DarthEbriate

Only a few years ago, Sheahan would’ve been asked to play in our top 6… like Girgensons or Carrier or Kubalik or Deslauriers.

The time to lock up the core (whomever they are perceived to be) are the summers of 2023 and 2024. The cap will still be flattish. Once it explodes though, the money will get obscene. If I’m a good young player like Thompson/Cozens who could be great… I’m signing a bridge and betting on myself. I should be able to get silly money in a few years once the escrow ends.

Helpful for LTIR. They’ll be able to ice their entire roster now, if all the skaters happen to be healthy. Heck, it also means they can trade for a $5M goalie. Will he be back for the playoffs?

It's the Cirelli deal minus the bridge in between.

Sheahan was solid (in a limited 4th line role) two seasons ago and that's what is expected. He was also fine last year for Seattle. I think he's an upgrade over Eakin. He works the boards well and is a solid veteran influence for the kids. He's a good player and probably ends up in 60 games and nets 10-15 points.

Cirelli was a 3x$4.8 cap hit (base salaries from 900k to $3.3M to $7.2M... wow) ending in RFA after this upcoming season, and then the extension already signed to an 8x6.25. This will look either fantastically cheap if he continues to improve and takes over top 6 minutes and PP time from Stamkos, or utterly horrible if he can't ever get past Stamkos/Point or whomever takes over after them. Cozens is being used in a similar "mostly defensive" center approach to start his career, but with expectations to be the 2C, so I can see a similar contract path. Now, if Mitts or Krebs takes off and claims the 2C role and Cozens gets permanently relegated to a 3C -- then getting a Nick Paul/Nicholas Roy level contract could be very advantageous to the team and himself.

Absolutely, but also fun. And the peers got me intrigued... so here goes. The Ranking column is the save % ranking across the NHL season. The final "Ranking >12" column is basically a "qualifies for leaderboard" where I arbitrarily selected 12 games played as the minimum to include the save % because in each season there are 5-7 guys who play 15 minutes and make 3 saves and stand atop the NHL leaderboard with 1.000% on the season (I'm looking at you Kasimir Kaskisuo!). But I didn't do that for the seasons where they were in the 50s because I'm lazy. Miller Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 05-06 | .914 | 13th | 10th 26 | 06-07 | .911 | 22nd | 17th 27 | 07-08 | .906 | 50th | lazy 28 | 08-09 | .918 | 16th | 12th Ullmark Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 18-19 | .905 | 53rd | lazy, Hutton was 45th 26 | 19-20 | .915 | 26th | 21st 27 | 20-21 | .917 | 22nd | 13th 28 | 21-22* | .917 | 21st | 12th *with BOS Is entering-his-prime Miller better than entering-his-prime Ullmark? Yes. Is he dramatically better? I'd argue no. Each had a poorer year (loss of Drury/Briere vs. a Eichel+Skinner season with Housley where the team attempted to be offensive with only 1 line). Also, neither had yet had a top-flight season either. None of these are up with the real goalie leaders (+.920) in any season. But Miller got Hart votes in 05-06 and 06-07 as the guy carrying the entire load (Lindy Ruff style) on stacked Sabres teams.

Through their first 6 seasons with the Sabres (age 22-27), Miller and Ullmark compare quite closely. Miller had double the minutes played (lots of games played - 264), but their starts 132 (Miller) - 112 (Ullmark), save percentage .910 (Miller) - .912 (Ullmark), and quality starts % .568 (Miller) and .563 (Ullmark) are similar. Miller played for a much better team in his early seasons than Ullmark did and Ullmark had 2 seasons with extensive time lost to injury. By the numbers, Miller and Ullmark have both been solid, average starting goalies. (Miller didn't have his great Vezina season until age 29 and that was an outlier statistically for his career.) If Comrie is in the average .914-.917 range and stays healthy, he'll be just fine, particularly since the team's talent in front of him will continue to increase.

