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Everything posted by DarthEbriate
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Cozens has 42 points (4th among Sabres forwards) in 45 games in only 16:49 minutes per game (4th Sabres among forwards). He's carrying two rookies on his line instead of getting proven linemates. He's got a 54.2 CF% (All) and 51.1 CF% (5-on-5 with said rookies) and is winning 49.5% of his faceoffs as a 21 year-old (and improving upon past seasons). Here's Cozens' competition in the NHL. 2nd line centers (C under 18 min/gm), https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/points/all/center?stats-season=2023&limits=gp-36-90,points-29-130,toi-0-18 and if you sort by points it reads: Tavares 45 pts Hintz 44 pts (1C on his team) Hayes 43 pts (huh? I'm completely shocked on this one) Cozens 42 pts Bergeron 37 pts (1C on his team) Krejci 37 pts Kadri 36 pts Beniers 36 pts (1C on his team) Every one of those other guys also gets PP times (and Cozens only has 14 PP points). What more production do you want from a 2C? (This is where I'm of the mind that Cozens is the 1C soon and Tager becomes the high-octane and O-zone 2C.)
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Yuck. Dominated in the trenches all game on both sides. Unfortunately, it wasn't much of a contest. That was Lovie Smith and Bears fans loved him because he did... in the beginning. He won several games against an aging Favre and a very old Packers roster overhaul in '04-'07 and then to start against fledgling Rodgers. But... Lovie still ended up with a career losing record to them because the Bears preferred drafting 1st round running backs and putting their faith in Grossman and then Cutler. (Never put your trust in Smokin' Jay.)
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GDT: Ducks @ Sabres, 1/21/2023, 12:30pm, MSG 📺 WGR📻
DarthEbriate replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
But Okposo isn't a grinder. He's a middle 6 power forward, the team leader, and one of the few players with Dad-strength. When the team came out flat against (I forget the opponent) HCDG dropped Tuch off the top line and inserted Okposo. That was the spark for a comeback. He's the replacement for Tuch on the top line. Last season, Okposo was on PP2 and in the top 6 and netted 20 goals. He could do that again this season if asked to. He doesn't have the speed to run-and-gun with JJP-Cozens-Quinn, but that line would arguably be better all around with OK on it (Quinn-Cozens-Okposo), just with more of a possession style. Instead, he's asked to be a defensive stalwart and build Krebs up into a player. The Sabres don't have a winger in the pipeline ready to be anything close to Okposo (maybe Nadeau or Bloom but they're years away). Look for him to sign something $3-3.75 for next season, and maybe 2-3.5 if they offer 2 years. -
I think you're right for joking, or that maybe meant Tage and not Tuch, but don't want to assume. Instead, needed to call out that you don't insult Cozens. He's exactly who you want to build around for the next 10 years. Agreed: Tage is the base. Tage is the Malkin, Cozens is the (not as good offensively, but all situations player) Crosby in a top 2 center setup. But anyone who thinks that Cozens isn't going to get paid is deluding themselves. He can be as good as kid as can be and he can even take a discount and he's going to get paid.
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Benning built a mess contracts (4th line of Eriksson, Beagle, some other guy) that made our LOG line look like a powerhouse in the midst of KO's injury-seasons, then went about extending Myers to a 5x$6M with no movement. Then traded those expiring 4th line contracts for OEL's contract. It was madness. Throw in an ownership group that doesn't have a clue... They want to be a playoff team when they should be unloading for Bedard. Horvat should want out. Pettersson should want out.
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Under double Tuch's deal by cap hit, sure. If GM Sheevyn offers Cozens a 7x$4.75M, then Cozens' agent should immediately counter with a 2-year bridge and a trade demand to a team willing sign an extension 8x $8.5M+. GMs would line up for it. And if the Sabres play hardball, then look to sign an RFA offer sheet ASAP.
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For those of you who are Bills fans -- good luck today! Home game, banged up Bengals o-line... go get 'em!
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
DarthEbriate replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
Throw in home v. Carolina before the All-Star break and anything 3-2 or better is a good run through a tough gauntlet. The good news this last week is that the main competition is scuffling. PIT and NYI are treading water the past couple weeks and WSH got blasted in Vegas with Ovechkin out of the lineup (it didn't matter that Tom Wilson and Nickulas Backstrom had returned to the lineup). The hot teams right now are Florida and Philadelphia and the hope is that they revert to their inconsistencies while the Sabres win their games-in-hand over them. -
I've tried to keep it mostly to centers (I threw in Tkachuk because of play-style and captain-potential). I thought Thomas and Kyrou but they're both on 2-year bridges already and are a few years older. I added Tage, but he falls into that same (STL-based) bridge bucket. I also left out Elias Pettersson because he was offered a 3-year bridge deal because Benning wanted to pay multiple 4th liners $3M instead of locking up his nearly ppg center. Some more comparisons to consider (with an extra-fun one!): $10.0M cap. 8yr/$80M - 57 pts in 61 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Jack Eichel BUF $8M cap. 8yr/$64M - 31 pts in 56 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Jack Hughes NJ $7.142 cap 7/$50M - 68 pts in 78 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on bridge deal) -- Tage Thompson BUF Cozens is matching or exceeding the production of all of these players listed except Aho and Eichel and he's going to start getting Selke votes soon as well. And he's doing it with 20 year-old wingers and 2nd line minutes.
