TrueBlueGED
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Posts posted by TrueBlueGED
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7 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Can you? Honest question.
First off, how many bottom six players get 30 points, let alone 37? Secondly, how many of those are being basically given away, meaning for a 4th round pick or less?
I can think of one off the top of my head, Conor Sheary. The Sabres paid a fourth to get basically the same production for two years at $5.2 million (Hunwick). Marleau will cost a million more, but you only have to pay him for one year.
The cheap cap guys that fit this profile are usually emerging kids and they aren’t getting traded for 4th rounders.
Im sure I’m missing some obvious guys, but is it really that easy to acquire cap-cheap 35-point scorers for 4th rounders?
210 forwards had 30 points or more this season. I'd like to think I could find one for less than $6M. Here's the list.
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4 minutes ago, shrader said:
And other guys on that list are just now turning pro, kind of like what Nylander should have been doing (and on the same note, Thompson as well).
@dudacek has mentioned it many times, but we'd all feel so much better about Nylander if he had spent the past two years putting up numbers in Sweden or the CHL.
Thompson definitely sucks though. He took my O'Reilly bear away from me ?
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4 minutes ago, darksabre said:
That strikes me as wildly unfair to players/teams that negotiated NTCs.
Unfair to players, sure. But teams? They're probably thrilled they don't have to use a valuable protection slot on players with something as mundane as a limited NTC.
Edit: It occurs to me that "exempt" was the wrong choice of words in my previous post. I simply meant a full NMC is the only thing that forces a team to protect a player during the draft. That's my memory of it, anyway.
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Just now, darksabre said:
I would assume NMC/NTC are treated the same for the purposes of the expansion draft but someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
I could be wrong, but I thought in the Vegas expansion draft the only thing that exempted a player was a full NMC.
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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I’m not not sure how many ways I can say I am not advocating for Marleau.
I just said I would rather have him than a fourth rounder, if we fail to bring in someone better to fill a middle six wing slot.
Sometimes it feels like this board only thinks there are 200 players worth a damn in the entire league, only two of them are Sabres and Botterill is moron because he can’t convince other GMs to acquire 12 of the good ones for the players we call trash on a daily basis.
Or maybe we should stop carrying vastly overpriced contracts so we can ice 12 NHL forwards? I can find someone to do what Marleau does for a lot less money. If I can't, then I'm not a very good GM. Finding a 3rd/4th line winger to net 30 points for less than top-6 forward money should not be a demanding proposition.
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6 minutes ago, Drunkard said:
Fair enough. Would you prefer Nathan MacKinnon then? He was only 2 drafts ahead of Eichel and he signed a much more team friendly contract.
1 minute ago, Curtisp5286 said:Yes, that’s better. His contract is really fantastic!
MacKinnon had also done nothing but regress since his rookie year when he signed that deal. The contract price reflects that. Hell, even in the first year of the new contract (his 4th in the league) he only put up 53 points in 82 games. Eichel was better in his 2nd and 3rd years in the league than MacKinnon was in his, and a lot better in that 4th season (which was this year for Eichel). Let's see where things go.
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Just now, WildCard said:
What is Cal O'Reilly doing to someone that could be that detrimental
Hazing in general can have very real negative psychological effects. And that's normal workplace or team-based hazing. They were living together. I just wouldn't dismiss out of hand the possibility of real damage being done.
Now, I'm not about to pump Nylander's tires as our answer to anything simply because COR has been gone for a longer period of time. Just saying that recovering from an abusive relationship of any kind isn't like flipping a light switch.
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16 minutes ago, WildCard said:
No, and the fact that that's even a sentence is absurd to me IMO. Was COR not good for him? Obviously not. But talking about any sort of 'recovery' from being hazed like that or whatever is wild to me
And if it contributed to a genuine mental health problem? What then?
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1 minute ago, darksabre said:
We already have Bogo for this season soooo
Which half do we have him for? ?
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5 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Meh...Toronto will probably find somebody who will do something like Marleau for a 4th, why not us?
