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TrueBlueGED

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  3. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Just now, dudacek said:

    From what I’ve read, they see Karlsson as a good 2 and their preference is to pay him like one by sacrificing one of their two good 3cs in exchange for picks.

    Well, if he comes in around $8.5M, sacrificing one $2.8M or $3.8M contract isn't gonna get it done. Don't get me wrong, I think they make it work...but if we're talking RFA land for our center solution, I think he's infinitely more available than the other options.

  4. 2019 NHL Draft

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 minute ago, dudacek said:

    Of course not. Panarin Saad is at the level of the ROR trade IMO.

    People thought it was trade of two top six forwards, that the Hawks were giving up 15 points in exchange for cap space and power.

    In reality, they gave up 40 points in a trade of a first liner for a middle sixes.

    Well, it was. Saad's season after the trade was rough, but he's clearly a top-6 winger by both traditional and advanced metrics. Of course, Panarin is a star, so.....still horrible, but not on the level of ROR horrible. Chicago at least got a quality NHL player out of it.

  5. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    RFAs are very interesting - Karlsson, Point and Aho - I don’t see any of them being available unless the player forces the team’s hands.

     

    I would love to know what it would take to get Karlsson. Depending on his contract demands, I think he could very well be available given Vegas' cap situation.

  6. 2019 NHL Draft

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    I know you don’t like Risto, but he plays a more important position, he’s outright outscored Saad over the past two years and Saad is a UFA in two years.i bet Risto has more value around the league.

    Also the move addresses needs for each team. Basically depends on how each team perceives the gap between the guy they rank three and the guy they rank seven.

    So you think we can trade Risto for a Panarin-level player? I know Saad had a really rough season, but I don't think Risto's value is in the stratosphere of that trade. Also, whether Risto plays a more important position really depends on whether you think he's a 2D on a good team or someone who should play sheltered 3rd pair minutes with PP time. 

  10. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

    With all due respect, there's no way Mittelstadt will be ready for 2C duty in October evenif he's given both Reinhart & Skinner.  

    That's not by naming, that's by usage.  If he's centering the 2nd scoring line, he'll be overmatched & overused.  He'd be getting 15 tough minutes / game.  He should get 12 easy-ish minutes / game.  In a season or 2, he'll be ready to primarily face the other team's 2nd D pairing (occasionally the top pairing) & 1st or 2nd line.  But not yet.

    Right. This is the problem with Sam as the solution...if he's not the solution, you're royally F'd. I have no problem with Sam at center being an option, but I have a massive problem with Sam at center being the plan.

    7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    This is fair, particularly watching the second half of the season. He failed to get separation and often looked frustrated.

    The hands though, when he did get space?

    I just remember the burst and the puck hounding as a junior and think it will resurface when his fitness and strength improves to NHL levels. Physical maturity will bring some of it, and the natural competitiveness should bring the rest.

    He was a boy last year but compete is in his DNA.

    I 100% believe in Mittelstadt as 2C...just not this season. If we add a legit 2C and Mittelstadt explodes, then we could make a deep playoff run. Great! Just can't go relying on it a second season in a row.

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  11. 2019 NHL Draft

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by TrueBlueGED

    27 minutes ago, Weave said:

    There is something to be said for putting yourself in a position to pick your preference instead of picking from what's left.  And there is plenty of data to suggest that, although it appears that 3-9 are pretty similar in any given draft, there is actual evidence that 4 (as an example) is statistically likely to be more successful that 9 (for example).

    In the NHL draft, moving up makes a hell of alot more sense than moving back.

    Teams and GMs certainly think that, but over the long haul it really doesn't prove to be true. As to the data, doesn't it fall off a cliff after pick 2 or 3? Like, mid single digit deltas? Without looking it up, I'd guess the probability of being a good NHL player at pick 8 is single digits less than say pick 5. And, of course, there's the question of whether a 10% jump in hit probability is worth the (presumably) astronomical sum it would take to make the move up a few spots. 

    Edit: Really good article here - https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

    we can see that the most significant value in NHL draft picks lies in the first three selections, and the largest drop-off in pick value occurs between picks three and four. Players selected in the four-to-15 range are still generally very valuable across their careers with a 15th-overall pick being worth about 1/3rd of a first-overall selection.

  14. 2019 NHL Draft

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dudacek said:

     

    What I like about Button’s list is that it is his opinion, and only his opinion. And what it should remind us is how different the individual team lists will be from each other, and from the consensus lists, like what @GASabresIUFAN has graciously put together for us.

    Some team, maybe lots of teams, are always going to have a Barrett Hayton outlier on their list. It’s just a matter of their outlier lining up with their actual pick.

    I have no doubt there are some scouts who have Caufield in the top five and others 10 spots lower.

    Which just reinforces why trading up in the NHL draft is near lunacy. After 1-2 or maybe 3, basically every year, the next 8 guys are the same. Sure, teams and scouts may have preferences, but that's all it is: preferences. There's no clear differentiator. Stay put and take your favorite at that spot. 

    • Like (+1) 2

  15. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dudacek said:

    That’s what my memory was telling me.

    The only part I disagree with is that I think the sample size of Sam-the-Centre is too limited to conclude he is mediocre.

    I believe Bylsma unfortunately messed up his development and think that ship may have sailed. I want the team to acquire a 2c, but not at any cost.

