#freejame

Did you watch the game yesterday? What made you think the Bills has two more scoring drives in them? The fact that they didn’t even had one should be enough of an argument. This wasn’t some shootout yesterday. It was a hard nose defensive game against the best team in the league. Don’t put yourself in a position to be down two scores instead of one in the fourth quarter in that scenario.

Scenario 1A: Bills are down 9, go for two, make it to be down 7 (one possession game) 48.2% conversion rate NFL wide Scenario 1B: Bills are down 9, go for two, miss and are still down 9 (two possession game) 51.8% probability Scenario 2A: Bills are down 9, kick PAT, make it to be down 8 (one possession game) 94.4% conversion rate NFL wide Scenario 2B: Bills are down 9, kick PAT, miss and are still down 9 (two possession game) 5.6% probability Which scenario gives the higher probability that it will be a one possession game with 8 minutes remaining? Who watching that game thought the Bills had two more scoring drives in them? I didn’t, but maybe I wasn’t paying close enough attention to the underlying analytics of our performance . Why risk effectively taking yourself out of a game with 8 minutes left?

How to decide when to go for 2 AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION MARGIN AFTER TD +1 +2 (VS. +1) BETTER OPTION -15 0.5 1.0 Two 0 8.4 1.8 One -14 1.0 0.4 One 1 1.8 6.5 Two -13 0.4 1.1 Two 2 6.5 5.0 One -12 1.1 1.3 Same 3 5.0 2.9 One -11 1.3 2.2 Two 4 2.9 3.1 Same -10 2.2 2.9 Two 5 3.1 5.2 Two -9 2.9 3.3 Same 6 5.2 3.3 One -8 3.3 5.2 Two 7 3.3 2.9 Same -7 5.2 3.1 One 8 2.9 2.2 One -6 3.1 2.9 Same 9 2.2 1.3 One -5 2.9 5.0 Two 10 1.3 1.1 Same -4 5.0 6.5 Two 11 1.1 0.4 One -3 6.5 1.8 One 12 0.4 1.0 Two -2 1.8 8.4 Two 13 1.0 0.5 One -1 8.4 8.4 Same 14 0.5 0.7 Same The chart that literally shows it’s the same. You asked upthread the Randal what happens if the Bills miss the two point attempt in his scenario. That’s easy, they lose on the last play of the game. Had they missed the two during actual game play, we would have lost anyway, but what we would have double the amount of scoring drives we needed to win. Keep telling me I can’t read though when your own link shows there’s no benefit and thinking things through with basic math shows it doesn’t make much sense. I’m sure you watched the game, did you see a team that was going to drive down the field twice after scoring late because that’s not the game I watched. Sometimes context actually does matter in sports.

The case to be made to go for two (just in case someone doesn’t want to click through the 538 article): https://mobile.twitter.com/bburkeESPN/status/820784936236019712 transcribed: Go for 2 now, you'll likely have to eventually. You'll know the outcome sooner rather than later and have time to restrategize. restrategize meaning oh *****, we missed the two and now we need two stops and probably an onside to win this game now. Such a fantastic argument, thank Christ there was an expert to tell me that.

I know Nate Silver didn’t write the piece, but it’s his site and it was a joke...I didn’t realize that two being more than one was wrong, learn something new every day. You did say you were wrong about the chart, and then you repeated it again. Bills lost either way, it doesn’t matter. But being down one possession with always be better than being down two, keep telling yourself otherwise though. It was a good call because it worked, but had they missed and then scored a touchdown it would have been absolutely panned.

Because we all know Nate Silver has never gotten anything wrong before. A two possession deficit is worse than a one possession deficit, regardless of quarter. I fail to see how that’s even a question of debate. Like you said, two point conversions are a coin flip. Why risk needing an extra possession until you need to? Not to mention your chart shows it’s not better to go for two when down 9. You just admitted it. Why are you fighting your own sources?

I’ve been a big fan of Chucky since he came in the league. I’d be fine trading any expiring contract on D.

I was surprised they went got two when they did too. It’s a two possession game if you miss, one possession game if you kick. I think you’re overthinking it.

Who pissed in your Cheerios?

I’m trying to decide if more people will watch this game if the Bills win or lose. Either way, it’s a Bills town today.

Exactly. I’ve never Billieved before, but since the Browns game things have really been building. This team is different than any I’ve seen and I have full confidence McD has them focused and prepared. Daboll always worries me, but since he moved upstairs I’ve liked the play calls. I hope Singletary gets 20 touches and Allen’s flat routes look like they’ve been rather than how they did earlier this year. It’s a winnable game—every game is for this team.

I woke up feeling the same way, only I don’t think I’ve been this excited before. let’s go bills!

Hockey 101 says you build from you net out. We haven’t seen anything close to resembling that. At this point there’s no reason to waste assets for a goalie, we should be giving Ullie 65% of the starts and see what happens.

Pretty sure Steve Smith does. I think we should call up Bobby April and see what he’s doing. A ST genius like him can adapt to hockey.

I would like to see Asplund and Mitts swapped, but Asplund deserves the promotion. If we never see Mitts down the middle again I’d be fine with it

What’s Dylan Cozens got to do with this? You lost me.

There have been zero big goals for the Sabres in Eichel’s time here therefore he has no big goals. He has come through in the clutch many times to win us games however. But since none of those games have mattered in the slightest, I don’t think it can be said he’s scored a big goal.

This. We’re one Tkachuk-esque player from being a competitive team. It goes much deeper than just the skill they provide though.

The last one was a little played out, I hope this next one is better.

Song 2 by Blur used to be the goal song. Ottawa uses it now. It’s the best choice for a goal song out there. As the saying goes in hockey “had it, lost it”

To be honest I don’t know if they’ve done this in the last 15 years but I remember them doing it in the mid-2000s. It’s a good way to advertise upcoming players. Not that the NHL likes marketing though...

The NHL should do a rookie vs sophomore 3v3 game like the NBA does (did?)

I thought so too. Never saw something like that before.

I don’t think I can agree with this. I’m certainly no fan of Skinner but he’s one of the most beautiful skaters I’ve ever seen. The way he opens his hips is incredible to watch.

song 2 is the pinnacle of goal songs and any team that doesn’t use it is an idiot (shout out Ottawa, you’ve got that going for you)