DarthEbriate

They're light on the veteran presence (out are R2 and Jankowski) and perhaps also on proven scorers (Quinn/Peterka), but they're not light on potential with this influx of youngsters.

I don't believe it. (That is why I fail.) Anderson was great for the team last year in terms of confidence and communication... but he's a <.900 goalie at this point. They can make the playoffs if Comrie pulls a Shesterkin out of his helmet and rolls a +.925 sv% for 60 games. I think that's too much to ask.

Limited sample size, but in Portland @ Seattle this season, Kozak was the best and most noticeable player on the ice (minus Seattle's goalie). He was physical, he was fast and engaged, and one really nice assist. He isn't an offensive dynamo, but he's a 200' grinder with purpose.

I think Quinn makes the team out of camp on the 4th line and HCDG moves him around looking for the right center to mesh with. There will be ups and downs and lots of complaints about how easily he's knocked off the puck or pushed down to the ice like happens to all young players. But when the season ends, he'll have solidified himself on the powerplay, found a line (maybe an Asplund-Mitts-Quinn), and have a very bright future. Probably only around 35 points, but with a minimum of 14 goals. Definitely -10 or worse, though. Other teams will get their scoring lines on the ice when he's out there.

I've got Kulich written in as my 3C in Rochester to start the year. And 4C if they decide Biro is going to get a look at center and to keep him protected a bit. He'll have his ups and downs. By season's end (when Levi signs in Buffalo and earns a shutout or four)... Reinhart will still be fine, but it'll look like the greatest Sabre trade in recent memory.

When everyone was healthy at the beginning and end of the season (and the team looked good), Okposo was the 3RW. However, he was 4th among forwards in average ice time because he was on PP2 and killed penalties. I don't see any of those conditions changing this season. PP1 - Thompson/VO on the wings, PP2 of Quinn/KO. Maybe he loses some PP2 time as the season goes on, but his 3rd line setup will have the most talent we've had with him in awhile. I see a similar output to last season, but it will feel more impressive because instead of skating with Girgensons (4th liner this year) and Eakin (gone) and an assortment of rookies, he'll be with a Cozens, Mitts, Krebs, Asplund, or Quinn all one year improved in their games. Okposo is still capable of playing in the top 6 if either of VO or Tuch is injured. More specific? 70 games played. 16:10 min/gm. 18-28-46 and -2. I almost said +2 but I have goalie concerns.

Win 16 playoff games in the same postseason.

Errrr, uh, errrrm... you know, Kubalikahun. Kahun. My mistake, it was sunny and beery and I couldn't remember his name. Kahun was immediately in the top 6 and then we didn't even tender his RFA. That same 2019-2020 season, Sobotka and Vesey spent a lot of time on the 2nd line with Skinner-Johansson as well.

Someday, yes. But right now Thompson and Skinner work well together. And we've seen that not every center meshes with Skinner -- though a lot of that was Krueger. Tuch (midseason) and Olofsson (end-season, once his shot returned) were quality mates for them.

I would love to see Krebs become Brierish. The thing to remember though, is that Briere was 24 before he showed his Briereness consistently. And then Phoenix traded him because they wanted a big center. This season, I can see a rookie 4th line of JJP-Krebs-Quinn for advantageous matchups. I can see Krebs forcing his way onto the 2nd line wing. I can also see a rough camp with turnovers that lead to Krebs starting the season in Rochester as the top center (so as to play center exclusively and in all situations). My other thought is the "how many rookies at once?" question. I believe a lineup can only handle one F and one D rookie at a time. This is especially important this season where the primary competition (understaffed BOS via injury, lots of UFA Detroit, and trade/UFA pickup Ottawa) are all going to be in the fight with us at the beginning of the season. Defensive lapses or learning on the fly from JJP/Quinn/Power all at once is not going to make the fans happy. It's why Sheahan is a good pickup. I think either Quinn or Peterka starts the season in Buffalo (yes, and Krebs is here, too). Then the other of JJP/Quinn is the first call-up and once injuries are recovered from, then Bjork/Sheahan is the person sent down and the kids stay.