Less powerplay time this season on account of Power, but still good minutes and a steadying game that looks better and better as the team improves. At or above career highs despite the limited PP time simply because the team is better. 4-20-24. I still look at a Joker like a Lydman. (And remember, we didn't see Lydman/Tallinder until they were both in their late 20s. Jokiharju is still only going to be 23 during this season.) His best play is still a few years away and will be on his 3rd contract by then, with us or elsewhere, as need dictates.

Within the division this season: Bergeron and Krejci are being paid less combined than Thompson and Mittelstadt this season. (Bold prediction: by the end of the season, that will be proven to be correct in terms of scoring output.) None of those 4 centers are on an ELC. 1st line? Bergeron and Thompson are being paid less combined than Charlie Coyle. Top 2? Bergeron/Krejci and Thompson/Cozens combined are being paid less than any of Larkin, (and only outgain Copp by $170k), Barkov, Suzuki, Point, Stamkos, Matthews, or Tavares.

Re: Petersen -- The other factor in play in addition to organizational chaos was how he was appraised by the GMTM administration. Petersen was drafted by Regier in 2013. In comes GMTM who's stated claim is "get a big Swedish guy". True to his word, GMTM drafted Jonas Johansson the next draft, had Ullmark in the system, and traded for Lehner. Petersen could easily see that his future was not here. Then, the offseason Petersen left in FA was the same of GMTM and HCDB being fired. JBott could have made efforts to retain Petersen, but probably the decision/ship had sailed in the preceding years.

Bryson's fine as a 7/8, which means he'll play a bunch over the course of a season. He's got the wheels for transition, and when he plays against speed he looks solid (he deftly defused a McDavid rush 1-on-1). But he gets overpowered when NHL-caliber forwards take it to the net. He's still only 24 so if he can bulk up a bit to ward off net-drives and hold up a bit more along the wall, he'll have a chance to be a Biega or Ruhwedel and be a career 7/8/AHL guy. That's not a bad gig. But what it also means is... why isn't Ryan Johnson signing? No matter where he signs he's going to play half a season in the AHL on an ELC first. But one of the best opportunities in the league to break into the NHL lineup is right here, especially with Dahlin on the right side.

I'd like to point out that in his heyday, Varada was in our top-6. In the 98-99 playoffs he was 6th among forwards in average ice time because he played on Peca's wing and was on the 2nd PP unit. (He'd be 5th if not for Satan's injury because Cunneyworth got top line minutes in his 2-game stint replacing Miro, although Grosek likely would have had more average time had his back not been busted. Dang, those injuries to Grosek and Satan were irksome...losing 2 out of the 3 scorers on the team... blergh.) Anyway, Varada played more than Sanderson and Barnes. The next season Varada was 5th on the team in scoring. Then in the Peca-less season he was again in the top 5 for average ice time among forwards. He didn't score a ton, but it was the deadest of the dead puck era and no one on those teams outside of Satan scored much.

A) That's a great audio call all around. Understated but totally building the drama in the setup, one celebratory call, then get out of the way. Gather some thoughts and recap. B) That's one hell of an at-bat. (But wow... the league's best closer doesn't have a slider? Nothing offspeed?) C) I didn't care one iota about either of these teams at the time nor did I have a clue who this balding, mustachioed guy was. But I definitely used Kirk Double-Arm Pump as my baseball celebration for the next few years. Heck, I think I used it when I scored my first lacrosse goal (which ended up being a hockey wrist shot from the mud) 12 or so years later. Heck, I'm going to do a couple KDAPs right now when I celebrate posting this post.

That stinks. He had a great season and playoff run last year. Hope he's able to make a full recovery and continue the dream.

Korchinski, Mintyukov, Geekie, Mateychuk, Nazar, McGroarty, Lekkerimaki are the picks that went between 7 and 16. I think there's a solid case to take any of them before Östlund. The follow-up scenario to that becomes what a lot of us were concerned with in the Murray trade thread: Is that it? He can't be the guy, right? And would Comrie still sign with Buffalo if we had Murray? Or would it be Comrie/Samsonov in Toronto and Murray/Anderson here? Edit: But I like Savoie's potential over Kasper's... to stay on target for the thread.

