[2019 Free Agency Thread (Non-Sabres)]

23 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If Friedman is right and the Leafs are willing to pay him $11M per on an 8 year deal than they’ll match any offer sheet he gets on a shorter deal. So safe to say Marner isn’t going anywhere and it’s just a game of cat and mouse.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I don't think he's going anywhere. I just want to see some team screw them on the cap. 

23 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I want to believe in a world where Botts somehow manages to clear enough cap space to offer sheet Marner, turning the Toronto media into an inferno of spite.

We have enough space, he just won't do it. 

[2019 Free Agency Thread (Non-Sabres)]

1 minute ago, GoPre said:

 

Friedman says the Leafs have told Mitch Marner if he wants the big number ($11M AAV) he needs to sign for 8 years, Marner's camp is not prepared to do that.

I want to believe in an offer sheet. I really do. I just can't get past the million other opportunities GMs have had to use them and chosen not to. 

[2018 NHL Award Winners]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

I seriously read more bitching than praise from Tampa fans all winter

Which I don't understand. He wasn't the best goalie in the league, but he did have a very good season. I guess they needed *something* to complain about while cruising to 120 points? 

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I can't help it, I see him in my dreams 

I'm not going to cry about missing out on JT Miller in that situation is all. Believe in RistoPilut 

But yeah, that's why I'm so intrigued to see how far teams would go for him. It hurts nobody to call and check, and I assume Jason is doing that, though I have varying degrees of confidence in assuming Jason is doing things good GMs do

I'll only cry about missing out on Miller if Mittelstadt is our 2C again.

[2018 NHL Award Winners]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

John Gibson was the best NHL netminder this season and got zero first or second place votes, and one third place votes

Nobody actually watches hockey i guess

Winssssszzzzzsssszzzzzz baby! Players on bad teams don't get to be considered for individual awards. Just the way it is. 

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

29 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It is likely the case that desperate people in charge of hockey teams think Ristolainen is currently as stands a top pairing player

JT Miller is irritatingly ambiguous - a stop gap and long term solution simultaneously, when I think I could find a better player firmly established as one or the other (Stastny, Cirelli (yes Cirelli is my offseason theme this year))

Risto and Pilut didn't just do well together by chance - they fit each other's weaknesses like a glove, and it produced tangible results to my own eyeballs, to NHL.com's counting stats, and to Micah's linear regression. I have no qualms trying that again for a while. The guy was a  minus five billion this year, his value isn't going to change all that much to the GMs that are going to trade for him, and I don't think he could get much worse in the eyes of the people who don't like him, so we can always just do this again in a couple months if JT Miller by himself is the best we can do right now

My rewatching of Sabres games so far this offseason has really muddled things up for me w.r.t. Risto

I don't really like JT Miller in a vacuum and it's too painful to think of how many assets on that same team I adore




 

Way to set yourself up for disappointment with the Cirelli obsession ?

One thing I really disagree with is the notion that Risto's value won't drop much. First, the market conditions are perfect for a Risto trade and irrespective of what he does on the ice, I doubt we see such an ideal market again. Second, if he goes to coach #3 post-tank and has different usage but  is still the same guy with the same issues, analytics or eye test, I think that will reduce his value by a non-trivial amount. 

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

49 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Risto is what he is. I find value in what he is,... others don’t. That’s fine.

The funny thing is, he isn’t remotely what’s been wrong with this team.

 

But, carry on. 

Yea, I mean I have no problem disagreeing over what he is. I just think those who expect him to suddenly start producing positive shot metrics are out to lunch. 

16 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

With rumblings that Myers and WPG are talking extension, Ristolainen is like the only RHD of note "available." 

The cap being lower than expected is at least a little alarming to some teams.

Tampa still needs two RHD, and fun teams like Columbus are supposedly interested.

I certainly would never decide "I'm trading Ristolainen" or "I'm keeping Ristolainen" and you should never, ever do that with any asset you have.