    I’d rather try Sam at 2c and Eberle at 2rw than Sam at 2rw and some stopgap at 2c like another Berglund, or a reclamation project like Brassard.

    I understand not wanting to overpay for a 2C when (hopefully) Mittelstadt can do it by next year. But if you don't fill the hole, the season is basically sunk. I know you believe in Sam, but are you willing to bet the season on him capably handling 2C for a playoff team? Expecting a 4C skating at 2C like Berglund to be enough of a backup plan is asking for pain, I think. 

    • Like (+1) 1

  16. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

    That's why I started my initial post on this topic with here we go again. We don't have the forward talent on this roster to give Reinhart adequate wingers so the experiment is bound to fail again, which is my whole point. You go to war with what you have and those crappy players I listed are what we have. Guys like Duchene, Panarin, and even Hayes aren't signing here and I'm not going to pull a wookie and assume we're going to hoodwink some team and take their best players for spare parts. Skinner is likely stapled to Eichel's hip (if he even stays). I think Reinhart and Mittelstadt are our best bets for a decent second line, but if they plan to move Reinhart to center then he's got nobody to help him. Olofsson has talent but he's too green to be with those guys and the rest of the forward lineup is worse.

    You honestly don't think we can get a Hayes-level player to sign here? C'mon man. 

  18. Movies / TV Shows - I Have Watched / Plan To Watch

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by TrueBlueGED

    1 hour ago, Hoss said:

    1. Dark Knight

    2. Watchmen

    3. Infinity War

    4. Thor: Ragnarok

    5. Days of Future Past

    6. Black Panther

    7. Guardians of the Galaxy

    8. Logan

    9. Hellboy II

    10. X-Men; First Class

    Watchmen and Hellboy II? Sir, I say sir!

    My list, not in any particular order:

    Iron Man, Avengers: Infinity War, Thor: Ragnarok, Captain American: The Winter Soldier, Black Panther, Guardians of the Galaxy, Logan, Deadpool, Spiderman 2, Dark Knight.

    Honorable mentions to X2, First Class, Batman Begins, and the original Avengers.

  19. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dudacek said:

    I agree that not acquiring a top six forward repeats the error of last year, and I want it to be a centre. I’m just concerned about the options. Overpaying a Kevin Hayes is not the answer. Trading Risto may just be closing one hole by opening another. I’m not sure either move is better than adding a Eberle-level winger for cap space and moving Sam to centre.

     

    I don’t think we will sign him, but acquiring Duchene or someone like him sure makes the lineup look better.

    Skinner Eichel ???

    ??? Duchene Reinhart

    Sheary/Mittelstadt/Rodrigues/Okposo

     

    Thompson, Olofsson and Nylander scrap it out to be ???, with the 3rd line guys waiting to pounce if they aren’t ready.

     

    Overpaying for a Kevin Hayes-level center may not be ideal, but it does plug the hole. It's a guarantee. The ceiling may not be as high as Reinhart blossoming as 2C, but the floor is considerably higher than what could easily be 2018 redux by counting on Reinhart and/or Mittelstadt to be playoff-caliber 2Cs. 

  20. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

    I like the Skinner/Reinhart combo a lot. Sign Eberle to play with Jack and line 1.

    Casey, Kyle and Conor is a much better line 3 than line 2

    How about we sign somebody to play with Sam instead? We finally found a winger who fits like a glove with Jack and you want to break that up for the sake of a Sam at center experiment? A pox on your house. 

    • Like (+1) 1

  21. Is Reinhart the answer at Second Line Center?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dudacek said:

    I remain one of the few interested in beating this dead horse. He was a great centre as a junior, his skill set cries centre and 15 games as a 21-year-old with a new coach, and bad wingers is not the definitive proof the majority of you consider it to be.

    From the article:

    "I started with the easy part and looked at his most common teammates (wingers) during that stretch. They were Zemgus Girgensons, Seth Griffith, and Nick Baptiste. He also at times had Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan, Matt Moulson, and Justin Bailey on his wings.

    Only one of those players are still an every day NHL player in Girgensons. That alone tells us a lot.

    In those 12 games, Reinhart averaged a zone-start rate of 44.8%. Thus, meaning he started more of his shifts in the defensive zone for head coach Phil Housley. Giving a young player adjusting to a new position with bad teammates, considerably more defensive zone starts is an interesting coaching tactic."

    The flip side of this is that we really can't afford to go into the season with such a big question mark at such a critical position. Again. There's no way Botterill does this two years in a row, is there? That would signal a catastrophic failure of an offseason. If they choose to give Reinhart a chance at 2C, it should only be done with a viable alternative present on the roster. For instance, if we acquire Miller (or equivalent) who we know can play 2C at a competent level, that's one thing. But if the only alternative is Mittelstadt, that's recipe for killing the season before it starts. 

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  25. Movies / TV Shows - I Have Watched / Plan To Watch

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, WildCard said:

    Anyone see the new Godzilla yet? I've heard it's just monsters fighting monsters and no real plot, which is exactly what a Godzilla movie should be 

    Haven't yet, but hope to soon. The other half wants to see the new X-men, but I'm trying to convince her that's bad in a bad way whereas Godzilla is bad in a good way. 

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