confernece. They have the worst point percentage in the conference. They have the worst goal differential in the conference. They have lost 4 of their last 6 and this is with them getting mostly healthy. So much for the injury excuse too. This team could be 100 percent healthy, or they could have a record number of injuries...it doesn't seem like it would matter. Either way they would/will finish 10 points out of the playoffs (at least)

No, not what I am saying at all, but if that response makes you feel better about your argument, go for it.

Yeah, and the other 98% of the time UPL plays that I do. Watch means nothing I guess. How about When he allows soft goals. When he gets beat cleanly on non-screened shots from 20 ft out that he should be ready for. When he gets beat to the outside of his pads because he can't get over quick enough. All those times over the past year and a half... Those mean something too. He has been so bad that at some point he has to play exceptional to make up for all of his bad play in the past.