Marleau is worth nowhere near his cap price, but he’s still a real NHL forward (37 points) and we’re a team that needs middle six players and doesn’t care about budget.
Im not saying we should be chasing this move, I am saying that if bigger, long-term moves don’t happen and we have the cap space, and he makes us better, why not? Vancouver might do it? The Islanders? It will make sense to someone.
We aren’t going to stop Toronto from fixing their cap by refusing to deal with them for anything but a Highway robbery. Historically, teams generally find ways out of those situations, and they will too.
How much better does adding Marleau make us? If we can't find a winger who can net us 37 points while providing zero in any other phase of the game, Botterill probably shouldn't be GM all too much longer.
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3 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:
If only the Sabres would have extended Eichel 6 years ago! They could have gotten a bargain like Bergeron. I bet Eichel’s cap number will look pretty good in 2023 too.
At the time of signing, Bergeron's contract was 10.69% of the cap; Eichel's is 13.33%. Bergeron's contract is just as amazing in relative terms as it is in absolute value.
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1 hour ago, LTS said:
I have no idea what you are getting at here. Sorry.
You've made no bones about being glad O'Reilly is gone because of his locker cleanout comments. I'm simply saying what athletes say publicly should be largely ignored when as a general rule, and particularly when their play on the ice completely contradicts their words off it. Skinner just functionally agreed to retire as a Sabre...who cares what he says? His actions said it all. He could have come out and said the same thing O'Reilly said and I wouldn't have cared because his actions matter more.
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37 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:
It pisses me off that nobody in he NHL has the stones to use offer sheets. There are a TON of guys this year who flat out deserve one and they won't get it. Point, Marner, Tkachuk, Connor, Laine, Werenski, Meier, ...even guys like Provorov and Konecny. Not one of them will get an offer sheet. It's not collusion though....
I mean, people keep telling me this is the year of the offer sheet....(it won't be, but some people I respect sure do believe it).
9 minutes ago, WildCard said:Would you really pay 4 1st round draft picks for those guys?
Of those listed, I'd pay four 1sts for Point, Marner, Tkachuk, and Werenski without thinking twice.
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8 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:
5.4 + 4 + 2 + 910k = $12.31M. Six of one..... I think we under estimate what Ristolainen can return. If the cost is to throw back a prospect along with Ristolainen but Scandella must be included, then I’m all in. I want him off roster more than any other player not name Vlad.
Boy was my mental math there bad ?
Mostly what I was trying to get at is you'll be hard-pressed to find a team willing to take on $9.4M of defensemen without a significant contract heading back our way. It's not going to be a pure cap space gain.
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16 minutes ago, Doohickie said:
I feel that if Krueger legitimately tries to put players in a position to succeed as he claims, he might be able to save Risto. It may be literally a few days of practicing breakouts and clearing the zone without him carrying it out. But Risto's gotta learn to use his teammates better.
Do you want to spend $5.4M on a player who needs saving?
23 minutes ago, Drunkard said:And Eichel's contract looks bad compared to Bergeron and Scheifele. Sometimes teams get lucky on long term deals.
Seth Jones probably isn't available and if he was you'd be giving up Reinhart, a 1st, plus whatever else to get him. I'm sure the next contract for Jones will go up significantly as well. On a team that has been littered with bad contracts over the years (currently Okposo, Bogosian, Sobotka, and recently Pominville and Moulson) Ristolainen's contract is not the issue. I'd argue that he's one of the few players on this team not in ELC or RFA status that actually earns his paycheck.
A lot of the names on that list weren't lucky signings, though--players on that list are straight up better than Risto with a similar or lesser percentage of the cap at time of signing. Sure, Scheifele's contract is a better value than Eichel's, but they're at least comparable players.
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19 minutes ago, darksabre said:
The problem with trying to replace Risto in that #4 role is you're probably looking at someone like Alex Edler as a UFA, who you could lose to the expansion draft in 2021 because you'd probably have to leave him unprotected just like you would have with Risto.
