JujuFish

Since you're not providing me an alternative answer, I can't explain why you're wrong, so I'll try to explain why I'm right. Let's start with your coin flip analogy. What are the odds of getting heads on a coin flip? 50%. Flip it again. What are the odds of getting heads on the second flip? 50%. Now I tell you I'm going to flip it twice in a row. What are the odds I get heads on either flip? It seems to me like you think it's 50%, but it's 75%. With a coin flip, this is particularly easy to see, because it's very easy to enumerate the results. We have HH, HT, TH, TT. Three out of four results have heads, AKA 75%. Let's go with a more complicated example, closer to the draft but nowhere near as complex. Let's say there are 6 teams eligible for the draft, and they all have equal odds. Now we're looking at two rolls of a die. Let's call the Sabres 1 (because we're #1!). On the first roll, everyone has a 1/6 chance. After the die is rolled once, we have a winner and that number now becomes a re-roll, making the remaining teams have a 1/5 chance. This is still simple enough to enumerate. We have the following possibilities: 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 = 5/5 results with Buffalo winning 2-1 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 3-1 3-2 3-4 3-5 3-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-5 4-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-6 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 = 1/5 results with Buffalo winning ------------------------------------------------------ 10/30 = 33.3% chance Buffalo wins As you can see, the odds of Buffalo winning are how I'm attempting to describe. When there are 1001 draws like the NHL, with over 1 million combinations, it's infeasible (for me) to write them all out, but the principle remains the same. If you know the individual odds of something happening in two different setups, it's easy to calculate the odds of it happening at least once by calculating the odds of it not happening either time and subtracting that from 100%. In the coin flip example, the odds of not getting heads either time is 50%, so 1-(.5)(.5) = .75 or 75%. In the die roll example, it's 1-(5/6)(4/5) = 1-(20/30) or 33.3%. Assuming the numbers upthread are accurate, for the draft lottery it's 1-(.95)(.946) = 10.13%. See above. Hopefully you'll understand why you're wrong.

I don't know what the numbers are, but if it's 5% in the first draw and ~5.4% in the second draw, then Buffalo's odds of winning one of the two draws is 10.13%.

And?

Someone assuming this wouldn't be that far off, since their odds of winning one of the two would be 9.96%.

The oldest Millennials are over 40 right now.

When I went to see if I wanted to make a fool of myself with a bracket, it said: "make your picks before they close one minute before puck drop of the first Game 2 of the Playoffs tentatively scheduled for 6:59 p.m. ET on May 4th, 2022." So, I guess there's still more time?

Hey, old people, it hasn't been the WWF in two decades. 😛

I went to game 4 of that series (a 2-4 loss in Philly). To this day, it's the only playoff game I've been to.

6th round picks.

Could've kept trading down.

I'm not in love with the spot they took him, but he appears to have the speed and pass catching ability that Singletary lacks.

Hell yeah. Played so sloppy, but they got it done for the fans and RJ!

I hope we go out big for RJ. Gimme 7-0, please.

Hence calling it a nitpick. We need a new term. LG (lead-gaining) drives?

Nitpick: he has 0 GW drives against KC, since, you know, the Bills didn't win.

It's a simple yes or no question. Do you think the Pegulas have done a poor job?

This is their first season under the new name. I was hoping for Spiders.

Oh sure, no game at all. You keep trying to shift the conversation and won't answer me straight up. Do you think the Pegulas, who have now set a record level of futility across the entire league, have not done poorly?

There we go

I'm not sure what your game is here. Do you honestly not think the Pegulas' performance as owners is pathetic?

You don't have to try if you're simply incompetent.

Three seasons. That was the longest streak without playoffs that Sabres fans have ever had to endure. Three. 2001-04. Counting this soon-to-be-done season, the Pegulas have owned the Sabres for 11 full seasons. We have not made playoffs even a single time during this ownership. Something is pathetic here, and it's not the lack of support from the fans.

I watched Everything Everywhere All at Once a couple days ago, and it was weird and great. I don't watch many movies, but it's currently the best of the year for me.

It's all arbitrary. People that like to focus on wins instead of points can aim for 45 wins, which has never failed to make playoffs. I don't really care; I mainly just like finding oddities (like the fact that a team actually *has* gone above 0.600 without playoffs, or how the 1925 Hamilton Tigers finished with the best record and lost 0 playoff games but were not the league champions (their players went on strike demanding an extra $200 due to the season being 6 games longer (the championship was forfeited to Montreal and the players were fined $200))).

Rounder than .586, but I'm betting you knew that.