TrueBlueGED
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Posts posted by TrueBlueGED
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9 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
Short version, in English: Triumph blames Mittelstadt's performance on everyone but Mittelstadt. I think he stunk last year in his own right.
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5 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
Okposo+Thompson, similar drags
The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it. The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams. When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt. When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.
But he has, and he's been a drag on those players. He had 426 minutes with Sheary, 162 with Rodrigues, 152 with Reinhart, and 119 with Skinner. All of them had worse corsi, goals, and xG while skating with Mittelstadt. Obviously some of that is Skinner and Reinhart got to skate with Jack, but neither Rodrigues nor Sheary spent so much time with Jack as to pump their numbers much.
Again, like with Thompson and Sobotka, these things are not mutually exclusive. Okposo can be a drag and Casey can be bad in his own right. After all, a team doesn't finish 5th from the basement if they only have 1 or 2 problem players.
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6 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf
Pages 34-37
A snippet:
i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other.
Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games. As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics.
The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low.
If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created. Read the links above.
We might be talking past each other. I don't think you're drawing the proper inference from what the authors are saying with respect to how it would apply to Casey's numbers and my comment about using a 68 minute subsample to evaluate him, or you're misinterpreting what I was getting at. The Sedins have a ton of error when trying to isolate because they spend 90% of their ice time together, so there isn't enough time apart to do the work with any accuracy. That all makes sense, but it's not what I was arguing about.
You presented a 68 minute subsample of Casey's career under the pretense that it was a better representation of his on-ice impact than the full sample, because the full sample includes so much time with Okposo that he's statistically indistinguishable from Okposo. I disagree with that because, as others have noted, the majority of his ice time has come with players not named Okposo. So I don't think that introduced the same collinearity problem of the Sedins. It's also worth noting that about 30% of his ice time in 2017-18 was spent with Okposo. Or, only about 7 points less than in 2018-19. If the model screwed him because of his time with Okposo, one would think it would've happened both seasons.
Which brings me to my larger point, which I was trying to argue in the first place. Mittelstadt has 952 minutes of ice time at even strength. You're trying to draw conclusions with 7.1% of that, while chucking the rest of the data because of Okposo, when Okposo was relevant to less than 40% of it (a huge difference from the Sedins' 90%+ shared ice time). That's weak, both statistically and theoretically. There is no way you're going to statistically distinguish that small of a subsample from the rest of his ice time with any confidence that the difference in results was anything other than happenstance.
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9 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise!
Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots:
People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.
It's not a narrative that Casey was bad this reason. It's just the harsh reality. As to the charts...a regression with a sample of 68 minutes, such as the one you just posted, is almost certainly useless. I can't be 100% sure without seeing the full model, but I'd bet my life savings that such a model has a p-value around 3 million and a confidence interval that includes the entire range of outcomes.
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2 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:
So there is a chance TT gets better or does Casey just stink.
My eye test saw Casey do more promising things this season than Thompson, but neither was an NHL player by metrics or eyes. I have more hope for Casey because he's a year younger and his problems were more of the physically not ready variety than the mentally clueless variety. But really, I'd feel infinitely better about both of them if I could erase the 2018-19 season from my memory. They were both really bad on the whole.
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9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
You should compare Mitts to Thompson. Id be curious to see what that looks like.
8 minutes ago, WildCard said:By the way, as far as 'insiders' and the rumors pointing to Botterill's moves, not a single person saw this coming
Please don't
Sorry, WildCard. I hope you're sitting down.
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17 minutes ago, LTS said:
Actually, I don't. It sounds like you are saying that you understand there are reasons. other than winning, that decisions might be made but then choose to ignore them because you only want to analyze it against winning. What's the point of your analysis if it doesn't speak to what the Sabres are trying to do and rather speaks to something they are not trying to do?
But the problem with this view is it assumes we know what the Sabres are trying to do in each instance. We don't.
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I have a conceptual question which I'm not even sure how I feel about. If you can get a legit top-6 winger for Risto, but only a middle-6 center, which trade do you make?
Just to put names to the question, I think I'd rather trade Risto for Ehlers than for Tyler Johnson, even though Johnson clearly fills the bigger hole in the lineup.