But I'd pay a lot of money out of my own pocket just to hear what kinds of things GMs would put together for him.

If you're getting packages built around Virtanen or even a player as good as JT Miller, then just say no thanks and let Krueger watch film of Ristolainen and Pilut yin-yanging each other

If you can build up something and fix a key spot for ten years, take a bunch of salary to yoink Cirelli out of Tampa, then let's goooooooooooooooo



 

You really wouldn't do Risto for Miller? Before you went on hiatus you were regularly crushing Risto. What changed? 

[Around the NHL Summer 2019]

5 minutes ago, Hoss said:

It predictably went to Vasilevsky which makes no sense... at all.

Wins baby!!!!! 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

Just now, WildCard said:

Virtanen?

Womp womp. He's done nothing in 210 NHL games that interests me.

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

17 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Legit question.  Do we actually have any examples of players who pretty consistently put up bad shot metrics (Corsi) for years, they either moved to another team or had a significant change in usage that led to them then putting up consistently better shot metrics?

What precedent is there for this thing that some people claim would happen with Risto?

Not that I'm aware of. Jack Johnson, for example, has been on teams of varying quality but puts up remarkably consistent (and poor) shot metrics.

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

2 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Of the 31 defensemen who occupy their respective teams fourth spot, where would Risto rank?

Want to list every team's 4th best defenseman for me? Because I'm not doing that legwork. If you do, I'll happily rank them.

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

1 minute ago, rakish said:

Who's talking about Time on Ice? you're measuring your first pair by how much time on ice? The only reasonable stat is the power play time of your opponents, using that metric, Hedman played second pair, Burns played second pair. As Wildcard pointed out above, zone starts are an OK metric, Burns got good zone starts.

Why? And zone starts are a deeply flawed metric because the overwhelming majority of shifts start on the fly in the neutral zone. 

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

3 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Would Risto perform better or worse on a team if he were the team’s fourth defensemen?

The research that's been done on player usage would suggest he'd perform mostly the same.

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

2 minutes ago, rakish said:

Hedman played second line minutes this year, while in previous years he has played first line minutes. Burns played second line minutes. Laughable? thank you, I'm here all week.

There's a pretty significant difference between not playing the most minutes and playing sheltered minutes. Neither Hedman nor Burns played sheltered minutes. And the years they led their teams in ice time and strength of competition? They were still fantastic. 

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

Just now, #freejame said:

Because Lindholm is better than Risto? So are other top four defensemen. That doesn’t mean Risto isn’t a top four defensemen. Not to mention, someone posted Risto’s numbers over a 32 game stretch last year and they are the kind that anyone here would love. Why is it hard to believe that isn’t a sign of poor usage?

Because he's played 425 games in his career, so taking a 32 game sample is kind of nuts? Actually, a 32 game sample from any player is nuts, so that's not unique to Risto, it's just a bad argument.

[Risto said it's time for him to go?]

On the left we have Rasmus Ristolainen. On the right we have what his fans believe he'll be when he's in a better situation and role. The caveat is that Lindholm's usage was very similar to Risto's, he's the same age, and his team was also hot garbage. Why can Lindholm overcome these things and Risto sinks? 

 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

What are you moving from 7 to 10 for? 

I have no problem moving back, but Vancouver is such an unappealing trade partner. Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser, or Hughes? Sign me up. But that's obviously not happening and they've got nothing else even remotely interesting. 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

5 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Slot him where he belongs and see what happens.

The problem is if you do this and he proves to be the same guy, his trade value gets nuked. 

[How Would You Fix the Sabres?]

I know a few trades/signings have happened so I have a leg up on ideas, but here's my plan.

Trades

Ristolainen for Ehlers, straight up. We get the top-6 winger we still need, add a major dose of speed up front, and Winnipeg gets the RHD they need in a money-in-money-out deal (for all intents and purposes).

Nelson and #31 for Miller and Callahan. We get our 2C, they get the cap space they need and some RHD help they desperately need.