Only a few years ago, Sheahan would’ve been asked to play in our top 6… like Girgensons or Carrier or Kubalik or Deslauriers.

The time to lock up the core (whomever they are perceived to be) are the summers of 2023 and 2024. The cap will still be flattish. Once it explodes though, the money will get obscene. If I’m a good young player like Thompson/Cozens who could be great… I’m signing a bridge and betting on myself. I should be able to get silly money in a few years once the escrow ends.

Helpful for LTIR. They’ll be able to ice their entire roster now, if all the skaters happen to be healthy. Heck, it also means they can trade for a $5M goalie. Will he be back for the playoffs?

It's the Cirelli deal minus the bridge in between.

Sheahan was solid (in a limited 4th line role) two seasons ago and that's what is expected. He was also fine last year for Seattle. I think he's an upgrade over Eakin. He works the boards well and is a solid veteran influence for the kids. He's a good player and probably ends up in 60 games and nets 10-15 points.

Cirelli was a 3x$4.8 cap hit (base salaries from 900k to $3.3M to $7.2M... wow) ending in RFA after this upcoming season, and then the extension already signed to an 8x6.25. This will look either fantastically cheap if he continues to improve and takes over top 6 minutes and PP time from Stamkos, or utterly horrible if he can't ever get past Stamkos/Point or whomever takes over after them. Cozens is being used in a similar "mostly defensive" center approach to start his career, but with expectations to be the 2C, so I can see a similar contract path. Now, if Mitts or Krebs takes off and claims the 2C role and Cozens gets permanently relegated to a 3C -- then getting a Nick Paul/Nicholas Roy level contract could be very advantageous to the team and himself.

Absolutely, but also fun. And the peers got me intrigued... so here goes. The Ranking column is the save % ranking across the NHL season. The final "Ranking >12" column is basically a "qualifies for leaderboard" where I arbitrarily selected 12 games played as the minimum to include the save % because in each season there are 5-7 guys who play 15 minutes and make 3 saves and stand atop the NHL leaderboard with 1.000% on the season (I'm looking at you Kasimir Kaskisuo!). But I didn't do that for the seasons where they were in the 50s because I'm lazy. Miller Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 05-06 | .914 | 13th | 10th 26 | 06-07 | .911 | 22nd | 17th 27 | 07-08 | .906 | 50th | lazy 28 | 08-09 | .918 | 16th | 12th Ullmark Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12 25 | 18-19 | .905 | 53rd | lazy, Hutton was 45th 26 | 19-20 | .915 | 26th | 21st 27 | 20-21 | .917 | 22nd | 13th 28 | 21-22* | .917 | 21st | 12th *with BOS Is entering-his-prime Miller better than entering-his-prime Ullmark? Yes. Is he dramatically better? I'd argue no. Each had a poorer year (loss of Drury/Briere vs. a Eichel+Skinner season with Housley where the team attempted to be offensive with only 1 line). Also, neither had yet had a top-flight season either. None of these are up with the real goalie leaders (+.920) in any season. But Miller got Hart votes in 05-06 and 06-07 as the guy carrying the entire load (Lindy Ruff style) on stacked Sabres teams.

Through their first 6 seasons with the Sabres (age 22-27), Miller and Ullmark compare quite closely. Miller had double the minutes played (lots of games played - 264), but their starts 132 (Miller) - 112 (Ullmark), save percentage .910 (Miller) - .912 (Ullmark), and quality starts % .568 (Miller) and .563 (Ullmark) are similar. Miller played for a much better team in his early seasons than Ullmark did and Ullmark had 2 seasons with extensive time lost to injury. By the numbers, Miller and Ullmark have both been solid, average starting goalies. (Miller didn't have his great Vezina season until age 29 and that was an outlier statistically for his career.) If Comrie is in the average .914-.917 range and stays healthy, he'll be just fine, particularly since the team's talent in front of him will continue to increase.