If the Sabres had landed #7 (and Murray with money retained) and held 9 and 28, it leads to the interesting what-if scenario: Provided DET doesn't trade up into the top 6... The Sabres have to take Kasper at 7 to nab him. Then, does Yzerman take Savoie at 8 or someone else?

If it ever becomes a burden, a buyout anytime after this season (June 2023) is much more tolerable except for his final contract season of 26-27 with a single season $6M hit which could be planned for.

I don't think it'll be much of a risk. He got into over 50 games (including playoffs) in the Czechia league last year. He needs to work on his core and leg strength like any young prospect and I'm sure we'll see plenty of tumbling to the ice in the board battles... but he'll be able to be a 4th liner in the AHL this year. Get him over and acclimated to the pace and ice size. As a sweetener, maybe he can get a 2-game look late in the season for an extra big paycheck. He just has to understand he's not really sniffing the Sabres lineup until midseason callups in 2023-24 at the earliest.

Yes! The GM Sheev 10-year phantom-menace-plan approach.

This survey is fresh off the optics of the draft and free agency. From a national perspective, Jersey got a maybe starting-caliber goalie (same as the Sabres) and Ondrej Palat (who would be in our top 6) -- who's been constantly in the public eye with Tampa's playoff runs. The Sabres got a maybe-2nd pair defensive defenseman. Jersey also drafted 1st overall. They're trendy. For that matter, so are Detroit and Ottawa after making splashy FA moves and DeBrincat trades.

I've only been aware of hockey and the Sabres since '93-'94 so I've always known the Eastern Conference with [edit: at least 13 teams -- had to go back and check some realignments]. The Sabres were always in the playoffs until they traded Hasek and Peca and underwent owner fraud-league control turmoil... and that blip was only 3 seasons. Then, they came out of the lockout and missed the playoffs twice more with 90-point seasons in those heroic runs to 9th. They were always playoff contenders until the decision was made that the only way to win was to get top-3 picks like the Penguins had.

I don't think Jersey will make it, either. But I do see the love for them as an up-and-comer. It's a lot easier to see Pitt or the Caps falling off a cliff because of age/injuries than just Boston in our division. The Jackets got Gaudreau but nothing else on that team is daunting. Meanwhile, NJD has 2 high-end young centers in Hischier and Hughes. Bratt had 73 points. They were like Detroit and us last year with garbage goaltending and Vanecek should help them at least a little bit toward average. Mercer looked really good and even getting Wood back from injury would solidify the middle six. There is definitely some room for optimism there. (3% is probably one person)

That's the great mystery of line combinations; they sort themselves out. JJP is a rookie and still needs to work on his all-around game, whereas Asplund is really solid defensively. Asplund earned Selke votes on a bad team and will garner even more votes this season as the team improves. Ideally, yes he's checking line guy, but Asplund's game can float up and down a lineup to protect scoring lines with more offensively-focused players. Case in point: Asplund-Mitts-Thompson at the end of 2020-21 or Asplund-Mitts-VO in March of 2022.

I wouldn't predict the Sabres to make the playoffs this season, either. And certainly not until we see what training camp and injuries occur (and if the Bruins bring back Krejci and Bergeron at veteran minimum salaries because why not). I strongly believe the Sabres will be better than last season where they stunk for 3 months. I strongly believe the division is going to condense because BUF/DET/OTT will all be tougher games this season and BOS is already injury-riddled through Thanksgiving, FLA gained Tkachuk, but lost 2 of their best players to get him + lost Duclair for most of the season already, and TB doesn't have the same tier of player replacing Palat or McDonagh. Will that be enough? Maybe. Will it make for an entertaining season? Definitely.