Scandella to Vancouver for a 5th. We get some cap relief, and Vancouver gets another bad defensemen they seem to love collecting. More seriously, they could view him as an Edler replacement without a long-term commitment. 

Free Agency

Sign Donskoi for middle-6. $4Mx5. Overpay, but such is life.

Sign Stralman for short-term Risto replacement. $4.5Mx3. Overpay for a defensive defenseman, but such is life.

Re-sign McCabe $2.5Mx4, Girgensons or Larsson $1.5Mx1, and Rodrigues $2.5Mx4.

Other

Bury Sobotka in the AHL or loan him to Europe

Bury Hunwick and Wilson.

Final Product

Skinner-Eichel-Donskoi                                                   Dahlin-Stralman

Ehlers-Miller-Reinhart                                                      Pilut-Montour

Sheary-Mittelstadt-Rodrigues                                        McCabe-Bogosian

Callahan-Girgensons/Larsson-Okposo

Team has about a million in cap space, a completely overhauled top-6, and a non-reliance on Bogosian to play a major defensive role. Obvious spots for competition on the 4th line for a young player or two to do well.

[2019 Free Agency Thread (Non-Sabres)]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

At least the second 2 are overpaid. 

Such is life in unrestricted free agency. 

[Around the NHL Summer 2019]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I'm not ridiculing her as much as the idea that she's qualified to be on the council (or be president of professional sports franchises for that matter). The fact that her appointment excludes qualified minority women is the irony of ironies.

Against my better judgment, I'm going to engage in a conversation where I have zero hope of changing an opinion. Whatever you may think of how Kim Pegula came to her position, she has now been in a leadership position in a major sports organization (PSE) for years. She has a demographic profile that is incredibly rare at the executive level in any billion dollar industry, to say nothing of professional sports. I think she's quite well qualified for this role.

[2019 Free Agency Thread (Non-Sabres)]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

I don't think that's too bad money wise for a guy who is a little older than Risto and better defensively.

I agree with Brawndo that the fit with Vigneault might not be great, but otherwise yea, it's basically market value. In a market where Evander Kane is a $7M player, Skinner is a $9M player, it makes sense to me that a 2C slots in at around $7M. 

[2019 Summer Trade Thread (Non-Sabres)]

54 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I like him as a fit for what Buffalo needs right now.  Can be an ok 2nd line C.  If Mitts pushes him down, he would be a very good 3rd C. If there is someone else to play 3rd C, he could also play wing on any of the top 3 lines, LW or RW.  A very versatile player.  Signed for 4 more seasons, ages 26-29.  In his 4 full NHL seasons, he has 43, 56, 58, 47 points and 22, 22, 23, 13 goals.  

 

He didn’t have 5 straight 20 goal seasons, just 3 (his first 3 full NHL seasons) but I agree with everything else.  Bring him in!

Yikes. You know it's been a long couple of days when you can't read a Hockey-Reference page properly. No clue how I managed that ?

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

Pride man.  You screw over a billionaire and you're done.  Terry has blown money on worse (ex-coaches).  You only do that out of spite.  

This is where we disagree I guess.

Well then, you have a lot more faith in the acumen of a GM who has iced two consecutive terrible teams while actually trying to win. Putting aside the ROR trade as a whole, Botterill's record as GM suggests he's bad at his job. Maybe it's been a string of bad luck and circumstances out of his control, but I certainly don't see any reason to just trust him. 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

Just now, Derrico said:

Last comment on ROR but I think it’s more than just plausible ownership told Botts to trade ROR.  Why wouldn’t he wait until after the bonus was paid to make a trade?  It was reported Carolina had a good offer but only if it was after the roster bonus.  Why would botts trade him right before?

I have no problem believing ownership told him to trade him before the bonus. I have a significant problem with just assuming it was ownership's idea to trade him in the first place. I think it's at least equally likely that Botterill wanted to move him and only then did the Pegulas give him the bonus deadline.