Less powerplay time this season on account of Power, but still good minutes and a steadying game that looks better and better as the team improves. At or above career highs despite the limited PP time simply because the team is better. 4-20-24. I still look at a Joker like a Lydman. (And remember, we didn't see Lydman/Tallinder until they were both in their late 20s. Jokiharju is still only going to be 23 during this season.) His best play is still a few years away and will be on his 3rd contract by then, with us or elsewhere, as need dictates.

Within the division this season: Bergeron and Krejci are being paid less combined than Thompson and Mittelstadt this season. (Bold prediction: by the end of the season, that will be proven to be correct in terms of scoring output.) None of those 4 centers are on an ELC. 1st line? Bergeron and Thompson are being paid less combined than Charlie Coyle. Top 2? Bergeron/Krejci and Thompson/Cozens combined are being paid less than any of Larkin, (and only outgain Copp by $170k), Barkov, Suzuki, Point, Stamkos, Matthews, or Tavares.

Re: Petersen -- The other factor in play in addition to organizational chaos was how he was appraised by the GMTM administration. Petersen was drafted by Regier in 2013. In comes GMTM who's stated claim is "get a big Swedish guy". True to his word, GMTM drafted Jonas Johansson the next draft, had Ullmark in the system, and traded for Lehner. Petersen could easily see that his future was not here. Then, the offseason Petersen left in FA was the same of GMTM and HCDB being fired. JBott could have made efforts to retain Petersen, but probably the decision/ship had sailed in the preceding years.

Bryson's fine as a 7/8, which means he'll play a bunch over the course of a season. He's got the wheels for transition, and when he plays against speed he looks solid (he deftly defused a McDavid rush 1-on-1). But he gets overpowered when NHL-caliber forwards take it to the net. He's still only 24 so if he can bulk up a bit to ward off net-drives and hold up a bit more along the wall, he'll have a chance to be a Biega or Ruhwedel and be a career 7/8/AHL guy. That's not a bad gig. But what it also means is... why isn't Ryan Johnson signing? No matter where he signs he's going to play half a season in the AHL on an ELC first. But one of the best opportunities in the league to break into the NHL lineup is right here, especially with Dahlin on the right side.

I'd like to point out that in his heyday, Varada was in our top-6. In the 98-99 playoffs he was 6th among forwards in average ice time because he played on Peca's wing and was on the 2nd PP unit. (He'd be 5th if not for Satan's injury because Cunneyworth got top line minutes in his 2-game stint replacing Miro, although Grosek likely would have had more average time had his back not been busted. Dang, those injuries to Grosek and Satan were irksome...losing 2 out of the 3 scorers on the team... blergh.) Anyway, Varada played more than Sanderson and Barnes. The next season Varada was 5th on the team in scoring. Then in the Peca-less season he was again in the top 5 for average ice time among forwards. He didn't score a ton, but it was the deadest of the dead puck era and no one on those teams outside of Satan scored much.

A) That's a great audio call all around. Understated but totally building the drama in the setup, one celebratory call, then get out of the way. Gather some thoughts and recap. B) That's one hell of an at-bat. (But wow... the league's best closer doesn't have a slider? Nothing offspeed?) C) I didn't care one iota about either of these teams at the time nor did I have a clue who this balding, mustachioed guy was. But I definitely used Kirk Double-Arm Pump as my baseball celebration for the next few years. Heck, I think I used it when I scored my first lacrosse goal (which ended up being a hockey wrist shot from the mud) 12 or so years later. Heck, I'm going to do a couple KDAPs right now when I celebrate posting this post.

That stinks. He had a great season and playoff run last year. Hope he's able to make a full recovery and continue the dream.