I guess you could trade Risto now just to get something for him, get Edler for about the same amount of money, and not feel bad about it if Seattle takes him later?Well, I think you can probably attach a boat anchor to Dahlin and he'll be able to make it work, even this early in his career. Without looking at a Risto replacement, my lineup would look something like this:
Dahlin-XXX | Pilut-Montour | McCabe-Nelson
The list of UFA's isn't great, but I bet you could get a Stralman on a reasonable contract to plug in..figure if you take the working parts of his and Bogosian's bodies, you could create a frankenanchor to attach to Dahlin for a year.
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17 minutes ago, Drunkard said:
His contract is great. I wish it had 3 or 4 more years of term on it. $5.4 million for a right handed defenseman in his prime that can be consistently be relied on to play 75+ games a season and put up 40+ points of offense on a team that has trouble scoring goals. Plus he doesn't bitch and moan despite the fact that every single coach he's had in Buffalo seems to treat him like he's Shea freaking Weber in his prime when he clearly isn't. Could you find a better defenseman than him? Sure you can, but you'll probably have to pay him close to double what Ristolainen earns right now.
Conversely, he also gives up oodles defensively for a team that has trouble preventing goals against.
Seth Jones signed the exact same contract Risto did, in the same year. He's a lot better. In fact, the list of comparable contracts has quite a few defensemen I would take over Risto: https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/rasmus-ristolainen-7362
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4 minutes ago, LTS said:
I took one thing from a WGR quote...
So, you can have a disappointing season and choose to look at the bright side as opposed to wallow about your love of the game? Interesting.
You could also choose to ignore all the fluff and focus on the substance of how effective players are on the ice.
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13 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Pilut has 1 goal and six points in his NHL career.
Risto is something like the 20th highest scoring defenceman in the entire NHL over the past 4 years.
I wish Risto used his teammates better offensively, but I don’t understand why his production basically gets ignored by so many people.
It doesn't get ignored, it's just that total points by a defensemen is a tough stat to evaluate (special teams time, total ice time, etc.). Also, most Risto defenders don't point to his offense as what he brings...they'll say he handles the tough minutes, protects the front of the net, etc etc etc.
There were 100 defensemen in 2018-19 with at least 1000 minutes played at even strength. Of those 100, Risto ranks 41st in points/60 minutes. Deconstructing that a little bit, he's 63rd in goals/60, 36th in primary assists/60, and 31st in secondary assists/60. Obviously, a couple assists or a goal off of a buttocks will skew these things, so I'd be careful with any kind of what-if anlaysis getting too specific. I think the picture as a whole says he produces even strength points at the rate of a #2 defenseman.
Of course, the absolute value of this offense needs to be balanced against his defensive liabilities, which are pretty significant. I don't have time to do a full defensive breakdown of his stats, but my read on Risto is ultimately the following: I think he's best suited in a #4/5 role with power play time on a good team. Hide him as best you can defensively and let him score some points. Particularly since we have Dahlin to give the bulk of the PP work to, I don't think that's worth $5.4M AND I think you can probably find a GM who thinks like you (and others) that he's more valuable than this assessment, making for a nice trade piece. I defended Risto for a long time and believed he would develop, but at this point in his career I have accepted he's never going to be a top-pair Dman or the best Dman on the #2 pairing for a team with serious hopes of contending on the regular.
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2 minutes ago, darksabre said:
I guess the way I look at it is this:
If we assume that most of Risto's ice time is coming against his toughest opposition and starting in the defensive zone, then his Corsi numbers indicate that he's not very good at that deployment.
The highest average TOI he ever had in a season was during the year where his usage was flipped to have more o zone deployments than d zone deployments. As a result his mediocre CF% did improve. Why? Because a larger percentage of his overall icetime was coming against easier opponents in more favorable deployments. He was still drawing the tough work, but he was able, for that one season, to masque it with some productive easier work.
Basically, all signs point to Risto in the role of top line defender being a bad usage for him if you want him to be productive. He needs more favorable ice time against weaker competition.And at that point, do you want to pay him $5.4M? I can find guys who need protection for less money. Moreover, if some GM out there thinks Risto is anything more than what he is, then the return could easily be better than keeping him, completely independent of his contract.