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2 minutes ago, SwampD said:
Charts are annoying. Especially for prospects. Stats are a result, not a reason.
So unless your stats are good right out of the gate, you are never going to make it in the NHL and we should just write them off. Gottit.
My posts have all been present tense for a reason. Thompson is bad. He doesn't have to stay that way. I'd bet he does, but it's not a given.
That said, young players who go on to be good usually do show signs of life in the underlying metrics before their traditional metrics and reputation catch up.
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9 hours ago, dudacek said:
The Florida talk got me thinking of Trochek. There’s an ideal player for us.
Isn’t all that Florida stuff predicated on them signing Marner?
If we managed Risto for Trochek, I'd never mention that ROR trade again (though I promise to continue telling everyone how bad Thompson is until he isn't). That would be perfect.
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6 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
You mean, where he also played with Sobotka and Berglund, lol?
How much ice time did they actually have together in St. Louis.
Anyway, know who else had significant ice time with Sobotka this season? Rodrigues and Pominville's corpse. Know whose metrics weren't utterly destroyed by it? Rodrigues and Pominville's corpse. Why? Because they're not also bad hockey players.
Sobotka is/was horrible and certainly dragged his linemates down, there's no disputing that. He should never see NHL ice again. But Thompson was also bad and dragged his linemates down. These things are not mutually exclusive.
2 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:12 assists in 38 games for a rookie. That's pretty good, really.
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4 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
Girgensons never played with Sobotka. You aren't factoring in the Off_GF Off_xG Off_CF black hole that Sobotka had on everyone he blessed his minutes with. The guy refused to sustain a forecheck and gave up the offensive zone before his teammates would even lose possession.
Did you ignore the chart from my previous post showing Thompson also sucked in St. Louis?
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4 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
Tage has also always played with anchor teammates. He only had a couple shifts on a line without a Sobotka, 4th line, etc, scenario.
That's not entirely true. He had a chance with better players and immediately pooped his pants. But this gets back to my question about comparing to other players. Know who else was saddled? Much-maligned Zemgus Girgensons. Know who played considerably better than Thompson? You guessed it, big Z!
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Edit: NHL hockey players don't have to be good at everything, but they have to be good at something. Tage is bad at everything.
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8 hours ago, nfreeman said:
Flagg wildly overstates TT’s struggles with his usual mix of a few small-sample fancystats and brazen certainty.
TT was in over his head on a crappy team and made mistakes, while still hustling and displaying a number of very nice tools. Nylander was mediocre in the AHL, evinced zero urgency in his game and made a handful of non-terrible plays during garbage time.
Charity bet on who has a better season next year as between TT and Nylander?
Which, I may say, is considerably more than you have done for your side of the argument. Yes, Thompson's shot is hard...but unlike in real life, weapons of mass destruction in the NHL have to hit their target to matter. Alexei Zhitnik's point shot had a considerably better hit rate than Tage's one timers. Tage's top speed is fine, but he isn't quick, and his edge work is deplorable.
8 hours ago, Derrico said:@Randall Flagg you just hate anybody and anything that has to do with the ROR trade. It’s shocking to me anyone thinks Nylander is a better prospect than TT. This has much more to do with nylander than how confident I am in what TT will become.
In their short time in the NHL, both this season and the one before, Nylander has shown more. That's not to say he's shown a lot, but Thompson has legitimately been closer to washed-up Sobotka bad than a promising young player.
Seriously, Thompson has been all-caps BAD:
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I've posted this before, but it's worth re-posting to emphasize how bad Thompson has been as an NHL player, both here and in St. Louis.
Honest question: would it be helpful to frame it as Thompson vs NHL players rather than Thompson vs Nylander? I really don't care if anyone questions Nylander, but nobody should think Thompson has been anything other than a disaster as an NHL player.
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22 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
Is Vancouver less likely of a trade partner now that they've signed Myers? They have Myers, Tanev, Stecher down the right side. Obviously not ideal, but Risto doesn't make it better in a meaningful way (he's not going to drag their defense from not-playoff-caliber to playoff-caliber by himself)
Good, they were a terrible trade partner anyway.
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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Analysis of the deal from the Athletic, courtesy Corey Pronman
For those without a subscription, the gist:
“Between the two players, Nylander is the more talented by a moderate amount. However, I think Jokiharju is the slightly better player.