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There is a ton of time before we really need to think about this, but the front office should be thinking about it everyday. Our imperial officer is growing up fast! Cozens is showing enough (the offense is catching up, the PP work is there, the feistiness and grit, guiding 2 rookies much of the season) for quite the contract. He has the all-around skill set to become a 1A to Tage's 1B. Tage gets the easier matchups, Cozens handles the opposition's top line in playoff series. But how much cash are the Sabres willing to show him? How much cash do you show him? Cozens is currently 41 pts/44 gms, with PP1 time and 2 rookies on his line. Points per season: 13, 38, 41 (in half a season). Good news from a team perspective, you have to sign him this year (before the cap potentially jumps a bunch, because you'll need that space for Rasmus). Comparisons to consider: $8.4.54M cap. 5yr/$42.295M - 83 pts in 82 gms in the season before signing the deal -- Sebastian Aho CAR $8.350M cap. 8yr/$66.8M - 58 pts in 79 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Tim Stutzle OTT $8.205M cap. 7yr/$57.5M - 36 pts in 56 gms in season before signing -- Brady Tkachuk OTT $7.95M cap. 8yr/$63.6M - 55 pts in 65 gms in season before signing -- Josh Norris OTT $7.875M cap. 8yr/$63M - 41 pts in 56 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Nick Suzuki MTL
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GDT: Ducks @ Sabres, 1/21/2023, 12:30pm, MSG 📺 WGR📻
DarthEbriate replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Stupid NHL Network. I'm hit. I can't stay with you (except with a bit of audio in the background). Go Sabres! Central is the best. Football starts at noon. For kids, the night games end before bedtime (in non-OT/extra innings cases). The Midwest is like a good porridge: it's just right. Here on the West coast though, you can watch sports all day and still do things or eat dinner in the evening. It's pretty convenient. Just have to get used to cracking open the first beer at 10 AM. -
GDT: Ducks @ Sabres, 1/21/2023, 12:30pm, MSG 📺 WGR📻
DarthEbriate replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Hockey? At 930 in the morning? General, count me in. -
Eichel thrown under the bus by Vegas HC Bruce Cassidy
DarthEbriate replied to matter2003's topic in The Aud Club
It's still important to follow Eichel and Vegas because the Sabres still have the 2023 2nd round pick. The worse Vegas does, the more options Sabres have to choose from in the draft. Balanced by the under-hyped Samuelsson and Tager. -
Eichel thrown under the bus by Vegas HC Bruce Cassidy
DarthEbriate replied to matter2003's topic in The Aud Club
He's more machine now than man. Buses can't hurt him.- 293 replies
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Agreed on Hino getting to choose what to do. And if he does report to Rochester, he automatically becomes the first callup for any forward injury that lasts more than a couple weeks. (And...his high speed forechecking would really help teach the kids in Rochester, too.)
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Ideally, yes. But I kept it at 2-1 because the Sabres would still mathematically be within striking distance of the Isles with the 3 games in hand if they won all of those games in hand. The Sabres already need help from someone (say PIT since they're already flagging) faltering down the stretch. And of the 6 remaining games amongst their chief competition for the final wild card, they must go 4-2 or better and really cannot even afford to go to OT in any of those wins (vs 3NYI, 2WSH, 0PIT, FLA1). Now... if a goalie gets hot and the top line reignites and the defense/PK tighten up and the Sabres go on a 15-3-2 bender in their next 20 games (December on repeat)... well then, they're right back in it.
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Absolute must-win for playoff hopes. 3 games against the Isles and need to take 2-of-3 without the third going to OT to make up ground, otherwise the games in hand become meaningless. Same with PIT, WSH, and FLA. The team has risen up for every big/event game since the outdoor game. Let's hope it continues.
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GDT: Sabres @ Blackhawks, 1/17/23, 8:30 pm, ESPN+ and MSG
DarthEbriate replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Aud Club
The Sabres have played no defense against Toews-Raddysh-Kurashev tonight all night. This is a game that should've been over after 2 periods, but so little energy and attack in the third.