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9 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:
If you can bundle Scandella in a deal with Rasmus, buyout Vlad and bury Hunwick you just found $12.4 million. I think the Callahan/Miller trade is going to happen. But I still have confidence another top 6 is coming. Zucker or someone who hasn’t been rumored. I also think a mid level UFA defenseman is added if Rasmus is traded.
Well, it's more like $11.4M since you can only bury a hair under $1M of a salary in the AHL. Anyway, there's no way that we're finding a taker for both Risto and Scandella without taking back money.
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2 hours ago, darksabre said:
I don't think he actually does those things very well.
I see him being clumsy, especially when it comes to handling the puck in tight spaces. He's shockingly bad at handling aggressive forecheckers.
He also tends to wander/chase which confuses his teammates and screws up zone exits. Not to mention that he's slow in pursuit, so he struggles to catch the players he's chasing.
Every time an opponent gains the zone (which they will, because he doesn't defend the blue line very well), he basically has one chance to make a play to get the puck and clear the zone. If he fails at that chance, then expect to be spending a bunch of time in your own end.
I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.You complete me.
2 hours ago, Doohickie said:Risto will be RFK's first project. If he can coach him out of his bad habits that will bode will for the team, especially the defense.
I honestly don't expect RFK is going to have an opportunity to work with Risto.
1 hour ago, darksabre said:If you want to get weird, Lawrence Pilut in 33 games with similar zone start % to Risto and Chara, but with less TOI, had Chara-esque Corsi numbers.
I'm trying to think of a player that gets as much ice time as Risto but has such bad Corsi numbers. I really don't know.I'm tellin' ya: Dion Phaneuf.
1 hour ago, WildCard said:To me that doesn't even matter. My question is, can we make him better/good? It's pretty clear that, however he got there, he's not good right now. Do we want to stick with that and see if we can change him, or just let someone else figure it out
Risto has 424 NHL games played and makes $5.4M. It's time to let somebody else be disappointed.
59 minutes ago, dudacek said:How many of you are to the point where you get tense when watching Risto defend, thinking he's going to ***** something up?
It's hard for me to believe anyone isn't at this point.
Separately, a quick point on player usage: Yes, Risto has a really high percentage of "defensive zone starts" (just shy of 56%), but it's important to add some context to that particular statistic--it's simply a ratio of non-neutral zone shift starts that began with a faceoff. So yes, Housley put Risto out to start his shift in the defensive zone more than to start his shift in the offensive zone, but these are a pretty small minority of all shift starts. Risto had 1624 shifts in 2018-19. The breakdown is below:
--Offensive zone: 203
--Defensive zone: 256
--Neutral zone: 303
--On-the-fly: 862
TLDR: Let's not get carried away with how much the zone start statistic can explain his poor metrics. About 84% of the time Risto is stepping onto the ice in a situation other than the defensive zone. I think this supports the idea that the quality of his own play has a lot more to do with how he gets trapped in his own end than anything the coach does.
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4 hours ago, inkman said:
They are brimming with talent. If we need to take on Callahan to get Miller (Point!?!), Make it happen.
There is no world in which we should have to take on Callahan to get Miller unless the only thing we're sending their way is a 7th round pick. I want Miller, and in many ways I think he's an ideal acquisition...but acquiring Callahan basically prevents us from adding another top-6 player this season.
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7 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:
This is it. Nelson performed better when used as a part-time 3rd pair D than Risto did when used like one of the top-10 D in the entire league. The difference in their usage is so vast that it makes comparing their Corsi numbers almost completely irrelevant. And I don’t even like a Risto very much.
Well, that's not entirely true. All of the evidence I'm familiar with suggests player usage has only a mild effect on things like corsi.
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Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors
in The Aud Club
Posted
Will he score 37 again? While spending most of his time centered by Mittelstadt instead of Matthews? Cmon man.