Public reaction I saw in the social media sphere shortly after the trade seems to think this is a massively one-sided trade. It isn’t.
As one executive put it after the trade, while agreeing that Nylander is more talented, “he hasn’t got it done yet, and you wonder if he ever will.” In contrast, Jokiharju has looked better as a pro at age 19 than Nylander has at age 20 (or when he was 19, as well).”p
This is fair. I think Nylander has a clearly higher ceiling, but there's also a reasonable chance he's a complete washout. Jokiharju is much more likely to be a long term NHL contributor.
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10 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:
I guess the choice could be to take $1mil to play for a team that was a cup contender last season or make $5mil for a bottom tier team that will be lucky to make the playoffs?
Teams aren't going to make RFA offers to guys that aren't potentially elite players.giving up assets to have to sign a FA isn't a favorable thing for many GMs. The teams with higher picks they would be willing to move are typically playoff teams with little cap space. The ones with cap space are typically the lower teams risking losing more valuable better picks.
But they should. An offer sheet for a Labanc level player is infinitely more likely to work than trying to poach an elite player, while simultaneously giving you a better player than you're likely to get outside of a really high draft pick.
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20 minutes ago, freester said:
I would take Lucic if they would take Okposo.
Why? Okposo is better
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5 minutes ago, jsb said:
Yes but I think he's trying to build the roster depth and make the big splash when he has a boatload of cash to spend next offseason. As long as he doesn't take on too much salary in whatever moves he has yet to make this year. You have to believe he's overstocked in some areas and hopefully what comes back improves the roster enough to get us watching them until at least March/early April with some interest.
I continue to not fully buy into the idea that he needs a lot of spare cash to make a big move. It's not like money-in-money-out deals are unheard of. As was said elsewhere, he currently has more NHL bodies than NHL roster spots. Something is going to give. And it's entirely possible he can move Scandella and boom, suddenly we have cap space to est a bad contract for a year.
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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
It's tampa, and we're getting Cirelli baby
You spell Tyler Johnson weirdly.
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14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
I agree he has no faith in either of them (and why would he?). This Jokiharju deal hints to me that Bogo is headed to IR.
This creates a D of
Dahlin Montour
McCabe Risto
Scandella Miller
Hunwick Nelson
with first call ups as Pilut (when healthy), Gilmour (If Pilut isn’t healthy) and Jokiharju.
I think the plan might very well be see how Mitts does as 2C and if he falters, move Risto mid-season for a 2C. This assumes Jokiharju proves NHL ready. If Mitts succeeds, Risto gets moved for a winger or goaltender (if UPL isn’t ready).
This Sabres team is very deep, easily cap compliant and has a great trade chip that is expendable in Risto. Risto has excellent value, but Jbot has no need to trade him unless he gets an incredible offer.
We don't know this to be true around the league, and as a fanbase there's obviously a lot of disagreement over how true it is on the ice.
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6 minutes ago, mphs mike said:
One thing Botterill has shown is that the ROR disaster hasn't made him gun shy in remaking the roster. That, I view, as a good sign.
Maybe. So far, though I have liked his offseason, all he's done is make a series of low-risk moves.
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Just now, inkman said:
I suppose. Can you trade an RFA? Hate to just let him walk.
Yea, you can trade his rights. I don't think there's any way Botterill would just let him walk unless arbitration gives him something nutty like $5M. Which for a guy who doesn't produce offense isn't going to happen.
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Just now, inkman said:
A cost controlled capable left handed D. Why do we want him gone?
Well, we don't know what his contract ask has been. Maybe Botterill is looking at a figure he doesn't like for a 3rd pairing Dman.
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Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by TrueBlueGED
Is this a good time to remind everyone that the impact of sheltering is vastly overstated? The only way to truly shelter players is to minimize even strength minutes entirely and pump up power play time. Otherwise, everybody plays everybody, and the actual difference between the hard match ups and the easy match ups is marginal.
Edit: put differently, matchups don't dictate a player's performance. It can nudge it, sure, but if player X performs poorly in Y role, they'll probably also perform poorly in Z role. Maybe less poorly with less of an overall impact on the team, but poorly nonetheless.